Great day yesterday, now we'll see if the luck goes the other way today. Hopefully, by picking 2 schools named after saints, we'll get some divine intervention:
College Basketball
UNC-Charlotte +2.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Huge support for the road favorite, but the line is holding pretty steady.
St. John's +10.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Same story as with Charlotte. The Johnnies look like a completely different team at MSG than on the road. Double-digit home dogs always picque our interest.
St. Louis +5.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Three in a row where the line's holding steady despite solid betting numbers for their opponent.
NBA
Cavaliers -5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
I'm really excited to play the Cavs for the first and probably last time this season. Tired of the mouth-breathers getting all the Lebron fun. Big Z is back but nobody seems to be talking about it.
Timberwolves +4 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
The public loves the Hornets tonight, but I wonder if they've taken the time to look and see that the Hornets are starting Ryan Bowen and Antonio Daniels. Yikes.
NHL
Nashville +150 (WSEX), 0.5 units to win 0.75 units
Line dropped overnight. Defense! (clap)(clap) Defense! (clap)(clap) Goaltending and penalty killing give the Predators a good chance to pull the upset today.
That's probably it from me today. Good luck everybody.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Saturday Night
No time for rambling. The rest of the picks:
College Basketball
Duquesne +6 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
New Mexico State +6.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Wright State +2 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Florida International +1.5 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
UTEP +4 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
NBA
Clippers +6.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Nets +2.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Toronto +192, 0.5 units to win 0.96 units
Florida +176, 0.5 units to win 0.88 units
Los Angeles +174, 0.5 units to win 0.87 units
Whew. That all, folks. Enjoy.
College Basketball
Duquesne +6 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
New Mexico State +6.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Wright State +2 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Florida International +1.5 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
UTEP +4 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
NBA
Clippers +6.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Nets +2.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Toronto +192, 0.5 units to win 0.96 units
Florida +176, 0.5 units to win 0.88 units
Los Angeles +174, 0.5 units to win 0.87 units
Whew. That all, folks. Enjoy.
Southern Living
Haven't gotten to tonight's games yet, but there's still not a lot to love about today's card. Two dogs in the Southern Conference for the late afternoon:
Furman +6 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Another unpopular home dog with whom the books seem to be making a stand. The fact that Chattanooga won by 27 points when these two teams played in Chattanooga earlier this season makes this 6-point spread look all the more fishy.
College of Charleston +17 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit
Public on those lovable Davidson Wildcats, but the line has moved the other way. Charleston doesn't have a star like Curry, but they have a much deeper bench, and they're going to need all the bodies they can get on the defensive end. It doesn't seem possible that Davidson could continue to hit 3-pointers at home at a 47% clip. Hopefully, today is the day they start coming back to Earth.
Back later after I find time to look at tonight's games.
Furman +6 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Another unpopular home dog with whom the books seem to be making a stand. The fact that Chattanooga won by 27 points when these two teams played in Chattanooga earlier this season makes this 6-point spread look all the more fishy.
College of Charleston +17 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit
Public on those lovable Davidson Wildcats, but the line has moved the other way. Charleston doesn't have a star like Curry, but they have a much deeper bench, and they're going to need all the bodies they can get on the defensive end. It doesn't seem possible that Davidson could continue to hit 3-pointers at home at a 47% clip. Hopefully, today is the day they start coming back to Earth.
Back later after I find time to look at tonight's games.
Early Saturday Hoops - Not Much There
Nothing looking all that great in the early part of today's card. Just two decent-looking home dogs:
Rider +5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Line holding steady, public support for Siena, home team getting 5. This one just squeaks in.
Auburn +3 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Don't love the little half-point move I'm seeing at other books, but the support for Tennessee out there is huge. If Kovortney Barber can hit just 50% of his free throws, the Tigers (or War Eagles, if you prefer) have a shot at winning this one at home.
Hopefully, there will be more good spots in the later games.
Rider +5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Line holding steady, public support for Siena, home team getting 5. This one just squeaks in.
Auburn +3 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Don't love the little half-point move I'm seeing at other books, but the support for Tennessee out there is huge. If Kovortney Barber can hit just 50% of his free throws, the Tigers (or War Eagles, if you prefer) have a shot at winning this one at home.
