Thursday, July 31, 2008

Friday Tennis

At least one sport is making money. Just one for Friday:

P. Kohlschreiber +160 (WSEX) over I. Karlovic, 0.50 units to win 0.80 units

Hoping for a giant-sized letdown from the big-serving big man.

Thursday Night Baseball

It's kind of a strange baseball handicapping day. First, there's nothing at the 70% consensus line at Wagerline. The closest thing is Texas at about 68% facing Seattle, and I have weird hangups about playing games involved knuckleballers, as this one does. They give me the willies. Plus with the trading deadline today, you don't really know how the lineups and bullpens will look until the end of the day. So just one play tonight:

Washington Nationals +115 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.15 units.

Public likes the Phillies and Kendrick at about a two to one clip. And I hate myself. Put the two together and you've got me doubling down with an emotional and financial stake in John Lannan and the Nats tonight. Just kill me now.

World Golf Value Pick of the Week

Both The Greek and WSEX have tournament head-to-head lines listed for Robert Karlsson vs. Henrik Stenson. I've spent some time this morning looking at both guys, and for the life of my I can't separate them. Stenson has a slightly better "resume," if you will, and a higher world ranking. Karlsson is ahead of him in the Order of Merit (Karlsson 3rd, Stenson 6th), although that may be a product of having played three more tournaments in 2008. However, Karlsson's results over the last six tournaments are impressive, to say the least. Stenson's been good, but Karlsson is red-hot. Five out of the six were top-tens (two majors in that mix), and the only finish outside the top-ten was 13th. Stenson was about five shots better than Karlsson last year at Firestone, which I guess kind of balances it. Like I said, tough to separate.

The Greek has Karlsson at -105 and Stenson at -115. Looks about right.

WSEX has Karlsson at +115 and Stenson at -140. Ahem. You know what to do. They tee off at 12:15 ET. Get to it.

Robert Karlsson over Henrik Stenson +115 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.15 units.

Screw Baseball, How About Some Tennis?

The most frustrating baseball season I can remember. Just awful. Two tennis matches today from Cincinnati. In the first, I think the match should be closer than the line would imply (like Andreev/Stepanek a couple of days ago). In the second, well, you can almost always count on Blake to get beat a couple of rounds earlier than he should.

P. Kohlschreiber +160 (WSEX) over R. Soderling, 0.50 units to win 0.80 units

E. Gulbis +152 (Matchbook) over J. Blake, 0.50 units to win 0.76 units

Successful day if I can get just one of these.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Wednesday Baseball

Four games for today, including one in the afternoon. All lines from Matchbook:

Bluejays +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

The AAA numbers on this Richmond kid look like he could be a really good one. Edwin Jackson is what he is, a back of the rotation kind of guy. Rays not hitting well lately, so a good chance for the home team today.

Mariners +172, 1 unit to win 1.72 units

Somebody has to win this pitching crap-fest. In a game that could end up with a final score of 16-14, we're happy to get a dog of this size on either side.

Nationals +124, 1 unit to win 1.24 units

It takes balls to back the Nats these days, but that's the play today. Moyer and Redding have eerily similar stats, but it seems like the Phillies should have been much bigger favorites in this game. The sportsbooks aren't in the habit of handing out gifts, so it looks very suspicious. I'm sure the Phillies will get a lot of public love.

Padres +128, 1 unit to win 1.28 units

Another line that looks bizarre. Shouldn't Haren be a much bigger favorite tonight? Baek is pretty decent, but still, something's up here. We'll take the home dog.

Good luck today everybody. College football lines are starting to pop up around the books.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Tuesday Tennis

One for tonight:

I. Andreev +155 (Bookmaker) over R. Stepanek, 0.50 units to win 0.77 units

A rare chance to use the Bookmaker account I ended up with when CRIS stopped liking Americans.

The Light at the End of the Tunnel

The title refers not only to the fact that we're closing on on a positive number for the baseball season, but also to the fact that football season, the most glorious of all American sports seasons, is right around the corner. Many thanks to the sellouts at the International Olympic Committee, who decided to start marquee Olympic events at 8 AM Beijing time so us east coast American fatcats could watch them in prime time. Your corporate whoring will make the wait for football season a little more tolerable.

I'm making these picks early because I'm anticipating a busy afternoon in my other life as a desk jockey. Since we're going against the public in all of these, feel free to wait and see if you can get a better number later in the day if you wish:

Baltimore Orioles +161 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.61 units.

Why are the Orioles getting a higher number facing Rasner today than they were facing Mussina yesterday? The disparity between yesterday's O's starter (Guthrie) and today's starter (Cabrera) isn't big enough to explain it. There's only two explanations: (1) someone knows something we don't; or (2) idiot Yankee fans and ESPN-watchers are driving up the line because they just don't think there's any way the NEW YORK YANKEES could possibly lose two in a row to the lowly Orioles. With 70% of the public on the Yankees, we're willing to bet it's the latter.

Chicago White Sox +120 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.2 units.

We like Clayton Richard, who performed exceptionally well in the minors this year. I remain completely unconvinced by Glen Perkins, tonight's Twins starter, who has been respectable but nothing special, and whose 7-3 record and even 4.08 ERA are a tad misleading. Now, if they had recalled Francisco Liriano to start this game, I wouldn't touch it with a ten-foot pole. Thankfully, the Twins are showing amazing incompetence when it comes to Liriano. Git while the gittin's good, as they say in Hambone country.

San Francisco Giants +116 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.16 units.

I [heart] Matt Cain. Also, 69% of public on the Dodgers, but I don't see much if any line movement based on Matchbook and other numbers, if you care about that sort of thing. I don't, though, because I love me some Cain and will not listen to anyone who dares to question his amazing talent. One day he will align the planets and bring about world peace.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Continuing the Comeback

(Cue "Eye of the Tiger" music) Slowly working our way back from the depths recently. Four for Monday night, all lines from Matchbook:

Orioles +151, 1 unit to win 1.51 units

This game is way too close to a coin-flip to be getting a number like this. Mussina has been killing us (and helping my fantasy team) lately, but if it's the right play, it's the right play.

Rays +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Better pitcher on the better team as a slight underdog. Sounds good to us.

Twins -110, 1.10 units to win 1 unit

Buehrle has the bigger name, but Slowey has been slightly better over the course of the season. Buehrle gets hit pretty hard tonight.

