I almost feel guilty about that Louisville cover last night, but I'm not giving the money back. 99% of the time, I'm on the underdog that goes into overtime and misses the spread. Tonight's picks:
College Basketball
Buffalo +5.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Subjectively, I don't see how Akron is that much better Buffalo. Just don't see it, even playing at Akron. I've never watched a game in the Zips home gym, but I would imagine we're not talking about Cameron Indoor Stadium here. Objectively, most folks are on Akron, but the line has retreated.
Central Florida +10 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Another line retreat in the face of decent support for UAB. Jermaine Taylor and a much deeper bench keep UCF within single digits.
Kansas State +7.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
The reigning National Champion getting 70% of the love from the public, while poor Kansas State is still pining for Michael Beasley. If Kansas is that much better, why hasn't the line gone up from the opener of Kansas -8.5 instead of dropping?
Northern Iowa +4 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Another 70% favorite in this one (Evansville), but no movement in the line. If the Purple Aces get spanked, do they get Purple Asses? I'm freaking hilarious.
Georgia State +12 +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units
If neither team gets 55 points, I imagine it's gonna be tough for ODU to cover this spread. I'm a little concerned about this line, since Georgia State just beat Old Dominion at home 10 days ago. Is the ODU homecourt edge worth 13 points? Maybe. I just hope it's not worth exactly 14 points, because I'll be kicking myself for not taking Georgia State +13 -108, even if the way I went was the right way to go.
NBA
Kings +7.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Passing Bobcats and Grizzlies because of injury question marks, but I haven't seen any such worries here. Kings are playing hard and keeping games close lately, even if they're not getting the straight-up wins. Sounds like my Thunder, although I fear that my love affair with OKC may be coming to an end as people are beginning to catch on.
Way too many picks on a night with so few games, but I weeded out as many as I reasonably could. I thought Tulsa would be a no-brainer when I first saw the lines last night, but that big line move today has scared me into a Pass. Indiana State is not a bad pick. Or Eastern Michigan. Or even Kentucky. Already mentioned Bobcats and Grizzlies in the NBA. See, I really did narrow it down. Good luck everybody.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Monday, January 12, 2009
Justice For Jim Rice, Plus Hoops Picks
Long overdue congrats to Hall of Famer Jim Rice. I can't quote you all of his stats, although I remember that he won at least one MVP and was an All-Star for a long time, but when I was kid, this guy was feared. For several years, the guys pitchers absolutely didn't want to face were Mike Schmidt and Jim Rice (and Reggie Jackson was still in there somewhere I think), and it took 15 years of voting to get him in. Ridiculous. Better late than never, I guess. With him and Art Monk both finally in, I have a lot less to whine about Hall-of-Fame-wise. Tonight's basketball:
NBA
Thunder +6.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Bulls +2 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Betting and line movement. Although I pick them everyday, I swear I don't think Oklahoma City is a good team. And that Bulls pick makes me a little queasy, but I'm not going to argue with the big run we've been on since we let go of all rational thought when picking NBA games. Luke.....let go....use the Force....
College Basketball
Louisville -6 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
This one makes me a little queasy, too, but I just don't believe that the guys running the sportsbooks woke up this morning and decided that they were just going to give away free money to 80% of their customers. I just don't believe that. That huge number of bettors on Notre Dame can't move this line at all? Bullshit.
The Citadel +3 -116, 1.16 units to win 1 unit
I'm really annoyed by the college hoops juice I'm paying tonight, but it is what it is. I think I have might have some kind of man-crush on this Citadel team, so beware on this one. Line moving in their favor, we'll take the home team.
Appalachian State +11 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit
More lousy juice (the alternative was +10.5 -110 which is worse). Like I don't think OKC is a good team just because I pick them all the time, I don't think Davidson is bad just because I seem to pick against them all the time. I just think they're not as good as the lines would suggest (or, in other words, not as good as the public thinks they are after hearing about Stephen Curry on ESPN all the time). Big support for Davidson, but no movement in the line all day. Go Mountaineers.
P.S. Rickey just called on behalf of Rickey and said that Rickey likes these picks.
