Just like yesterday, we couldn't agree on anything among the afternoon games, but found two night games we liked.
Brewers +120 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.20 units
The always overrated Zambrano brings his bat-breaking act to Milwaukee. Public all over the Cubs, but expect Braun and Fielder to make the difference in this one.
Giants +159 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.59 units
My memory is that we had success last year backing the young lefty Giants starter, Jonathan Sanchez, but casual bettors have still probably never heard of him. Padres always get a little higher line than they should when Peavy is on the mound, but with no offense and a shaky defense behind him, Peavy just can't do it by himself all the time. Good number for us in this one.
Back tomorrow. Good luck everybody.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Friday, April 10, 2009
Friday Night Baseball
Nothing made the cut for the afternoon (Bluejays was the only one that was close), but we agreed on 2 for tonight:
Twins +140, 1 unit to win 1.40 units
This is not a game I'd be looking forward to watching. Both pitchers are equally awful so getting +140 on either side looks like value to us, and the 66% of wagerliners on the White Sox makes it look even better. Like the old saying goes, "When betting on a shit-eating contest, you might as well go with the underdog." That's a saying, right?
Mariners +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units
After last year's well-known disappointment, the Mariners will likely continue to be underrated for a while, which is good for those of us paying attention. The Griffey signing might not make much difference, but defensive improvements like Gutierrez and Chavez in the outfield are really going to help this team. The CHONE projections on Oakland's starter, Brett Anderson, aren't terrible, but he's not as good as Rowland-Smith (at least, not yet). Another good number to take a stab at.
That's it for today. I tried to talk Grover into Mike Hampton, if only for the humor value, but he wouldn't go for it. When his arm falls completely off of his body in the 2nd inning, you'll know that Grover is the smart one. Considered the Nats also, as always it seems, but ultimately passed. The McDonald kid starting for the Dodgers tonight was an interesting thought as a favorite over suck-ass Jon Garland, but we're going to stick with these two. Good luck everybody.
Twins +140, 1 unit to win 1.40 units
This is not a game I'd be looking forward to watching. Both pitchers are equally awful so getting +140 on either side looks like value to us, and the 66% of wagerliners on the White Sox makes it look even better. Like the old saying goes, "When betting on a shit-eating contest, you might as well go with the underdog." That's a saying, right?
Mariners +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units
After last year's well-known disappointment, the Mariners will likely continue to be underrated for a while, which is good for those of us paying attention. The Griffey signing might not make much difference, but defensive improvements like Gutierrez and Chavez in the outfield are really going to help this team. The CHONE projections on Oakland's starter, Brett Anderson, aren't terrible, but he's not as good as Rowland-Smith (at least, not yet). Another good number to take a stab at.
That's it for today. I tried to talk Grover into Mike Hampton, if only for the humor value, but he wouldn't go for it. When his arm falls completely off of his body in the 2nd inning, you'll know that Grover is the smart one. Considered the Nats also, as always it seems, but ultimately passed. The McDonald kid starting for the Dodgers tonight was an interesting thought as a favorite over suck-ass Jon Garland, but we're going to stick with these two. Good luck everybody.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Thursday Afternoon
I wanted to take a good look at some head-to-head Masters matchups, but the Passover festivities got in the way. So we only have baseball plays for your enjoyment this fine Thursday afternoon. Hambone kindly sent me the lines before he left his desk for the morning, but I don't have the sites that he got them from. I'll guess it's Matchbook, and hopefully he'll be back by lunch to add that.
Seattle Mariners +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units.
Washburn's not an AAO favorite, but we like the Mariners to finish the year about even with the Twins this year- you'll remember that we played the Mariners Over and the Twins Under- and PECOTA suggests that the Mariners clearly have the better of the Washburn-Perkins matchup today. All that and +115 is good enough for us.
Tampa Bay Rays +144, 1 unit to win 144 units.
I'll admit I'm surprised you can get this kind of value on the Rays this year. Is the conventional wisdom that last year was some sort of fluke? It was not. This is an ideal spot to play them, with the Rays' most underrated starter, Matt Garza, going against the Sox' most overrated starter, Dice-K. Dice-K kept burning us last year, seemingly walking two guys and then working his way out of the jam every single inning. He can't keep it up forever, can he? Can he? Please tell me he can't.