Giants +181, 1 unit to win 1.81 units

With the Dodgers injuries and lack of hitting, they should not be laying this kind of number against a little league team. 73% of wagerline disagrees with us, which makes me like it even more.

Good luck tonight everybody.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Three Before the Break

WNBA takes a month-long Olympic break after today's games, so unfortunately for all you big fans out there, these will be the last plays for a while. All lines from WSEX and all plays for 0.55 units to win 0.50 units:

Atlanta +6

San Antonio +2

Sacramento +5.5

That's all, folks. No more until the end of August.

Sunday Afternoon

Good day for us yesterday. Hopefully we can make it a good weekend. No time for writeups this AM, but most of these are plays we've explained before (Braves undervalued on road, opposing public when 70%+ is on one side, etc.)

Atlanta Braves +136 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.36 units.

Houston Astros +152 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.52 units.

San Francisco Giants +136 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.36 units.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Three for Saturday Night

Three more we like this evening. It's been a good couple of days, hopefully we can keep it going:

Minnesota Twins +104 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.04 units.


Two great pitchers in this matchup. The one that has a good offense to support him and a good bullpen to back him up is getting the underdog money. The guy making his first start off the DL is the favorite. You do the math.


Chicago White Sox +145 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.45 units.


Our two AL games are very similar. Four good pitchers in these two games. In both cases, it appears that the pitcher who has shined in the playoff spotlight (Verlander here) is getting more love than may be warranted. Danks, like Baker for the Twins, is quietly putting together a very good season. Shhhh.


Houston Astros +164 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.63 units.

76% of the public is on the Brewers according to Wagerline. That's right, 76% on Dave Bush, he of the 1.2 HR/9 and a decent but not great K/BB ratio. Is he decent? Yeah, sure. He's a fine #3 or #4 starter. But -170? I think not. We'll back Backe here (See what I did there?). Hambone also seems to have a Backe thing that rivals my Cain obsession. It's kinda terrifying.

One Early Play

Can't find Grover this morning, but I think he would go along with this one (especially with 65% of wagerline on the other side):

Marlins +218 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2.18 units

I love Harden (he's on my fantasy team), and Volstad isn't as good as his surface numbers suggest, but at this number, I think this one is worth a flier. Volstad's minor league numbers are pretty good and the Cubs hasven't been hitting well enough lately to justify this line. The value is there, so I'm playing it.

Slight lean to the Yankees, but nothing else really jumps out at me in the afternoon games. Back later with tonight's card.

Saturday Tennis

I'm completely getting suckered into this one. Looks too good to be true, and Kiefer has already burned me in this tournament. But, here we go:

G. Simon +170 (Matchbook) over N. Kiefer, 0.50 units to win 0.85 units

Back with baseball later.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Friday Night

Thanks to fellow M.O.T. Ryan Braun for saving our day yesterday with his 9th inning heroics. Moving on...

Atlanta Braves +119 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 2.38 units.

I didn't clear the double-unit play with Hambone, but this website is supposed to reflect how we're really betting. Er, I mean, how we WOULD bet if internet gambling was unambiguously permitted in the United States. I can't speak for Hambone, but I'm doubling up on this one. That is, I WOULD double up on this one, if it were legal. Plus last time I made an unapproved two-unit play, it won, so I figure I'm 100% on them.

Jair Jurrjens isn't just the better pitcher here ... he's the far better pitcher. After adjusting for park factors, the Phillies offense about 50 runs better than the Braves on the season. And the Braves are without Chipper. But that small margin at the dish (about .5 runs/game) is not nearly enough to overcome the huge disparity in the pitching matchup. Atlanta opened at +104, and even that line probably factored in public's Philly bias. The public has since moved it to this level. We'll go the other way for two units.

Baltimore Orioles +125 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.22 units.

We're just gonna keep fading Saunders and the Angels until we're broke or they send us off to the loony bin or both. One of these days, his uppance will come. And when it does, Hambone and I will celebrate our wealth and genius and ignore the fact that we've lost fading him at least 7 times this season. Can't live in the past. Anyway, the line's not really moving despite public on Angels at better than 2 to 1. Sounds good to me.

Interesting note- it appears someone at BetUS hates the Orioles. Best prices on them are consistently at BetUS, despite the added juice.

Washington Nationals +182 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.82 units.

The Over/Under on this game is 7. Vegas expects a pitcher's duel, probably because Lannan and Billingsley are both good pitchers. That, to me, is the key- two good pitchers, two weak offenses. Sure, one pitcher is a little better, and one offense is a little better, but in a game where Vegas projects a median of 7 total runs, it seems odd to say that one team is almost twice as likely to win as the other team. Am I crazy? Please explain the error in my logic in the comments.

Friday Afternoon Baseball

Running short on time today. Here's the afternoon pick:

Marlins +163 (matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.63 units

Josh Johnson has looked pretty good since his return. We have a history of fading Dempster when possible, and with a number this big, we can't pass on another opportunity. A really nice spot for us today. Back later with a few for tonight.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

An Awful Pick From the Beach

At the coast for a conference this weekend, and I'm using my spare time to put together lame, square plays, starting with this one from the WNBA:

Indiana -5 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.50 units

This pick is terrible. I hate myself.

Thursday Night is Poker Night

Let's see if I can come up with some distractions after I fold my hands.

San Diego Padres +104 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.04 units.

On one side, we've got Clay Hensley. On the other, Yoslan Herrera. On the one side, we've got 40% of the public. On the other side, 60%. What say we put our money on the Hensley/40% side?

Milwaukee Brewers -120 (Matchbook), 1.2 units to win 1 unit.


Here we've got Ben Sheets going against a team and a player that are worse than advertised. Wellemeyer started hot but has been mediocre at best for the last month or two, so his decent ERA and other surface numbers are misleading. Same goes for the Cards: they're 57-46, but their third-order record (rounded) is 51-52. Rare chance to play an ace, which is good for our sanity.

Our New Hero




We picked the Chicago White Sox yesterday, and they rewarded our rare favorite play by coming from 3 runs down to beat the Texas Rangers, 10-8. A key play for us came with two men on and one out in the seventh for the Rangers. The Rangers ultimately plated two runs, but it could have been worse. Here's now it read on sportsline.com's gamecenter while I was at work:

Hank Blalock: Ball, Strike swinging, Blalock grounded out to second, Bradley to third, Byrd to second.

