Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Disrespecting Wilt


What a crock of shit. ESPN has an article today on Dwight Howard becoming the youngest player to reach 5,000 rebounds after last night's game. Yes, he is younger at 23 yrs old than Wilt was when he got number 5,000 (Wilt was 25), but not once in the AP/ESPN article does the author mention that it took Howard MORE THAN FOUR YEARS to accomplish what only took Wilt a little over TWO YEARS to accomplish. You see, back in Wilt's day, they had this thing called college that players would go to before the NBA. Sounds crazy, I know. Wilt didn't start playing in the NBA until he was 23, and got to 5,000 at age 25. Dwight played his first game at age 19, and didn't get to 5,000 until last night, at the age of 23. Doesn't that have to be mentioned in the article somewhere? You know, that Chamberlain was twice as dominant as Howard? The articles I've seen today ("Howard smashes Wilt's record," etc.) leave the impression that Howard has somehow been better than Wilt because he did something younger. It's the same thing with Kobe and Lebron - everytime they become the "youngest" to do something, nobody mentions the fact that they skipped college and went pro straight out of high school. A completely meaningless collection of "records"

OK, I feel better now. And with baseball still several days away and NBA/NHL in the final games on the regular season, where it's hard to guess what the motivations of some of the teams might be, at least there's something posted on here this week.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Sunday Afternoon NBA

Screw the NCAA tournament. Dug a big hole the first weekend and then started forcing plays to try and fix the damage. Rookie mistake which I should not be making after all these years. So, no more college plays unless it's solid, and don't like either of the games today. One early game in the NBA:

Hawks +3.5 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Public is predictably all over the Lake Show, but the Hawks have enough talent to win this game at home. Line move back from -4 seals the deal.

Can't wait for baseball season to start.......

Friday, March 27, 2009

Friday Night Underdogs


After the 7th gimme Purdue layup rolled off the rim last night, I changed the channel. Very painful. On to Friday:

College Basketball

Arizona +9 +105, 2 units to win 2.1 units

No significant public consensus here, just a feeling that Arizona is getting a couple of extra points here because of the constant refrain you hear on ESPN of "they barely got into the tournament in the first place" and such. Louisville has not dominated its first two opponents (yes, they won by 20 vs. Morehead State, but only led by 2 at the half), and their free throw shooting has been horrendous (seriously, 50% combined in the first 2 games - I know 10-year-olds who can make half of them). At the very least, the future pros on the Wildcat roster have incentive to play hard and boost their draft stock. Chase "The Great White Hype" Budinger can't afford to fall any further, can he?

Syracuse +1 -102, 2.04 units to win 2 units

File this under if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I haven't been on the same side as the Cuse much this season, but they have often been overrated (or, at least, I thought so). Tonight, as the lesser seed and slight underdog, the tables may have turned to some degree. The teams that have had success against the Orange's 2-3 zone this year, not surprisingly, have been teams (Louisville, Villanova, Georgetown) who have several capable 3-point shooters on the roster. Oklahoma is not such a team. With nobody hitting from deep, the zone doesn't get stretched out, and Blake Griffin is going to be double and triple teamed all night. If it comes down to free throws at the end, Syracuse will need to make sure to keep the ball out of the hands of Onuaku and Jackson, but everybody else is solid.

NBA

Hawks +1 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

Public likes the defending champs, even with KG still playing limited minutes, but the line isn't budging. After failing to beat the Magic, the Celtics may be on cruise control the rest of the regular season, but after last season's playoff series loss, this game probably still means something to the Hawks. We'll take the home dog.

Good luck everybody.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Thursday Sweet 16


Holy crap, I think we made money on hoops picks last night. Can't remember the last time that happened. Just one for tonight:

Purdue +6.5 +103, 2 units to win 2.06 units

If this loses by 7, I'll be a little upset, but the half-point calculator says that this line is superior to +7 -108 (the other option at Matchbook), so we're going this way. I haven't heard anybody saying much about Purdue this week, after they barely squeaked by their opponents, but everybody on the ESPN was raving about how UConn dominated their first 2 opponents. Of course, nobody takes the time to discuss how Purdue's opponents were much better than the teams that UConn got to face. Pomeroy's predictions haven't fared so well up to this point (I know, small sample size), but it's still a useful tool for comparing teams statistically, and Pomeroy's system says that UConn wins this game by only 5. That's even better support for Purdue than it looks, as pointed out to me in an e-mail from Grover, when you consider that Pomeroy's ratings for UConn include all of the games that Dyson played, and he won't be there tonight, and on the flipside, Purdue's ratings include all of the games when Hummel was out with an injury but he will be playing tonight. So, the numbers may be overrating UConn and underrating Purdue tonight, which sounds good when you've got the underdog. We can't quantify what the effect might be of all the UConn sanction talk might be, but it's possible that this could serve as a further distraction. Go Boilermakers.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

I Picked Every Game With 103 Juice

OK, not really, this is just a weird coincidence. Wednesday's hoops:

NBA

Hawks -6.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Clippers +6.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 units

College Basketball

San Diego State -3.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Oregon State +3 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units


Kept it short so I didn't push the baseball post too far down. Good luck.

Damn You, FiveThirtyEight.Com!

This was so much easier last year, when nobody except baseball nerds and savvy gamblers knew the name Nate Silver. Now, thanks to his election predictions (and, to be fair, the fortunes he made us all on the Rays last year) he's a media sensation. And as a result, the books appear to be wise to the predictive power of PECOTA. Here's how you can tell that the books are on to us: the Win Total Over/Under on the Royals this year is 76.5.