Wherein I Fix College Football
I need something to take my mind off the fact that my beloved UNC Tar Heels have started out 0-2 in the ACC this morning. Usually, my job would do the trick, but it's an exceedingly slow morning at the office today. So I'll take about 20 minutes to solve the most vexing riddle in sports-- how to decide the college football Division 1-A national championship. I will assume that almost everyone would like a system that: (1) is fair; (2) protects tradition, i.e. the bowl games and the importance of the regular season and conference races; (3) doesn't place too much of a strain on the student-athletes; and (4) protects financial/scheduling interests of the schools, the networks, etc. With this in mind, here's what I've got. Hey, it's gotta start somewhere:
The championship will be decided by a twelve-team playoff. Four teams, all champions of one of the BCS conferences, will receive byes. They will be the top four conference-winning teams as ranked by a formula similar to the BCS (I'll get to this later). These teams will "host" four bowl games, all played on New Year's Day. The teams are subjectively assigned to the bowls based on tradition and geography by an NCAA Bowl Committee: Generally, Pac-10 or Big Ten champion to the Rose Bowl, Big 12 or Pac-10 champion to the Fiesta Bowl. SEC or Big 12 to the Sugar Bowl. SEC, ACC or Big East to the Orange Bowl.
The remaining eight teams will take part in play-in games. These eight teams will be as follows: the remaining two conference champions will host a game on their campus. The other two teams hosting play-in games will be the top two remaining teams according to the BCS formula. The final four teams will be the last four teams according to the BCS formula. However, any BCS Division 1-A team that is undefeated gets an automatic spot in the "bowl play-in" round. This is non-negotiable. If the powers that be think a team's entire conference slate is too weak to warrant inclusion, then they shouldn't be in Division 1-A.
The play-in games will be grouped with a bowl by an NCAA committee in accordance with the following procedure: (1) making sure teams from the same conference do not match up in the bowl games; (2) tradition (e.g. if the Big Ten champ doesn't get a bye, give it a chance to "play in" to the Rose Bowl); and (3) geography. These games take place on Xmas Eve and Xmas Day (two games each). As a Jew, I'll leave it to someone else to figure out the best way to schedule them without interfering with Gentile family bonding time.
All four bowl games happen on New Year's Day. The day starts with the Orange Bowl kicking off at 11:30 AM EST, the Sugar Bowl at 3 PM, the Rose Bowl at 6:30 PM (there's something about the sun still shining out west during the Rose Bowl kickoff, in my opinion), and the Fiesta Bowl at 10PM. Presto: college football's postseason recaptures the New Year's holiday and in one swoop turns it into the greatest single day in the couch potato calendar. As it should be.
National semifinals take place the first full weekend after new year's, i.e. at least seven days after new year's. There's a bit of a scheduling concern here, since this would likely be the NFL's divisional playoff weekend, and those games cover Saturday and Sunday. I'd propose playing one national semifinal on Friday night, and the other on Saturday at 1 PM, before the NFL games kick off. These two games take place at a single neutral site. Semifinal matchups rotate among the bowls every year, i.e. one year Sugar plays Rose and Orange plays Fiesta, next year Sugar plays Orange and Rose plays Fiesta, etc.
The National Championship takes place the following Saturday evening at a different neutral site. It should be in a different region of the country from the semifinal site, ensuring that no team has to travel cross-country twice in consecutive weekends.
The other bowl games remain intact. College basketball has an NIT tourney with its own tradition that has remained viable in the shadow of a much larger and more inclusive tournament, and the same thing would happen here. They'd get what they get now- die-hard backers/people seeking a vacation excuse plus curious locals in the stands, serious fans and gamblers in the TV audience.
Here are the advantages to my system:
* the obvious one is that it gives the fans (and most of the teams) the playoff that they crave while protecting the bowl game traditions they also love.
* By starting the playoff over Xmas weekend, you don't have that full month break after the end of the regular season which results in complete loss of momentum for the sport.
* The finances are still there for both ESPN, which will start broadcasting the BCS in 2011, and the schools and conferences, which can use the same profit-sharing system they currently employ for the BCS, except now there's an additional two games' worth of revenue to add to the kitty (7 instead of the current 5). In fact, you have four extra games (the play-in games) to add to the mix. I don't know what ESPN's agreement is with the NCAA and what contingencies the contract addresses, but either ESPN would have yet another cash cow, or the NCAA would have four new and valuable games that they could auction off to the highest network bidder, depending on who had better lawyers negotiating the BCS broadcast agreement.