Seattle Mariners +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units.
Washburn's not an AAO favorite, but we like the Mariners to finish the year about even with the Twins this year- you'll remember that we played the Mariners Over and the Twins Under- and PECOTA suggests that the Mariners clearly have the better of the Washburn-Perkins matchup today. All that and +115 is good enough for us.
Tampa Bay Rays +144, 1 unit to win 144 units.
I'll admit I'm surprised you can get this kind of value on the Rays this year. Is the conventional wisdom that last year was some sort of fluke? It was not. This is an ideal spot to play them, with the Rays' most underrated starter, Matt Garza, going against the Sox' most overrated starter, Dice-K. Dice-K kept burning us last year, seemingly walking two guys and then working his way out of the jam every single inning. He can't keep it up forever, can he? Can he? Please tell me he can't.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Happy Pesach!
Getting these in early to allow all the Jews out there to get their wagers in before the Seders begin. Remember: informed wagering is a mitzvah.
Atlanta Braves +100 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1 unit.
The Braves have the better starter by far (Vasquez over Blanton). I don't see much of a difference on the offensive end. Too much love for the defending champions here.
Pittsburgh Pirates +150 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.5 units.
I've been hearing a lot of positive predictions on the Cardinals over the last week for some reason. I don't buy it for a second. This team looks like one that will finish under .500, so a +150 line against them is value. Unless they're facing the top end of the Nats' rotation, apparently.
Oakland A's -110 (multiple sites), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I hate betting against the local boy- Adenhart's from Silver Spring in beautiful Montgomery County, MD- and I also worry about the A's struggling against a guy they haven't seen much of. But I don't see anything in his profile that suggests to me that he's anything special. His walk rate was way too high in the minors, and PECOTA is not a fan, to say the least. Eveland's not the second coming of Johan Santana, but there's some value here.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
So Far, Not So Good
Afternoon games not looking good (Royals were leading until late, which we should probably get used to saying). This is way too many games for the 3rd day of the season, but I don't have time to try and weed out a couple. For tonight, risking 1 unit on each:
Astros +109
Power and speed in the Houston lineup, they just can't put it together consistently. Line movement makes me think they can tonight.
Mariners -101
And the award for most unlikely to record a strikeout tonight goes to.....Nick Blackburn.
Rockies +143
The difference between Ubaldo and Haren is not as much as the 70%+ of bettors on the D-Backs might think.
A's +102
I don't know who this Cahill person is that's starting for Oakland tonight, so this must be the correct play. Everybody in the world is on the Angels, but the line keeps falling? Very fishy.
Actually, I did pass on one lean, the Nationals, so there's your guaranteed* winner. Probably not going to look at the NBA/NHL again until the playoffs start. Good luck everybody.
*guarantee will not be honored
Astros +109
Power and speed in the Houston lineup, they just can't put it together consistently. Line movement makes me think they can tonight.
Mariners -101
And the award for most unlikely to record a strikeout tonight goes to.....Nick Blackburn.
Rockies +143
The difference between Ubaldo and Haren is not as much as the 70%+ of bettors on the D-Backs might think.
A's +102
I don't know who this Cahill person is that's starting for Oakland tonight, so this must be the correct play. Everybody in the world is on the Angels, but the line keeps falling? Very fishy.
Actually, I did pass on one lean, the Nationals, so there's your guaranteed* winner. Probably not going to look at the NBA/NHL again until the playoffs start. Good luck everybody.
*guarantee will not be honored
So Far, So Good
A winning day yesterday, so we should probably quit now. Nope, we're not that smart. Two more for Tuesday afternoon, each risking 1 unit:
Royals +119
Like Meche over Buehrle here. Lineups pretty even going into this one, but the public likes the White Sox. Line moved the opposite way.
Rays +143
Pretty much a coin-flip here, except that we're getting +143 on one side. Nice.
Not much time to go into more detail today. Back later with any games for tonights.
Royals +119
Like Meche over Buehrle here. Lineups pretty even going into this one, but the public likes the White Sox. Line moved the opposite way.
Rays +143
Pretty much a coin-flip here, except that we're getting +143 on one side. Nice.
Not much time to go into more detail today. Back later with any games for tonights.
