Friday Hoops - Nothing To Write Home About

I don't see anything for tonight that looks like a slam dunk, but somehow still played 5 games. So much for quality over quantity (maybe we'll get back to that mindset tomorrow):

College Basketball

Iona -3 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

NBA

Wizards +11.5 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units

Pacers +11 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Warriors +8.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

Bobcats +4.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Good luck everybody. Tons of work to do before tomorrow.

Hockey Anyone?

There were a couple of college basketball picks I considered, I thought about Louisville in football, I thought about the Spurs, and in the end, I've got one hockey pick to add and that's it:

Islanders +140, 0.5 units to win 0.7 units

The Islanders and The Citadel and that's it for tonight, folks. Don't want to force it just because there have been a couple of good days. Now I've got to find a bar so I can watch the NFL game. I wonder if the NFL has a deal with Buffalo Wild Wings, Hooters, and the other big bar chains to put these Thursday night games on a channel that only the bars get. Good luck everybody.

Quality Over Quantity, Day 3

Just superstition which compels me to title the post that way at this point. The long-winded-writeup 2-unit plays have cashed two days in a row now, and college hoops went 2-0, +3 units overall last night. Today's college basketball top pick:

The Citadel at UNC-Greensboro

Betting Numbers

Opening line at Pinnacle: UNC-G -8
Current line at Pinnacle: UNC-G -7.5

Wagerline: 73% UNC-G
Sports Insights: 52% Citadel (???)

Injuries: None for either team

Personnel: Citadel has really solid play at the guard spots in Cameron Wells (16.9 pts, 6.6 reb, 2.0 assists per game) and Zach Urbanus (45.5% from 3-pt line), plus a proven 5th-year senior up front in 6-8 Demetrius Nelson (12.7 ppg, 4.4 reb). In Greensboro, they have two established players in 6-4 guard Mikko Koivisto (15.8 ppg) who is handling the point guard duties by default while they audition other players for the role, and 6-5 forward Ben Stywall (7.5 ppg, 8.0 reb) who is a great rebounder for his size, but is forced to play in the post due to the lack of any other competent big men.

Recent Performances: Both teams getting stomped by the big conference schools. Citadel has a couple of wins over low-level teams (Grambling, Charleston Southern). Both have lost to Central Arkansas, Citadel by 5 points and UNC-G by 13 (thus, by the transitive theorem of common opponents, Citadel is 8 points better than UNC-G, right? Well, not really, let's move on).

The Verdict

I'm not sure how much I trust that Sports Insights number compared with the huge number of wagerliners picking UNC-G. I was surprised to discover that Citadel seems to have the edge in personnel, with the superior backcourt group and the best post player up front (Nelson). Stywall is a workhorse, but is undersized at 6-5 and should be playing at small forward, not in the post. Unfortunately for UNC-G, there is nobody else to play up there. Combine all of that with the line retreat from +8 down to +7.5 at most books, and I'm sold on the Bulldogs.

The Pick: The Citadel +8 -109 (Matchbook), 2.18 units to win 2 units

Holy crap, I did a whole post about The Citadel and no references to "The Lords of Discipline." Amazing. Back tonight with the rest.

Wednesday Night Action

I'm babysitting the kid solo tonight (one of you is dialing Social Services right now...), so no time for rambling. The rest for Wednesday night:

College Basketball

Auburn +14 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

NBA

Grizzlies +8.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Timberwolves +9 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Clippers +11 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

NHL

St. Louis +162, 0.5 units to win 0.81 units

Good luck everybody.

Quality Over Quantity, Day 2

Won the 2-unit play on Clemson last night (barely), and actually ended up making money, although not in large amounts, in all 3 sports we played last night, which is nice. Another long-winded write-up for a college hoops pick, again from the ACC-Big Ten Challenge:

Penn State at Georgia Tech

Betting Numbers

Opening line at Pinnacle: Georgia Tech -8.5
Current line at Pinnacle: Georgia Tech -7.5

Wagerline: 55% Georgia Tech
Sports Insights: 62% Penn State

Injuries

Georgia Tech: D'Andre Bell out with injury. Lewis Clinch suspended (academics)
Penn State: No significant injuries

Personnel: Very close up and down the lineups. Forward Jamelle Cornley of Penn State the most proven player in the game.