After visiting Deadspin just now, I discovered that explanation didn't quite do the play justice.

A salute to you, Alexei Ramirez. Web Gem of the year.

Take the Afternoon Off

Nothing we like this afternoon. If we were forced to make a pick at gunpoint, we'd probably go with the Nats, or maybe the Orioles. Actually, that's not true at all- if our lives were on the line, why would we pick an underdog? That would be dumb. Anyway, we're taking a pass after a winning day yesterday. Back this afternoon with evening picks. Our only early lean so far is San Diego.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Wednesday Night Baseball

Two more for Wednesday, lines from Matchbook:

Braves -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit

Grover likes this one more than me, but if the majority of the wagerline folks want to back Nolasco over Tim Hudson, I'm game.

Nationals +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units

Giants & Correia vs. Nationals & Balester. A Clash of the Titans if there ever was one. Pitching matchup, such that it is, is pretty close, but I'm giving a slight hitting edge to the Nats tonight, believe it or not.

Good luck everybody.

Wednesday Afternoon Picks

I'm trying to talk Hambone off the ledge as we speak after yesterday's 0-4 run. He's trying to talk me out of hunting down and killing Jim Bowden and Sten Kasten.

OK, overall we're up over the last week or so, despite last night's fiasco. Let's try to keep it going this afternoon.

Minnesota Twins +156 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.56 units.

Going for the clean sweep! Mussina's been better than expected this year, but this line is just too good to resist with another one of Minnesota's surprising starters (Perkins) getting the start. Now if the Twins' front office actually showed they care about winning by calling up Liriano, I'd feel a little better about this team. That's just plain embarassing. Twins fans, here in DC we know how it feels. We have Jim Bowden sabotaging our team just like Bill Smith is doing for you right now.

Pittsburgh Pirates +121 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.21 units.

Pirates are better offensively than they get credit for. Seriously, check it out- they've outscored the Astros by 60 runs, even though the Astros play on a little league field.

Oh, who am I kidding. This is all about my irrational mancrush on Ian Snell. Snell's been terrible this year, so, umm, caveat emptor.

Chicago White Sox -114 (Matchbook), 1.14 units to win 1 unit.

We're so square. At least this is close to a 60/40 in the public eye, and we think Sox call-up Clayton Richard looks like a star. We'll play him now, then fade him in September when he's overhyped and major league hitters have had a chance to figure him out.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Wednesday Tennis

Well, the WNBA game was a loser, but if you watch ESPNEWS, there was apparently a big brawl at the very end. Good stuff. One tennis match for Wednesday:

M. Youzhny -130 (BetUS) over N. Kiefer, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units

Kiefer burned me yesterday. Let's not make it 2 in a row, please.

One For the Ladies

Well, if you guys are going to flood our e-mail box with requests for WNBA picks, we'll give you one:

Detroit -5.5 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.50 units

Good luck.

Tuesday Night Baseball

A four-pack for tonight, lines from Matchbook:

Twins +121, 1 unit to win 1.21 units

Twins hitting well recently and they've got the better pitcher on the mound tonight.

Padres -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit

I felt kind of square for leaning to San Diego tonight until I saw the betting numbers, and the majority appear to be on the Reds. Betting on Jake Peavy is the contrarian play? What's the world coming to?

Royals +116, 1 unit to win 1.16 units

I sent Grover an e-mail yesterday morning predicting that I would be supporting KC today. What can I say? I'm psychic.

Indians +165, 1 unit to win 1.65 units

Ummmmmm. We were thinking that...... Ummmmmm. Wow. That line is retarded.

Good luck everybody. Possibly a WNBA pick tonight, still undecided.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Monday Baseball

Please see the post below re: NFL Win Totals. Would like to hear your thoughts on the when and where, if you have any.

Hambone and I were delighted to find that we both liked the same two games up top. We're adding a third for good measure.

Minnesota Twins +124 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.24 units.

I can't find a single statistic in which Ponson is better than Blackburn, except maybe in "donuts consumed," or "drinks bought for my friends at the bar at the Philadelphia Marriott." Minnesota has outscored the Yankees by 35 runs this season, has the better starting pitcher, and is getting +124. Yankee fans- a gambler's best friend.

San Diego Padres +132 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.32 units.

Two things are clear. One, Homer Bailey is talented. Two, MLB hitters have him completely figured out this year, and he has yet to adjust. The public is hammering Cincinnati, so we'll fade Bailey and go with the Padres and this Banks kid. He's prone to the longball, which gives me pause since the game is at the GABP, but there's value in this number.


Atlanta Braves +103 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.03 units.

Again, public tripping over themselves to bet on a young gun, in this case Chris Volstad. He's off the a red-hot start in the bigs, so that is probably the cause of the stampede. I've got three words for prospective bettors: small sample size. Is this kid going to be killing my Nats and helping my hairline to recede for years to come? Probably. Is he gonna finish the season with an 0.84 ERA? Probably not. A .233 BABIP further explains his red-hot start. We'll take the undervalued Campillo here.

NFL Win Total Lines- Your Thoughts, Please

I am starting to look at the NFL Win Total lines. Win Total lines have always been a favorite of mine, because they allow for a single multi-unit play that removes some of the day-to-day randomness of single games as well as the grind of daily review and the second-guessing that inevitably come with certain personnel matchups and other factors.

I am comfortable making these bets in MLB. But as far as football goes, I am a relative neophyte, and I have two questions I'd like to throw out to there to our generally intelligent, well-meaning readers:

(1) Is it better to bet now, or after training camp and a few preseason games? My gut reaction is that it's better to bet now, since I will probably be playing Unders on teams with a few media-favored superstars and overs on underrated teams that don't have marquee names but have superior depth and coaching track records; thus, the inevitable preseason injuries would more likely help me than hurt me. On the other hand, more information is never the enemy of a bettor, plus the public might overreact to a big injury, allowing us to take advantage.