* The obvious and significant advantages for quality conference champions, and the automatic spot bestowed upon undefeated non-conference champions, ensure that every team kicks off the year with a shot at the title, and that the college football regular season remains as important and exciting as it is now.
* While there will still be gripes about who gets an at-large bid, arguments about snubs will be forgotten as soon as the bowl play-in games kick off, just as they are in college basketball. Honestly, can you remember who Vitale and Packer were whining about as "snubs" last March? Of course not. Do you know why? Because ultimately, the tourney is about choosing a national champion, and if you are even remotely snub-able, then you don't really belong in the conversation. As opposed to, say, Utah and USC this college football year, who have entirely legitimate gripes.
* No University is in session during Xmas and the New Year. So at most, you will have four schools who have to play "extra" football during the academic year. If they are really that concerned about it, they can opt out of the tournament. Hey, the Ivy League does it every year, so stop whining. If you're really concerned, then put your money where your mouth is.
About the BCS rankings: I'd like to see the computers be a bigger factor, and they need to be permitted to determine the team rankings in any manner they consider fair, including point differentials. Bill James has explained why better and more intelligently than I could. I won't get into it in greater detail here. But he makes some important points.
Finally, there's what the 2008 season playoff might have looked like under my system:
Orange Bowl: Penn State vs. (winner of Alabama at Virginia Tech)
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. (winner of Texas Tech at Cincinnati)
Rose Bowl: USC vs. (winner of Ohio State at Texas)
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. (winner of Boise State at Utah)
Sweet Jesus, that would have been awesome. Feel free to tell me why this won't work in the comments. Or, you know, forward it to your favorite sports blog if you can't find a hole. I'd add more commentary, but my phone and inbox are finally starting to get warm.
The championship will be decided by a twelve-team playoff. Four teams, all champions of one of the BCS conferences, will receive byes. They will be the top four conference-winning teams as ranked by a formula similar to the BCS (I'll get to this later). These teams will "host" four bowl games, all played on New Year's Day. The teams are subjectively assigned to the bowls based on tradition and geography by an NCAA Bowl Committee: Generally, Pac-10 or Big Ten champion to the Rose Bowl, Big 12 or Pac-10 champion to the Fiesta Bowl. SEC or Big 12 to the Sugar Bowl. SEC, ACC or Big East to the Orange Bowl.
The remaining eight teams will take part in play-in games. These eight teams will be as follows: the remaining two conference champions will host a game on their campus. The other two teams hosting play-in games will be the top two remaining teams according to the BCS formula. The final four teams will be the last four teams according to the BCS formula. However, any BCS Division 1-A team that is undefeated gets an automatic spot in the "bowl play-in" round. This is non-negotiable. If the powers that be think a team's entire conference slate is too weak to warrant inclusion, then they shouldn't be in Division 1-A.
The play-in games will be grouped with a bowl by an NCAA committee in accordance with the following procedure: (1) making sure teams from the same conference do not match up in the bowl games; (2) tradition (e.g. if the Big Ten champ doesn't get a bye, give it a chance to "play in" to the Rose Bowl); and (3) geography. These games take place on Xmas Eve and Xmas Day (two games each). As a Jew, I'll leave it to someone else to figure out the best way to schedule them without interfering with Gentile family bonding time.
All four bowl games happen on New Year's Day. The day starts with the Orange Bowl kicking off at 11:30 AM EST, the Sugar Bowl at 3 PM, the Rose Bowl at 6:30 PM (there's something about the sun still shining out west during the Rose Bowl kickoff, in my opinion), and the Fiesta Bowl at 10PM. Presto: college football's postseason recaptures the New Year's holiday and in one swoop turns it into the greatest single day in the couch potato calendar. As it should be.
National semifinals take place the first full weekend after new year's, i.e. at least seven days after new year's. There's a bit of a scheduling concern here, since this would likely be the NFL's divisional playoff weekend, and those games cover Saturday and Sunday. I'd propose playing one national semifinal on Friday night, and the other on Saturday at 1 PM, before the NFL games kick off. These two games take place at a single neutral site. Semifinal matchups rotate among the bowls every year, i.e. one year Sugar plays Rose and Orange plays Fiesta, next year Sugar plays Orange and Rose plays Fiesta, etc.
The National Championship takes place the following Saturday evening at a different neutral site. It should be in a different region of the country from the semifinal site, ensuring that no team has to travel cross-country twice in consecutive weekends.
