Friday Baseball, or Why Do People Still Think Derek Jeter Is More Valuable than A-Rod

Getting the baseball out of the way early to clear space for the Hambone NBA Playoff Spectacular. I even taught him to do basic addition and division yesterday so he could really fine-tune his picks. Today's baseball plays, all from Matchbook:

Cleveland Indians +194, .5 units to win .97 units.

This line makes slightly more sense than yesterday's joke of a line, because at least the Indians aren't starting last year's Cy Young winner today. But this still has to be inflated by some irrational belief that the new stadium is gonna spur the Yankees to new heights. I actually like Joba a lot and think he's heading for great things (thus the .5 unit play). But PECOTA, which loves the Yankees to the tune of expecting 99 wins, projects this team to be only the 5th best offense in the AL ... and that's with A-Rod in the mix. He's not playing today, is he? No? Well without him, this is a mediocre offense, even when the Teixiera is raking. Which he's not. I don't care if Derek Jeter cured cancer, wrote the Great American Novel, and impregnated your little sister just by looking in her general direction. Without A-Rod, they're nothing special.


Cincinnati Reds +140, 1 unit to win 1.4 units.

I think we're gonna be fading the Astros against the rest of the NL Central a lot these first two months. Two great pitchers on the hill today. There's no way that Oswalt is so much better than Cueto that it justifies this line, especially when you look at that Astros lineup trying to give him run support.


Detroit Tigers +116, 1 unit to win 1.16 units.

PECOTA says Verlander bounces back and has a decent year this year, and puts up numbers close enough to those of King Felix to create value here, with the Tigers clearly being the better offensive team. Do I buy it? Not sure. But I learned a long time ago that the best way to make money in this game is to avoid overthinking and instead worship at the altar of PECOTA.

I'm Confused

WSEX has the following series odds listed for the first round:

BB 95 4/19 (F) CHARLOTTE VS DENVER (BEST OF SEVEN GAMES) (10:35 pm ET)
Outcome Money Line
CHARLOTTE +200
DENVER -250

I liked Charlotte's matchup advantages in this series at first glance, but then I realized that Charlotte wasn't actually in the playoffs, so I'd have to lean Denver. When did they start doing interconference playoff brackets?

Another thought: Did the Bulls lose that home game vs. Toronto last night on purpose? If they had won, they would be the 6 seed and face Orlando in the first round. But, by losing, they fell to #7 and face the apparently KG-less Celtics. I think Garnett lived in Chicago at some point in high school, so maybe some old friends leaked the injury story to the Bulls, who then took a dive against the Raptors? Probably not, but everybody loves a good conspiracy theory.

And, NO, I am not going to say anything to jinx what's going on in Yankee Stadium right now. Not going to do it.

Bronx Cheers

Today's afternoon play:

Cleveland Indians +202 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2.02 units.

That number is just absurd. Sure, Cliff Lee has struggled so far this year. Sure, the Yankees are the better team. Sure, Sabathia was great last time out. But consider the other side of this equation. A-Rod is still out, and this team is, frankly, pretty bad offensively without him. The only difference between your preception of Cliff Lee and of CC Sabathia is that Lee opened this season with two ugly starts, whereas Sabathia only had one. Lee still has the better K/BB ratio on the year. I just don't see this is a 2/1 type game. +150, maybe, but this number makes absolutely no sense. Indeed, the Indians were +180 as recently as 8 AM.

Usually we stay away from numbers that are this out of whack, because of concern that something we don't know about is going on with the game. But here the reason for the line move seems obvious- legions of Yankee backers who think "dere's no friggin' way Da Yanks are gonna lose dere first game at da new joint!" We love fading people like that.

Wakefield Making Us Look Silly

No-hitter through 7 innings so far. Of course. Three more baseball picks for Wednesday night:

Padres +174, 1 unit to win 1.74 units

Grover says we take +174 with anybody against Oliver Perez. Easy decision.

Reds +128, 1 unit to win 1.28 units

Public loves Looper. We like Owings.

Giants +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units

Kershaw getting a lot of press lately, but he's not better than Cain. Really good number for the dog here.

Good luck everybody.

Tax Day Hockey Playoff Pick & Afternoon Baseball

Trying to get my taxes done, so let me spit these out quickly:

NHL

Flyers +150, 0.5 units to win 0.75 units

I actually think Philadelphia is the slightly better team in this matchup - at worst, they're even. However, Philly doesn't have a Sidney Crosby, so we're the beneficiaries of this juicy line in Game 1. Nice.

MLB

A's +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Public loves the Sox as usual, but the line has gone the other way slightly. Wakefield isn't fooling anybody with the knuckleball anymore - although some of the sample sizes (career at-bats) are small, it's clear that the hitters in Oakland's lineup aren't baffled by the knuckler. A pretty close matchup, we'll take the home dog.