(2) Anyone know of a site that offers these with reasonable juice? WSEX is the only one of my regularly visited sites that offers win total bets, and they appear to be charging 15%. Too much for the unpredictability of a 16 game season, if you ask me.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Monday Tennis Fix

Won in every sport we played Sunday, and the tennis picks have been doing well the past couple of days. So, with that jinx in place, here's one for Monday in the Rogers Cup:

M. Fish +150 (WSEX) over N. Kiefer, 0.50 units to win 0.75 units
_

Sunday Afternoon Educated Guesses

Big rebound last night, cashing all 3 dogs after the early afternoon fiascoes. Here's what we've got for today:

MLB

A's +127, 1 unit to win 1.27 units

Giving the A's one more chance......

Nationals +169, 1 unit to win 1.69 units

Big line move away from the Braves, even though more than 60% of the wagerline kids are on Atlanta. Good sign for us.

Astros +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units

Fading Dempster and his .258 BABIP. He's gonna get hit hard at some point.

Dodgers +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units

Pretty close, with a hitting edge to the Dodgers. We'll take the dog


WNBA

Washington +2.5, 0.55 units to win 0.50 units

This line is so weird, this just has to be right.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Sunday Morning Tennis

In the Championship Match of the Dutch Open:

A. Montanes -140 (WSEX) over S. Darcis, 0.70 units to win 0.50 units

Saturday Night Crap

It's getting to the point where we're not even surprised when the closer for our +191 dog (Huston Street, kiss my ass) blows the save, then a later reliever issues 2 straight walks to load the bases in the 12th and then hits the next batter to score the walk-off HBP. Just about what I expected after the past couple weeks. Red Sox will blow their lead also (ooh, look, Vlad hit a home run - good timing). The rest for tonight:

MLB

Lines from Matchbook, all for 1 unit.

Royals +132

Nationals +197

Astros +113


WNBA

Lines from WSEX, all for 0.55 units to win 0.50 units:

Houston -1

Atlanta +11

Just livin' the dream.....

Afternoon Addition

Sorry to send these out in piecemeal fashion, but we've both had a lot of shit to do today, and it's tough to coordinate. One more for the afternoon:

Red Sox -112 (Matchbook), 1.12 units to win 1 unit

Better pitchers, better hitters. You won't catch us backing Boston too often, but against a team that's way overrated, we're getting too good of a number here to lay off. Just about the squarest bet we'll make this season.

Back later with picks for tonight (almost done).

Saturday Early Game

Still trying to find some traction in baseball, but Grover's golf pick is a winner this weekend and today's tennis is OK so far. Just one early game today.

A's +191 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.91 units

I think we would have to cut up our Handicapper's Club card if we didn't play this one. Joba is good, but Gallagher has been decent and this line is way out of proportion today. Back later with the rest.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Saturday Tennis

Missed most of these tourneys screwing around in Vegas this week, but played these three for Saturday, all lines from WSEX:

J. Melzer +160 over P. Starace, 0.50 units to win 0.80 units

A. Montanes -160 over O. Hernandez, 0.80 units to win 0.50 units

M. Gicquel +130 over S. Darcis, 0.50 units to win 0.65 units

Looks like Grover's British Open bet (Karlsson over Cink) is a winner with Cink missing the cut, so we have that going for us, which is nice.

Friday Night Baseball

Back from Vegas and hoping for a winning weekend. Wholeheartedly agree with our commenters that last night's Reds loss in the 9th (blowing the 3-run lead) was a real kick in the balls. In all three of tonight's picks, the public (e.g. wagerline) is clearly on the opposite side of our pick, but the line is moving as if our pick were getting the action. We're always looking for these spots in any sport. All lines from Matchbook:

Orioles -124, 1.24 units to win 1 unit

Guthrie pitching well this year. Galarraga has been lucky.

A's +153, 1 unit to win 1.53 units

72% of the wagerline folks on the Yanks. Mussina has pitched better this season than anyone expected, but this line is just too high, especially with the lame hitting by the Yanks lately.

Royals +138, 1 unit to win 1.38 units

White Sox are another huge public favorite (76% at wagerline), but the line has been slowly dropping instead of growing. Greinke's peripheral numbers (e.g. K/BB, K/9, WHIP, etc.) are better than Buehrle's this season, but Buehrle is more well known and therefore getting some extra love today. A good number for us in this spot.

Don't like anything in the WNBA tonight, which I'm sure is very disappointing. Good luck everybody.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Baseball is back!

Not a lot of games today, but almost all of them are tempting. Going with these two for now, but also leaning towards Baltimore and Pittburgh:

Cincinnati Reds +135 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.35 units.

Cueto's up-and-down performances have been discussed here before, but there's something else at work here. He's facing Santana, who you rarely see getting anything better than -150, and for good reason. This line opened at +137 according to Wagerline, which seemed sorta low to begin with, and has dropped ten points by their data to +127 despite the fact that the public is predictably all over the Mets and Santana. Somebody a lot smarter/richer/mobb-ier than us knows something. We don't know what it might be, but we'll blindly follow.

San Diego Padres -102 (Matchbook or WSEX), 1.02 units to win 1 unit.

With our approach to baseball wagering, you very rarely get the chance to back a guy like Jake Peavy. This is one of those rare opportunities, so we're seizing it. Lohse has been strong, but his K/BB ratio suggests he's also been a bit lucky (BABIP of .286 is also marginally lower than average). The teams' third order records suggest that the Padres are slightly better than their record indicates, and the Cardinals are about five games worse. But mostly, we're just looking forward to actually getting to root for an ace instead of against one.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

One Open Play

And here it is ...

Robert Karlsson over Stewart Cink -105 (WSEX), 1.05 units to win 1 unit


For rationale turn to golf guru The Money Line Journal.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

OK, Let's Give it a Try ... NL to Win

Although I won't make in an official play towards our record, since I previously said I wouldn't be posting again until Thursday, both Hambone and I are playing the National League tonight. They're +139 at WSEX.

There is absolutely no reason that a team should be +139 in something as random as an all-star game. There's never that great a disparity in talent levels. In fact, according to BP the National League has an edge on offense, one that is exacerbated by the idiot Yankees and Red Sox "fans" who have voted Pedroia and Jeter to the starting lineup despite the fact that neither of them are particularly good at baseball, and that a vastly superior option at both positions could be found in Arlington, Texas. Add that to the fact that Ben Sheets is simply better than Cliff Lee (I know, they'll only go two innings, but hey, it's something), and you are left with the conclusion that the only place where the AL roster has an edge is their relievers. And pitching assignments in the All-Star game are too random to assign much value there.