Anyway, the pickings are slim this year. In the space below I've cut and pasted my email to Hambone from Monday with my initial MLB Win Total leans. I expect to post final picks some time next week, after discussion and opportunity to look at the projections of CHONE and other models. One thought I've had is to maybe make a lot of smaller plays on several of these teams, as opposed to last year's massive cash dump on a couple obvious plays. Your input is welcome and encouraged in the comments.

Baltimore Orioles Over 73.5 +110 (The Greek): it's even money elsewhere, PECOTA projects 77 wins and one of the best offenses in baseball, which makes sense when you consider their personnel. If they find some pitching they might get to .500.

Chi White Sox Under 79.5 -170 (BetUS), Under 78.5 -120 (WSEX
): Iffy here because PECOTA always sells the Sox short because they're so old- projects 74 wins in 2009. It expects everyone to get injured, usually one or two of the senior citizens defies the odds.

Colorado Rockies Under 77.5 -125 (BetUS): PECOTA says 72. I like this one. If you look at the projects behind the 72 wins, none of them look overly pessimistic and some even look a little optimistic.

Detroit Tigers Over 82.5 +105 (BetUS): PECOTA says 85. PECOTA and +105 = value.

Florida Marlins Under 76.5 -130 (WSEX): Good WSEX line-shopping value here, it's -135 and -140 at the other two sites. PECOTA says 70 wins. PECOTA also expects Volstad and Maybin to kinda suck, which concerns me, but what do I know?

Houston Astros Under 74.5 -135 (The Greek): Nope, I'm not gonna spout an overused movie quote here. Anyway, value here with BetUS at -150. PECOTA projects 68 wins. This one is the rare play that goes in the "Definite" pile.

LAAofA Under 89.5 -130 (BetUS): eh. PECOTA says 83. It's a definite play without the juice, with the juice I'm less enthused.

L.A. Dodgers Over 82.5 -200 (BetUS) or Over 83.5 -150 (WSEX): I guess the books dealt with the Manny uncertainty differently, maybe WSEX gave them an extra game to cushion against his likely signing back in February. I like the WSEX line a lot better, I'll check it in the line comparison tool to make sure but it seems like a no-brainer. PECOTA says 91 with Manny on board. Giggity giggity.

Mil Brewers Over 80.5 -125 (WSEX): Good value again at WSEX, with the price at -140 and -145 elsewhere. It pays to line-shop. PECOTA says 85. I'm concerned about them getting too far behind the Cubs and getting cheap at the trading deadline and moving Prince Fielder or something, but I think they'll stay close.

Minnesota Twins Under 83.5 -105 (BetUS): PECOTA says 76. Book it. Easy as that.

Tampa Bay Rays Over 88 -150 (WSEX):
Dare we tempt fate again? The team that made Nate Silver famous is projected to 95 wins this year. That's a lot of wins.

Toronto Blue Jays Under 79.5 -140 (WSEX): It's Under 80.5 -190 elsewhere, but this looks better to me. PECOTA says 73. If the Rays are gonna win 95, the Os are gonna win 77, and the Sox and Yanks are the Sox and Yanks, this team is in deep trouble.

Washington Nationals Over 71.5 -125 (WSEX): More WSEX value, with the price at -130 and -135 elsewhere. PECOTA says 76. Not the best value here, but if there's any value, I'm gonna play it, if only as a way to keep myself sane as I pay thousands for season tickets and spend countless hours at the ballpark to watch an also-ran for the fifth consecutive summer. It's exhausting.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

More on Pomeroy, My Favorite Subject

My usefulness around here during February and March is limited to asking stupid questions about the usefulness of everyone's favorite predictive tool for college basketball, the Pomeroy Ratings.

In today's episode, I ask, once again, whether Pomeroy undervalues the elite teams. I've previously asked whether the nation's best teams are undervalued by his efficiency statistics because those teams tend to play a lot of garbage time, which does not reflect their true quality but the data nevertheless goes into the Pomeroy numbers. As an example, I used the Duke beatdown of Maryland in February, when the Blue Devils ran out to a 40 point lead about 2/3rds of the way through the game and then coasted home to a final margin that was about equal to that. The teams at the top of the traditional rankings do this on a regular basis, yet those waning minutes are considered by Pomeroy to be just as important as the waning minutes in a close game. Today I'll take a new look at whether this might lead to a slight undervaluation of the elite teams as compared to the rest of the country.

The Basketball Prospectus predictions for 2008 and 2009 as compared to the seeds' actual performance, suggests that there may be some truth to this. Let's look first at the success of the top seeds in advancing to the Sweet 16. Since the tournament switched to the 64-team format in 1985 there have been exactly 100 top seeds. How convenient for us! Of those top seeds, 88 have advanced to the Sweet 16, for a ... wait for it ... 88% success rate. However, of the eight pre-tournament regional bracket predictions issued by Basketball Prospectus, only one #1 seed was given a better than 88% chance of advancing to the second round: Kansas in 2008, which was bestowed with a 93.6% chance of advancing, mostly because they were the Pomeroy overall #1 and their 8/9 draw was ridiculously weak according to the Pomeroy ratings. The other seven #1 seeds? UNC 2008 got a 70.99% chance of advancing, Memphis 2008: 84.3%, UCLA 2008: 77.86. Moving on to 2009, Pitt was given a 72.07% chance of advancing, Louisville got a 79.85%, UConn got a 70.35% shot, and UNC got a 79.61%.

We know that all 8 of these teams advanced, but that's not what's important. What is important is that these eight predictions average out to only a 78.58% chance of advancing, almost 10% lower than the historical data would suggest. So, either: (1) Basketball Prospectus thought the 2008 and 2009 #1 seeds teams were weaker than the average crop of #1 seeds historically; (2) the 2008-2009 #1 seeds were extraordinarily unlucky in their 8/9 draws, or (3) Basketball Prospectus and Pomeroy are undervaluing the top seeds.