The other bowl games remain intact. College basketball has an NIT tourney with its own tradition that has remained viable in the shadow of a much larger and more inclusive tournament, and the same thing would happen here. They'd get what they get now- die-hard backers/people seeking a vacation excuse plus curious locals in the stands, serious fans and gamblers in the TV audience.
Here are the advantages to my system:
* the obvious one is that it gives the fans (and most of the teams) the playoff that they crave while protecting the bowl game traditions they also love.
* By starting the playoff over Xmas weekend, you don't have that full month break after the end of the regular season which results in complete loss of momentum for the sport.
* The finances are still there for both ESPN, which will start broadcasting the BCS in 2011, and the schools and conferences, which can use the same profit-sharing system they currently employ for the BCS, except now there's an additional two games' worth of revenue to add to the kitty (7 instead of the current 5). In fact, you have four extra games (the play-in games) to add to the mix. I don't know what ESPN's agreement is with the NCAA and what contingencies the contract addresses, but either ESPN would have yet another cash cow, or the NCAA would have four new and valuable games that they could auction off to the highest network bidder, depending on who had better lawyers negotiating the BCS broadcast agreement.
* The obvious and significant advantages for quality conference champions, and the automatic spot bestowed upon undefeated non-conference champions, ensure that every team kicks off the year with a shot at the title, and that the college football regular season remains as important and exciting as it is now.
* While there will still be gripes about who gets an at-large bid, arguments about snubs will be forgotten as soon as the bowl play-in games kick off, just as they are in college basketball. Honestly, can you remember who Vitale and Packer were whining about as "snubs" last March? Of course not. Do you know why? Because ultimately, the tourney is about choosing a national champion, and if you are even remotely snub-able, then you don't really belong in the conversation. As opposed to, say, Utah and USC this college football year, who have entirely legitimate gripes.
* No University is in session during Xmas and the New Year. So at most, you will have four schools who have to play "extra" football during the academic year. If they are really that concerned about it, they can opt out of the tournament. Hey, the Ivy League does it every year, so stop whining. If you're really concerned, then put your money where your mouth is.
About the BCS rankings: I'd like to see the computers be a bigger factor, and they need to be permitted to determine the team rankings in any manner they consider fair, including point differentials. Bill James has explained why better and more intelligently than I could. I won't get into it in greater detail here. But he makes some important points.
Finally, there's what the 2008 season playoff might have looked like under my system:
Orange Bowl: Penn State vs. (winner of Alabama at Virginia Tech)
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. (winner of Texas Tech at Cincinnati)
Rose Bowl: USC vs. (winner of Ohio State at Texas)
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. (winner of Boise State at Utah)
Sweet Jesus, that would have been awesome. Feel free to tell me why this won't work in the comments. Or, you know, forward it to your favorite sports blog if you can't find a hole. I'd add more commentary, but my phone and inbox are finally starting to get warm.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Sunday Night Basketball
Lots to do today, so here's all the rest:
NBA
Kings +3 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
College Basketball
Western Michigan -1.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Wake Forest +5.5 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Southern California +2 -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
No time for individual explanations today, but if you've been reading this blog for more than 5 minutes, you can probably guess how we arrived at these. Good luck everybody.
NBA
Kings +3 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
College Basketball
Western Michigan -1.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Wake Forest +5.5 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Southern California +2 -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
No time for individual explanations today, but if you've been reading this blog for more than 5 minutes, you can probably guess how we arrived at these. Good luck everybody.
Sunday Afternoon Basketball
Not a whole lot going on today. Here are the early hoops picks:
NBA
76ers +6 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
I'm not working too hard this Sunday. Betting and line movement.
College Basketball
Kent State +2.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Here again, just following the line movement.
Iona +4.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Now, this one is really interesting. A week ago, at home, Iona lost to Rider by 14 points. Today, going to Rider's gym, they are only 4.5-point dogs? That's about as fishy as it gets. Line opened at Rider -6 and has dropped pretty quickly over the last hour (all the way to +4 at BetUS), even with 68% of the wagerline crowd on Rider. Win or lose, you would have to to hire a guy named "Slugga" to stop me from playing this one.
I don't think Grover is going to have anything in the NFL games today, but I'll probably be back with something for basketball tonight.
NBA
76ers +6 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
I'm not working too hard this Sunday. Betting and line movement.