A few more baseball picks emerging for tonight, but I'll have to come back later. The IRS awaits....

NHL Playoff Futures

Hockey playoffs get started Wednesday night. Futures picks for both the Stanley Cup and just the first round:

Chicago Blackhawks to win the Stanley Cup +1600 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 16 units

Lazily and shamelessly, we sat back and let our friend over at Numbers Don't Lie put the math together on this one. I'm not the math whiz that he is, but if the Hawks are 9-1 to win the Cup and Matchbook is paying 16-1, that's incredible value right there and we're on board. Excellent find by the guy who likes numbers.

St. Louis to advance to the second round +196 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 3.92 units

Maybe Vancouver is a little better (maybe), but I don't think they're 2-1 better over a series which is what this line would suggest. Blues have been better on the power play and killing penalties, and are pretty much equal in goal (Canucks' Luongo's save percentage is .919, Blues' Mason's is .916). I'm not counting on Paul Kariya coming back 100% for this series, but anything he can add would just be gravy on top.

Rangers to advance to the second round +190 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.9 units

Does defense win championships? This series will be a good test of that theory, because the Rangers are fantastic defensively - the best penalty killing team in the league and much better in goal than Washington - but no match for the Capitals offensively. This line is +160 or +170 at some books, so I was happy to find the +190 at good ol' WSEX.

Considered Philadelphia to win their first series as well, but I decided to just play the individual games in their series with Pittsburgh. In my completely uneducated hockey opinion, there's virtually no difference between those two teams (except that Philly is the better power play squad), but the recreational bettor has heard about Sidney Crosby a million times on Sportscenter and the public should be overvaluing the Penguins as a result.

Tuesday Night Bases, Quickly

Nothing that has us cutting backflips or anything, but 4 for tonight that we like enough to pick. Lines from Matchbook, all risking 1 unit:

Mariners +102

Carlos Silva is terrible, that's a given. But, Loux projects to be even worse. With the one of the most overrated teams (Angels) facing one of the most underrated, we'll go with the home dog.

Reds +126

A total coin-flip. We'll go with the dog.

Diamondbacks +123

Carpenter getting a lot of love after his great start in his last game. Scherzer is no slouch himself, but is not as widely known. Another home dog for the good guys.

A's +130

The compulsory Dice-K fade. Business as usual.

Hopefully back tonight with some thoughts on the first round of the hockey playoffs.

Monday Night Baseball

One more:

Diamondbacks +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Grover is much higher on the D-Backs this year than I am (I'm still dubious of the offense), but with this game looking like a coin-flip, we'll take the home team as the slgith dog.

NHL Playoff lines are coming out. Considering series bets on the Rangers and Blues, possibly Hurricanes or Flyers. If anybody out there has actually watched a hockey game before (I haven't) and has thoughts, we're happy to listen. Good luck everybody.

Opening Day, Part Deux

Afternoon picks before I leave for Nats Park.

Colorado Rockies +121 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.21 units.

We think big things are in store for Ubaldo Jiminez this year. The Cubs' strong start and win on national TV last night creates value here even though the Rockies very clearly have the better of the pitching matchup. This one's a no-brainer.*

* In this context, no-brainer means there's value, not that the pick is a guaranteed winner. Of course, if you didn't know that already, you are probably better served at the covers.com forums.

Washington Nationals +110 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.1 units.

I'm bringing my giant flash to the stadium, like the one the guy in the BW-3 commerical uses to send the basketball game into overtime at the request of the patrons. I'll get a win today for us, and for the Nats, even if it means I'm banned for life from MLB ballparks.

Actually, I think we're gonna be fading the Phillies a lot this year. Their World Series win and the talent at the front of their order has created the mistaken impression that they are now among the game's elite. They are not. PECOTA forecasts 87 wins and a third-place finish in the East. But as long as people keep thinking that the Phillies are a 95-win team, we'll keep fading them. Even when they're playing the Nats. Ugh.

Sunday Baseball

It's not a pretty card today. We're playing three of the league's bottomfeeders. It is not a card for the weak of heart or stomach.

Florida Marlins +130 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.3 units.

Mets are getting most of the action with Santana on the hill, but the line is moving the other way. The Marlins starter, Josh Johnson, is no slouch either. With the Marlins playing well and at home with a quality starter, this number looks like value.


Washington Nationals +175 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.75 units.

The Nats' losing streak creates the value here. Squares love to bet streaks. This is not a team playing well, and they have the lesser of the two starters here by a bit with Olsen going up against Jurrjens, but this number is too high to pass up for a team that's not as bad as their record suggests. Not good, but not as bad as the record suggests.


Houston Astros +122 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.2 units.

I am not an Astros fan this year, but we like them today with Wandy on the hill against a not particularly good Lohse.