Our first MLB series play of the postseason. This one was a no-brainer:
Milwaukee Brewers +164 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 3.28 units.
Let's pretend an extremely promising young pitcher has missed most of the regular season due to injury. His team's fanbase (not to mention fantasy owners everywhere) was crushed when he went down early in the season, with some even writing off the season. Despite the setback, the team rallied to make the playoffs, and the elite young pitcher returned just in time for the postseason.
If the player in question was, say, 22 year old Joba Chamberlain, and he was coming back to rejoin the New York Yankees, we'd be hearing all about how he will provide a huge boost, how this changes the dynamic of the series, and how he could well be the "X Factor" that pushes his team to the top.
But if the player in question is 22 year old Yovani Gallardo, we get articles about how he's the youngest Game One starter ever.
Everyone is falling all over themselves to pick the Phillies. Meanwhile, Myers has been in a tailspin for the last month, and the best thing you'll ever hear about Moyer is that he's "reliable." There are two days off in this five-game set, meaning that the Brewers will start Sabathia twice and may even get two starts (or one start and one or two bullpen appearances) out of Gallardo. That doesn't even account for the possibility that Ben Sheets might return at some point.
I see this series as a push, maybe slightly favoring the Phillies (they have a bullpen edge, although not as substantial an edge as people think, and a small hitting edge). +164 is significant value no matter how you slice it.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Cubs/Dodgers Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Dempster vs. Lowe
Dempster's only edge in this matchup is in strikeouts (8.14 K/9 for Dempster, 6.27 for Lowe). However, because of his larger walk rate, Lowe actually has the clear advantage in K/BB (Lowe = 3.27, Dempster = 2.46). Other stats pretty even, but because of all the free passes issued by Dempster, we're gonna say....
Edge: Lowe
Game 2: Zambrano vs. Billingsley
Somewhat surprisingly, Big Z doesn't really have a clear advantage in any category, other than number of bats broken over his knee. Zambrano's K/BB is less than 2, and Billingsley has a huge advantage in strikeouts, while issuing a roughly equal rate of walks. Zambrano's FIP is 4.24 and HR/9 is 0.86, which are far and away the worst of all the pitchers starting the first 3 games of this series.
Edge: Billingsley (not really even close)
Game 3: Harden vs. Kuroda
Harden's 11.01 K/9 is ridiculously good, and his WHIP of 1.06 this season is too. Kuroda is pretty close to even in most categories, and has the superior walk rate, but isn't quite on the same level in sitting down hitters.
Edge: Harden (I think I'm required to say, "assuming he's healthy," here)
Game 4: Matchup unknown (could be Dempster/Lowe on 3 days rest, or Lilly/Maddux)
Hitting advantage to the Cubs, but not by as much as you might think. The meat of the Cubs lineup (Soriano, Theirot, Lee, Ramirez, Soto) are all right-handers, but they won't see a single left-handed starter in the entire series. That's OK with Ramirez and his .963 OPS vs. righties this season, but the rest of them all perform better against LHP. If they're smart, they'll hit Edmonds #5 (and keep Reed Johnson on the bench), and start Fontenot over DeRosa at 2B (DeRosa's calf may make the decision for them). The Dodgers can hit lefties Ethier and Loney at #4 and 5, and if switch-hitter Rafael Furcal is healthy enough (2/9 in last 4 games after returning from DL) to leadoff, LA gets a big boost with him up there because it allows them to move Kemp lower in the lineup and keep Angel Berroa on the bench.
How in the hell are the Dodgers +210 in this series? That's crazy high.
Dempster's only edge in this matchup is in strikeouts (8.14 K/9 for Dempster, 6.27 for Lowe). However, because of his larger walk rate, Lowe actually has the clear advantage in K/BB (Lowe = 3.27, Dempster = 2.46). Other stats pretty even, but because of all the free passes issued by Dempster, we're gonna say....
Edge: Lowe
Game 2: Zambrano vs. Billingsley
Somewhat surprisingly, Big Z doesn't really have a clear advantage in any category, other than number of bats broken over his knee. Zambrano's K/BB is less than 2, and Billingsley has a huge advantage in strikeouts, while issuing a roughly equal rate of walks. Zambrano's FIP is 4.24 and HR/9 is 0.86, which are far and away the worst of all the pitchers starting the first 3 games of this series.
Edge: Billingsley (not really even close)
Game 3: Harden vs. Kuroda
Harden's 11.01 K/9 is ridiculously good, and his WHIP of 1.06 this season is too. Kuroda is pretty close to even in most categories, and has the superior walk rate, but isn't quite on the same level in sitting down hitters.
Edge: Harden (I think I'm required to say, "assuming he's healthy," here)
Game 4: Matchup unknown (could be Dempster/Lowe on 3 days rest, or Lilly/Maddux)
Hitting advantage to the Cubs, but not by as much as you might think. The meat of the Cubs lineup (Soriano, Theirot, Lee, Ramirez, Soto) are all right-handers, but they won't see a single left-handed starter in the entire series. That's OK with Ramirez and his .963 OPS vs. righties this season, but the rest of them all perform better against LHP. If they're smart, they'll hit Edmonds #5 (and keep Reed Johnson on the bench), and start Fontenot over DeRosa at 2B (DeRosa's calf may make the decision for them). The Dodgers can hit lefties Ethier and Loney at #4 and 5, and if switch-hitter Rafael Furcal is healthy enough (2/9 in last 4 games after returning from DL) to leadoff, LA gets a big boost with him up there because it allows them to move Kemp lower in the lineup and keep Angel Berroa on the bench.
How in the hell are the Dodgers +210 in this series? That's crazy high.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Pride Comes Before the Fall
Well, that will be the last time I write about how great we are before the weekend is through. Thankfully, the NFL win total bets had another good day.
I love the Tigers today at the numbers I'm seeing (somewhere in the neighborhood of +210). I don't see how the White Sox deserve to be better than 2 to 1 favorites in this one, and my thoughts on Gavin Floyd are well-known. Unfortunately, I can't access the usual sites, so I can't post an official pick. If anyone feels like emailing me or posting here with a good number from BetUS or Matchbook, it would be much appreciated.
I love the Tigers today at the numbers I'm seeing (somewhere in the neighborhood of +210). I don't see how the White Sox deserve to be better than 2 to 1 favorites in this one, and my thoughts on Gavin Floyd are well-known. Unfortunately, I can't access the usual sites, so I can't post an official pick. If anyone feels like emailing me or posting here with a good number from BetUS or Matchbook, it would be much appreciated.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Sunday Morning
What's that you say? You're impressed? This old thing? Just something we threw together at the last minute. No big deal, really. Plus 5 units, you say? Genius, you say? Please, you're making us blush.
Only one addition to the NFL slate today, and it's one I mentioned a couple posts ago.
Washington Redskins/Dallas Cowboys Under 46 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units.
There's just too much action the other way, and an easy explanation for the action (talking heads raving about the Cowboys' weapons). Yet the line does not move. These teams both have decent defenses. Sure, there's plenty of offensive talent. But 46 is a lot of points.
Only one addition to the NFL slate today, and it's one I mentioned a couple posts ago.
Washington Redskins/Dallas Cowboys Under 46 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units.
There's just too much action the other way, and an easy explanation for the action (talking heads raving about the Cowboys' weapons). Yet the line does not move. These teams both have decent defenses. Sure, there's plenty of offensive talent. But 46 is a lot of points.
Friday, September 26, 2008
NFL Week 3: So Right, Yet So Wrong
First- congratulations to Hambone, who is the proud father of a new baby boy. A great day for him and his wife, and a frightening day for his friends.
Ok, on to the important stuff. By all measures, we're doing pretty well in the 2008 NFL season. We're beating the books so far (admittedly, it's too soon to really judge). Even better, 4 of my 5 win total over/unders are looking good, adding some validity to my preseason theory that, armed with decent statistical projections, a little insight, and a smidgen of common sense, you can beat win total bets in the NFL in much the same way that you can with MLB win total bets.
But so far, it looks like we totally whiffed on the Cowboys Under 10.5. And it hurts, because that was the one I personally talked about the most, both here on the site and with my friends. And it's also the one that's the most "contrarian," which was the whole basis for the theory. The public and the talking heads loved them and many had them winning 12 or 13 games, while the stat guys were less enthusiastic. It appears that not only were the public and the talking heads correct, but the reasons they offered for their projections (Barber's emergence, TO's maturity, improvements on defense) were also correct.
At least we'll always have Steve Phillips, his projection of 92 wins for the Mariners, and the piles of money that it won for us as comfort. Plus, hey, 4 out of 5 in the NFL ain't too shabby.
On to Week 4. These lines are from last night. If you see something better today or tomorrow, please make a note of it in the comments. We'll repost and most likely add another on Saturday afternoon:
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) -105 (BetUs), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
This was also listed at +3, +103 last night on Matchbook. As with last week, if you can access the converter and want to run it for me, I'd appreciate it. They look about even. We like the Vikings this season, and this spot looks like a great spot to take them. Just not buying the Titans this year, and we think the Vikings supremely talented offensive line can counter the Titans' strength up front.
St. Louis Rams (+9) -110 (BetUS), 2.2 units to win 2 units.
Haven't we been here before? Last week we faded the Bills as ten point favorites (and wagerline consensus favorites) hosting a much-ridiculed team with an offense that featured a quality running back who excels at catching the ball out of the backfield. Now we get to make essentially the same play, except we get the home team and we only have to give back one point. Honestly, is your impression of the Rams' train wreck this week really that much worse than your impression of the Raiders' train wreck was last week? Two units for this sequel sounds good to us. We might even add a quarter-unit money line play before Sunday if we're feeling saucy.
That's it this week. We're staying the hell away from the Cowboys-Redskins game, for the reasons discussed above, but if you want some action on the big afternoon game, the Under (47) looks tempting. Everyone and their mother is hammering the Over after seeing the Cowboys light up the Eagles and Packers in consecutive national games.
Ok, on to the important stuff. By all measures, we're doing pretty well in the 2008 NFL season. We're beating the books so far (admittedly, it's too soon to really judge). Even better, 4 of my 5 win total over/unders are looking good, adding some validity to my preseason theory that, armed with decent statistical projections, a little insight, and a smidgen of common sense, you can beat win total bets in the NFL in much the same way that you can with MLB win total bets.