Recent Performance

Georgia Tech: All cupcakes, baby, and they struggled against two of them (won by 4 in overtime at Mercer, won by 3 at home to the Jacksonville Dolphins [who?]).

Penn State: Dominated the cupcakes, beat Penn by 12 in the Palestra, and lost by 5 to Rhode Island.

The Verdict

No public consensus to fade, so we look to the line move and the players. In Penn State's loss to Rhode Island, Jimmy Baron and crew shot 47% from the 3-point line and 82% of their free throws (URI had 22 FT attempts compared to Penn State's 13). In that game, Penn State only managed 28% on 3-pointers, compared to their early season average of 43%. With Clinch and Bell, the #1 and #2 options at shooting guard coming into the season, sitting this one out, Tech's backcourt depth, which wasn't great to begin with, gets even shallower. Can you see where this is going yet? The line retreat from 8.5 to 7.5 seals the deal for us.

The Pick: Penn State +7 -101 (Matchbook), 2.02 units to win 2 units

The line is +7.5 -110 at several other books if you don't have a Matchbook account (you really should), or if you want that extra half-point. Back after work with the rest. Stop looking at the picture of Elisha Cuthbert and pay attention, dammit!

Sloppy Seconds?

You can get suspended from a supposedly major league sports league for taking a little shot like "sloppy seconds" at your ex-girlfriends and their new boyfriends? New boyfriends who you violently compete with for a living? With players failing drug tests and discharging firearms in crowded public places, it's hard to believe that this rises to the level of suspension.

Mostly though, it's just an excuse to put a picture of Elisha Cuthbert on the site, which can't hurt traffic. I think they should revoke the suspension and just let Jack Bauer take care of Avery.....

Tuesday Night Leftovers

I used up all of my babbling allowance on the Clemson pick earlier today, so just the picks with minimal commentary on the rest of them:

College Basketball

Middle Tennessee State -2.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Better at every position, which makes this look too good to be true, except that the betting seems to be slightly favoring Houston in this one.

NBA

Pacers +8 +119, 1 unit to win 1.19 units

Definitely like this better than the other option at Matchbook, which was +8.5 +108.

Raptors +5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

I'm not counting on Melo's elbow hindering him tonight, but I wouldn't mind.....

NHL

Florida +140, 0.5 units to win 0.7 units
Tampa Bay +162, 0.5 units to win 0.81 units

Hoping for some excellent goaltending from the Sunshine State teams tonight. Good luck everybody.

Quality Over Quantity

It's a little disheartening to be down 20 units in the sport at which I've done the best over the years (Grover is the baseball guy, but I've typically done well in college hoops), but it also gives me reason to believe I can turn it around since we're only one month into the season. For the moment, I think I'm going to try and shorten the list of picks each day, and narrow it down to just a couple/few I like the best. From the ACC/Big Ten Challenge:

Clemson at Illinois


Betting numbers

Opening line at Pinnacle: Illinois -2 (using Pinny b/c they're usually out first)
Current line at Pinnacle: Illinois -1

Wagerline: 57% Illinois
Sports Insights: 50% on each

Injuries: No significant injuries (Alex Legion suspended for Illinois)

Personnel: Pretty even at the guard spots, but a definitive edge for Clemson at the forward positions.

Recent Performance

Clemson: Neutral court victories over TCU and Temple. Barely escaped with a 1-point victory over Charlotte in their only true road game.

Illinois: Mostly feasting on patsies (although no margins of victory of more than 19 points, even against Jackson State, Texas-Corpus Christi, or Eastern Washington), but did win narrow neutral court victories vs. Tulsa and Kent State, in addition to an impressive road win over Vanderbilt.