Running the data with final four likelihood results in similar findings. 43 of 96 #1seeds have made the final four over the years, for a 44.79% chance of Final Four advancement historically. The BP/Pomeroy numbers are far more pessimistic for the 2008 and 2009 teams, averaging out to a 37.68% even with the 2008 Kansas squad getting an amazing 61% chance of advancing.

Does this mean anything? It's hard to say. The sample size of 8 #1 seeds is small, to the point where a single Pomeroy divergence from conventional wisdom (like Memphis, the #1 Pomeroy team in 2009, being a 2 seed that is twice as likely as UConn to advance to the Final Four) impacts the data. Still, I think there's enough disparity between history and the projections to at least ask some questions.

Of course, it is also worth noting that the one team given a likelihood of advancement to the Sweet 16 and Final 4 greater than historical percentages for #1 seeds was the 2008 Kansas team, the only one of these eight that has a national title under its belt as of this writing. That certainly had some value for the folks who read this blog regularly.

For the record, it seems that Pomeroy is well aware that the data has some minor shortcomings- for example, with respect to Gonzaga's amazingly high projections in the 2009 South Region and their impact on UNC's percentages, they wrote the following:

"Second on the list of apparent log5 absurdities [the Memphis numbers were the first] is the chance of Gonzaga winning the title. With the Zags' last marquee game being a humiliating loss in Spokane to Memphis, there's some well-founded skepticism that their chances of escaping the South region could approach a healthy UNC's chances."

I guess that the one thing we can take from this is that the rankings are not gospel, but are simply a useful predictive tool. I imagine even Pomeroy would agree with that sentiment.

Tune in later this week, when the coming baseball season finally gives me something to write about besides bizarre nitpicky breakdowns of predictive models.

Monday, March 23, 2009

These Teams Aren't In My NCAA Bracket

Two more college basketball losers for Monday night:

Oakland +3 -103

Vermont +1 -109


Each to win 1 unit.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Sunday Night - Just NBA Losers

A couple from the pro game for tonight:

Nets +6 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Kings +4.5 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units


A couple of home dogs to stoke my frustration this evening. I'm predicting outcomes like the Bulls last night - tied at the end of the 3rd quarter and then play terribly in the 4th. Good times.

Sunday Afternoon

Gotta go to the office today, so getting these in quickly:

College Basketball

Arizona State +2 +107, 2 units to win 2.14 units

Pendergraph can set up camp down low against the Orange zone, and the Sun Devils have 3-pt bombers who can take advantage from the perimeter. I wonder if the folks at N.C. State still think Herb Sendek is too boring?

Oklahoma State +8 +109, 2 units to win 2.18 units

Cowboys don't have a lot of size, but neither does Pitt despite their good rebounding numbers. OK State is going to run and drive, which gives them a good chance of getting Blair in foul trouble, which has hurt Pitt in other games this season.

NBA

Rockets +3.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit


Line looks a little short for a San Antonio home game. Rockets playing well without T-Mac and with Manu still injured, the Spurs are just Duncan, Parker, and a bunch of scrubs and has-beens.

Back later if I have time to give y'all some more fades.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Saturday Evening Post


Getting killed in the tourney so far, so just a couple more tonight:

College Basketball

LSU +12.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units


Normally, the line move would have scared me off, but we're going with the theory that the line move is more a result of Lawson's status changing from game-time decision to probable, rather than a sign that the professional gamblers are pounding the Heels. I was trying to think of ACC teams that might be similar to LSU (several long, athletic players between 6-6 & 6-8) and I came up with FSU, Wake, and BC, all of whom gave the Tar Heels fits this year. Not predicting the outright upset, because I think my head would explode if I had to listen to Roy Williams afterwards explaining how he didn't really care about winning the tournament anyway.

NBA

Bulls +3.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit


This one is horrendous. Fugly. Awful. Go Bulls.

Good luck everybody.

Round 2, Day 1

Well, the Mormons are really letting us down so far. One pick so far for today:

Memphis -9.5 -112, 2.24 units to win 2 units

No public consensus here, but we really like this one anyway. I think Memphis' close game with Northridge in the first round gives us good value here today (on top of all the Conference USA bashing that's been going on the past week or two) against a Maryland team that is just not very good. One good player (Vasquez) surrounded by a bunch of role players. If that one player was a dominant player, especially a big man, then maybe we'd be concerned, but Vasquez isn't going to be enough to do it again today. The Terps have gone as far as they can go, and farther than they should have gone in the first place. Luck runs out today in a blowout. Line just keeps climbing.

Friday, March 20, 2009

The End of the First Round

OK, a couple more, then on to tomorrow:

Utah -1.5 -102, 2.04 units to win 2 units

Holy crap, a favorite. In our defense, Utah did open as the underdog but the books have been steadily moving the line until Utah is now the favorite, and it's not because a lot of recreational bettors are on the Utes or anything. I don't know if there has ever been a #12 seed (they always win! always!) that has been picked in more brackets than Arizona this year. Nobody seems to mind that the only reason they are even in is because the committee didn't want to end their streak if it was even close. Arizona is a very shallow team, and rely heavily on Hill, Budinger, and Wise to do all of the scoring. Because they can't let any of those guys (especially Hill) get into foul trouble, we'll probably see a lot of zone defense, which allows Utah's 3-point snipers (Borha, Green) room to shoot. No matter what defense Arizona plays, they are terrible on that end of the court - #135 nationally by Pomeroy's stats. Utah is #20. Arizona only won two games (Oregon, Oregon St.) away from home all season. TWO! Etc, etc, etc.

