Sunday Quickies

Busy day for a Sunday, so just a couple of quick afternoon baseball picks:

Nationals -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Twins +168, 1 unit to win 1.68 units

Probably back later to hedge our futures bet on the Magic.

Friday Four Pack

Let's not dilly-dally. There's beer in the fridge with my name on it. All lines from Matchbook:


Washington Nationals +101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit.

Money pouring in on Phils, line hasn't moved much. What if I told you that the Washington Nationals, butt of jokes from here to Timbuktu, have a better third-order record this season than the World Series Champion Phillies. Is that something you might be interested in? Here they also have the better starter, if only slightly, and Lannan's lefthandedness should come in particularly handy against the famously lefty-happy Phillies lineup. And yet you can get a plus number on them. In Washington. With the Nats coming off a rest day and the Phils coming off extra innings. How is that possible? I dunno. Why ask why.


Cleveland Indians +152, 1 unit to win 1.52 units.

Hambone likes this number, which he thinks affords too much respect to Kazmir and the Rays. I'm iffy, but I like Injuns, so I'm on board.



Baltimore Orioles +202, 1 unit to win 2.02 units.

Nobody said it was gonna be easy to win money betting on baseball. Betting with us here requires you to put money on Adam Eaton over Zach Greinke. Ugh. Not easy to pull the trigger there. But the fact is, as awful as that matchup sounds, public perception probably exaggerates it a lot. Greinke's not gonna break Bob Gibson's ERA mark, but as long as he's getting lines that seem to suggest he will, we might as well take advantage. And Eaton's not the worst pitcher in the history of baseball. He's been mediocre but not terrible this year. Really only one terrible start. O's are worth a shot at better than 2 to 1 here.


Minnesota Twins +121, 1 unit to win 1.21 units.

I challenge you, the reader, to give me one single reason to think that this pitching matchup (Liriano vs. Hughes) favors the Yankees. It doesn't. Sure, the Yankees have the more talented offensive lineup, but I'm gonna need to see some 2009 production, not just famous names, before I think they deserve to be the favorite in a game in which the opponent has the better starter and the better bullpen. In the meantime, I'll keep fading Hughes at numbers like +121 and take my chances, thank you.

Thursday Night - Betting & Line Movement

That's all I looked at for these, lines from Matchbook:

NBA

Orlando Magic -7 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

NHL

Carolina Hurricanes +192, 0.5 units to win 0.96 units

Anaheim Ducks +224, 0.5 units to win 1.12 units

Enjoy the games, folks.

Thursday Afternoon

Just one baseball game that we both like today so far:

Padres +151 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.51 units

FYI, this game is scheduled for 2:20 PM Eastern time. Gaudin is not as bad as that line would suggest, and Dempster is not that good. Public is betting on the Cubs, but the line has been tumbling the opposite direction since last night. Exactly what we like to see.

Back later with NHL/NBA.

Lets Go Caps!

As a Tar Heel, I am one of the very few residents of the greater Washington, DC area who has seen one of "his teams" win it all in the last fifteen years or so. I challenge you to find a city that has lived with more sports-related pain and disappointment over the last two decades. It's not just the lack of titles: none since the 1991-1992 Redskins, and only one runner-up spot (1998 Caps). It's the abject misery of the last decade. The Dan Snyder Era. Michael Jordan missing the playoffs, Gilbert's bum knee, and LeBron's many four-step game-winners. Thirty years without baseball, followed by four years of watching a AAA team play in the major leagues.

Thanks to Roy Williams, I personally have no grounds for complaint about the last decade or two as a sports fan. But please, Caps, get it done tonight, and give my D.C. brethren a reason to love sports again.

Anyway, back to gambling. Here's the unofficial play:

Los Angeles Dodgers

I love them as an underdog in this game. No Manny? Really? That's all it takes to make a 22-12 team underdogs facing a Jamie Moyer who is very obviously (finally) done and a Phillies team that has, frankly, sucked this season? Are bettors still stuck on that whole "World Series Champions" thing? Have they completely missed how mediocre this team is? Their third-order record is under .500. Sure, Rollins can't be this awful all year ... but Ibanez can't stay this hot, either. Fading this team the rest of the way, or at least until America catches on, should be profitbale.

Unfortunately, Hambone is out of commission today and I can't look at lines at work, so I can't make it a play until I got home, probably close to 7 PM. Thus the "unofficial" status for now. Posting picks at 6:55 for a 7:05 first pitch is of no use to you, and we're all about customer service here.

EDIT: OK, let's make it official:

Los Angeles Dodgers +102 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.02 units.

Tuesday baseball

Ah, good to be back. All lines from Matchbook today:


Seattle Mariners +137, 1 unit to win 1.37 units.

Our Mariners love this year is well-documented. Neither starter is anything to write home about, so we'll play the better team at that number.