Hopefully, there will be more good spots in the later games.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Laid-Back Friday Night
Not much going on tonight. The picks:
NBA
Clippers +4.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
The Clippers have really sunk to a new low when the Grizzlies have 70% support against them at wagerline. The Grizzlies, for God's sake! With Baron and Zach back, maybe the Clips have a chance to keep this one close. Or maybe they'll lose by 25 points.
Kings +2.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Holy shit, this one is ugly. Wow.
College Basketball
South Florida +9 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
We didn't really have any choice about this one. Home team getting 9 and the line not budging all day, despite 72% on Marquette. Pomeroy says 8. Unavoidable.
NHL
Columbus +170, 0.5 units to win 0.85 units
I'm trying to think of something clever to say here. Too tired. Just imagine I said something witty (for the first time ever) and then chuckle a little bit. I appreciate your cooperation.
NBA
Clippers +4.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
The Clippers have really sunk to a new low when the Grizzlies have 70% support against them at wagerline. The Grizzlies, for God's sake! With Baron and Zach back, maybe the Clips have a chance to keep this one close. Or maybe they'll lose by 25 points.
Kings +2.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Holy shit, this one is ugly. Wow.
College Basketball
South Florida +9 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
We didn't really have any choice about this one. Home team getting 9 and the line not budging all day, despite 72% on Marquette. Pomeroy says 8. Unavoidable.
NHL
Columbus +170, 0.5 units to win 0.85 units
I'm trying to think of something clever to say here. Too tired. Just imagine I said something witty (for the first time ever) and then chuckle a little bit. I appreciate your cooperation.
The Bookmaker Fade List - 2/6/09
The ten most popular bets today according to Bookmaker, and as you might have guessed on a Friday, almost completely comprised of NBA games:
1. Magic
2. Celtics
3. Marquette (the only non-NBA game)
4. Nuggets
5. Grizzlies
6. Raptors
7. Warriors
8. Blazers
9. Jazz
10. Hawks
The list went 4-6 yesterday, but the way the squares have been cleaning up in the NBA this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go 7-3 tonight. We won't be on the same side on any of these, and definitely will be on the opposite of a few, you know, because we're gluttons for punishment.
Friday Afternoon Tennis - "Movie Star" Edition
3-0 yesterday including 2 underdogs, one of which (Stakhovsky) paid +212. Nice. Now that I've sufficiently jinxed myself, our first pick from the Movistar Open in Chile. I'm pronouncing that "Movie Star" but maybe I'm just an ignorant gringo:
P. Cuevas +114 (Matchbook) over P. Capdeville, 0.5 units to win 0.57 units
When the line initially dropped from +125 to +117 at Pinnacle, I was definitely expecting to post this play last night. But, when I went back and looked a couple of hours later, the line had unexpectedly jumped back up +128. This morning, I wake up to find it has moved the opposite direction, so we're back in business. Here are the notes I made on each player during limited work breaks yesterday:
P. Cuevas - Decent clay-court player from Uruguay (Uruguay?). Semi-finalist here last year. Impressive win over #3 seed Montanes (world rank = #40) in the last round.
P. Capdeville - Eh? Only potential edge is that he's playing in his home country.
So, there you have it. Getting the underdog money on a player I think is a little bit better. That's about all you can ask for. I believe this match is scheduled to start around 5 PM Eastern, but I can't promise that.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Five for Thursday
I've got some extra tennis money that I need to get rid of, so here are 5 college hoops picks for Thursday night:
Youngstown State +7.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Loyola-Chicago already beat Youngstown by 11 points in Youngstown's gym earlier this season, but they're only favored by 7.5 against them at home? Fishy, fishy, fishy. Even with the earlier victory, Pomeroy's numbers have Loy-Chi winning by 6.
Oregon State +4 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
The Beavers have been playing very well since the Presidential Inauguration of their coach's brother-in-law. Coincidence? I think not!
New Mexico State +11 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Public on Utah State (Sports Interaction says 89%, which seems a little much, but still), but line hasn't budged all day.
Santa Clara +5.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Very disappointing season for San Diego, and I don't see them recovering with Johnson out for the season. Public still loves them, though, probably in part because they already beat Santa Clara at Santa Clara this year.