Monday, April 6, 2009
It Begins - Monday Afternoon Baseball
Finally. Two for the 4 PM Eastern hour, lines from Matchbook, risking 1 unit on each:
Nationals +154
Pirates +172
Very busy today, but if I can find some time later, I might come back and add in some explanation for those. Good luck everybody.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Passing Saturday
Lean to Michigan State and UNC Under, but not going to officially pick either of those. Good luck to everybody who's getting involved.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Baseball Win Total Bets
It's about damn time, right?
OK, for some reason they won't let me take a sick day to do these, so the conversation will be relatively brief. Methodology- I looked at PECOTA first to come up with some possibilities, and then looked at the CHONE and Diamond Mind numbers for a second and third opinion. I believe every pick here is one that all three projection systems agree on. By the way, the Diamond Mind projections incorporate the PECOTA and CHONE numbers and run them with several others, including CAIRO and Hardball Times. If you want to look for yourself at projections but are pressed for time and don't have a particular love for one system (like I do with PECOTA), that is a great place to look.
One other thing- I can't say if the juice numbers are accurate because my work firewall blocks gambling sites. These numbers are from a few days ago, which is the last time I had a chance to look at home. I've asked Hambone to check this afternoon and update the numbers if necessary. Obviously if the juice is significantly different then what I post here, you shouldn't play it. Use your best judgement.
Atlanta Braves Over 83.5 -115 (BetUS), 3.45 Units to win 3 units.
Amazingly consistent projections from the three systems. CHONE says 86, Diamond Mind 86.7, and PECOTA 87. I assume it's the Braves' record last year that's holding the lines back, because it's not like this is a franchise with a tradition of losing. Ownership has shown a willingness to make a move and spend some dough if they've got a shot at the playoffs, which I suspect they do. The pitching staff is approaching AARP eligibility, but they've got young talent like Campillo and Jurrjens to back it up if the injury bug or Alzheimer's strikes guys like Lowe, Glavine and Vasquez.
Baltimore Orioles Over 73.5 +110 (Greek), 2 units to win 2.2 units.
I'm somewhat iffy on this one. All three projection services are barely above this number. I only like it because of the +110 number I saw for it last time I checked the Greek. A positive number plus all three services projecting 74-75 wins is value, plain and simple. But if you can't get the +110 any more, stay away from this one. The fan base is gonna be screaming for a Wieters callup by the end of the month, which certainly will help matters.
Chicago White Sox Under 78.5 -120 (WSEX), 2.4 units to win 2 units.
Wow, these guys are old. Old old old. My grandfather used to sit me on his lap and tell me stories about watching Jose Contreras pitch to the Babe. Jim Thome wears an onion on his belt. He can't get the white ones, on account of the war, so he has to wear the big yellow ones. Last week Jermaine Dye told at me and my friends to get the hell off his lawn. You get the picture. All three projections are under this number. PECOTA is the highest, at 76.
Florida Marlins Under 76.5 -130 (WSEX), 3.9 units to win 3 units.
I don't have a lot to add here. Florida has a lot of young, highly-touted prospects like Maybin and Volstead. But the team's not quite ready for prime time yet. The projections have them between 71 and 72.5. Of course, it's possible that their legendary raucous home crowds will lift them to a couple extra wins, so be wary of that.
Seattle Mariners Over 72.5 -125 (Greek), 3.75 units to win 3 units.
See how we're switching it up on them? The books go high on the Mariners in 2008, so we go low! And then when they go low, we go high! We're coming at them like a spider monkey. They'll never know what hit 'em.
In case you prefer a little more analysis before you put your hard-earned money down, PECOTA's got them at 77, CHONE at 78, and Diamond Mind at 77.8. Just imagine how this team would look with Adam Jones in the outfield, George Sherrill in the bullpen, and Chris Tillman waiting in the wings to spearhead the rotation.
I'm sorry, Seattle. That was mean. Bill Bavasi is gone. He won't ever haunt your nightmares again. I promise.
Toronto Blue Jays Under 79.5 -140 (WSEX), 2.8 units to win 2 units.
In keeping with Canadian tradition, this discussion will be devoid of anything interesting or colorful. PECOTA says 76, CHONE says 75, Diamond Mind says 75.6. the win total was 80.5 elsewhere, which looks really good, but the line was -190 or thereabouts, which is just too damn expensive.