Wisconsin +2.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Grover is always wary of Wisconsin because the stats guys always seem to have them rated higher than they end up performing. But, even looking at these teams with that caveat, this matchup looks virtually even to me. And the books aren't willing to let the line go any higher than 2.5 or 3 on FSU even though they are getting 3 bets on FSU for every Wisconsin bet that comes in. Pomeroy has Wisconsin winning this game by 1, and we'll take the points in a toss-up and give the books credit for knowing something here.

I think I'll take a night off from getting killed in the NBA and go find a bar to watch the college games. Good night everybody.

Friday Afternoon Brackets

Nice job, BYU. Good effort. OK, moving on. Just found time to get to a computer, so getting these in as quickly as possible:

Stephen F. Austin +11.5 +101, 2 units to win 2.02 units

With all the press that Syracuse has gotten lately, shouldn't this line be moving toward 20, instead of toward 10? Really, this line is fishy as hell. Big support for the Cuse as expected, but that line is going the other way. Pomeroy has Austin ranked as the #13 defensive team in the country (defensive efficiency). Not in their conference, not among mid-majors, in the country! I would have never guessed. That is insanely good for team in the Southland Conference. If the Orange showboaters decide, as usual, that they would rather go for the highlight reel plays instead of the smart plays, it's going to be a long day for them.

Cornell +12.5 -108, 2.16 units to win 2 units

Public big on Mizzou, but line not going that way today. Cornell has everything you want in an underdog trying to get the cover. They can score, averaging 74 points per game, and they can shoot (48% FG%, 42% 3pt%, 73% FT%). They even have decent size for an Ivy school, and Jeff Foote is Exhibit A. Foote is 7-0 and averages 12 points and 7 rebounds per game, so he's not just a big stiff. Because they have a couple of big bodies, they haven't lost before the game even starts, like Chattanooga vs. UConn yesterday, due to matchup problems. Go Big Red.

Back later with tonight's picks.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Knights Who Say NIT!


Just one play from the NIT tonight:

Rhode Island +1 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Maybe all the bracket fun is distracting the public from Cornley's injury?

Back later tonight or early Friday morning. Good luck everybody.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Lords Of The Dance

The Big Dance starts Thursday, and we're playing 3 games for opening day.

BYU -2.5 -110, 2.2 units to win 2 units

The Mountain West probably sounds like a league of chumps to the general public, but there were several good/decent teams in that conference this year - BYU, Utah, San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming. So, I don't think BYU's statistical edge in virtually every important category (FG%, FG% allowed, 3pt% & allowed, FT%, assist/turnover ratios, etc.) should be disregarded. A&M rebounds a little better, but that's about it. BYU better offensively and especially defensively. Pomeroy has them winning by 6 points, Sagarin by 4. This is not one of our usual anti-public plays, as the consensus only slightly favors Texas A & M (consensus couldn't be too high as A&M is not only the underdog but also the lower seed), but the line has already moved from -2 to -2.5 as of Wednesday.

Minnesota +4 +101, 2 units to win 2.02 units

The Big Ten is also a conference that has been getting bashed in the media for underperforming, but Pomeroy has that conference ranked 5th overall which is only 1 worse than the Big 12 (home of Minnesota's opponent, Texas). Texas better offensively, while the Gophers have the edge on D. Big public support for Texas (71% at wagerline), but the line has either held steady at 4.5 or dropped to 4 at some books (like Matchbook, where we got our line). Pomeroy has Texas by 1, and Sagarin has it even closer than that. Sold.

American +16.5 +108, 2 units to win 2.16 units

Grover likes it. Pomeroy likes it. Sagarin likes it. And I've just heard the 34th ESPN analyst this week suggest that Villanova has a free pass to the Sweet 16 because they get to play in Philadelphia. The love for Nova is really getting out of control, but the line has been dropping this week rather than going higher. American shoots pretty well, and if they can hit a decent percentage today, they should be able to stay within this big number.

I went out to a bar tonight instead of staying home and typing the explanations for these. Hopefully, I'll wake up early enough tomorrow to get a few sentences in about each of these, but we wanted to go ahead and lock in the lines now since all of them appear to have moved a little already.

*Explanations added Thursday morning. Good luck everybody.

The Big Fun Starts Tomorrow

But, there are still a few games that we like for Wednesday night:

NBA

Bucks +5.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit


I can't understand how the Bucks have won any games at all since losing Redd (and Bogut, to a lesser extent), but they haven't been nearly as dreadful as I thought they would be. The books are taking a stand with Milwaukee despite heavy support for the Magic. Perhaps the books are expecting a letdown in effort from Orlando after last night's big game against Lebron, and since they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight (played Utah Sunday).

College Basketball

Jacksonville +14.5 +100, 1 unit ot win 1 unit


From the NIT. I don't know much about Jacksonville, but I know these two things:

1. Despite huge public betting on the Gators, the books are not budging that line an inch so far.

2. None of the following teams were able to beat Jacksonville by 15 points this season: Baylor, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Georgetown, Florida State.

Vermont +5.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

From the CBI, whatever the hell that is. Another team I know almost nothing about because they didn't play a lot of lined games this year. From looking at their schedule, they took George Mason and Maryland to overtime, and defeated Delaware and Colorado. With the books dropping the line a full point over the course of the day, that's good enough for me.

Hoping to get back later tonight to post Thursday's NCAA tournament picks. Good luck everybody.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

The AAO Guide to a Winning Bracket

350 or so days a year, our audience is the serious, or at least regular, sports bettor. The kind of person who's looking for an edge, the kind of person who scoffs when some asks them to explain what the -180 and +150 numbers mean on the big fancy boards in Vegas. However, for two events a year the sports betting world opens up to pretty much everyone. One of those events is the Super Bowl. We blew that one, only making one play and failing to get some "fun" prop bet tips up on the blog. Sorry. We're gonna make it up to you on the other event, March Madness.