Midsummer Break

Hambone is in Vegas this week- hey who doesn't want to go to Vegas in the middle of July during the slowest sports week of the year! And of course, there's not a lot of other action to gamble on. I'm not much for the WNBA, nor for betting on all-star games. So we'll take a little break ourselves, and return to business as usual Thursday afternoon.

If you crave action and need some sort of recommendation, betting the National League tonight is probably a decent play. And the public is apparently all over the Phoenix [insert effeminate name similar to Suns here] in the WNBA, so whoever they are playing is probably a decent play. But clearly I'm no WNBA expert. Finally, I'll point out that the Moneyline Journal apparently is all about the golf these days, so you can look there for some British Open plays. Good luck, and see you Thursday.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Sunday Before The Break

A tiny profit yesterday, but after the week that started on July 4th, we're happy to have two winning days in a row. Five games might be a lot for one day, but it's nothing but WNBA and tennis for a few days, so I'm going to play all five that I like. Lines from Matchbook:

Twins +138, 1 unit to win 1.38 units

Pitching pretty close, but the way the Twins have been hitting lately, we're happy to get a good number like this one on them today.

Bluejays +125, 1 unit to win 1.25 units

Burnett still racking up the K's, and the Bluejays love it when a lefty (and Pettitte in particular) makes the trip to Canada.

Orioles +183, 1 unit to win 1.83 units

We hardly ever miss a chance to fade the Gyroball. Next!

Giants +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units

Wagerline folks on the Cubs at more than 70%, but the line still seems a little low with the 57-37 Cubs playing at home with a 10-win pitcher on the mound against the 39-55 Giants. We like Lincecum this afternoon.

Braves -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Slipping in one slight favorite on the card. Campillo pitching better than Wolf. Braves hitting lefties pretty well, and Wolf has been struggling a little. Sounds like a good combination for the road team.

Passing on the WNBA (noooooooo!) and hopping on a plane to Vegas early Monday morning (as opposed to Grover, I take my vacations during a break in the action). Time to do some laundry. Good luck everybody

Overs Are Fun!

Stumbled upon this insightful Covers article this morning. Basically, the "professional" handicapper is advocating that we all bet on Overs in baseball. Why? Because there's a chance you could cover the Over in the very first inning! And then you wouldn't have to "sweat" out the result the rest of the game. This makes the Over the "best bet in baseball." I'm sure our friend at Vegas Watch could put together some interesting stats about what difference this possibility of an early win makes in the real world.

The funniest part of the article is that part where the author says that once the game goes over early, you're in the money as long as the game isn't cancelled by bad weather before it becomes official. But, if you "do your homework ahead of time" on the weather, you can avoid being surprised by a weather cancellation. So, if we suspect that a game might go Over in the first couple of innings, but our "weather homework" reveals the possibility of a rain-out, do we not bother to place the wager? Or is it just important that we aren't surprised when our winning wager gets cancelled? I think I would be just as pissed off even if I knew there was a chance of bad weather beforehand. But, maybe that's just me, and I'm not a Covers expert.

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Saturday Night is Date Night

The wife is going to get the bulk of my attention the rest of the evening, so I'm going to put the rest of these in and then we'll see you back tomorrow:

MLB

A's +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units

If Grover were doing his job instead of screwing around at the lake, I'm thinking he would take yet another opportunity to fade the overrated Angels. Eveland pitching well and we're getting the underdog money on the home team.

Marlins +121, 1 unit to win 1.21 units

Slight edge to Nolasco in a good pitching matchup tonight, and a definite advantage for the Marlins in the hitting department as they have been tearing up right-handed pitching lately.


WNBA

Lines from WSEX, each for 0.55 units to win 0.50 units.

Chicago +8

Seattle -4

_

Saturday Afternoon

Nice night for the good guys last night, with the big underdog Orioles and 2-unit Twins pick both cashing. Hopefully, things are starting to turn around after a horrible week. Two for this afternoon, lines from Matchbook:

Twins +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Baker has been pitching extremely well but flying under the radar all year, and the Twins have been hitting the hell out of the ball recently. Worth a play against the more public Tigers.

Rockies +121, 1 unit to win 1.21 units

With a name like Ubaldo, it has to be good. Jimenez pitching well, and you're always going to get a little extra value going against a big-name pitcher like Pedro on a big-market team. Plus, the wagerline kids really like the Mets today, which is as good a reason as any to go the other way.

Good luck everybody.

Friday, July 11, 2008

Friday Picks- The Tide is Turning

I can feel it. It's gonna be a good weekend. Mostly because I'll be gone. Site is in Hambone's capable, WNBA-loving hands until Monday. Before I depart, here's tonight's picks. I don't love posting these so early, before I get a chance to fully evaluate line moves, but when there's a deck chair and a case of Yuengling with your name on it, you do what you gotta do:

San Francisco Giants +145 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.45 units.

I hate to fade fellow MOT Jason Marquis in this, a banner year for the Jewish ballplayer. But my love of Cain is well-known, and when the public is going against him at a 3 to 1 clip, I can't be expected to pass.

Baltimore Orioles +192 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.92 units.

Buchholz is -200 today. This makes perfect sense, because everyone knows that there's nobody more reliable than a guy making his first major-league start in two months after stints in the DL and in the minors. The fact that the O's happen to be the team that Buchholz no-hit last year is also probably good for an extra +20 on our side. Plenty of value at this number.


Minnesota Twins +140 (BetUS), 2 units to win 2.8 units.