The Verdict

Illinois' 6-point win at Vanderbilt looks nice on the resume, but the Illini shot 52.6% from the 3-point line in that game, which looks awfully flukey when compared against their season average of 34.6% (somebody who knows statistics better than me might call that shooting performance an "outlier" or an "anomaly" but I'll say "flukey"). I wouldn't expect that kind of shooting tonight. The Illini have no answer at power forward for Clemson's Trevor Booker, and the best player on the floor is probably Clemson's K.C. Rivers. No public consensus to go against, but the linesmakers are moving the line toward Clemson without any discernable reason, which makes me think that sharp money is coming in on the Tigers. Count me in.

The Pick: Clemson +1.5 -110 (WSEX), 2.2 units to win 2 units

Good luck everybody. Back this evening with the rest.

The Professionals

College hoops already posted at lunchtime. NBA/NHL picks for Monday night:

NBA

Timberwolves +3.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

This Timberwolves team just does not get blown out very often, and the Bobcats are hardly a powerhouse. Mostly, an anti-public pick, which feels weird because we've backed Charlotte lots of times for the same reason.

Celtics -9 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

Also available at -8.5 with worse juice, but we're going this way. Public very slightly favoring the Magic (you know, because the Magic are a "great road team"), but no significant consensus. Sportsbooks have moved from -8 to -9, so they're not exactly sold on the Magic tonight either. Anthony Johnson and JJ Redick can hold down the fort well enough when Howard is dominating the lesser frontcourts of some teams, but we don't think he'll have as easy a time with KG and Perkins, so the shortcomings in the backcourt will make for a long night in Boston for Orlando. You won't find us backing the defending World Champs very often, but there it is.

NHL

Anaheim +190, 0.5 units to win 0.95 units

With those wide flat feet, ducks probably do pretty well on ice, I would imagine. I can't name one player on either team, so I don't really have anything to else to say. Seriously, though, just from looking at the stats, I'm not sure how Detroit is a 2-to-1 favorite against Anaheim. I don't know much about hockey, but that line does not make sense, yet 65% of bettors like Detroit even with the huge number. Don't get it.

Good luck everybody.

Monday Night College Basketball

Basically broke even in college hoops yesterday, but ended up ahead in NFL, NBA, and NHL so maybe we're starting to break out of our funk (jinx alert!). An interesting post over at Sports Investments has gotten me thinking about early season college hoops betting - the gist being that not a lot of people are wagering on basketball yet (presumably because football is still dominating the industry and because conference season hasn't started yet), so maybe the consensus numbers aren't as helpful as they are later in the season when basketball is the only game in town. There have been picks we've made in basketball that were based almost completely on the betting percentages, and there have been some that we've passed that looked like winners based on the personnel but didn't have the public fade numbers. It's definitely something I'm going to be thinking about more in the next few weeks, and at the beginning of next season for sure.

With all that rambling out of the way, the picks for Monday night:

Cal-State Northridge +2.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Heavy public action on Drexel, and even though the books moved the line WITH the public (we typically prefer the opposite), I'm going to go against the public anyway based on my evaluation of the talent on these two teams. To me, Northridge is equal or better at every position and on the bench, so we'll take the couple of points.

Virginia Tech -2.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit

No consensus on this one, but I rate the Hokies as slightly better overall, and they're at home.

San Francisco +16.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit

USC not a great team this year, San Fran has a steady hand at point guard, and forward Dior Lowhorn is a load for anybody to defend. Add to that the sportsbooks' retreat from USC -17.5 down to -16.5 and this is one I can't pass.

Sacramento State -2.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Much.....better......team. And, they're at home and only giving a couple of points. That sounds a little square, but with wagerline less than 60%, it's not all that bad.

Good luck everybody. After all of my yapping, the gambling gods will probably reward us with an 0-4 night. Back later with any of the other sports.