Pittsburgh Pirates +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit.

We're not buying the Cards this year, and the third-order numbers back us up on that, so we'll take even money with the slightly inferior club but the better starter at home. Simple as that.


Washington Nationals +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units.

It hurts to get off the Cain train, but there's gonna be a ton of value in the Nats the rest of this year. Teams that are 10-20 in the standings but who have third-order records of 14.6-15.4 tend to be that way. Just stay away from the Olsen and Cabrera starts if you want to preserve your sanity. Zimmermann can keep you sane.

K-Mart Slaps Cuban's Daughter, Cuban Orders Hit on Kenyon's Cat

The Mark Cuban/Kenyon Martin feud is getting out of hand. David Stern considered intervening, but the confrontation is boosting ratings in what was a boring series, so the NBA is predictably staying out of it for now.

One pick in the NBA Tuesday night:

Magic +2 -102 (Matchbook), 1.02 units to win 1 unit

Hmmmmmm. The Celtics Game 4 win in Orlando has been discussed, and the last shot replayed, on ESPN 412 times already, and now in Boston, the Magic are only 2-point underdogs? Ridiculous. 70% of the bets coming in on Boston, but the line has actually retreated from the opener of -2.5 down to -2. Something's up here, and we'll climb on board for 1 unit.

Grover will be back in a couple of hours with the baseball picks.

Sunday Afternoon Action - Mother's Day Edition

Never made it back to the computer before last night, which is a shame considering both NHL underdogs won and even the Nationals picked up another road win. Moving on to Sunday, Mother's Day commitments make it unlikely we'll be available later, so here's everything for today, lines from Matchbook:

MLB

Braves +135, 1 unit to win 1.35 units

Pretty much a coin flip, although Kawakami has been slightly better, but the public is on the World Champion Phillies. And they're saying it like that when they put in their bets.

Orioles +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units

Only +131 against the mighty Yankees and Joba the Hut? Seems a little short. More strikeouts and more walks for Chamberlain. Hoping the the latter bites him on his big fat ass like that swarm of gnats in Cleveland a couple of years ago.

Mariners -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

No real contrarian angle on this one, just a complete pitching mismatch. Not a lot of hitting expected in this one, so we'll take the more dominant starter and the bullpen (Nathan excepted) that's been performing better so far.

Padres +149, 1 unit to win 1.49 units

Not as much history to look at with Geer as opposed to Oswalt, but so far, so good. His strikeout rate isn't very high, but Oswalt hasn't exactly been mowing them down either. Line drop overnight makes me think there's value in the nice dog number.

NHL

Anaheim Ducks +210, 0.5 units to win 1.05 units

Public huge on the home team (Hockeytown!) today, but the Ducks continue to surprise, taking one game in Detroit already (and 2 in San Jose) this postseason. Ducks are virtually even with the Wings on both sides of the power play, and have the best goalie in the playoffs. Tons of value here.

Good luck everybody, and don't forget to phone your Mom. When I rolled over and woke her up this morning she said she was expecting a call.

Saturday Afternoon Baseball

Wow, a winning night in baseball and hockey. I guess miracles can happen. Recovering from an all-night poker game, so just the picks, without any fanfare or my lame attempts at humor (and there was much rejoicing...). Lines from Matchbook, all risking 1 unit:

Oakland A's +100

San Francisco Giants +136

Atlanta Braves +106

Good luck everybody. Back later. Probably.

Friday Night Moneyline Sports

Baseball and hockey, all lines from Matchbook, all risking 1 unit:

MLB

Braves +162

Hamels hasn't pitched as badly as his ERA would have you believe, but Jo Jo has been solid and this line is over-inflated.

Padres +150

Ditto on this one. Gaudin's FIP so far is a respectable 3.56 and his strikeout rate is higher than Wandy's.

Nationals +117

The worst team in the history of baseball (at least, if you ask anybody living in the DC area) is only +117 on the road? Ludicrous.

Tigers +122

I don't know how to check this, but Verlander has got to have the most deceiving ERA in a long time. His ERA is 5.66, but that's inflated by his .381 BABIP, and look at his other numbers (K/BB = 45/12, K/9 = 11.57, WHIP = 1.37, etc.). He's pitching incredibly well, but you wouldn't know it unless you looked deeper, and most people don't.

A's +107

Richmond's 4-0 record must be keeping the Bluejays as the favorite in this game, because it doesn't make any sense otherwise. Over 70% are taking the road favorite.

NHL

Carolina Hurricanes +111

Boston in a "must-win" situation on the road tonight, and the public is jumping on board. Predictably, we're going the other way and backing the home dog.

Just Manny Being Annie?