Public on the Tigers at a 3-2 clip (no doubt influenced by the 18-5 pounding the Twins took on Wednesday), but the line has plummeted almost 20 points in the opposite direction since opening. Gallarraga's .225 BABIP and K/BB ratio of less than 2/1 suggest that he's not nearly as good as his surface numbers would indicate. Perkins' .325 BABIP and 2.5/1 K/BB ratio suggest that he is better than his surface numbers indicate. Sometimes all of the factors that we love here at Against All Odds come together in a single game. When that happens, I have no problem playing two units (or more, if I were the kind of degenerate that gambled with real money) instead of forcing another one-unit play. It's not a "lock," or anything close, because there's no such thing. Hopefully you don't need anyone to tell you that. It's just a play with enough value to warrant multiple units.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Friday Morning Tennis

Quarterfinal matches in the various tournaments going on in Europe this week. 0.50 units on each of these 4 underdogs:

J. Del Potro +160 (WSEX) over P. Kohlschreiber

A. Montanes +210 (Bookmaker) over R. Gasquet

V. Hanescu +125 (Bookmaker) over J. Chardy

M. Cilic +140 (WSEX) over I. Andreev

_

I Hate Clint Hurdle (and the Thursday Night Picks)

I made the mistake of putting money (hypothetical money, of course, I discourage illegal internet wagering) on the Rockies this afternoon. Here's what transpired in the bottom of the 4th with the score tied at 1:

Jorge De La Rosa pitching:

Corey C. Hart: Hart struck out swinging.
Bill Hall: Hall singled to center.
Gabe Kapler: Kapler doubled to right, Hall scored.

OK, if I was a manager, at this point I'd think about maybe getting a reliever loose.

Mike Rivera: Rivera walked.
Dave Bush: Bush flied out to center.
Rickie Weeks: Weeks doubled to left, Kapler scored, Rivera to third.

I'd definitely have someone up at this point, if not in the game already.

J.J. Hardy: Hardy walked.

At this point the score is 3-1 and De La Rosa had throw somewhere in the neighborhood of 85 pitches, and has given up three hits and walked two guys in this inning alone. I think anyone who's ever watched baseball knows he's done. What's that, Clint Hurdle? You want to see if he can finish off the inning? OK, sure. Who cares if the bases are loaded and the game is still within reach? It's not like there's any danger in letting a clearly finished pitcher throw to scrubs like ... oh, Ryan Braun's up with Prince Fielder on deck?

That's so awful I can't even be sarcastic about it any more. For the sake of completion, here's what transpired, just as a blind six-year-old who's never heard of baseball could have predicted:

Ryan J. Braun: Braun singled to center, Rivera and Weeks scored, Hardy to third.
Prince Fielder: Fielder tripled to right, Hardy and Braun scored.
Corey C. Hart: Hart struck out swinging.

Rockies ownership- I like my job, but if you want me to help your team win games, I'm available. I'm a Jew, but I'll buy that crazy Jesus stuff you're selling if it will get me a job managing in the bigs. I guarantee you I'd be better at it than Clint Hurdle.

OK, two plays tonight. In both cases the public can't get enough of the favorites, but the line is curiously not moving, or moving towards the underdog. Hmm ...

Washington Nationals +137 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.37 units.

In addition to the above rationale about line moves, the D-Backs continue to be overvalued and Bergmann is very good against right-handers (i.e. the D-backs outfield and a good bit of their firepower). They're either gonna start their scrub lefties or let their regulars struggle. Either way, I like it. Haren, as it turns out, is not all that great against right-handers. The Nats have a lot of righties in their lineup- I know this because it seems like a foul ball almost kills me in my seats along the first-base line every damn inning. Plus I looked it up, if that makes you feel better.

Pittsburgh Pirates +130 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.3 units.

"But, but, they're the Yankees! Who cares if they're making a one-day stop on their way from Tampa to Toronto to play a makeup game? Tha Yanks will get the job done!"

Fans who say stuff like that are the reason that a guy with an OPS around .750 who is also the worst-fielding shortstop in the game is starting the all-star game next week.

Sorry for the straw man. Couldn't help myself. I'm very bitter today. Vote Longoria!

Friday's Guaranteed Early Losers

You know things are going well when your only "winner" of the day is voided by a pregame pitching change.

Today the real world is imposing on both Hambone and I, so no time for lengthy explanations of the early game pick. Line from Matchbook:

San Francisco Giants +206, 1 unit to win 2.06 units.

We love Zito.


Other afternoon action- Hambone likes the Twins. I'm close to convinced but not loving it for some reason. I also like the Rockies, but Hambone is gone now and we can't talk about it. Based on how things are going, I would recommend playing those two- anything we pass is almost a guaranteed winner.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Thursday Morning Tennis

Another day in baseball-slump paradise. A four-pack of tennis matches for early Thursday:

S. Bolelli -130 (Bookmaker) over J. Del Potro, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units

V. Hanescu +172 (Bookmaker) over I. Karlovic, 0.25 units to win 0.43 units

G. Garcia-Lopez +200 (WSEX) over N. Kiefer, 0.25 units to win 0.50 units

D. Young -120 (WSEX) over A. Peya, 0.60 units to win 0.50 units

Back with more baseball fades tomorrow.

Wednesday Four-Play

Onward and upward. First game is an afternoon start:

San Diego Padres -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.

Did you know the Padres' third-order record and the Marlins' third-order record are only separated by about two games? With the Padres at home in an early start and the fact that the public is on the Marlins at a pretty decent clip, we're sold. Baek vs. Olsen = garbage vs. garbage, so that's pretty much a wash. We'll take the undervalued team vs the ridiculously overvalued team.

Cincinnati Reds +175 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.75 units

Standard Cubs fade with the public all over them even more so than normal today. Cueto has been up-and-down this year, but at +175 it's worth taking a chance on him even against Zambrano at Wrigley.

Texas Rangers +130 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.30 units.

Public is loving the Angels at a 67% clip, an extraordinary number for a road team. Must be because they "know how to win." Whatever. The teams' third-order records are separated by about 1.5 games. Me gusta. Fading a Weaver is just the icing on the cake for me. Note that this pick is not Hambone- approved as of 2 PM, when he had a meeting of some kind. Caveat Emptor.

Atlanta Braves +110 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.10 units.

Another ATL road game with a quality starter on the mound for the Braves = another Against All Odds unit play. We're so predictable.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Tennis Wednesday

Three for Wednesday morning. Did everybody enjoy the Orioles losing on an error by the shortstop with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th? I know I did.

A. Montanes -130 (Bookmaker) over O. Hernandez, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units

M. Cilic +150 (WSEX) over P. Mathieu, 0.50 units to win 0.75 units

M. Safin -150 (WSEX) over P. Starace, 0.75 units to win 0.50 units

_

A New Link

What good is a blog if you can't use it as a forum to express your frustration with your home club? And thus, Fire Jim Bowden is added to our list of favorite websites.