College Basketball
Kent State +2.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Here again, just following the line movement.
Iona +4.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Now, this one is really interesting. A week ago, at home, Iona lost to Rider by 14 points. Today, going to Rider's gym, they are only 4.5-point dogs? That's about as fishy as it gets. Line opened at Rider -6 and has dropped pretty quickly over the last hour (all the way to +4 at BetUS), even with 68% of the wagerline crowd on Rider. Win or lose, you would have to to hire a guy named "Slugga" to stop me from playing this one.
I don't think Grover is going to have anything in the NFL games today, but I'll probably be back with something for basketball tonight.
Saturday's Headlines
-
Carolina Panthers Lose Battle, Lose War
Governor Blagojevich Appoints Under-Qualified Ravens to Vacant Playoff Seat
Cowboys Fed-Ex Release Papers, Pac-Man Shoots The Messenger
Shivering Satan Asks, "What Happened? Did Duke Win In Tallahassee?"
Murray Wins Easily, Roddick Claims Hot-Model-Fatigue Syndrome
Yankees Pick Up Stephon Marbury Contract "Just For Show"
Clemson Tigers Improve To 16-0, Book NIT Hotel Reservations Early
Bears Tired Of Defense Overshadowing Offense, Hire Marinelli As D-Coordinator
Huggins Walks Fine Line At Marquette, Stumbles Badly
_
Carolina Panthers Lose Battle, Lose War
Governor Blagojevich Appoints Under-Qualified Ravens to Vacant Playoff Seat
Cowboys Fed-Ex Release Papers, Pac-Man Shoots The Messenger
Shivering Satan Asks, "What Happened? Did Duke Win In Tallahassee?"
Murray Wins Easily, Roddick Claims Hot-Model-Fatigue Syndrome
Yankees Pick Up Stephon Marbury Contract "Just For Show"
Clemson Tigers Improve To 16-0, Book NIT Hotel Reservations Early
Bears Tired Of Defense Overshadowing Offense, Hire Marinelli As D-Coordinator
Huggins Walks Fine Line At Marquette, Stumbles Badly
_
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Calling It A Night
I've been on the fence about UC-Riverside for the past couple of hours, but since we're 5-1 in college hoops already today, and I'm not completely sold on it, it's gonna be a pass. Thought about LMU as well, but didn't like it quite as much as Riverside. Back tomorrow to do it all over again.
Saturday Evening Hoops
The next group of basketball picks:
NBA
Knicks +6 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Sounds like a broken record, but again just going with the line move and against the public's slight lean to the Rockets. Injury concerns for the home team tonight also.
College Basketball
The Citadel +17 -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit
That recent line drop back down to 16.5 or even 16 at most books seals the deal on this one. Overrated team vs. Underrated team. Citadel playing at home where they keep all their firearms, just in case things get out of hand.
Elon +10 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Public seems to like Western Carolina by double digits, but line has held pretty steady.
Illinois-Chicago +8.5 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Around 70% on Cleveland State all day, and in a matchup with two good teams, we'll go against the public where all those recreational bets weren't enough to budge the line an inch.
Good luck everybody. Considering one or two more for late night, but no promises.
NBA
Knicks +6 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Sounds like a broken record, but again just going with the line move and against the public's slight lean to the Rockets. Injury concerns for the home team tonight also.
College Basketball
The Citadel +17 -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit
That recent line drop back down to 16.5 or even 16 at most books seals the deal on this one. Overrated team vs. Underrated team. Citadel playing at home where they keep all their firearms, just in case things get out of hand.
Elon +10 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Public seems to like Western Carolina by double digits, but line has held pretty steady.
Illinois-Chicago +8.5 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Around 70% on Cleveland State all day, and in a matchup with two good teams, we'll go against the public where all those recreational bets weren't enough to budge the line an inch.
Good luck everybody. Considering one or two more for late night, but no promises.
Saturday Early Hoops Picks
Just a few in the early hours:
Hofstra +14 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Slight consensus on VCU (63%) at Wagerline, line has taken a small step backwards. A few points too many.
Georgia Tech +7.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
No public consensus to go against, betting split right down the middle pretty much everywhere, but with the retreat from the opener of +8.5, and my subjective (square!) preference for the Yellow Jackets' athleticism and the rebounding of Lawal & Aminu, we're going with the line move here.