As everyone has heard by now, except for the guy that traded for Manny last night in my fantasy baseball league and had not heard the news (ha!), Manny Ramirez has been suspended for 50 games for violating MLB's anti-drug policy. According to reports, Ramirez did not test positive for steroids, but rather for a banned women's fertility drug, HCG. Stephen/Stephanie Peterson of the Gay, Lesbian, And Miscellaneous (G.L.A.M.) task force, a division of the ACLU, claims, "This is just one more example of Major League Baseball discriminating against transgender players." When pressed for another example of such discrimination, Mr./Ms. Peterson was unable to think of one.

Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers doesn't see what the fuss is all about. "Steve Garvey used to wear thongs or even panty hose under his uniform, but nobody cared. It was the 70's, man, it was a glorious time of sexual experimentation and moustaches." 2009 Hall of Fame inductee, Rickey Henderson, tried to distance himself from the controversy, saying, "Rickey says Rickey never took no girlie pills. If you don't believe me, you can ask Rickey." Oddly, the Players Union has not appealed MLB's ruling. Explains Executive Director, Donald Fehr, "Sure, we could challenge the suspension, but what happens if we're successful? Then all the players would want to start taking female hormones. Pretty soon, you've got tampon machines in the dugouts. I guess it would be interesting to see, given all the time spent together, if the players would eventually all have the same menstrual pattern." Talk about hitting for the cycle...

Breaking News - Favre Considering Playing Next Season

That News Flash I've been hearing about all day is right up there with "New Book Alleges A-Rod May Have Lied About Steroid Use" on the list of shocking news stories that didn't actually shock anybody. The picks (fades) for tonight:

MLB

Indians +161 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.61 units

A number that really jumped off the page at us earlier today. Public still loving the big favorite Red Sox, but the line has dropped slightly. I guess the line and support can be attributed to a combination of the love for the Sox and the hatred of Carl Pavano and his 7.46 ERA and 1-3 record (plus the memories of his injury-plagued stint with the Yankees). But Pavano has pitched better than that. He has 19 strikeouts vs. only 5 walks so far this season, a FIP of 4.44, and a BABIP which has inflated his ERA at least a little bit.

NHL

Capitals +158 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.79 units

70% of the bets are coming in on the Penguins today, presumably due to this kind of thinking: "There's no way Pittsburgh can go down 0-3 in the series because they have Sidney Crosby on their team and he's been talked about on SportsCenter, like, a million times!" We are almost always looking to go the other way in "must-win" situations like this. If Theodore was still in goal for the Caps, I would be hesitant, but the switch to Varmalov has really turned a weakness into a strength. Obviously, the Penguins should be favored, but this line looks like an over-reaction and the line retreat makes it look like the books know it.

Good luck everybody.

No Time To Explain

Tuesday afternoon baseball, each risking 1 unit:

Indians +110

Orioles +180

Good luck everybody.

Martis Tosses Complete Game, Cripples DC Subway System

Shairon Martis pitched a complete game in the Nationals 6-1 victory over the Cardinals on Saturday, the franchise's first complete game from any pitcher since 2006. Unfortunately, because the Nationals game and Washington Capitals playoff game vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins both started at 1 PM, the impossible-to-predict complete game from Martis meant that the baseball game ended at the same time as the hockey game instead of an hour later, spilling fans from both games into the subway at the same time. Ordinarily, the extra five to six hundred Nationals fans wouldn't have been an issue, but Saturday was Latino Heritage Day and the free T-shirts ("Los Nacionales, Al Rojo Vivos!") provided to fans brought nearly 20,000 fans to the stadium. Said hedge-fund trader Brett Doctrum, "With the firm not giving out bonuses this year, the free shirt was impossible to resist." Not even the swine flu frenzy being whipped up on Republican talk radio was enough to overcome the lure of free clothing.

D.C. Transit Chief John Ohlenbach was stunned by the subway delays, saying only "Washington D.C. has a baseball team? I had no idea." No deaths were reported after the subway incident, but officials said things could have gotten out of hand if Nationals fans had been given time to have more than 3 beers before the 7th-inning stretch and accompanying last call. Still, the situation was one that won't soon be forgotten. Upon emerging from the Dupont Circle Metro escalator bruised and beaten, and carrying a ripped Los Nacionales T-shirt in each hand, D.C. resident Vance Terry told this reporter, "It's like 'Lord of the Flies' down there," before disappearing into the nearest sex shop.

The picks:

Los Nacionales -143, 1.43 unit to win 1 unit

Grover and I were both at that Nationals game on Saturday, so some of that gibberish above is based on fact. And, yes, that is a MINUS sign next to the Washington Nationals at your sportsbook. They are actually favored to win a game. That's too goofy to pass.

San Francisco Giants +175, 1 unit to win 1.75 units

Disregard Jonathan Sanchez's ERA (2.60) because it's deceivingly BABIP-aided (he's been getting some lucky bounces on balls hit into play), but his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is the same as Dempster's and his strikeout rate is better, so +175 looks like good value today.