Today's post is a guide to your office pool. We're not making any picks here, although we will discuss a few teams in the course of the discussion. Instead, we'll give you some rules and guidelines for your office pool. And so without further ado ...

Rule #1, The Golden Rule: Know the Scoring System

Most people know this already, but it can't be emphasized enough. Your picks in a bracket that rewards all winning picks the same way should be completely different from a bracket that gives you double points for upsets, and those should be completely different from those that multiply the points in each round by the team's seed. Obviously, a bracket that doesn't give you any bonus for upsets should have a good deal of chalk, with one general exception that we'll get to in Rule #2.

Let's start with the "straight" pools, the ones that give you no bonus for upsets. According to this incredibly handy guide produced by the Washington Post, since the tournament expanded in 1985, #1 seeds have a 1.000 winning percentage in Round 1, an .875 winning percentage in Round 2, and most surprisingly to me, an .821 winning percentage in the Sweet 16- I was thinking it would be far lower, maybe in the .700 to .750 range. So if you are in a small pool with no upset bonuses, in the past it has paid to go with the #1 seeds to the Elite Eight. Of course, there are some ways to evaluate the best picks that are far better and more accurate than seeds. We'll get to that in Rule #3. And history only tells us so much, as we'll discuss in Rule #4. This is what we call "foreshadowing." But generally speaking, taking favorites for the most part is a solid strategy in these types of pools.

What about those that give you double value for certain upsets? There your best bet, at least for Round 1, is to go to the Vegas money lines. If the potential upset pick is +200 or better on the money line, they're generally a value play for double points. If you're in a larger pool (again, we'll get to that later), you might want to go as high as +250 or more if there's something else you like about the team. Beyond Round 1, your best bet is probably to use the odds for advancement found at basketballprospectus.com. They've got their essential previews up for the East and Midwest today, look for the South and West tomorrow. These previews,while not perfect, are the best tool you'll find to gain an edge. We'll discuss this more in Rule #3.

And for those pools that multiply the total points by the seed? Upsets are the way to go here, but not overwhelmingly so. Generally speaking, if you look at the data from this useful Washington Post link, the seed multiplication matched up pretty closely with the likelihod of advancement. For example, #1 seeds are twice as likely to advance to the Final Four as #2 seeds (42 vs 21 since 1985), a little better than three times as likely to advance as a #3 (42 vs. 12), and a little better than four times as likely as a #4 (42 vs 9). Beyond that, the data at the Final Four level becomes insignificant. Thankfully, Basketball Prospectus once again provides a guide to figure out whether there's value in the higher seeds. By way of example, let's look at the South and Midwest, the two previews available already. The BP numbers suggest that in a multiplier pool, you would be out of your mind to pick the #1 seed to advance to the Final Four. UCLA and Duke provide far better value, when you multiply their odds of advancing to the final four by their higher seeds. The other lower seeds provide value that is generally slightly less than Pitt's value here. Turning to the Midwest, you can see that only Pomeroy favorite West Virginia provides better value than the top seeded Cardinals. So if you like our reasoning with these "multiplier" pools, but can't shake the need to pick some chalk, this is the place to take a #1. I can tell you before they come out that UNC and UConn will not provide similar value in this sort of pool.


Rule #2- Know the Size of Your Pool

Our discussion here will be much briefer. The rule is simple- the smaller the pool, the more favorites you can take. In a fifteen person pool, you can win by simply hitting on two or three of the final four like everyone else, being one of the three or four people to pick the champion correctly, and using basic tools like the Pomeroy numbers and the Vegas money lines to find a couple sneaky "upsets" that people who think every 8 is better than the 9 and every 7 is better than a 10 will miss. In a larger pool, you are far more likely to win if, say, you are the only person who correctly has UCLA coming out of the East than you are if you are one of the 75% of people who have Pitt coming out of the East. In a huge pool, picking Pitt gets you virtually nowhere relative to the field; picking UCLA gets you everywhere ... if you think UCLA have more than a snowball's chance, they are one of many 3 of higher seeds that is worth a shot in those 100+ person pools. For more guidance, the folks at BP should give you some help. In these large pools, it probably serves you well to consider the conventional wisdom, as espoused by the talking heads on ESPN and the "experts" at your local paper. If what these people say about a particular team is at odds with what Pomeroy, Sagarin and others have to say, that might be a good way to pick up some points relative to what the masses will do. Which brings us to Rule #3 ...

Rule #3: The Statisticians and Bookies Are All Smarter Than the NCAA Committee, Jay Bilas, Digger Phelps and Andy Katz Put Together

This one's also really simple. When you fill out your bracket, keep a close eye on teams that are "underdogs" in the brackets but are the better team according to Pomeroy, Sagarin, and the books. Those are the best place to figure out who is more likely to win. If one of them disagrees with the seeds, it's a great place to get the odds in your favor to pick up points on Joe Chalklover, my made-up pool participant who always loves the lower numbered seeds except for his one "upset pick" that he saw mentioned in the local paper yesterday. In my mind, Joe wears short sleeve dress shirts with ties, keeps his ID badge prominently displayed, and has dandruff.

Some experts should be drowned out even more than others, or even faded. Digger Phelps is a great example. His pick of a #1 seed and a #4 seed to meet in the Elite 8 this year is becoming legend. UNC fans all fondly remember 2005, when Digger loudly and repeatedly informed anyone who would listen that UNC would never win the title because UConn had blocked 16 Tarheel shots in a February game, failing every time to mention that UNC had nevertheless won the game, played in Hartford. The lesson here: Digger should be ignored at all costs. You might get dumber by osmosis if you listen to him.