Washington State +4.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Here again, big support for Stanford but no line movement. There's big money coming in on Wash. St. and/or the books are taking a stand with Wash. St. Either way, I'd rather be on their side than the squares. Pomeroy has Stanford winning by only 2, Sagarin says 4.
No NBA (nothing looks good) or NHL (didn't have time to look) tonight, so this is likely it, except that there could be a tennis pick for tomorrow posted later (gonna see what the lines do for a couple of hours). Good luck everybody.
Youngstown State +7.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Loyola-Chicago already beat Youngstown by 11 points in Youngstown's gym earlier this season, but they're only favored by 7.5 against them at home? Fishy, fishy, fishy. Even with the earlier victory, Pomeroy's numbers have Loy-Chi winning by 6.
Oregon State +4 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
The Beavers have been playing very well since the Presidential Inauguration of their coach's brother-in-law. Coincidence? I think not!
New Mexico State +11 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Public on Utah State (Sports Interaction says 89%, which seems a little much, but still), but line hasn't budged all day.
Santa Clara +5.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Very disappointing season for San Diego, and I don't see them recovering with Johnson out for the season. Public still loves them, though, probably in part because they already beat Santa Clara at Santa Clara this year.
Washington State +4.5 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Here again, big support for Stanford but no line movement. There's big money coming in on Wash. St. and/or the books are taking a stand with Wash. St. Either way, I'd rather be on their side than the squares. Pomeroy has Stanford winning by only 2, Sagarin says 4.
No NBA (nothing looks good) or NHL (didn't have time to look) tonight, so this is likely it, except that there could be a tennis pick for tomorrow posted later (gonna see what the lines do for a couple of hours). Good luck everybody.
The Bookmaker Fade List - 2/5/09
Otherwise known as today's Top Ten Most Popular Bets according to Bookmaker. It looks like the list would have gone 5-5 yesterday for a small loss at the standard Bookmaker -110 juice. If you are a super-duper-square, you are playing these today:
1. Lakers
2. Sixers
3. Rhode Island (this one seems strange to me)
4. Illinois
5. Xavier
6. Penn State
7. Butler
8. Bruins
9. Mavericks
10. Stars
The city of Dallas snags two spots in the Top Ten today. The Cowboys homers must have reloaded their accounts. Back after work.
1. Lakers
2. Sixers
3. Rhode Island (this one seems strange to me)
4. Illinois
5. Xavier
6. Penn State
7. Butler
8. Bruins
9. Mavericks
10. Stars
The city of Dallas snags two spots in the Top Ten today. The Cowboys homers must have reloaded their accounts. Back after work.
Last-Minute Thursday Morning Tennis
Well, that Garcia-Lopez match I posted Tuesday night finally got started while I was sleeping last night and ended up a winner. This morning, two from Zagreb, Croatia:
M. Zverev +122 (Matchbook) over V. Hanescu, 0.5 units to win 0.61 units
Already cashed a nice underdog win on Zverev in the last round, so maybe pushing my luck here. Zverev is a good hardcourt player, but I think we're getting value here because nobody has ever heard of him. Line has dropped overnight which makes me think somebody in the know likes Zverev also. Hanescu always more comfortable on the clay courts than on today's surface (indoor hardcourt). Zverev has some good wins last year on this surface (Ferrer, Kohlschreiber), and I'm counting on him to advance.
S. Stakhovsky +212 (Matchbook) over I. Karlovic, 0.5 units to win 1.06 units
The unknown player versus the #3 seed who has one of the most feared serves in all of tennis (it helps that Karlovic is 6-foot-10). Of course, you wouldn't know unless you did a little poking around that Stakhovsky is actually the defending champion at this event and beat Karlovic on his way to the title last year. Getting +200 seems like a stretch here.
Apologies for the late notice, I think the Zverev match starts in about an hour and a half, and then Stakhovsky/Karlovic at around 11 AM Eastern. Couldn't stay up last night to watch the lines, and just got my first chance to see how they moved a few minutes ago. But, if it's a pick, it's a pick, and it goes on the blog. Have a good day, folks.
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