Providence +11 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
There are some very smart people out there (Pomeroy, Vegas Watch, etc.) who love the Hoyas based on win/loss margins, and the numbers are what they are, but I'm just not sold. Outside of the UConn win, their results aren't overwhelming and for God's sake can somebody on that team grab a rebound once in a while? Providence has balanced scoring, solid bench production, and with the line falling from the Pinnacle opener of Georgetown -12 in the face of decent public support for the Hoyas (62% Wagerline, 70% Sportsbook, 73% Carib, 61% Sports Insights), we're on the Friars this afternoon.
I'm predicting that there will be more plays later. Just a hunch.
Hofstra +14 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Slight consensus on VCU (63%) at Wagerline, line has taken a small step backwards. A few points too many.
Georgia Tech +7.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
No public consensus to go against, betting split right down the middle pretty much everywhere, but with the retreat from the opener of +8.5, and my subjective (square!) preference for the Yellow Jackets' athleticism and the rebounding of Lawal & Aminu, we're going with the line move here.
Providence +11 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
There are some very smart people out there (Pomeroy, Vegas Watch, etc.) who love the Hoyas based on win/loss margins, and the numbers are what they are, but I'm just not sold. Outside of the UConn win, their results aren't overwhelming and for God's sake can somebody on that team grab a rebound once in a while? Providence has balanced scoring, solid bench production, and with the line falling from the Pinnacle opener of Georgetown -12 in the face of decent public support for the Hoyas (62% Wagerline, 70% Sportsbook, 73% Carib, 61% Sports Insights), we're on the Friars this afternoon.
I'm predicting that there will be more plays later. Just a hunch.
NFL Divisional Playoffs
But first, how about a salute to my aging partner, dating himself with that Norm McDonald reference? I'm surprised he didn't opt for a Burns and Allen crack.
Not a lot to like this week. One underdog, the Cardinals, is getting a lot of points, but also a lot of the action, which of course we don't like. Two other road dogs, Baltimore and Philly, are the top two teams in the DVOA rankings. I was ready to play the Eagles at the +6 or +7 number I expected, but alas, Vegas denied me and put them at +4. The final game, San Diego at Pittsbugh, just leaves us feeling blah.
So we're gonna fade one of our favorite/most profitable teams this season. Ugh. I feel dirty.
Tennessee Titans -3 +111 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.11 units.
The Ravens are actually getting the majority of the action as a three-point underdog. Tennessee appears to have fallen out of favor with the public, but I'm not exactly sure why. They have been playing well, and now they're healthy again (except for Kevin Mawae). In fact, Sportscenter is playing in the background as I type, and they just said Vanden Bosch and Hanynesworth are good to go. Baltimore is the top team in the DVOA rankings, but the Titans are close enough to the top to make them a decent play at home with an extra week of rest in the playoffs. I think the recent runs by the Giants and Steelers from the wild card slots have made a lot of people forget about the historically enormous edge that the home teams have in this round. Remember how a couple of years ago these games were almost formalities setting up a Conference championship between the top two teams? I don't think two impressive runs by the Steelers and Giants changes things that much.
Not a lot to like this week. One underdog, the Cardinals, is getting a lot of points, but also a lot of the action, which of course we don't like. Two other road dogs, Baltimore and Philly, are the top two teams in the DVOA rankings. I was ready to play the Eagles at the +6 or +7 number I expected, but alas, Vegas denied me and put them at +4. The final game, San Diego at Pittsbugh, just leaves us feeling blah.
So we're gonna fade one of our favorite/most profitable teams this season. Ugh. I feel dirty.
Tennessee Titans -3 +111 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.11 units.
The Ravens are actually getting the majority of the action as a three-point underdog. Tennessee appears to have fallen out of favor with the public, but I'm not exactly sure why. They have been playing well, and now they're healthy again (except for Kevin Mawae). In fact, Sportscenter is playing in the background as I type, and they just said Vanden Bosch and Hanynesworth are good to go. Baltimore is the top team in the DVOA rankings, but the Titans are close enough to the top to make them a decent play at home with an extra week of rest in the playoffs. I think the recent runs by the Giants and Steelers from the wild card slots have made a lot of people forget about the historically enormous edge that the home teams have in this round. Remember how a couple of years ago these games were almost formalities setting up a Conference championship between the top two teams? I don't think two impressive runs by the Steelers and Giants changes things that much.
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