But so far, it looks like we totally whiffed on the Cowboys Under 10.5. And it hurts, because that was the one I personally talked about the most, both here on the site and with my friends. And it's also the one that's the most "contrarian," which was the whole basis for the theory. The public and the talking heads loved them and many had them winning 12 or 13 games, while the stat guys were less enthusiastic. It appears that not only were the public and the talking heads correct, but the reasons they offered for their projections (Barber's emergence, TO's maturity, improvements on defense) were also correct.
At least we'll always have Steve Phillips, his projection of 92 wins for the Mariners, and the piles of money that it won for us as comfort. Plus, hey, 4 out of 5 in the NFL ain't too shabby.
On to Week 4. These lines are from last night. If you see something better today or tomorrow, please make a note of it in the comments. We'll repost and most likely add another on Saturday afternoon:
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) -105 (BetUs), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
This was also listed at +3, +103 last night on Matchbook. As with last week, if you can access the converter and want to run it for me, I'd appreciate it. They look about even. We like the Vikings this season, and this spot looks like a great spot to take them. Just not buying the Titans this year, and we think the Vikings supremely talented offensive line can counter the Titans' strength up front.
St. Louis Rams (+9) -110 (BetUS), 2.2 units to win 2 units.
Haven't we been here before? Last week we faded the Bills as ten point favorites (and wagerline consensus favorites) hosting a much-ridiculed team with an offense that featured a quality running back who excels at catching the ball out of the backfield. Now we get to make essentially the same play, except we get the home team and we only have to give back one point. Honestly, is your impression of the Rams' train wreck this week really that much worse than your impression of the Raiders' train wreck was last week? Two units for this sequel sounds good to us. We might even add a quarter-unit money line play before Sunday if we're feeling saucy.
That's it this week. We're staying the hell away from the Cowboys-Redskins game, for the reasons discussed above, but if you want some action on the big afternoon game, the Under (47) looks tempting. Everyone and their mother is hammering the Over after seeing the Cowboys light up the Eagles and Packers in consecutive national games.
College Football- Help Wanted
With my partner Hambone at the hospital awaiting the little Hambone, I'm left to make the college football plays. If anyone who doesn't work for Big Brother feels like line-shopping, please feel free to do so and post your findings in the comments. I'm using the lines at the USA Today website and assuming -110, since that's all I can access I have here at Globex headquarters.
UAB (+26.5) -110 at South Carolina, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
This one is all Hambone- he loved it early this week, even though he's Columbia born-and-bred. All I know is that South Carolina plays in the SEC, which according to annoying rednecks everywhere, is so good that their worst team could win every other NCAA conference even if they only got to put nine guys on the field. Personally, I'm a big fan of fading the opinions of loudmouth rednecks.
And while I'm on the topic: please, please stop wearing your cheap sunglasses on the brims of your baseball caps. You look like an idiot and a mindless conformist, and, more importantly, wearing either of the aforementioned items eliminates the need for the other.
OK, I'm done now.
Houston (+11) -110 at East Carolina, 2.2 units to win 2 units.
Check it out- I have a sixth sense. I can't access Wagerline, and haven't looked at the numbers for this week at all, but I predict that East Carolina, which lost to a terrible NC State team last week, is getting well over 60% of the action thanks to their extensive media exposure over the last month. Am I right? Anyway, we're not that impressed with ECU's "big-time" wins over (1) a rebuilding Virginia Tech team that was starting a QB so terrible that they had to un-redshirt a guy to replace him, and (2) a West Virginia team that, apparently, doesn't have a head coach. Houston keeps this one close.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Auburn, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Nobody loves poor Tennessee. Awww. I think it's the transitive property- they lost to UCLA, UCLA lost to BYU 59-0, ergo, Tennessee is terrible. But that sort of thinking never works in college football. Auburn's valiant effort against an LSU team that is not nearly as good as last year's national champions certainly has them getting some unwarranted love, too. We think the Vols put up a good fight, and Fulmer gets to stick around at least one more week.
Players pulling stunts like this certianly doesn't give me much confidence in Tennessee, though.
Michigan (+6) vs Wisconsin, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
It's "maligned national power" week at Against All Odds. We're not impressed with Wisconsin, and we think Michigan makes a stand this week and maybe even pulls the outright upset. I don't have much else to say about this game, so I'll note that The Big House and Camp Randall are the only two big time tradition-rich college football stadiums I've ever visited- I'm not counting various ACC and Ivy league stadiums, as they're either big time or tradition-rich, but never both. And between them, the Badgers win the "best stadium experience" contest in a walkover. Get it together, Ann Arbor. I recommend way more cussing in your chants, and way, way less tomahawk-chopping.
UAB (+26.5) -110 at South Carolina, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
This one is all Hambone- he loved it early this week, even though he's Columbia born-and-bred. All I know is that South Carolina plays in the SEC, which according to annoying rednecks everywhere, is so good that their worst team could win every other NCAA conference even if they only got to put nine guys on the field. Personally, I'm a big fan of fading the opinions of loudmouth rednecks.
And while I'm on the topic: please, please stop wearing your cheap sunglasses on the brims of your baseball caps. You look like an idiot and a mindless conformist, and, more importantly, wearing either of the aforementioned items eliminates the need for the other.
OK, I'm done now.
Houston (+11) -110 at East Carolina, 2.2 units to win 2 units.
Check it out- I have a sixth sense. I can't access Wagerline, and haven't looked at the numbers for this week at all, but I predict that East Carolina, which lost to a terrible NC State team last week, is getting well over 60% of the action thanks to their extensive media exposure over the last month. Am I right? Anyway, we're not that impressed with ECU's "big-time" wins over (1) a rebuilding Virginia Tech team that was starting a QB so terrible that they had to un-redshirt a guy to replace him, and (2) a West Virginia team that, apparently, doesn't have a head coach. Houston keeps this one close.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Auburn, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Nobody loves poor Tennessee. Awww. I think it's the transitive property- they lost to UCLA, UCLA lost to BYU 59-0, ergo, Tennessee is terrible. But that sort of thinking never works in college football. Auburn's valiant effort against an LSU team that is not nearly as good as last year's national champions certainly has them getting some unwarranted love, too. We think the Vols put up a good fight, and Fulmer gets to stick around at least one more week.
Players pulling stunts like this certianly doesn't give me much confidence in Tennessee, though.
Michigan (+6) vs Wisconsin, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
It's "maligned national power" week at Against All Odds. We're not impressed with Wisconsin, and we think Michigan makes a stand this week and maybe even pulls the outright upset. I don't have much else to say about this game, so I'll note that The Big House and Camp Randall are the only two big time tradition-rich college football stadiums I've ever visited- I'm not counting various ACC and Ivy league stadiums, as they're either big time or tradition-rich, but never both. And between them, the Badgers win the "best stadium experience" contest in a walkover. Get it together, Ann Arbor. I recommend way more cussing in your chants, and way, way less tomahawk-chopping.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Odds and Ends
First things first- no baseball plays today. Slight lean to San Diego with Peavy (generally +110 or thereabouts) on the mound vs. Maddux, but nothing looks too great. Plus if we win another game, we move back to being ahead by double-digit units. I like having the single digit profit margin going into the playoffs. Keeps us hungry. But feel free to play the Padres if you are jonesing for some gambling action as a side effect of your restless leg syndrome or something.
NFL picks will be up as usual around lunchtime tomorrow. Here's a link to one of my favorite NFL tools, the LVSC NFL power rankings. It's a good place to start; I like to look for discrepancies between these rankings and the week-to-week lines, and if I find some, move on to the next question ... why.
Added bonus- the D.C. Sports Bog also has a visit to Fred Smoot's house. Anyway, I'll probably include a second, more focused round of "leans" for the college games tomorrow around lunchtime as well. Probably won't make any official plays until Friday afternoon or evening, though.
Finally, our senior citizen Bo Derek-referencing friend Hambone is still awaiting the arrival of his first born. For those of you that have not met Hambone in person, he has a giant head. Think Charlie Brown. Or at least the kid from So I Married an Axe Murderer. So if his child-to-be has inherited that genetic deficiency, there could be some delays. Anyway, I'll pass along any news I receive.
NFL picks will be up as usual around lunchtime tomorrow. Here's a link to one of my favorite NFL tools, the LVSC NFL power rankings. It's a good place to start; I like to look for discrepancies between these rankings and the week-to-week lines, and if I find some, move on to the next question ... why.
Added bonus- the D.C. Sports Bog also has a visit to Fred Smoot's house. Anyway, I'll probably include a second, more focused round of "leans" for the college games tomorrow around lunchtime as well. Probably won't make any official plays until Friday afternoon or evening, though.
Finally, our senior citizen Bo Derek-referencing friend Hambone is still awaiting the arrival of his first born. For those of you that have not met Hambone in person, he has a giant head. Think Charlie Brown. Or at least the kid from So I Married an Axe Murderer. So if his child-to-be has inherited that genetic deficiency, there could be some delays. Anyway, I'll pass along any news I receive.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
10 Early College Leans
Looking at the early wagerline results and line movements, 10 possible picks for Saturday:
Marshall +14 at West Virginia
Ole Miss +22.5 at Florida
Houston +10.5 at East Carolina
UAB +24.5 at South Carolina
Arkansas State -1 at Memphis
Indiana +7.5 vs Michigan State
Tennessee +6.5 at Auburn
Buffalo +6.5 at Central Michigan
Michigan +6 vs Wisconsin
UTEP +4.5 vs Central Florida
We haven't made any final decisions on picks yet, just throwing some out there for discussion. We won't play all of these, and may play some that are not on this list. If my wife goes into labor in the next couple of days, Grover will probably be picking a few from this list as official picks. Any thoughts are always welcome.
P.S. In case you're too young to know, that picture is Bo Derek from the movie, "10"
One Wednesday play
Tonight we're sticking with one half-unit play:
Atlanta Braves +268 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.34 units.
No question this matchup favors the Phillies. But unless Brett Myers turned into circa 1999 Pedro Martinez when I wasn't looking, +268 seems like a value play. Interestingly, Hambone thinks Brett Myers is circa 1999 Pedro, so this took some convincing. Caveat emptor.
Update on the Minnesota travesty: The Twins are currently 1.5 games behind the White Sox. If you take Livan Hernandez's July starts, and substitute Liriano's performance in one of his average starts since returning to the rotation in August (6 weeks too late) for Livan's starts, the result is three extra wins for the Twinkies.