And now we get to the two big ones. They're both unders. I'm quite the Negative Nancy this year ...
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Under 89.5 -130 (BetUS), 5.2 units to win 4 units.
CHONE and Diamond Mind have them in the 85 range. If PECOTA was the same this would be a 2 unit play. But PECOTA says 81. And PECOTA is my sun and my moon. I follow Nate Silver around with a copy of Excel and try to get him to sign it. This line might have moved with the news about Lackey getting increasingly negative, so make sure you're still getting decent value here before putting your entire tax refund on it like I did.
Minnesota Twins Under 83.5 -105 (BetUS), 5.25 units to win 5 units.
This one hurts, because the Minnesota Twins are everyone's Little Team That Could. The numbers guys usually love them, because their front office is well-run and incredibly efficient with their budget. And how can you root against a team that asked The Hold Steady to record a version of Take Me Out to the Ball Game for them? Unfortunately, the numbers just don't add up this year. CHONE and Diamond Mind say 79. PECOTA is even less generous, pegging the Twins for 76 wins. And making matters worse, Twins fans are gonna have to watch Matt Wieters replace Joe Mauer as the best young catcher in the history of anything ever. Looks like a sad summer in Minneapolis, which sucks because I'm guessing their winters aren't much fun either.
Finally, I'm not making any of these official plays, but as a public service to you, here are the other teams on which all three projections are on the same side as the win total lines by more than one game. For the most part, I didn't play them because there wasn't enough difference between the projections and the lines or because the juice was too high or a combination thereof. All of them are decent plays, and if I'm feeling saucy or if I find any number better than what I found last time I looked, I will play them and post them here later this weekend:
Houston Astros Under 74.5, Tampa Bay Rays Over 87.5, Washington Nationals Over 71.5.
OK, for some reason they won't let me take a sick day to do these, so the conversation will be relatively brief. Methodology- I looked at PECOTA first to come up with some possibilities, and then looked at the CHONE and Diamond Mind numbers for a second and third opinion. I believe every pick here is one that all three projection systems agree on. By the way, the Diamond Mind projections incorporate the PECOTA and CHONE numbers and run them with several others, including CAIRO and Hardball Times. If you want to look for yourself at projections but are pressed for time and don't have a particular love for one system (like I do with PECOTA), that is a great place to look.
One other thing- I can't say if the juice numbers are accurate because my work firewall blocks gambling sites. These numbers are from a few days ago, which is the last time I had a chance to look at home. I've asked Hambone to check this afternoon and update the numbers if necessary. Obviously if the juice is significantly different then what I post here, you shouldn't play it. Use your best judgement.
Atlanta Braves Over 83.5 -115 (BetUS), 3.45 Units to win 3 units.
Amazingly consistent projections from the three systems. CHONE says 86, Diamond Mind 86.7, and PECOTA 87. I assume it's the Braves' record last year that's holding the lines back, because it's not like this is a franchise with a tradition of losing. Ownership has shown a willingness to make a move and spend some dough if they've got a shot at the playoffs, which I suspect they do. The pitching staff is approaching AARP eligibility, but they've got young talent like Campillo and Jurrjens to back it up if the injury bug or Alzheimer's strikes guys like Lowe, Glavine and Vasquez.
Baltimore Orioles Over 73.5 +110 (Greek), 2 units to win 2.2 units.
I'm somewhat iffy on this one. All three projection services are barely above this number. I only like it because of the +110 number I saw for it last time I checked the Greek. A positive number plus all three services projecting 74-75 wins is value, plain and simple. But if you can't get the +110 any more, stay away from this one. The fan base is gonna be screaming for a Wieters callup by the end of the month, which certainly will help matters.
Chicago White Sox Under 78.5 -120 (WSEX), 2.4 units to win 2 units.
Wow, these guys are old. Old old old. My grandfather used to sit me on his lap and tell me stories about watching Jose Contreras pitch to the Babe. Jim Thome wears an onion on his belt. He can't get the white ones, on account of the war, so he has to wear the big yellow ones. Last week Jermaine Dye told at me and my friends to get the hell off his lawn. You get the picture. All three projections are under this number. PECOTA is the highest, at 76.