Rule #4: History Means Almost Nothing

You have no doubt heard, or will hear, most of the following things in the runup to the tournament, and probably some other ones about tournament history as well:

- A 12 always beats a 5!
- Duke used to be great, but they've been upset in the tournament the last four years running.
- Gonzaga always gets a lot of hype and then disappoints in the tournament.
- The elite programs always "step up" at tournament time
- Experience is key- seniors win championships.

And so on.

It is important to always remember that when the teams take the floor, it's just a bunch of guys and their coaching staff trying to score more points than the other bunch of guys and their coaching staff. So what about our historical facts above? All true, and all irrelevant:

- A 12 always beats a 5 because there are four 5-12 games every year, and the 5 seeds aren't that much better than the 12 seeds. This year is a great example. 12th seeded Wisconsin is actually better than 5th seeded Florida State according to Pomeroy (although as we've discussed here on other occasions, the Pomeroy system always overrates Wisconsin substantially). The Utah-Arizona game is a pick 'em according to the books. And so on. Again, don't consider the seeds, consider the teams. No need to force a 12 vs 5 upset because "one always happens" if you don't like any of them after reading the other Rules here- although this year, there are several to like.

- Duke has been pathetic in the tournament lately. Embarrassing. Awful. Frankly, they are a disgrace to the university and the alumni they represent, and the University should probably just admit the basketball team's uselessness and move on to things the school actually excels at, like golf and fashion and musicals and whathaveyou. However, we don't see what the miserable peformances of chokers like JJ Redick and DeMarcus Nelson have to do with how Kyle Singler and Eliot Williams will do this year.

(N.B.: the tone of the above paragraph may have been influenced by the writer's three years in Chapel Hill)

- Same principle applies to Gonzaga. Adam Morrison's failings in the past do not affect how this year's team will do. This year's team is good, and they deserve your attention. If you, like Digger in 2005, are not a UNC believer this year, Gonzaga is worth considering as an upset pick in the Sweet Sixteen. Consider the other Rules here before deciding if you think it's worthwhile to take a chance on the Zags in 2009. Just don't let their past performances influence your thinking.

- In 2006, George Mason beat UConn in the Elite Eight, surviving an overtime that 99% of the viewing populations assumed would just crush the mid-major Patriots. In 2007 an Ohio State team reached its first Final Four in eight years (more than that if you abide by the sanctions that removed the visit from the records). In 2008, Memphis reached only it's second Final Four ever (I know, I was surprised too!). Sure, the elite teams make the final four all the time, but it's because of the talent underneath the jerseys, not the names on the front of the jerseys.

- Winning teams almost always have seniors in the rotation because 95% (wild guess) of Division I teams have seniors in the rotation. You know why? Because on average, 22 year olds are better at basketball than 19 year olds. That doesn't mean young teams with great talent should be written off. Ask Carmelo Anthony how important experience is to winning a championship.


Do you have your own thoughts, hints, systems, etc. for office bracket pools? Feel free to share them with us in the comments.

Working Late Tonight

So, getting a few in early:

NBA

Bulls ML +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units

Just ridiculous. The defending champs, even without KG, are only 1-point favorites against the mess that is the Chicago Bulls? Silly. Celtics waiting to see if KG can return on Friday. Allen, Davis, and Scalabrine also out tonight. Salmons doing a really nice job filling in for Deng.

NHL

Chicago +144, 0.5 units to win 0.72 units

Philadelphia +174, 0.5 units to win 0.87 units

Public on the opposite side of these, we'll go the other way.

I should be home in time to play any later NIT games that look interesting.

Monday, March 16, 2009

We're Still Here

Both of us had family obligations out of town this weekend, so the blog took a break. Not much shaking today, but found two for the NBA tonight:

Thunder +5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

In Oklahoma City, and without Manu, there's really not that big of a gap between these two teams. Seriously.

Grizzlies +6 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Line already starting to drop. Blazers are not a scary road team, to say the least.

Grover should be back some time tonight with a NCAA bracket-related post (something of more substance than my daily crap). Good luck everybody.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Less Is More (Or Maybe It's Less)

Trying to keep the number of plays in check, and talked myself out of everything else, other than this 1 NBA pick:

Bobcats +1 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Home team has a good shot at getting this one. Not as bad as the people think.

That's it, and I'm on my way out for the night. Passes (i.e. guaranteed winners) were Bulls, Wizards and Nets in the NBA, and New Mexico State and USC in college. Good luck everybody.

College Hoops and The Return of Tennis

I just noticed that another tennis tournament had finally started after the ATP took more than a week off. Just a couple of basketball games so far. I'm going to start trying to limit myself to just the picks that I feel strongly about (like the 2-unit San Diego State play yesterday) and see if I can break out of this past week's slump:

College Basketball

Temple +4.5 -104, 2.08 units to win 2 units

No surprise to be fading Xavier once again. The public loves them, but they haven't been overly impressive away from home.

Villanova +4.5 -106, 2.12 units to win 2 units

Two really strong teams in this one (Sagarin has them about 2 points apart), and in what should be a close game, I'll take the 4.5 points. Nova is a little better offensively, and Louisville has a slight edge on the defensive end. Looking for a nail-biter tonight.

Tennis

C. Rochus +114 over J. Isner, 0.5 units to win 0.57 units


I like this Isner kid, but he's still learning how to win matches and I give the veteran an edge tonight. Line movement signalling Rochus also.

E. Schwank -156 over N. Massu, 0.78 units to win 0.5 units

Massu is terrible, and I like to say Schwank. Schwank! You can't get analysis like this just anywhere, folks.

Going to wait and see on the NBA games, but there are 3 or 4 that look like they're going to suck me in tonight. Another college game is possible in the late round of games, but need to get back to work for a while.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

The Rest of the Afternoon

Two more, then back to work:

Iowa +5.5 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit

The people like the Wolverines, but that line is either holding steady or dropping depending on what book you're using. I'm not counting on Jeff Peterson being healthy enough to contribute, but that would be a nice bonus.