Join me tomorrow, when I discuss various legal theories available to Twins season ticketholders should they decide to sue Twins management.
Atlanta Braves +268 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.34 units.
No question this matchup favors the Phillies. But unless Brett Myers turned into circa 1999 Pedro Martinez when I wasn't looking, +268 seems like a value play. Interestingly, Hambone thinks Brett Myers is circa 1999 Pedro, so this took some convincing. Caveat emptor.
Update on the Minnesota travesty: The Twins are currently 1.5 games behind the White Sox. If you take Livan Hernandez's July starts, and substitute Liriano's performance in one of his average starts since returning to the rotation in August (6 weeks too late) for Livan's starts, the result is three extra wins for the Twinkies.
Join me tomorrow, when I discuss various legal theories available to Twins season ticketholders should they decide to sue Twins management.
Help Me With My Math
One of the early lines for this weekend is South Carolina -24.5 vs. UAB. Now, I haven't had time to look at UAB yet, and I don't have a supercomputer handy to crunch the numbers, but doesn't this mean that the Gamecocks would have to score more than 24 points to cover this spread?
Unless UAB is going to give up fumbles and interceptions at its own 10-yard-line all night like NC State did, I just don't see it.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Correcting Dan The Bastard
At least, I think that's how Dan Le Batard translates into English. On PTI just now, discussing Cliff Lee, Dan The Bastard just said that if were betting against Cliff Lee this season, you would have been wrong 22 out of 24 times. Wrong. His record is 22-2, but that's only in games where he got a decision. If you bet against him every time he started, your win-loss record would have actually been 24-6, so he should have said you would have been wrong 24 out of 30 times. Sounds picky, but it's the difference between winning bets against him 8.3% of the time and winning 20% of the time. I can't even use a calculator, but that seems statistically significant to me. Mostly, I had Cliff Lee on the brain since we came very close to posting a pick on Lee and the Indians tonight, but decided against it at the last minute. Probably a guaranteed winner now.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Monday Baseball, and a Word About the Next Week
First, today's baseball play:
Atlanta Braves +155 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.55 units.
This is nothing more than a value play in the underrated Jair Jurrjens. Public is on their opponent, the Phillies, I assume because they're "in the hunt" and the Braves are not.
Now, a word about the next week or two. We're gonna slow the pace around here considerably, for two reasons. One, I don't see a lot of value in the last week or two of baseball plays. Lineups will become less predictable as September callups get more involved and teams clinch playoff spots and start resting starters. Two, my partner, Hambone, is likely to become a daddy for the first time at ome point in the next 7 days or so. So he might be a little distracted.
The only things we'll be playing in the coming days are possible Red Sox fades, because I think there may be some bettors who just assume they'll pass the Rays since they're the Red Sox. Otherwise, we might pick a spot or two, but there won't be much. Perhaps I'll fill the void with a long rant about how Minnesota Twins fans should file a class action lawsuit agains the team's management for leaving Francisco Liriano to throw two-hit shutouts in AAA for two solid months while they ran out the likes of Livan Hernandez. The Twins are currently 2.5 games out. Inexcusable.
Anyway, we will have college and pro picks as normal later this week. Hambone will pass along his early leans today in case the little critter arrives a couple days early. Good luck to my friend on his new adventure.
Atlanta Braves +155 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.55 units.
This is nothing more than a value play in the underrated Jair Jurrjens. Public is on their opponent, the Phillies, I assume because they're "in the hunt" and the Braves are not.
Now, a word about the next week or two. We're gonna slow the pace around here considerably, for two reasons. One, I don't see a lot of value in the last week or two of baseball plays. Lineups will become less predictable as September callups get more involved and teams clinch playoff spots and start resting starters. Two, my partner, Hambone, is likely to become a daddy for the first time at ome point in the next 7 days or so. So he might be a little distracted.
The only things we'll be playing in the coming days are possible Red Sox fades, because I think there may be some bettors who just assume they'll pass the Rays since they're the Red Sox. Otherwise, we might pick a spot or two, but there won't be much. Perhaps I'll fill the void with a long rant about how Minnesota Twins fans should file a class action lawsuit agains the team's management for leaving Francisco Liriano to throw two-hit shutouts in AAA for two solid months while they ran out the likes of Livan Hernandez. The Twins are currently 2.5 games out. Inexcusable.
Anyway, we will have college and pro picks as normal later this week. Hambone will pass along his early leans today in case the little critter arrives a couple days early. Good luck to my friend on his new adventure.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Sunday Baseball
Just one for this afternoon:
Mariners +137 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.37 units
Morrow's BABIP is really low, but he has the strikeouts to compensate.
Passing on the Dice-K fade today, which means he's sure to lose. No NFL additions for the 1 PM games, although Vikings was a close call.
Mariners +137 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.37 units
Morrow's BABIP is really low, but he has the strikeouts to compensate.
Passing on the Dice-K fade today, which means he's sure to lose. No NFL additions for the 1 PM games, although Vikings was a close call.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
One More Baseball Game
I am such an asshole. I said in the last post that I lean Boise State and Marshall but passed them both. Of course, they are both going to cover EASILY. Dammit.
Braves +113, 1 unit to win 1.13 units
We like Campillo better than Pedro these days, so we'll take the slight home dog.
That should be it for today. Ole Miss, Auburn, and New Mexico still pending (posted Thursday night) in college football. Freaking Boise State......
Braves +113, 1 unit to win 1.13 units
We like Campillo better than Pedro these days, so we'll take the slight home dog.
That should be it for today. Ole Miss, Auburn, and New Mexico still pending (posted Thursday night) in college football. Freaking Boise State......
Baseball Anyone?
I know football is the big attraction today, but there are still pennant races going on.
Twins +141 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.41 units
Rays clinch a playoff spot with a win, but I don't think that's a good reason to overvalue a struggling Kazmir with a very good pitcher going for the Twins, who also need a win.
Not going to add any 3:30 football games today. Lean Boise State and Marshall, but just going to pass and sweat out the end of the early games still in progress.
Twins +141 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.41 units
Rays clinch a playoff spot with a win, but I don't think that's a good reason to overvalue a struggling Kazmir with a very good pitcher going for the Twins, who also need a win.
Not going to add any 3:30 football games today. Lean Boise State and Marshall, but just going to pass and sweat out the end of the early games still in progress.
Early Game Additions - One Unit Wonders
Three more college football picks for the first round of games:
N.C. State +7 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit
I'm not sure why this wasn't on my radar earlier in the week. America's Cinderella visiting an awful Wolfpack team. 65% of wagerline on ECU, but the line took a step back from ECU -7.5 to -7.
Central Florida +10 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
What has BC done to be a 10-point favorite over anybody? Seriously.
Central Michigan +10.5 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit
The "2008 Football Playbook" that BetUS sent me says that Purdue has won 12 straight September home games and CMU is 2-10 SU in its last 12 September road games, so this one is probably a loser. Can't argue with those numbers.
In summary, any school with "Central" in its name is probably a good play today. Passing on Temple, although I've been expressing my love for them all season and have already played and won with them twice already. Add in that the Temple coach is a former Nittany Lion, so maybe Joe Pa won't be looking to run up the score on him, and it sure looks like the right play. I can't explain it, but something about it just doesn't feel right to me, so we're not playing it. I'll be gritting my teeth as the game goes into overtime......
N.C. State +7 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit
I'm not sure why this wasn't on my radar earlier in the week. America's Cinderella visiting an awful Wolfpack team. 65% of wagerline on ECU, but the line took a step back from ECU -7.5 to -7.
Central Florida +10 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
What has BC done to be a 10-point favorite over anybody? Seriously.
Central Michigan +10.5 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit
The "2008 Football Playbook" that BetUS sent me says that Purdue has won 12 straight September home games and CMU is 2-10 SU in its last 12 September road games, so this one is probably a loser. Can't argue with those numbers.
In summary, any school with "Central" in its name is probably a good play today. Passing on Temple, although I've been expressing my love for them all season and have already played and won with them twice already. Add in that the Temple coach is a former Nittany Lion, so maybe Joe Pa won't be looking to run up the score on him, and it sure looks like the right play. I can't explain it, but something about it just doesn't feel right to me, so we're not playing it. I'll be gritting my teeth as the game goes into overtime......
Friday, September 19, 2008
Twins, D-Backs and Giants and Bears, Oh My!
Three baseball games and one college football game this evening, lines from Matchbook:
MLB
Twins +113, 1 unit to win 1.13 units
Rays are hot, but Edwin Jackson is not. Hey, that sort of rhymes.
D-Backs +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
With a name like Max Scherzer, he has to be good.
Giants +216, 0.5 units to win 1.08 units
One of our earliest blog favorites, Mr. Zito will find a way. A wild, frustrating, sloppy way.
College Football
Baylor +12 +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Each team has had a couple of easy wins over crappy opponents and one where they struggled, but one thing is clear: neither team can throw the ball. Baylor's run defense has been pretty stout, even as they were getting whipped by Wake Forest. Line movement favors the Bears as well. The wise man who writes The Money Line Journal (link on left) has warned us not to touch this game, so when UConn wins by 30, he will have earned a big fat "I told you so."
There will definitely be an addition or two for the Noon set of games tomorrow.
MLB
Twins +113, 1 unit to win 1.13 units
Rays are hot, but Edwin Jackson is not. Hey, that sort of rhymes.
D-Backs +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
With a name like Max Scherzer, he has to be good.
Giants +216, 0.5 units to win 1.08 units
One of our earliest blog favorites, Mr. Zito will find a way. A wild, frustrating, sloppy way.
College Football
Baylor +12 +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Each team has had a couple of easy wins over crappy opponents and one where they struggled, but one thing is clear: neither team can throw the ball. Baylor's run defense has been pretty stout, even as they were getting whipped by Wake Forest. Line movement favors the Bears as well. The wise man who writes The Money Line Journal (link on left) has warned us not to touch this game, so when UConn wins by 30, he will have earned a big fat "I told you so."
There will definitely be an addition or two for the Noon set of games tomorrow.
Friday Afternoon Fade
Can't find Grover, but I think he'd be OK with this one:
Cardinals +153 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.53 units
We fade the public Cubs all the time, but getting to fade them AND a pitcher coming off a no-hitter is a good spot for us. Big Z is a valued member of my first-place fantasy team, but has been pretty shaky recently except for the no-no.