Florida Marlins Under 76.5 -130 (WSEX), 3.9 units to win 3 units.
I don't have a lot to add here. Florida has a lot of young, highly-touted prospects like Maybin and Volstead. But the team's not quite ready for prime time yet. The projections have them between 71 and 72.5. Of course, it's possible that their legendary raucous home crowds will lift them to a couple extra wins, so be wary of that.
Seattle Mariners Over 72.5 -125 (Greek), 3.75 units to win 3 units.
See how we're switching it up on them? The books go high on the Mariners in 2008, so we go low! And then when they go low, we go high! We're coming at them like a spider monkey. They'll never know what hit 'em.
In case you prefer a little more analysis before you put your hard-earned money down, PECOTA's got them at 77, CHONE at 78, and Diamond Mind at 77.8. Just imagine how this team would look with Adam Jones in the outfield, George Sherrill in the bullpen, and Chris Tillman waiting in the wings to spearhead the rotation.
I'm sorry, Seattle. That was mean. Bill Bavasi is gone. He won't ever haunt your nightmares again. I promise.
Toronto Blue Jays Under 79.5 -140 (WSEX), 2.8 units to win 2 units.
In keeping with Canadian tradition, this discussion will be devoid of anything interesting or colorful. PECOTA says 76, CHONE says 75, Diamond Mind says 75.6. the win total was 80.5 elsewhere, which looks really good, but the line was -190 or thereabouts, which is just too damn expensive.
And now we get to the two big ones. They're both unders. I'm quite the Negative Nancy this year ...
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Under 89.5 -130 (BetUS), 5.2 units to win 4 units.
CHONE and Diamond Mind have them in the 85 range. If PECOTA was the same this would be a 2 unit play. But PECOTA says 81. And PECOTA is my sun and my moon. I follow Nate Silver around with a copy of Excel and try to get him to sign it. This line might have moved with the news about Lackey getting increasingly negative, so make sure you're still getting decent value here before putting your entire tax refund on it like I did.
Minnesota Twins Under 83.5 -105 (BetUS), 5.25 units to win 5 units.
This one hurts, because the Minnesota Twins are everyone's Little Team That Could. The numbers guys usually love them, because their front office is well-run and incredibly efficient with their budget. And how can you root against a team that asked The Hold Steady to record a version of Take Me Out to the Ball Game for them? Unfortunately, the numbers just don't add up this year. CHONE and Diamond Mind say 79. PECOTA is even less generous, pegging the Twins for 76 wins. And making matters worse, Twins fans are gonna have to watch Matt Wieters replace Joe Mauer as the best young catcher in the history of anything ever. Looks like a sad summer in Minneapolis, which sucks because I'm guessing their winters aren't much fun either.
Finally, I'm not making any of these official plays, but as a public service to you, here are the other teams on which all three projections are on the same side as the win total lines by more than one game. For the most part, I didn't play them because there wasn't enough difference between the projections and the lines or because the juice was too high or a combination thereof. All of them are decent plays, and if I'm feeling saucy or if I find any number better than what I found last time I looked, I will play them and post them here later this weekend:
Houston Astros Under 74.5, Tampa Bay Rays Over 87.5, Washington Nationals Over 71.5.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Wednesday Night Basketball
A couple of guesses for tonight:
College Basketball
UTEP -9 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
This is just too goofy to pass up. Game #2 in the CBI best-2-out-of-3 finals series. Oregon State won by 6 Monday night at home, and now UTEP is favored to win by nearly double-digits in El Paso? Hilarious.
NBA
Bucks +6.5 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units
The books seem to think the Redd-less Bucks can hang close with the Lakers tonight, but the people aren't buying it. Maybe it's a revenge thing for losing Kareem.
Good luck everybody.
College Basketball
UTEP -9 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
This is just too goofy to pass up. Game #2 in the CBI best-2-out-of-3 finals series. Oregon State won by 6 Monday night at home, and now UTEP is favored to win by nearly double-digits in El Paso? Hilarious.
NBA
Bucks +6.5 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units
The books seem to think the Redd-less Bucks can hang close with the Lakers tonight, but the people aren't buying it. Maybe it's a revenge thing for losing Kareem.
Good luck everybody.
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