Note To Self

If you like a pick (like Wisconsin-Green Bay) enough to post it at 7:49 AM without waiting to see how the betting and line movement go the rest of the day, play it for at least 2 units, asshole.

*Bonus Late Night Tennis Pick*

I'm probably not going to really take a serious look at tennis again until this summer after basketball season is over (if betting on tennis is ever serious), but this one really jumped out at me tonight in the Qatar Open for Saturday morning:

Andy Roddick +300 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 3 units

Andy Murray has played really well in recent months, but he's not this much better than Roddick. Just a value play, and it's after midnight, and maybe I've had a beer or two, or eleven.

Friday Night Hoops

Well, that Wisconsin-Green Bay line hasn't quite gotten down to a pick as predicted this morning, but it's down to +1 which is getting pretty close. The rest for Friday:

College Basketball

Rider +11.5 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

Not much of a consensus at Wagerline on this one (56% Siena), but some of the sportsbooks like Sportsbook and Carib are claiming 80% or more on Siena if you believe their numbers. I guess they could be lying to encourage against-the-public people like us to bet on Rider, but then why drop the line from Siena -12 to -11.5 which would seem to encourage bets on Siena? Going with the line move here.

NBA

Grizzlies +6 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

Hawks +5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Thunder +6.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Wizards +5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit

Kings +4 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Same ol' thing. Going against the public and with the line move. If it ain't broke don't fix it. Good luck everybody. It's going to be quite a chore to get ready for tomorrow.

Early Bird Special

This Friday night college basketball line has nowhere to go but down:

Wisconsin-Green Bay +2.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

The better team (Pomeroy agrees with me!) getting points, and in the early betting, we have the public on Milwaukee at a 70% clip, and the reverse line movement that we love to see in those situations. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this line closes somewhere around a Pick, so going ahead and getting it down now. Back later this afternoon with the rest, and a huge card for tomorrow to start working on.

What The Hell

One more, tipping off at 10 PM Eastern:

Long Beach State +7.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit

Subjectively, I liked Long Beach State from the first time I saw the line. Throw in the reverse line move, and I'm sold. Even my new friend Pomeroy thinks they'll just barely cover this one. Good night everybody.

Sorry About the Quickie Earlier

If I had a nickel for every time I've had to say that to a woman.....but anyway, another set of picks, this time without the panic (why the hell were the Southern Conference games starting at 6 PM tonight?):

College Basketball

St. Louis +15 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Line opened at +15, and with 65% of wagerline on Xavier, the line is still +15, which is nice. That's not an enormous consensus, but close enough for this one.

San Jose State +3 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit

Another team I thought would be better than expected this season when I looked at them a couple of months ago, so happy to back them here where the consensus on their opponent is huge (biggest on the board tonight).

NBA

Knicks +7.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

As usual, we don't want to over-think the NBA picks, just going with the line movement here.

College Football

Oklahoma moneyline +181, 1 unit to win 1.81 units

I don't know that we can add much to all the discussion already taking place about this game. We went back and forth with each other all day about whether to take the points or not, but at the end of the day, it's the last game of the year, and we're doing it like this. If that's stupid, then bash away. We don't have feelings anyway so we won't be hurt.

Looking at a couple of late basketball games (e.g. Long Beach State), so maybe back later if I have time to look at it again this evening. Good luck everybody.

It's 5 Minutes to 6 Already?

Apologies for the late notice on the Citadel pick and for the lack of explanations, but really scrambling today. In college hoops, all to win 1 unit:

Citadel +2.5 -110 (WSEX)

Elon +7.5 -105

Florida International +6.5 -109

Wright State +10 -101

Back with anything that starts after 7 PM in a little while.

Rant: The Most Awesomest Column Ever

In case anyone out there is wondering who the media and the squares love in the big game tonight, I give you this steaming pile of dogshit from Dennis Dodd that is currently the front page feature on the CBS Sportsline front page.

Look, Tebow's a quality quarterback. I won't get into the Jesus stuff here that Dodd seems to think somehow makes him a "greater" quarterback. Nor will I address the Gretzky/Ruth/Jordan mentions, mostly because they speak for themselves. Instead, I'll make a couple quick points. Gator fans, people betting the Gators tonight, and others are free to make counterpoints in the comments.

1. Tim Tebow was not the starting quarterback for Florida in the 2007 National Championship game. Tebow threw one pass (a one yarder for TD) and ran ten times for 39 yards (including another 1 yard TD). So, one short pass, and ten runs for a 3.9 yards per carry average. He took eleven snaps, most of them from the goal line. He was nothing more than a added wrinkle in that attack, used primarily in short yardage situations. Really, he was little more than the QB equivalent of William "Refrigerator" Perry. Giving him credit for "leading" Florida to a national title in 2006-07 makes about as much sense as giving me credit for leading the Tar Heels to the 2005 national title through my boisterous cheering efforts.