Cardinals +153 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.53 units
We fade the public Cubs all the time, but getting to fade them AND a pitcher coming off a no-hitter is a good spot for us. Big Z is a valued member of my first-place fantasy team, but has been pretty shaky recently except for the no-no.
BetUS - The Contrarian NFL Bettor's Paradise
I don't know what the heck goes on over there, but I'm taking advantage. Added bonus- BetUS is also one of only two sites I've found (WSEX is the other) that accepts my debit/credit card deposits. A substantial improvement from a year ago, when I couldn't find any. It's not easy being a person of low morals in a fascist society. Anyway, on to the football.
These lines were accurate as of around 9:00 PM last night. I can't verify them at work, thanks to a new firewall that screens gambling sites. Anyway, here's what I like from the generous BetUS lines - and for the record, I like these teams at the slightly smaller numbers at Matchbook and WSEX also, with the possible exception of the Texans:
Oakland Raiders (+10) -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
So let me get this straight: the Buffalo Bills, projected to win 6 or 7 games this year, win two games (both against teams that lost their other game as well), and suddenly they're world-beaters? The way I see it, there's two ways to look at a season two games in: (1) you think two games is way too soon (and way too small a sample size) to judge a team, in which case you should discount Buffalo's 2-0 record; or (2) you think two games, while not 16, is the best evidence of team quality we have right now, in which case you should be careful before giving Buffalo too much credit. After all, they've only beaten a Jacksonville team that couldn't even handle Tennessee mid-Vince Young meltdown, and an injury-wrecked Seattle team that handed a game to the lowly 49ers. Either way, I don't see how you can start penciling Buffalo in for the Super Bowl just yet.
You'll notice I haven't mentioned the team I'm actually betting on in this wager. There's a reason for that. Anyway, 60% of Wagerline's on Buffalo. I'll play the double-digit dog here. Note- Matchbook has it (+9.5) -102. It's up to you whether you want to buy the extra half-point for .08 units. The handy-dandy translator that Vegas Watch showed us last week has the chances of a push at +10 at somewhere around 4.5%, which makes the extra juice for the half-point worthwhile in my book. Your mileage may vary. I can't use the translator here at work, so if anyone wants to check it this afternoon and comment on the line comparison, I'm all ears.
Houston Texans (+6) -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
66% of Wagerline is on Tennessee. Not sure why. Can Albert Haynesworth play 22 positions at the same time? Because otherwise, I just don't see elite talent. This is the game I'm least enthusiastic about of these three, but the Wagerline data is there, and (+6) -105 at BetUS is also the biggest disparity I saw. Matchbook has it (+5) -112 and WSEX has it (+5) -110. I don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
Green Bay Packers (+4) -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
I really don't have much choice here. I love the Pack, I think the Cowboys are overrated, Wagerline shows 63% on the Cowboys, and the Pack are a home underdog in a nationally televised night game. A little less publicity for Aaron Rodgers over the last two weeks, and this would be the dream Against All Odds play. Sure, we've already got a big stake in this one with our mutli-unit Cowboys Under 10.5 win bet, and our Packers Over 8 win bet (I can't believe they won't let us cash that one yet). But I can't stop myself from making a play.
I can't begin to figure out how Dallas is giving four on the road. Sure, they're very good. They may even win the Super Bowl. But that's not enough to make them more than a field goal favorites on the road against another Super Bowl contender. I think, in a way, this is a result of the 2007 Patriots phenomenon. People think there needs to be a clear favorite to love/hate in the NFL, and once Brady went down, the marquee team became the star-studded, controversial Cowboys. Thinking like that is the reason the Patriots went 1-8 ATS in their last nine games last season and went to the Super Bowl as double-digit favorites against a red-hot team that had played them virtually to a draw a month earlier. So, umm, keep thinking that way, America. How 'bout dem Cowboys?
These lines were accurate as of around 9:00 PM last night. I can't verify them at work, thanks to a new firewall that screens gambling sites. Anyway, here's what I like from the generous BetUS lines - and for the record, I like these teams at the slightly smaller numbers at Matchbook and WSEX also, with the possible exception of the Texans:
Oakland Raiders (+10) -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
So let me get this straight: the Buffalo Bills, projected to win 6 or 7 games this year, win two games (both against teams that lost their other game as well), and suddenly they're world-beaters? The way I see it, there's two ways to look at a season two games in: (1) you think two games is way too soon (and way too small a sample size) to judge a team, in which case you should discount Buffalo's 2-0 record; or (2) you think two games, while not 16, is the best evidence of team quality we have right now, in which case you should be careful before giving Buffalo too much credit. After all, they've only beaten a Jacksonville team that couldn't even handle Tennessee mid-Vince Young meltdown, and an injury-wrecked Seattle team that handed a game to the lowly 49ers. Either way, I don't see how you can start penciling Buffalo in for the Super Bowl just yet.
You'll notice I haven't mentioned the team I'm actually betting on in this wager. There's a reason for that. Anyway, 60% of Wagerline's on Buffalo. I'll play the double-digit dog here. Note- Matchbook has it (+9.5) -102. It's up to you whether you want to buy the extra half-point for .08 units. The handy-dandy translator that Vegas Watch showed us last week has the chances of a push at +10 at somewhere around 4.5%, which makes the extra juice for the half-point worthwhile in my book. Your mileage may vary. I can't use the translator here at work, so if anyone wants to check it this afternoon and comment on the line comparison, I'm all ears.
Houston Texans (+6) -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
66% of Wagerline is on Tennessee. Not sure why. Can Albert Haynesworth play 22 positions at the same time? Because otherwise, I just don't see elite talent. This is the game I'm least enthusiastic about of these three, but the Wagerline data is there, and (+6) -105 at BetUS is also the biggest disparity I saw. Matchbook has it (+5) -112 and WSEX has it (+5) -110. I don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
Green Bay Packers (+4) -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
I really don't have much choice here. I love the Pack, I think the Cowboys are overrated, Wagerline shows 63% on the Cowboys, and the Pack are a home underdog in a nationally televised night game. A little less publicity for Aaron Rodgers over the last two weeks, and this would be the dream Against All Odds play. Sure, we've already got a big stake in this one with our mutli-unit Cowboys Under 10.5 win bet, and our Packers Over 8 win bet (I can't believe they won't let us cash that one yet). But I can't stop myself from making a play.
I can't begin to figure out how Dallas is giving four on the road. Sure, they're very good. They may even win the Super Bowl. But that's not enough to make them more than a field goal favorites on the road against another Super Bowl contender. I think, in a way, this is a result of the 2007 Patriots phenomenon. People think there needs to be a clear favorite to love/hate in the NFL, and once Brady went down, the marquee team became the star-studded, controversial Cowboys. Thinking like that is the reason the Patriots went 1-8 ATS in their last nine games last season and went to the Super Bowl as double-digit favorites against a red-hot team that had played them virtually to a draw a month earlier. So, umm, keep thinking that way, America. How 'bout dem Cowboys?
Thursday, September 18, 2008
The Old College Try
Thanks to reader "sham" for helping us pick these three early games out of the bunch for Saturday. Lines from Matchbook:
Ole Miss -7 +101, 2 units to win 2.02 units
Watched a good portion of the game with Wake Forest and was impressed with the Rebels. Vandy's feel-good run ends this week.
Auburn +2.5 -102, 2.04 units to win 2 units
Considered the moneyline on this one, but after watching that 3-2 crapfest last week, I decided we'd better take the points.
New Mexico +10 -109, 2.18 units to win 2 units
This line is already down to 9.5 at several sites. I said last week that the Lobos could win straight up as 10-point dogs and they did. I still don't understand the lack of respect, but I'll keep trying to capitalize on it.
I think there will be several additions on Saturday, but we got some good e-mail feedback on getting some plays out there by Friday for folks who don't have weekend access. Good luck everybody. I think Grover will have NFL picks up on Friday as well.
Ole Miss -7 +101, 2 units to win 2.02 units
Watched a good portion of the game with Wake Forest and was impressed with the Rebels. Vandy's feel-good run ends this week.
Auburn +2.5 -102, 2.04 units to win 2 units
Considered the moneyline on this one, but after watching that 3-2 crapfest last week, I decided we'd better take the points.
New Mexico +10 -109, 2.18 units to win 2 units
This line is already down to 9.5 at several sites. I said last week that the Lobos could win straight up as 10-point dogs and they did. I still don't understand the lack of respect, but I'll keep trying to capitalize on it.
I think there will be several additions on Saturday, but we got some good e-mail feedback on getting some plays out there by Friday for folks who don't have weekend access. Good luck everybody. I think Grover will have NFL picks up on Friday as well.
Late Addition
Got too caught up in the real world to get the plays posted for tonight's baseball games. Only one left that we liked:
Giants +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
That Lincecum guy isn't half bad.
Giants +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
That Lincecum guy isn't half bad.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Aaargh! in the Afternoon
Yes, the aargh! was my attempt at a pirate reference. I'm so fucking lame.
Pirates +113 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.13 units
Pittsburgh just keeps plugging along, oblivious to the public's constant underestimation of their chances. They've got the better pitcher today, just need to keep scoring the runs. Back later.
Pirates +113 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.13 units
Pittsburgh just keeps plugging along, oblivious to the public's constant underestimation of their chances. They've got the better pitcher today, just need to keep scoring the runs. Back later.
Early College Football Candidates
From the early betting and line movements (or lack thereof), there are 9 so far that look fishy enough to be potential plays this weekend:
Baylor +12
Ohio +10.5
Miami(OH) +11.5
Ole Miss -6.5 (I know, a favorite)
Auburn +2.5
New Mexico +10.5
Central Michigan +10.5
Rice +30
Boise State +10.5
Any help in narrowing down the list is always appreciated.
Baylor +12
Ohio +10.5
Miami(OH) +11.5
Ole Miss -6.5 (I know, a favorite)
Auburn +2.5
New Mexico +10.5
Central Michigan +10.5
Rice +30
Boise State +10.5
Any help in narrowing down the list is always appreciated.
Let's Try This Again
Tough to handicap these last few weeks of the season, when contenders and also-rans all have different motivations and are giving minor leaguers their opportunity to play, but we soldier on. Three for tonight, lines from Matchbook:
Reds +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Harang has finally remembered what a good pitcher he is. I'm sure his team is glad to have him back for a few meaningless games.