If someone can explain to me why they're starting Willie Harris and Paul LoDuca in the outfield instead of calling up this guy, I'm all ears. Look at those OPS numbers!!!

Hambone, I'll explain OPS to you later. I've got to go watch Brandon Webb hold the Nats to 1 run on 4 hits. If they're lucky.

(Yes, I know why they're starting Paul Lo Duca- they're trying to bait someone into trading for him. However, this logic is premised on the notion that someone besides Jim Bowden thinks Paul Lo Duca has value, and therefore is faulty).

WNBA Tuesday

A sport that's actually going well recently. I figure I need to give it a chance to kick me in the nuts, too.

Detroit -5 (Bookmaker), 0.55 units to win 0.50 units

Indiana -2 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.50 units

Haven't looked at tennis for tomorrow yet, but might be back with something late night for tomorrow morning.

Tuesday Baseball

Warning - slump in progress. Lots of time to pick up the pieces. Here's what we played for Tuesday night:

Orioles +122, 1 unit to win 1.22 units

Cabrera pitching better than McGowan lately (although it's tough to ever trust Cabrera), and the Orioles hitting well lately.

Reds +151, 1 unit to win 1.51 units

We still haven't given up on Harang yet, and Dempster has recently been experiencing the letdown we've been waiting for all season.

Braves +128, 1 unit to win 1.28 units

We've been pushing the idea that the Braves' woes on the road will turn around this season for months, so with a good young pitcher on the mound and the underdog number, we have to take a shot here.

Good luck everybody.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Tuesday Tennis

Wow. Another frustrating baseball loss (Twins), and after agreeing on the Royals early Monday morning, we didn't play it. A couple of first-round favorites on the clay courts of Europe for Tuesday morning:

C. Berlocq -150 (Bookmaker) over Y. Schukin, 0.75 units to win 0.50 units

V. Hanescu -130 (WSEX) over O. Patience, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units

_

Disaster and Recovery

Horrible weekend all around. I spent the better part of my birthday in the emergency room with a shoulder injury. Hambone has a losing streak of epic proportions, capped off with a post questioning Roger Federer's attitude and passion right before he recovers from 2 sets down to play Nadal to a near-draw in an amazing tennis match. Anyway, today we begin the long road to recovery with these gems:

Minnesota Twins +160 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.60 units.

I love this play. If we weren't on a losing streak, I would make it a two-unit play. However, because we're losing, I'm worried that upping the bets would be going "on tilt," so I'm looking to be a little more careful. Anyway, Scott Baker is at least the equal of Daisuke Matsuzaka. I would argue he's a bit better. The Ortiz-less Sox and the Twins are about even on the offensive side. The Sox are at home and the Twins might be a bit tired, but I can't see how this line could be any higher than Twins +110 if the home team's jerseys didn't say "Red Sox" on them. I don't bet on clothing.


Atlanta Braves +131 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.31 units.

Atlanta on the road with the undervalued Jorge Campillo is an easy play. I actually like Kuroda, who's on the mound for the Dodgers tonight, but the pitching matchup is at least a push, if not in the Braves' favor, and neither team is much for run production. Taking two road teams on a Monday (when they would be at their most tired) is a minor downside, but the extreme home-road split we saw over the first two months of the season seems to be normalizing, so we'll hope that trend continues tonight. Lots of value in both these dogs.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Baseball Sunday

Does Federer have an ounce of heart? He looks like he couldn't care less. Very disappointing. OK, I'm not going to waste the time it takes to explain the picks when they're all losing in the 9th inning. Here are today's fades:

Astros +123, 1 unit to win 1.23 units

A's -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Bluejays +116, 1 unit to win 1.16 units

_

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Breakfast at Wimbledon



Talked myself out of playing Venus this morning. Not going to sit out of the men's final:

R. Federer -126 (Matchbook) over R. Nadal, 0.63 units to win 0.50 units

Saturday Night MLB

Two more for tonight. In both, I'm going with the slight favorite where we have teams that can't hit, but one pitcher is clearly superior.

Padres -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Dodgers -125, 1.25 units to win 1 unit

Good luck everybody. Back tomorrow.

Saturday Afternoon Action

Not much going on this afternoon, but played the following:

MLB

Red Sox +130, 1 unit to win 1.30 units

Hitting edge to the Sox this afternoon. Can't pass up the dog here.

Cubs +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units

Another case of the road team having a slight hitting edge today. Lilly has double the strikeouts of Lohse so far this year, so I'm hoping to see a lot of swings-and-misses by the Cards.


WNBA

Houston -2.5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

You know you love it......

Happy Birthday, Grover (and, oh yeah, America)



Every year, Grover has the double-whammy back-to-back drinking excuses of July 4th in Washington DC followed the next day by his birthday, so we won't be hearing anything coherent out of him until at least Monday. You're all at my mercy for a couple of days.....be afraid, be very afraid.




Friday, July 4, 2008

Friday Night Baseball

Two more for Independence Night, lines from Matchbook:

Astros +173, 1 unit to win 1.73 units

I like this pick so much it's gotta be a loser. This line is so insane it makes sense that 63% of the wagerline folks are on Atlanta. Ridiculous.

Bluejays +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units

Angels are another big wagerline fave today (65%), which always makes us feel better about going the other way. Angels can't hit and Burnett is still a strikeout machine. Are we unpatriotic for supporting a Canadian team on July 4th? Our President's minions are probably going to start running commercials calling us un-American now.

That's it for tonight. Just got the Blue Ribbon College Football Yearbook today so I know how I'll be spending my weekend. Back tomorrow.

Fireworks in the Afternoon

There were several potential plays this afternoon, but in the end, there was only one that we both agreed on:

Giants +103 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.03 units

The pitiful Giants with a rookie pitcher on the mound opened as a favorite against the Dodgers and Derek Lowe? That's almost an automatic play. Sanchez has been good to us so far and the Dodgers can't hit at all since Furcal went out.

Back later with tonight's games.

Wha' Happened?!?


D-Backs runs by inning: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Oh yeah, that's what happened. And don't get me started on the Marlins taking the lead in the top of the 11th and then giving up 2 runs in the bottom. If I had actually watched either game, there would have been some broken electronics at my house. A ball-busting night for the ages.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Thursday Night is Ladies Night

From the WNBA:

Houston -4 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.50 units

I feel sorry for the 0-16 Atlanta Dream. I figure the best way to help them win a game is to bet against them on this blog. You're welcome, Atlanta. See you at Freaknik.