2. Tebow took the reins from Chris Leak last season. The Gators, led by Tebow went 9-4, ending the season with a loss in the Capitol One Bowl to 8-4 Michigan. In Tebow's first year as starter, the Gators went 9-4 and lost a secondary bowl game named for a credit card company to a team that was in the middle of collapsing into college football's second-favorite punchline. He won the Heisman based on a brilliant marketing ploy about his combined TDs. From an efficiency standpoint as well as a victory standpoint, he did not deserve that trophy. For the record, I kind of think he deserved it this year, and didn't get it because he had won it the year before. Which makes it even more egregious in my book, since it resulted in the wrong person winning the Heisman two years in a row.

Unless your definition of "great" is based on your ability to take a picture next to a woman with huge knockers, Tebow is not "the greatest." It's not even debatable. Its debatability is not even debatable.

So Dodd, Switzer, and the rest of the idiot talking heads- keep on talking. Florida might win the championship tonight, but I am pretty confident that the wagering value here is gonna be on the other sideline.

Even a Blind Squirrel...

Ended up 7-0 last night, but since there are only 4 plays tonight, there's no opportunity to equal that result....or to lose it all back tonight. The picks for Wednesday night basketball:

NBA

Grizzlies +4 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Over 70% support for the Nets at wagerline all day, even though Devin Harris isn't playing tonight, which actually is a little frightening. A little step back in the line and here we are supporting another Finals contender.

College Basketball

Providence +3.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Over 70% at wagerline for Cincinnati, although here the line moved a half-point toward the Bearcats, so that's a little bit disturbing. Subjectively, I don't see a whole lot of talent difference between these two teams, so we'll take the points and go against the public.

Northwestern +7.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

This one was a slam dunk from the beginning, even after the second-half choke job Northwestern pulled on us last week. Around 70% on Wisconsin all day, but the line went the other way. And with all the talk about Ken Pomeroy yesterday, it should be noted that his model actually has Northwestern ranked higher than Wisconsin, and his prediction for this game is a low-scoring affair that Wisconsin squeaks out by 2 points in the end. That wouldn't surprise me at all. Used the WSEX line because when I went to Matchbook just now there was nothing available at +7.5, only +8 -119.

College of Charleston +26 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

You see, the UNC players are going to be really mad that they lost their last game to BC, so they are going to try REALLY REALLY EXTRA SUPER-DUPER HARD to make the ball go in the basket tonight. Hogwash.

Passes (i.e. sure winners) were William & Mary, James Madison (can't see how ODU is 10 points better, but not enough there to justify it), NC-Charlotte, Tulane, and Marshall.

Tuesday Night Buckets

OK, in addition to the Penn State pick that was posted earlier, here are the rest:

NBA

Bobcats +9 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Thunder +2 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit

We only support championship contenders on this site, obviously. Betting and line movement (or lack thereof). Avert your eyes, these look ugly.

College Basketball

Northern Iowa +12.5 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units

It feels like I've been under-rating Creighton all year, so buyer beware on this one. Also, Grover and I have a fond Vegas memory involving Northern Iowa, so maybe I'm subconsciously biased toward them. I don't think I am, but that's pretty much what "subconscious" means.

Seton Hall +7 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit

Public likes Nova, line has either held firm or retreated half a point.

Arkansas +4.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units

The #7 team in the country only giving 4-5 points vs. an unranked team, and it's on ESPN2. Sweet. Like the Seton Hall game, the line isn't going with the betting percentages.

Siena +12 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Public big on Kansas (surprise!), but not too much movement in the lines. Just as I may have been under-rating Creighton, I think I've been over-rating Siena because I had high hopes for them this year (I don't mean that in a fan sort of way, just that I thought they would be more impressive this year than they have been when I looked at their personnel in the offseason). I've heard more about Ken Pomeroy today than ever before, and his model is predicting Kansas by 13, so at least I'll only miss the cover by 1 point if he's got this one pegged.

Moving on to tomorrow. First, I've got to figure out what the hell I'm going to do about this fantasy golf thing that Grover has gotten me into. It didn't sound as hard when I first heard about it (that's what she said!). Good luck everybody.

Getting One In Early

Getting this college basketball pick in now before the line falls any further:

Penn State +2 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units

I was probably going to play this one anyway, based on the betting and line movement, but a comment at The Money Line Journal prompted me to look around the internet a little and came up with this info from GoldandBlack.com:

Purdue may play its Big Ten road opener at Penn State Tuesday night without two of its most important players.

Coach Matt Painter said Monday that neither sophomore Robbie Hummel nor junior Chris Kramer have practiced since last week's overtime loss to Illinois.

Hummel has been plagued by a long-standing back problem that's progressively worsened; Kramer has a troublesome sprained foot.

"I always go into (games thinking that) if guys don't practice, they're not going to play unless they've told me otherwise," Painter said. "Neither of those guys have practiced.

"We'll practice tonight at Penn State. We'll see if they can do some things. But I would highly doubt it."

Like I said, even if they were definitely playing tonight, I likely would have played this one, but with this info, I'm definitely on board. I was surprised that this information is not even mentioned in the injury section of Covers' matchup for this game. It doesn't appear to be a secret or anything. Back later with the rest.