Brewers +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
Sheets vs. Marquis. 'Nuff said.
Giants +206, 1 unit to win 2.06 units
We like Mr. Sanchez, and Webb has really been off his game lately.
Probably passing on the football game tonight. Kansas State looks to be the better team, but staying away from the popular road favorite. Good luck, folks.
Reds +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Harang has finally remembered what a good pitcher he is. I'm sure his team is glad to have him back for a few meaningless games.
Brewers +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
Sheets vs. Marquis. 'Nuff said.
Giants +206, 1 unit to win 2.06 units
We like Mr. Sanchez, and Webb has really been off his game lately.
Probably passing on the football game tonight. Kansas State looks to be the better team, but staying away from the popular road favorite. Good luck, folks.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Managers Fired and Man-Crushes Retained
Two baseball games for Tuesday night, lines from Matchbook:
Brewers -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
We don't think Yost's firing makes it more difficult for CC to throw a complete game shutout.
Giants +158, 1 unit to win 1.58 units
Grover's man-crush on Cain is alive and well. A good reason to risk hard-earned money, right?
Brewers -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
We don't think Yost's firing makes it more difficult for CC to throw a complete game shutout.
Giants +158, 1 unit to win 1.58 units
Grover's man-crush on Cain is alive and well. A good reason to risk hard-earned money, right?
Monday, September 15, 2008
No Football Tonight
We're feeling good about the NFL after yesterday's 3-1 results (should have been 4-0, stupid Vikings), but don't want to force it tonight. Eagles line looks almost too good to be true. But, because we're sick and we have to play something, here's a baseball pick:
Rays -113 (Matchbook), 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Still fading Dice-K and his wild ways. Getting Kazmir on our side this time is an added bonus.
Rays -113 (Matchbook), 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Still fading Dice-K and his wild ways. Getting Kazmir on our side this time is an added bonus.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Sunday Baseball
Another winning week in college football, although it was close. One more point in the South Florida and Fresno State games, and things would have been even better. But, a win is a win. On to baseball, lines from Matchbook:
Braves +158, 1 unit to win 1.58 units
Pitching matchup too close for this number.
Bluejays +112, 1 unit to win 1.12 units
Doc over Lester. Thank you very much.
NFL picks were posted on Friday. If we add anything, we'll put them up here, but at least for the 1 PM games, I think that's it.
Braves +158, 1 unit to win 1.58 units
Pitching matchup too close for this number.
Bluejays +112, 1 unit to win 1.12 units
Doc over Lester. Thank you very much.
NFL picks were posted on Friday. If we add anything, we'll put them up here, but at least for the 1 PM games, I think that's it.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Don't Try This At Home
The smart thing to do would probably be to just call it a day, relax, and watch the football games, but nobody ever accused us of being smart. One baseball and one football addition for tonight, both lines from Matchbook:
MLB
Rays -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Garza vs. Ponson is no contest. Had to keep that winning theme going, but really, this is just the same play we made yesterday that got rained out.
College Football
Fresno State +2 -109, 1.09 to win 1 unit
After watching Nevada getting ripped to shreds, I'm a little hesitant to add another football game today, but Grover and I talked about this one days ago and we both liked it. Not sold on Wisconsin this far from home. Line down to +1.5 at some of the books.
Hope everybody had a profitable day. NFL tomorrow....
MLB
Rays -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Garza vs. Ponson is no contest. Had to keep that winning theme going, but really, this is just the same play we made yesterday that got rained out.
College Football
Fresno State +2 -109, 1.09 to win 1 unit
After watching Nevada getting ripped to shreds, I'm a little hesitant to add another football game today, but Grover and I talked about this one days ago and we both liked it. Not sold on Wisconsin this far from home. Line down to +1.5 at some of the books.
Hope everybody had a profitable day. NFL tomorrow....
Two Afternoon Football Additions
Like the title says, two more for this afternoon:
Nevada +26 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Bookies tipped their hand a little bit with that half-point retreat last night, despite almost 70% public love for Missouri. Missouri offense very good, but Nevada is no slouch in that phase of the game (11th nationally last year in yards per game). Missouri gave up 451 yards passing and 5 touchdowns to Juice Williams a couple of weeks ago (his high last year was 220 yards passing), and I think Nevada will score enough to keep this one within the number.
Central Michigan -3 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Are we allowed to say that Team A is just better than Team B any more? Is that within the modern handicapping rules? Ohio isn't all of a sudden on the same level as CMU just because they caught Ohio State sleepwalking last week, while CMU got whipped by Georgia. CMU clearly superior, and it shows today.
Back later with at least one more addition for tonight. And, yes, I'm feeling better this morning, thanks for asking.
Nevada +26 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Bookies tipped their hand a little bit with that half-point retreat last night, despite almost 70% public love for Missouri. Missouri offense very good, but Nevada is no slouch in that phase of the game (11th nationally last year in yards per game). Missouri gave up 451 yards passing and 5 touchdowns to Juice Williams a couple of weeks ago (his high last year was 220 yards passing), and I think Nevada will score enough to keep this one within the number.
Central Michigan -3 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Are we allowed to say that Team A is just better than Team B any more? Is that within the modern handicapping rules? Ohio isn't all of a sudden on the same level as CMU just because they caught Ohio State sleepwalking last week, while CMU got whipped by Georgia. CMU clearly superior, and it shows today.
Back later with at least one more addition for tonight. And, yes, I'm feeling better this morning, thanks for asking.
Baseball Didn't Kick Us In The Balls Last Night
So, we'll play a couple of the early MLB games. Lines from Matchbook:
Bluejays +105 (Game 1), 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Burnett vs. Byrd is no contest.
Royals +135 (Game 1), 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Greinke vs. Carmona is no contest. See the symmetry there? That's the key to good handicapping analysis.
If the starting pitchers for the 6 double-headers today get sorted out, we may have an addition or two later.
Bluejays +105 (Game 1), 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Burnett vs. Byrd is no contest.
Royals +135 (Game 1), 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Greinke vs. Carmona is no contest. See the symmetry there? That's the key to good handicapping analysis.
If the starting pitchers for the 6 double-headers today get sorted out, we may have an addition or two later.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Three For Saturday
Health deteriorating fast, but I said I would post a few college football picks for the benefit of the faders out there. Here are 3, lines from Matchbook:
Tulane +12.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
While ECU was busy being appointed as the best football team ever last week, Tulane was quietly giving Alabama (the best football team ever from the previous week) a hell of a game (as predicted on this blog, I should add). I like ECU, and we were on them in Week 1, but they're going to struggle with expectations, letdown, and a decent Tulane defense tomorrow.
Mississippi State +10 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
That half-point move last night toward Miss. St. despite big public support for Auburn was the final straw for me on this one. Not at all impressed with Auburn so far. While the Auburn players should be focused on this game after getting beaten by Croom's crew last year, it's going to be hard for them not to look ahead just a little bit to LSU next week.
New Mexico +10.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
I don't get all the Arizona love on this one. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Lobos pull off the straight-up win tomorrow. Very odd.
Good night. Go Bulls.
Tulane +12.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
While ECU was busy being appointed as the best football team ever last week, Tulane was quietly giving Alabama (the best football team ever from the previous week) a hell of a game (as predicted on this blog, I should add). I like ECU, and we were on them in Week 1, but they're going to struggle with expectations, letdown, and a decent Tulane defense tomorrow.
Mississippi State +10 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
That half-point move last night toward Miss. St. despite big public support for Auburn was the final straw for me on this one. Not at all impressed with Auburn so far. While the Auburn players should be focused on this game after getting beaten by Croom's crew last year, it's going to be hard for them not to look ahead just a little bit to LSU next week.
New Mexico +10.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
I don't get all the Arizona love on this one. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Lobos pull off the straight-up win tomorrow. Very odd.
Good night. Go Bulls.
They're Still Playing Baseball
Wow, a ton of picks on the blog today. For those of you who like to go the opposite of whatever we're playing, you've got a lot of choices today. Trying to get college football done for tomorrow, so no time for explanation of these, lines from Matchbook:
Rays -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Tigers +123, 1 unit to win 1.23 units
Mariners +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units
Giants +182, 1 unit to win 1.82 units
Good luck everybody. I woke up sick this morning, so I don't know if I'll have the energy to get all the college football picks done this afternoon. I'll try and post a few for tomorrow around 5 PM or so this afternoon.
Rays -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Tigers +123, 1 unit to win 1.23 units
Mariners +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units
Giants +182, 1 unit to win 1.82 units
Good luck everybody. I woke up sick this morning, so I don't know if I'll have the energy to get all the college football picks done this afternoon. I'll try and post a few for tomorrow around 5 PM or so this afternoon.
NFL Week 2
After a good start last week, we've got four games this week. Sticking with one-unit plays for now, because, frankly, we're not as confident in our NFL reads as we are in our MLB/college football reads.
Cleveland Browns +7 -110, (BetUs), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I have a strange feeling that this year, the press is going to have a new "favorite" in the AFC every week, and that if we go against that team every week, we'll come out ahead in the end. This week the media darling is the Steelers. They're touchdown favorites on the road against a team that went 10-6 last year. Makes sense, though- after all, we've got a whole 60 minutes worth of football under our belts! That's a huge sample size. Or so betters seem to think- 69% of them are on the Steelers. Sure, we have our questions about the Browns, but there are very few matchups in which we wouldn't take an NFL team getting 7 at home.
Minnesota Vikings +1 +105 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.05 units.
One week ago, the Vikings were a trendy Super Bowl pick. I'm not ready to discount them just because they lost at Green Bay, especially since I also consider Green Bay to be a contender in the NFC. I think this line is a product of a public sentiment that the Colts can't possibly start the season 0-2. After all, they're the Colts. Thus, 72% of the public's on the Colts. I don't buy that. I think the Vikings win at home, and I think we'll see both teams in the playoffs regardless of the Week 2 results.
New England Patriots +1.5 -110 (BetUS, WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Quarterback may be the most important position in the NFL, but it's not the only reason teams succeed or fail, despite what the talking heads would have you believe. The Patriots are not going 5-11 this year, and Brett Favre is not leading an otherwise average team to the Super Bowl. The Dolphins played the Jets pretty even last week (check the stats), and basically lost by the margin of a hail mary caught by Cotchery. In case you've forgotten, the Dolphins were 1-15 last year. I had planned to just stay away from this game because of all the attention, but with the line moving a point towards the Patriots despite 57% of the public on the Jets, I couldn't resist.