San Diego State +4 -117, 2.34 units to win 2 units

Like this play a lot. It's always nice to be getting points with the better team. San Diego State is dangerous because of their depth, and they are better shooters and rebounders than UNLV. I know the Rebels are playing at home, but these teams played even earlier this season at the Thomas & Mack Center, and I'm not sure why so many people are expecting something different this time around.

Back later if there's time....

Nooner

One early game:

Northwestern +2 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Line isn't budging so far, and can't sit around watching it this morning. At Minnesota a couple of weeks ago, the Gophers beat Northwestern by 27 points. And today on a neutral court, they're only favored by 2? That's just too fishy.

Good luck everybody.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Nice Collapse, Charlotte

Man, that one was looking good there for a while, wasn't it? The other two were winners so I'll let it go. This time. Headed out for a few hours, but two more for tonight before I go, each to win 1 unit:

St. Bonaventure +5.5 -103

Seton Hall +7 -107


There's always a lot of love out there for the 'Cuse. Good luck everybody.

One More For The Afternoon

Adding one from Conference USA:

Southern Mississippi +2.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

Held off on this one earlier to see what the line would do, but it seems to have settled in at the opening number even with decent public support for Central Florida. I always lean to a well-balanced team at tournament time over a one-man team (Jermaine Taylor) like UCF. UCF doesn't have Tony Davis down low anymore either, which makes them even more one-dimensional, and therefore easier to defend.

Under The Boardwalk

Actually, these two games are being played kind of right next to the boardwalk, but there aren't any famous songs titled "Kind of Right Next to the Boardwalk." It does sound pretty catchy, though. From the A-10 tournament in Atlantic City, each to win 1 unit:

St. Louis +3.5 +100

Charlotte +4 -110


Good luck everybody.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

No Time For Love, Dr. Jones!


Running even later than usual today. The picks, all for 1 unit:

NBA

Bobcats +5.5 -102


College Basketball

Princeton +2.5 -101

Idaho State +5.5 -103

South Alabama +4.5 +106

South Florida +4.5 -105


Good luck everybody.

Afternoon in the Garden

Just one for this afternoon:

St. John's +5.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

The consensus on Georgetown is not huge, but that full-point drop in the line is fairly significant. Basically a home game for the Johnnies in MSG, and St. John's plays better in front of the home fans. If you count it as a home game, Sagarin has about 4 points separating these team. Georgetown still can't rebound the ball and St. John's should be able to stay close.

Monday, March 9, 2009

Monday Night Basketball

Quickly, each risking one unit:

NBA

Bulls +5 +102

Blazers +2 +106


College Basketball

North Texas +3.5 +105

Chattanooga +2.5 -101


Good luck everybody.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Sunday Afternoon Hoops

Going to the office, and then somewhere to watch Duke/Carolina. The afternoon picks, quickly:

NBA

Raptors +5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Magic +4 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit


College Basketball

Central Michigan +5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Ohio +4.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Miami(OH) +3 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit


Good luck everybody.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Thank God For Hockey

Another big underdog winner in the NHL. One of these days, I'm going to have a watch a game. Just a few more for tonight, with no time for extra rambling.

NHL

St. Louis +142, 0.5 units to win 0.71 units

Columbus +236, 0.5 units to win 1.18 units


College Basketball

Richmond +6 -103

George Washington +5 -101

Duquesne +6 +102

Northern Colorado +4.5 -105


All the college picks to win 1 unit or risking 1 unit. Good night everybody.

Busy Saturday Afternoon

A nice 4-0 sweep last night probably means it's going to be a rough day today. Due to real world commitments, I'm not going to have time to wait around for the tournament lines to come out. Just a few for the afternoon:

NHL

Islanders +220, 0.5 units to win 1.1 units


Maybe home ice will count for something today.

College Basketball

Fordham +12.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units


Neither team playing particularly well, but at least Fordham gets to play this one at home. If the shots aren't falling early, St. Joe's has nobody on the bench to turn to.

Marshall +12.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Mostly just a play against the public love for UAB and acknowledging the books' decision to drop the line from -13 to -12.5 in spite of that love. Having 12 points to work with doesn't hurt.

Mississippi State +3 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Ole Miss is going to start to feel absence of Chris Warren at some point. Betting and line movement suggest it could be today.

If I have time, back later with more for tonight.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Friday Night Basketball

Well, that sucked. Seahawks rallied back a few times but ran out of steam at the end. The rest for Friday:

NBA

Nets +9 +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units


I guess I missed the memo about the Magic's home court advantage.

College Basketball

Brown +2 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Brown and Harvard are both awful, but at least Brown is playing at home. This is really ugly.

Towson +6.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

I've bet against Drexel a lot this season, and I don't I've ever won, so take this for what it's worth (not much). Towson shoots a little better and has the deeper bench. Drexel rebounds better. On a neutral court, this could be a close one.

Marist +4 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

Their only meeting this year, at Iona, went to overtime, but 70% of the bets are coming in on Iona tonight. I'm not sure why the Gaels are getting all the love on a neutral court, and the fact that the line hasn't budged makes me think maybe I'm not crazy here.

Good luck everybody.