Thursday Picks and a Minor Quarrel with ESPN

First, the picks. Both lines from Matchbook:

Milwaukee Brewers +158, 1 unit to win 1.58 units.

Manny Parra = Brandon Webb with control issues. Given the fact that Parra is young and talented and is hopefully resolving his control issues quickly as he works through his rookie season in the bigs, plus the fact that the Diamondbacks have been flat-out awful since wowing everyone in April, (Webb hasn't been the same, either) we're more than happy to take +158 on this late afternoon game.

Florida Marlins +116, 1 unit to win 1.16 units.

Neither pitcher inspires confidence, but at least Andrew Miller is young, has good stuff, and is improving. None of those things are true about Mark Redman. Let's hope the homer-happy Marlins knock a few out of Coors Field this evening.

And now my ESPN bitching. This "Titletown USA" thing is appallingly stupid. You know that, I know that, there's plenty of articles about that. One of the many things that annoys me about it is this: Columbus, Ohio is a finalist.

Now, The Ohio State University is a fine school with a quality athletic program, among the nation's best. There can be no doubt about that. Plus Columbus harbors the AAA affiliate of my beloved Washington Nationals. That town houses the athletes responsible for keeping me sane over the next decade. Nothing second-rate about that.

But back to the Buckeyes. Ohio State has won a few NCAA Division 1-A football championships. Seven, according to both ESPN and Wikipedia. However, that only puts them 8th in the all-time rankings (fifth if you only count the "modern era"). If you ask me, New Haven, CT is Titletown USA. 18 NCAA Division 1-A titles, plus the edumacation of yours truly, handicapper extraordinaire? How can you deny that? Anyway, being 8th/5th best doesn't seem like an outstanding qualification for much of anything. I don't see Lawrence or Durham on the list.

But more importantly ... didn't anyone at ESPN point out that Ohio State has made a complete mockery of the college football title game for the last two years? Isn't this akin to considering Buffalo, NY as finalist for "Titletown, USA" in 1994? Why isn't this being ridiculed? If your flagship team's performance in the title game is so bad that it makes a strong argument for completely restructuring the way your sport awards its titles, I don't think you're "Titletown."

Ah. That was a good way to kill time. Now to start four days of binge drinking.

I hate L.A. ...

... but this is way better than having George W. Bush throw out the first pitch at Nationals Park.

(trying to distract readers from the performance of last night's card)

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Wednesday Baseball Picks and Bonus D.C. Golf Action

I live in D.C. I like to gamble. I also like to drink outdoors. As such, I'm making a couple calls on the 72-hole matchups for the AT&T National this weekend at Congressional. But first, the rest of the Wednesday baseball card:

Oakland A's +130 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.3 units.

I get to fade the overrated Angels and the overrated Saunders, take the underrated A's and underrated Eveland, and entertain myself during a slow afternoon at work, all at the same time? Done and done.

Cleveland Indians -110 (Matchbook), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

This was a Hambone play, I was wary because I don't like "big-name" pitchers like Sabathia, rarely value in them. Then Hambone pointed out that the line was moving in the opposite direction of the public. That's all I needed to know. I don't care who's playing, or even what sport it is. If you give me a chance to bet with the big money and against the public, I'm taking it.

Kansas City Royals +120 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.2 units.

Orioles have presented lots of opportunities for value this season because they have pitchers that seem to toss up gems and stinkers at about the same rate. Cabrera is one of them. Plenty of value in that when you're opponent is overvalued, and that happens all the time if you play in the AL East. But we'll play the other side when the opponent is Meche and the Royals.

And now your AT&T National Tournament head-to-head plays. If you want plays to win the whole shabang, I highly recommend The Money Line Journal. Lines from WSEX:

Hunter Mahan +110 over Jim Furyk, 1 unit to win 1.1 units.

Dudley Hart +115 over Rocco Mediate, 1 unit to win 1.15 units.


Shouldn't surprise you that we're fading the two biggest "names" in the tournament. Both "underdogs" have lower 2008 adjusted scoring averages than the favorites in these matchups. Sign me up. Not really enough of a record at Congressional to establish anything- both Mahan and Furyk did well at this tournament in 2007, Furyk slightly better, but Mahan's 65 on Sunday is enough to convince me he's comfortable there. One out of two underdogs and the resulting small profit is all we ask. Slow and steady wins the race.

Wednesday Afternoon

Squeezing in some blog time here at the office. Just one for the early games:

Nationals +151 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.51 units

Washington is bascially fielding a AA or AAA lineup these days because of injuries, but that's not much worse than the Marlins regular lineup against lefties. Public all over Florida today, so it shouldn't be any surprise that we're on the other side with a good number like this.

Back later with the evening games.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Wimbledon Quarterfinals

Almost played Zheng this morning, but talked myself out of it. Daddy needs to get at least one of these. Lines from Matchbook:

F. Lopez +150 over M. Safin, 0.50 units to win 0.75 units

R. Schuettler +106 over A. Clement, 0.50 units to win 0.53 units

One For the Ladies

Could have gotten this at -2 last night if I was paying better attention. Hopefully, the difference won't make a difference. From the WNBA:

San Antonio -3.5 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.50 unit

Probably back later with a tennis match or two for Wednesday.

Tuesday's Underdogs: Midwestern AL Teams with "R" Names

We like to make it easy to remember the picks when you open a new window. We're very thoughtful like that.

Texas Rangers +192 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.92 units.

I know, I know ... Kevin Millwood is nothing special. And I do think Joba is a real talent and is finally in his proper role as a starter with no ridiculous cap on his innings. But +192? Seriously? They're giving us +192? The Rangers have the more productive lineup by any metric. Does the difference between Millwood and Joba not only compensate for that disparity, but actually make the Yanks +190 favorites? I think not.

[Insert your own Madonna joke here or in the comments- I'm not feeling creative today]

Kansas City Royals +110 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.1 units.

Simple value play- both teams sending talented young pitchers to the hill tonight, but the Royals' Hochevar has been sharper then the O's Liz all year. Better starter getting underdog odds is almost always an automatic play for us.