Washington Redskins +1.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
The Redskins are not good, but they're not as bad as they looked last week. The Las Vegas Sports Consultants had the Saints and Redskins pretty close points-wise in their power ratings ... before the Colston injury. Yet the Skins are getting points, at home. And the public is on the Saints at a 73% clip. I hate making calls on my hometown teams, but this one fits the bill in every respect.
Cleveland Browns +7 -110, (BetUs), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I have a strange feeling that this year, the press is going to have a new "favorite" in the AFC every week, and that if we go against that team every week, we'll come out ahead in the end. This week the media darling is the Steelers. They're touchdown favorites on the road against a team that went 10-6 last year. Makes sense, though- after all, we've got a whole 60 minutes worth of football under our belts! That's a huge sample size. Or so betters seem to think- 69% of them are on the Steelers. Sure, we have our questions about the Browns, but there are very few matchups in which we wouldn't take an NFL team getting 7 at home.
Minnesota Vikings +1 +105 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.05 units.
One week ago, the Vikings were a trendy Super Bowl pick. I'm not ready to discount them just because they lost at Green Bay, especially since I also consider Green Bay to be a contender in the NFC. I think this line is a product of a public sentiment that the Colts can't possibly start the season 0-2. After all, they're the Colts. Thus, 72% of the public's on the Colts. I don't buy that. I think the Vikings win at home, and I think we'll see both teams in the playoffs regardless of the Week 2 results.
New England Patriots +1.5 -110 (BetUS, WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Quarterback may be the most important position in the NFL, but it's not the only reason teams succeed or fail, despite what the talking heads would have you believe. The Patriots are not going 5-11 this year, and Brett Favre is not leading an otherwise average team to the Super Bowl. The Dolphins played the Jets pretty even last week (check the stats), and basically lost by the margin of a hail mary caught by Cotchery. In case you've forgotten, the Dolphins were 1-15 last year. I had planned to just stay away from this game because of all the attention, but with the line moving a point towards the Patriots despite 57% of the public on the Jets, I couldn't resist.
Washington Redskins +1.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
The Redskins are not good, but they're not as bad as they looked last week. The Las Vegas Sports Consultants had the Saints and Redskins pretty close points-wise in their power ratings ... before the Colston injury. Yet the Skins are getting points, at home. And the public is on the Saints at a 73% clip. I hate making calls on my hometown teams, but this one fits the bill in every respect.
Friday Night Lights
We're not going to be taking a position on every Thursday & Friday night game this season, but this week, there just happened to be two that looked very good.
South Florida -3.5 -101 (Matchbook), 1.01 units to win 1 unit
The betting and line movement is the most important story here. The public has been decidedly on Kansas all week, yet the line has held fast at +3.5. The fact that the books been getting so many bets on Kansas, but have stubbornly left that hook out there on the 3, almost begging for more Kansas tickets, tells me a lot. Some significant losses for Kansas at RB, WR, and on the offensive line, and we just don't see them hanging with a tough, well-balanced team on the road tonight.
Much, much better baseball card tonight than yesterday. Back later.
South Florida -3.5 -101 (Matchbook), 1.01 units to win 1 unit
The betting and line movement is the most important story here. The public has been decidedly on Kansas all week, yet the line has held fast at +3.5. The fact that the books been getting so many bets on Kansas, but have stubbornly left that hook out there on the 3, almost begging for more Kansas tickets, tells me a lot. Some significant losses for Kansas at RB, WR, and on the offensive line, and we just don't see them hanging with a tough, well-balanced team on the road tonight.
Much, much better baseball card tonight than yesterday. Back later.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Thursday Night Football
Been staring at this one all week:
North Carolina +5.5 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Even after the home thrashing by Fresno State, Rutgers is still getting the love from its 2006 season. To paraphrase Rick Pitino, "Ray Rice is not walking through that door!" Changing the slideshow pictures on the left to UNC and Rutgers pictures is the absolute upper limit of my computer skills. Enjoy.
Looking at the betting percentages and line movements last night, I jotted down this list of possibilities for Saturday:
New Mexico State +25 at Nebraska
Tulane +13 v. ECU
South Carolina +7 v. Georgia
Rice +7 at Vanderbilt
Nevada +26.5 at Missouri
NC State +18.5 at Clemson
New Mexico +10 v. Arizona
Western Kentucky +28 at Alabama
Washington +20 v. Oklahoma
We won't be playing all of these (and might play some that aren't on this list), but these were situations where the public was definitely on one side all week and the line either stayed fixed or even moved in the other direction. Gonna try to have at least a few of the weekend plays up tomorrow for a boring Friday afternoon at work.
North Carolina +5.5 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Even after the home thrashing by Fresno State, Rutgers is still getting the love from its 2006 season. To paraphrase Rick Pitino, "Ray Rice is not walking through that door!" Changing the slideshow pictures on the left to UNC and Rutgers pictures is the absolute upper limit of my computer skills. Enjoy.
Looking at the betting percentages and line movements last night, I jotted down this list of possibilities for Saturday:
New Mexico State +25 at Nebraska
Tulane +13 v. ECU
South Carolina +7 v. Georgia
Rice +7 at Vanderbilt
Nevada +26.5 at Missouri
NC State +18.5 at Clemson
New Mexico +10 v. Arizona
Western Kentucky +28 at Alabama
Washington +20 v. Oklahoma
We won't be playing all of these (and might play some that aren't on this list), but these were situations where the public was definitely on one side all week and the line either stayed fixed or even moved in the other direction. Gonna try to have at least a few of the weekend plays up tomorrow for a boring Friday afternoon at work.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Late Addition
Man, we lose more games in the bottom of the 8th inning (Reds today) than should be allowed. One more tonight:
Bluejays -136 (Matchbook), 1.36 units to win 1 unit
We don't play many -130+ favorites, but we couldn't lay off this one. 45% of wagerline prefers Buehrle over Doc? I'm staring at the stats right now, and I don't get it. This one can't possibly win. Too easy.
Bluejays -136 (Matchbook), 1.36 units to win 1 unit
We don't play many -130+ favorites, but we couldn't lay off this one. 45% of wagerline prefers Buehrle over Doc? I'm staring at the stats right now, and I don't get it. This one can't possibly win. Too easy.
Wednesday Afternoon Baseball
Missed some good Romanian tennis picks this morning. Had Garcia-Lopez and Serra circled on my sheet (both at around +200), but fell asleep watching TV last night and the matches started at 5 or 6 AM this morning. But enough of my yapping, on to the early picks, lines from Matchbook:
Marlins +137, 1 unit to win 1.37 units
Two good pitchers going today, we'll take the dog with the hugely underrated Nolasco on the mound.
Reds +246, 0.5 units to win 1.23 units
Sabathia is great, no question, but Arroyo has been good also, and this number is just too high. Our chances increase if CC doesn't go the distance and the ball gets handed off to Gagne and crew in the pen. Has anybody else seen those Bronson Arroyo hot dog commercials on FSN Ohio? That's comedy gold. Back later.
Marlins +137, 1 unit to win 1.37 units
Two good pitchers going today, we'll take the dog with the hugely underrated Nolasco on the mound.
Reds +246, 0.5 units to win 1.23 units
Sabathia is great, no question, but Arroyo has been good also, and this number is just too high. Our chances increase if CC doesn't go the distance and the ball gets handed off to Gagne and crew in the pen. Has anybody else seen those Bronson Arroyo hot dog commercials on FSN Ohio? That's comedy gold. Back later.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Tuesday at the Park
A nice day for the good guys yesterday. Three baseball games for Tuesday night, lines from Matchbook:
Rays +149, 1 unit to win 1.49 units
I wonder if I can program the blog to automatically fade Dice-K every time he pitches. So far, it's worked beautifully (he's 16-2). Hoping for his usual 5 or 6 walks tonight. Eventually, some of those free base runners are going to start scoring.
Marlins +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units
Kendrick still getting a lot of love out there. Bizarre.
Reds +155, 1 unit to win 1.55 units
The name "Ramon Ramirez" is alliterative, so he's probably pretty good. The way the Brewers have been hitting righties, he doesn't really have to be.
Back to work, slackers.
Rays +149, 1 unit to win 1.49 units
I wonder if I can program the blog to automatically fade Dice-K every time he pitches. So far, it's worked beautifully (he's 16-2). Hoping for his usual 5 or 6 walks tonight. Eventually, some of those free base runners are going to start scoring.
Marlins +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units
Kendrick still getting a lot of love out there. Bizarre.
Reds +155, 1 unit to win 1.55 units
The name "Ramon Ramirez" is alliterative, so he's probably pretty good. The way the Brewers have been hitting righties, he doesn't really have to be.
Back to work, slackers.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Mr. Rodger's Neighborhood
OK, now it's football time. Just playing one of the games tonight:
Packers -3 +124 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.24 units
I'm not smart enough to figure out if ML -124, -1 -118, or this is the best way to play this, so we're going to have confidence enough in the pick to take the good juice. Is the proven lameness of Tarvaris Jackson better than the unknown with Rodgers? We don't think so. Good luck everybody.
Packers -3 +124 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.24 units
I'm not smart enough to figure out if ML -124, -1 -118, or this is the best way to play this, so we're going to have confidence enough in the pick to take the good juice. Is the proven lameness of Tarvaris Jackson better than the unknown with Rodgers? We don't think so. Good luck everybody.
Monday Night . . . . Baseball
We'll get to any football later, but first, four baseball games for tonight. Seems like a lot with a smaller number of games today, but with that +0.05 units we picked up in Romanian tennis this morning, we've got cash to burn. Lines from Matchbook:
Rays +197, 1 unit to win 1.97 units
I guess the prevailing opinion is that the Rays are gong to start fading now, but hasn't that been the prevailing opinion all season?
Reds +122, 1 unit to win 1.22 units
Better pitcher on the mound for Cincy tonight, and not impressed with the way the Brewers have been hitting lately. No Sabathia tonight, folks.
Padres +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units
Except for wins and ERA, there's not much difference between Baek and Maddux. Except, of course, that Maddux is over-rated.
Yankees +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Garland sucks. How's that for statistical analysis?