Friday Afternoon From the Colonial

I guess it wasn't so sad to just play one long-shot hockey pick yesterday since it ended up winning. Conference tournaments really getting going today, and we're going to get an afternoon game (2:20 PM Eastern) in now:

UNC-Wilmington +7.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

I understand why Hofstra is getting the public love, because Hofstra's straight-up win/loss record is 20-10 (and they're the #5 seed) and UNC-W's is 7-24 (#12 seed), and that's all that a lot of people look at. But, these teams have played twice recently and both games ended virtually even (the game at Hofstra went to overtime, and Hofstra won in Wilmington by only 2 points), and now on a neutral floor Hofstra is supposed to beat them handily? Doesn't add up. If you were just picking the straight-up winner, then maybe you should look at the discrepancies in the straight-up win/loss records given above, but if you're betting against the spread, maybe you'd be better off looking at their ATS performance (Hofstra 12-14, UNC-W 13-12). Right? Or maybe you could see close to 70% of the bets coming in on Hofstra, and then watch the line going the other way (dropped from Hofstra -8 to -7.5), and think maybe somebody out there who knows more than you and has more time on their hands to figure these things out (sportsbooks, professional gamblers) might just be on to something. Important tip for the conference tournaments: make sure you know where the game is being played, because the team listed on the bottom is not necessarily playing at home due to neutral sites. If this line moves any more, it will go lower. Good luck everybody.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Sadly, This Could Be It For Thursday

From the National Hockey League:

Minnesota +244, 0.5 units to win 1.22 units

So many bettors jumping on the -260 favorite San Jose, I had to look twice to make sure it wasn't the Yankees from 5 years ago. Hard to believe there's this much difference between these two teams.

Nothing else really jumping out at us right now. There were a few possibilities in college hoops when I woke up this morning (Cal, Cal Poly, Indiana State), but the line movements aren't looking good right now.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

The Old College Try


Just the college kids tonight:

Houston +7 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

As forecast earlier, this one is a no-brainer.

Florida International +5.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

From the Sun Belt tournament. FIU just lost at Lafayette by 17 points a month ago, but now the line is only 5.5? Please.

Missouri -4.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

I'm always uneasy about favorites, but everything here looks right.

Colorado +7 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Pomeroy has A&M by 6. Line dropped from the opener of 7.5 despite public support for the road team.

Texas Tech +10 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Another unloved home dog. Lots of love out there for the reigning champs.

That's it for tonight. Good luck everybody.

Bookmaker Fade List - 3/4/09

The top ten most popular wagers today according to Bookmaker:

1. Oklahoma (not surprising, and it may force us to back another favorite tonight)
2. Celtics (no shit. next!)
3. Marquette (very strange. not sure I buy this one [vs. Pitt, James out])
4. Hawks (blah)
5. Memphis (no surprise here either, pending a weird line move I expect to be on Houston)
6. North Carolina (another popular program, but not touching this game)
7. Warriors (a road dog with a 21-39 record? I call bullshit)
8. Wizards (I think they have this one backwards)
9. Jazz (line growing throughout the day)
10. Miami-FL (line has definitely gone the opposite way, maybe too much value lost already)

Back later with some fades of my own, depending on when I get out of the office.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

I Hate The NBA

Just college hoops and hockey for Tuesday night:

College Basketball

South Florida +2.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Duke -12.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Loyola-Chicago +7.5 -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit

Montana State +4 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit


NHL

Los Angeles +142, 0.5 units to win 0.71 units

Minnesota +152, 0.5 units to win 0.76 units


I actually had a lot to say about the college games tonight, but forces are conspiring to keep me from having time to do so. Good luck everybody.

Bookmaker Fade List - 3/3/09

The Top Ten most popular bets at Bookmaker so far today:

1. Pacers
2. Raptors
3. Wake Forest
4. Cincinnati
5. Florida State
6. Oklahoma State
7. St. Louis Cardinals (???)
8. Ohio State
9. Weber State
10. Bobcats

The Head-Scratchers

- Raptors: Don't get this one. Marion has the flu, and T-Mac's injury isn't exactly new. Why would the public be big on Toronto? Any squares out there want to explain this one?

- Cardinals: Really? A team in an exhibition baseball game is getting more support than any other basketball teams today? Very bizarre.

- Bobcats: Since when do the Bobcats get any public love?

- Pacers: Big support for the Granger-less Pacers on the road. Even against a bad team like the Kings, this one is very strange. With the line moving toward the Pacers in this spot, I can't wrap my tiny brain around it and it's probably a pass.

The Juicy Fades

- Cincinnati: Looks too awful to pass up. Verdejo's injury for South Florida should have the Bearcats as a much bigger favorite. Unless this line goes up during the afternoon (it's actually headed downward), it's going to be tough to pass up the home dog here.

- Oklahoma State: Victory over an overrated Texas team (I'm pretty sure Durant and Augustin aren't there anymore) appears to have given OK State a boost in the public eye.

- Weber State: Weber State's win-loss record is 20-8 and Montana State is 13-15. There's no way Montana State can beat them. You know, except for the 5-point win Montana State just pulled off at Weber State in January.

- Florida State: Duke is 24-5 and FSU is 22-7, but one of these teams is a double-digit favorite over the other? The public doesn't think that makes sense, but as this line continues to rise, it looks like the books do.

Back later after watching these lines move for a couple of hours.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Just The NBA

Two nights in a row with no college games worth touching. That's a little depressing, but don't want to force it. Two from the Association, each to win 1 unit:

Wizards +4 +100

Heat +3.5 -103


Continuing the theme of the unloved home dog. Looking for value in going against the Hawks, who made a strong showing in the nationally televised game vs. the Cavs last night. On the flip side, looking for a little letdown from the Cavs after squeaking out that same game by one point.

Good luck everybody.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Professionals Only

Looks like there would have been some good picks last night (Hawaii, Idaho, etc.) if I had found the time to look at them. Nothing I really like today in college (Missouri and Fairfield are close), so just NBA & NHL for Sunday. No complicated explanations, just going against the public. One unit on the NBA picks, and a half unit on the NHL

NBA

Hawks +4 -105

Pacers +2 +105

Raptors +6 -102


NHL

Philadelphia +128

Los Angeles +206

Florida +188


Good luck today, folks.