Still undecided on the football games for tonight, but if we play anything, we'll post it.
Rays +197, 1 unit to win 1.97 units
I guess the prevailing opinion is that the Rays are gong to start fading now, but hasn't that been the prevailing opinion all season?
Reds +122, 1 unit to win 1.22 units
Better pitcher on the mound for Cincy tonight, and not impressed with the way the Brewers have been hitting lately. No Sabathia tonight, folks.
Padres +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units
Except for wins and ERA, there's not much difference between Baek and Maddux. Except, of course, that Maddux is over-rated.
Yankees +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Garland sucks. How's that for statistical analysis?
Still undecided on the football games for tonight, but if we play anything, we'll post it.
Week 3 - Early Leans
When the college football lines popped up at Pinnacle yesterday evening, I jotted them down and went through and circled 12 possible picks off the top of my head:
North Carolina +5 at Rutgers
Mississippi State +10.5 v. Auburn
Nevada +26.5 at Missouri
Houston -4.5 v. Air Force
Fresno State +1 v. Wisconsin
Georgia Tech +7.5 at Virginia Tech
Central Michigan -3 at Ohio
Maryland +13 v. California
Tulane +13.5 v. East Carolina
Virginia +12.5 at Connecticut
Ohio State +10 at USC
Western Kentucky +27 at Alabama
We may not play any of these, of course, but these were the ones that jumped off the page at me. Any thoughts appreciated.
North Carolina +5 at Rutgers
Mississippi State +10.5 v. Auburn
Nevada +26.5 at Missouri
Houston -4.5 v. Air Force
Fresno State +1 v. Wisconsin
Georgia Tech +7.5 at Virginia Tech
Central Michigan -3 at Ohio
Maryland +13 v. California
Tulane +13.5 v. East Carolina
Virginia +12.5 at Connecticut
Ohio State +10 at USC
Western Kentucky +27 at Alabama
We may not play any of these, of course, but these were the ones that jumped off the page at me. Any thoughts appreciated.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Monday Tennis at the Open
Of course, I'm referring to the BCR Open in Romania. What did you think I was talking about?
F. Serra +110 (WSEX) over N. Devilder, 0.50 units to win 0.55 units
M. Granollers +130 (Bookmaker) over P. Starace, 0.50 units to win 0.65 units
Probably passing on the U.S. Open final.
F. Serra +110 (WSEX) over N. Devilder, 0.50 units to win 0.55 units
M. Granollers +130 (Bookmaker) over P. Starace, 0.50 units to win 0.65 units
Probably passing on the U.S. Open final.
WNBA By Default
Nothing really going on in sports today, so we're left with girl's basketball. How lame:
Houston +5.5 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.50 units
Seriously, it looks like we're just going with the Texans and Ravens in the NFL today. We considered a lot of other plays (Falcons, Bucs, Dolphins, Browns, etc.) but just haven't been able to commit to anything else yet. Haven't talked about tonight or tomorrow yet, so it's possible there might be one more. Enjoy the big day, folks.
Houston +5.5 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.50 units
Seriously, it looks like we're just going with the Texans and Ravens in the NFL today. We considered a lot of other plays (Falcons, Bucs, Dolphins, Browns, etc.) but just haven't been able to commit to anything else yet. Haven't talked about tonight or tomorrow yet, so it's possible there might be one more. Enjoy the big day, folks.
Baseball?
Why are they even bothering to play on Week 1? Just one play today:
Kansas City Royals +155 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.55 units
Greinke's too good to get a number like that.
Kansas City Royals +155 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.55 units
Greinke's too good to get a number like that.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
One More
That failed fake punt by Cincinnati on their own 22-yard line was tough to swallow. One more late night, and then I think I'll call it a day.
UTEP +26.5 -102 (Matchbook), 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Everybody associated with the Miners has been looking forward to hosting this game for a long time. 77% on the road fave, but I'm still not convinced that the Longhorns are good enough to justify this line. Good luck and good night.
UTEP +26.5 -102 (Matchbook), 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Everybody associated with the Miners has been looking forward to hosting this game for a long time. 77% on the road fave, but I'm still not convinced that the Longhorns are good enough to justify this line. Good luck and good night.
Are They Still Playing Baseball?
It's hard to make myself do the baseball homework with all the football excitement going on. A quick four-pack for tonight, then back to the pigskin. Lines from Matchbook, all risking 1 unit:
Nationals +132
Reds +121
Astros +103
Mariners +112
The only other one we considered was the 2nd game of the OAK/BAL double-header (backing Outman and the A's), but after the first game got rained out, the pitchers have changed and we're not messing with it. Some awful tackling by the Temple Owls in the early game, so we were lucky to cash that one in the end. Probably at least one more football game tonight, but gonna take a break and watch the Cincy game for a while.
Nationals +132
Reds +121
Astros +103
Mariners +112
The only other one we considered was the 2nd game of the OAK/BAL double-header (backing Outman and the A's), but after the first game got rained out, the pitchers have changed and we're not messing with it. Some awful tackling by the Temple Owls in the early game, so we were lucky to cash that one in the end. Probably at least one more football game tonight, but gonna take a break and watch the Cincy game for a while.
Afternoon Additions
Tropical Storm Hannah has flickered my lights off and on a couple of times this morning already, so I better go ahead and get these in now. Two more for the afternoon, lines from Matchbook:
New Mexico +2.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
The better team is at home, getting points, and facing a big public favorite. Sounds good to me. Struggled with whether to play it this way or ML +116, but ultimately decided to take the points.
Temple +7 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit
Another home dog with bite. Really like the way they're putting this team together in Philly, and the UConn offense is questionable at best.
Probably at least one more for the night games before the day is done, and of course, baseball still pending.
New Mexico +2.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
The better team is at home, getting points, and facing a big public favorite. Sounds good to me. Struggled with whether to play it this way or ML +116, but ultimately decided to take the points.
Temple +7 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit
Another home dog with bite. Really like the way they're putting this team together in Philly, and the UConn offense is questionable at best.
Probably at least one more for the night games before the day is done, and of course, baseball still pending.
Friday, September 5, 2008
The National Football League
Thank God. Starting slow with only two one-unit plays in Week 1, although we may add to it as the week goes on.
Houston Texans +7 (-110) (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Public loves the Steelers at home here, but the line's not moving. They have a great passing game and a rapidly improving defense.
Baltimore Ravens +3 (-110) (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I've shared my thoughts on the Ravens before. This line is +1 elsewhere, which is a huge difference. Not sure how that happened, but I'd get on it before it moves. Incidentally, the Texans are also 6 or 6.5 elsewhere. BetUS is weird.
Houston Texans +7 (-110) (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Public loves the Steelers at home here, but the line's not moving. They have a great passing game and a rapidly improving defense.
Baltimore Ravens +3 (-110) (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I've shared my thoughts on the Ravens before. This line is +1 elsewhere, which is a huge difference. Not sure how that happened, but I'd get on it before it moves. Incidentally, the Texans are also 6 or 6.5 elsewhere. BetUS is weird.
Friday Night Baseball
A lot of maybes today, but not a lot that we could agree on (don't comment to correct my grammar there, nobody talks like that). Just two made the cut, lines from Matchbook:
A's +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Braden definitely looks better than Waters to me. 65% like the Orioles here? Weird.
Marlins +103, 1 unit to win 1.03
I was surprised when I looked at Nolasco's numbers this season. He has been exceptional, which I didn't really expect.
Grover will have NFL picks at some point, and we'll be back tomorrow with baseball and a few college additions. Good luck everybody.
A's +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Braden definitely looks better than Waters to me. 65% like the Orioles here? Weird.
Marlins +103, 1 unit to win 1.03
I was surprised when I looked at Nolasco's numbers this season. He has been exceptional, which I didn't really expect.
Grover will have NFL picks at some point, and we'll be back tomorrow with baseball and a few college additions. Good luck everybody.
Early College Football Plays
Just in case there are folks who can't get to a computer in the morning, I thought I would post 3 plays that we're already on. Lines from Matchbook:
Tulane +30 -103, 2.06 units to win 2 units
After the prime-time TV spanking of Clemson last Saturday, there just has to be value built into this line. There just has to be. Alabama isn't all of a sudden a national championship contender because Clemson laid an egg in a big game (again).
Cincinnati +21.5 -104, 2.08 units to win 2 units
If Grutza can give Cincy 75-80% of what Mauk did last season, this one looks really good. Both blew out patsy opponents last week, but at least Cincy did it against a reigning conference champion (Oklahoma played Chattanooga, who were 2-9 last year in their division).
Houston +15.5 -105, 2.1 units to win 2 units
I like this one so much, it's almost definitely a loser. A really solid, well-balanced Houston team against a defense-less Oklahoma State. Doesn't hurt my affection for this play that 75% of the wagerline bets are on Okie State, yet the line has dropped a full point in the past couple of days.
There will almost definitely be some additions tomorrow (1-unit plays, probably), but these are the favorites so far. Still working on baseball for tonight, and hoping to get NFL up today before the end of the work day. Back later.
Tulane +30 -103, 2.06 units to win 2 units
After the prime-time TV spanking of Clemson last Saturday, there just has to be value built into this line. There just has to be. Alabama isn't all of a sudden a national championship contender because Clemson laid an egg in a big game (again).
Cincinnati +21.5 -104, 2.08 units to win 2 units
If Grutza can give Cincy 75-80% of what Mauk did last season, this one looks really good. Both blew out patsy opponents last week, but at least Cincy did it against a reigning conference champion (Oklahoma played Chattanooga, who were 2-9 last year in their division).
Houston +15.5 -105, 2.1 units to win 2 units
I like this one so much, it's almost definitely a loser. A really solid, well-balanced Houston team against a defense-less Oklahoma State. Doesn't hurt my affection for this play that 75% of the wagerline bets are on Okie State, yet the line has dropped a full point in the past couple of days.
There will almost definitely be some additions tomorrow (1-unit plays, probably), but these are the favorites so far. Still working on baseball for tonight, and hoping to get NFL up today before the end of the work day. Back later.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Thursday Triple Threat
Three picks, three different sports, lines from Matchbook:
MLB
Padres +218, 1 unit to win 2.18 units
Don't tell my wife there might be hard-earned money on the line with Shawn Estes.
Tennis
A. Roddick +139 over N. Djokovic, 1 unit to win 1.39 units
If Djokovic is faking his injuries, as Roddick seems to believe, I'm in trouble here. But I watched both of their matches Tuesday and Andy looks much sharper and in much better shape.
College Football
South Carolina/Vanderbilt Under 41 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
This one might be too obvious (see the Money Line Journal today), but the wagerline bets are about 60% on the Over (Overs on TV games are fun!), and I think the 68 points these teams put up last week are misleading. A lot of gamblers out there won't do much more research than looking at last week's scores. Defenses superior to the offenses on both these teams.
Good luck everybody. We're going to try and have some NFL and college football plays up during the day tomorrow.
MLB
Padres +218, 1 unit to win 2.18 units
Don't tell my wife there might be hard-earned money on the line with Shawn Estes.
Tennis
A. Roddick +139 over N. Djokovic, 1 unit to win 1.39 units
If Djokovic is faking his injuries, as Roddick seems to believe, I'm in trouble here. But I watched both of their matches Tuesday and Andy looks much sharper and in much better shape.
College Football
South Carolina/Vanderbilt Under 41 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
This one might be too obvious (see the Money Line Journal today), but the wagerline bets are about 60% on the Over (Overs on TV games are fun!), and I think the 68 points these teams put up last week are misleading. A lot of gamblers out there won't do much more research than looking at last week's scores. Defenses superior to the offenses on both these teams.
Good luck everybody. We're going to try and have some NFL and college football plays up during the day tomorrow.
Sports Gambling is Easy
I just received another unsolicited football guide in the mail called the "Insiders Betting Digest." I was excited to discover tons of great advice inside, including the following gems. The bold headlines are mine, and the quotes are from the Guide.
Boring Offenses = Always Play Under
"If the Ravens are playing the Titans (yawn), you can be pretty sure that it will be a low-scoring game and the under is the smart wager."
- Lucky for us, the Ravens do play the Titans on October 5 this season. So, Under it is. It makes it easy when you don't even have to think about what the number might be.
But if the Patriots played the Bengals...
"Both teams can light up the scoreboard, so the over bet could be the smart wager (although the oddsmaker also knows this and will set the total high)."
- Wait, that part in parentheses makes it sound like maybe you have to actually look at the number and make some kind of decision. Too much effort. Don't like it. Moving on to the next one.
Moneyline Favorites = Sure Thing
"A moneyline bet is good if you can pick the winner with confidence but are not too sure about the margin of victory. Granted you may not get the best odds without any points given, especially when betting on the favorites, but if you parlay a few favorites together, you can still get a very nice payout."
- Got it. Take the obvious favorites on the moneyline and parlay them all together. Apparently, this is the way to achieve a very nice payout. Any more advice?
Always Take the Favorite
"Most recreational bettors flock to favorites, and why not, as the favorite is the team that should win the game."
- Indeed. Why not? I am going to make soooooooo much money this season.
Nothing for us in the afternoon today. Back later with tonight's action.
Boring Offenses = Always Play Under
"If the Ravens are playing the Titans (yawn), you can be pretty sure that it will be a low-scoring game and the under is the smart wager."
- Lucky for us, the Ravens do play the Titans on October 5 this season. So, Under it is. It makes it easy when you don't even have to think about what the number might be.
But if the Patriots played the Bengals...
"Both teams can light up the scoreboard, so the over bet could be the smart wager (although the oddsmaker also knows this and will set the total high)."
- Wait, that part in parentheses makes it sound like maybe you have to actually look at the number and make some kind of decision. Too much effort. Don't like it. Moving on to the next one.
Moneyline Favorites = Sure Thing
"A moneyline bet is good if you can pick the winner with confidence but are not too sure about the margin of victory. Granted you may not get the best odds without any points given, especially when betting on the favorites, but if you parlay a few favorites together, you can still get a very nice payout."
- Got it. Take the obvious favorites on the moneyline and parlay them all together. Apparently, this is the way to achieve a very nice payout. Any more advice?
Always Take the Favorite
"Most recreational bettors flock to favorites, and why not, as the favorite is the team that should win the game."
- Indeed. Why not? I am going to make soooooooo much money this season.
Nothing for us in the afternoon today. Back later with tonight's action.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
The Boys Who Cried Wolf (& Miner!)
Two baseball plays for tonight, lines from Matchbook (shouldn't they be paying us for all these free plugs?):
Astros +208, 1 unit to win 2.08 units
After that easy stress-free Houston win last night, we're going back to the well one more time with Mr. Wolf vs. Dempster.
Tigers -116, 1.16 units to win 1 unit
Zach Miner and the disappointing Tigers are favorites against Jon Garland and THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL? That's too weird to pass up.
Zito comes through for us again and we're up +0.01 units on the day. Retirement, here we come.
Astros +208, 1 unit to win 2.08 units
After that easy stress-free Houston win last night, we're going back to the well one more time with Mr. Wolf vs. Dempster.
Tigers -116, 1.16 units to win 1 unit
Zach Miner and the disappointing Tigers are favorites against Jon Garland and THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL? That's too weird to pass up.
Zito comes through for us again and we're up +0.01 units on the day. Retirement, here we come.
ESPN Makes Our Job Easier
You may remember that I'm a big fan of the Over on the Packers' wins this year. I think they're a contender to win the NFC. THankfully for us, ESPN, like others, continues to underestimate them, here ranking them #10 in their preseason poll.
The best part, by far, is their "expert comment," wherein Kevin Seifert suggests that their "backup QB situation is a bit worrisome." ESPN felt that this was the most insightful comment among their experts and featured it in their rankings.
Apparently ESPN's experts feel totally comfortable with Cleo Lemon (Jaguars backup) or Jim Sorgi (Colts backup). Only the Pack will falter if they lose their starting QB.
The best part, by far, is their "expert comment," wherein Kevin Seifert suggests that their "backup QB situation is a bit worrisome." ESPN felt that this was the most insightful comment among their experts and featured it in their rankings.
Apparently ESPN's experts feel totally comfortable with Cleo Lemon (Jaguars backup) or Jim Sorgi (Colts backup). Only the Pack will falter if they lose their starting QB.
Braves New World (& Zito!)
Can't wait to hear from Grover any longer, games are starting. Two for this afternoon, lines from Matchbook:
Braves +129, 1 unit to win 1.29 units
Campillo hasn't been sharp recently, but we still think he's the better pitcher, and the Braves hitters are performing well.
Giants +202, 0.5 units to win 1.01 units
We haven't backed Zito, a blog favorite, in a while. Good spot and number for him today.
Back with tonight's games later. NFL starts tomorrow......
Braves +129, 1 unit to win 1.29 units
Campillo hasn't been sharp recently, but we still think he's the better pitcher, and the Braves hitters are performing well.
Giants +202, 0.5 units to win 1.01 units
We haven't backed Zito, a blog favorite, in a while. Good spot and number for him today.
Back with tonight's games later. NFL starts tomorrow......
U.S. Open - The Multi-Gender Edition
Quarterfinal matches today. Playing one from the boys and a rare pick from the girls, lines from Matchbook:
A. Murray -175 over J. Del Potro, 1.75 units to win 1 unit
Venus Williams +130 over Serena Williams, 1 unit to win 1.30 units
Richard Williams said he's going to flip a coin to decide who he will order to win his daughters' match, and +130 is better than 50%, right?
A. Murray -175 over J. Del Potro, 1.75 units to win 1 unit
Venus Williams +130 over Serena Williams, 1 unit to win 1.30 units
Richard Williams said he's going to flip a coin to decide who he will order to win his daughters' match, and +130 is better than 50%, right?
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Tuesday Baseball - Back to Work Edition
Getting up and going to work is no fun at all. I probably won't keep showing up at my job if I win the lottery. Two for tonight, lines from Matchbook:
Astros +192, 1 unit to win 1.92 units
More anti-Zambrano than pro-Backe.
Padres +182, 1 unit to win 1.82 units
Obviously, San Diego can't hit most nights, but the difference between Baek and Kershaw is not this big.
If Robredo or Andreev pull off the big upset at the Open today, I'll be kicking myself for sitting out.
Astros +192, 1 unit to win 1.92 units
More anti-Zambrano than pro-Backe.
Padres +182, 1 unit to win 1.82 units
Obviously, San Diego can't hit most nights, but the difference between Baek and Kershaw is not this big.
If Robredo or Andreev pull off the big upset at the Open today, I'll be kicking myself for sitting out.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Labor Day Evening Plays
I'll leave the football to Hambone. Two baseball plays for tonight; always fun to play the worst teams in baseball. We'll look for a split and a nice profit on the evening.
San Diego Padres +156 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.56 units.
Chris Young is a decent pitcher, certainly value at this price against an overpriced .500 team and Maddux, who is decent at this age but certainly not dominant.
Seattle Mariners +169 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.69 units.
Seattle has the better pitcher tonight (Silva vs. Harrison). I'm not even gonna pretend that there's any reasonable argument that they have an advantage at the plate, but +169 is enough to take a shot here.
San Diego Padres +156 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.56 units.
Chris Young is a decent pitcher, certainly value at this price against an overpriced .500 team and Maddux, who is decent at this age but certainly not dominant.
Seattle Mariners +169 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.69 units.
Seattle has the better pitcher tonight (Silva vs. Harrison). I'm not even gonna pretend that there's any reasonable argument that they have an advantage at the plate, but +169 is enough to take a shot here.
Holiday Afternoon Baseball
A few possiblities, but the two of us only agreed on this one for the afternoon:
Astros +115 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Oswalt starting to look like Oswalt again. We're happy to get him as the slight dog to Marquis.
Back later with tonight's baseball games. Passing on Rutgers/Fresno, because I think I could talk myself into either side if I wanted to. Still looking at UCLA.
Astros +115 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Oswalt starting to look like Oswalt again. We're happy to get him as the slight dog to Marquis.
Back later with tonight's baseball games. Passing on Rutgers/Fresno, because I think I could talk myself into either side if I wanted to. Still looking at UCLA.
Labor Day at the Open
The tennis picks have been going my way in the last Grand Slam of the season, and hopefully, we can keep it going a few more days. Just one for today:
M. Fish +140 (Matchbook) over G. Monfils, 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Fish has been good to me. I think this one should be very close. Back with baseball later.
M. Fish +140 (Matchbook) over G. Monfils, 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Fish has been good to me. I think this one should be very close. Back with baseball later.
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