I'm going to have to write a post about all the ball-busting ways to lose a bet. Yesterday, the Astros fall in the bottom of the 9th, and then in the later game, Giants starter Kevin Correia gets injured in the very first inning and leaves the game. At least Gabbard made it to the 2nd inning on Patriots Day before getting hurt. Picking up the pieces today with 2 baseball picks and 2 in the NBA:
MLB
Braves (Smoltz) -117 (Matchbook), 117 to win 100
Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems like an awfully short number for Smoltz vs. Figueroa (who? exactly). Braves hitting much better than the Mets, and Smoltz has been brilliant lately.
Orioles (Guthrie) +120 (WSEX), 100 to win 120
I think the wrong team is favored in this one, even with the White Sox playing at home. Orioles hitters own Contreras. Guthrie pitches well on the road, and very well in day games. Take the plus number.
NBA
Spurs ML +150 (WSEX), 50 to win 75
Over the last five years, seven teams have gone into Game 4 at home down 0-3 in a first-round series. Six out of seven times, that team lost Game 4 and got swept. Although the Suns are probably better than the average first-round sweep victim, I'm taking the nice number and banking on the Spurs desire to end this series quickly to give themselves time to rest up for the Jazz in the second round.
Hornets +5.5 (Matchbook), 55 to win 50
I know the home team is consisently winning in this matchup, but the Mavs never seemed to put the game away in Game 3 until the very end. In a very even matchup, without the urgency of avoiding going down 0-3 that the Mavs had in the last game, I think the Hornets can at least stay within this number, if not win outright.
Showing posts with label free picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label free picks. Show all posts
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Saturday, In The Park
I think it was the 4th of July. You're lucky you only had to read that and not hear me sing it. On to the picks:
MLB
Astros +112 (WSEX), 100 to win 112
Oswalt as an underdog again. Astros against a righty. Not much to think about here.
Giants +107 (Matchbook), 100 to win 107
Very quietly, the Giants are putting together a nice stable of young arms - Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, and today, Correia. Happy to go against Belisle tonight.
NBA
Raptors -3 (WSEX), 55 to win 50
Toronto didn't put Calderon in the starting lineup after all. They're probably trying to pump up Ford's trade value. That's the only reason I can think of. Otherwise, they're just stupidly stubborn. Either way, going small-ball with Moon starting instead of Nesterovic put some life into the offense, and I think that carries over into this afternoon's game. Magic not yet elite enough or experienced enough to overcome the Raptors' homecourt advantage today.
MLB
Astros +112 (WSEX), 100 to win 112
Oswalt as an underdog again. Astros against a righty. Not much to think about here.
Giants +107 (Matchbook), 100 to win 107
Very quietly, the Giants are putting together a nice stable of young arms - Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, and today, Correia. Happy to go against Belisle tonight.
NBA
Raptors -3 (WSEX), 55 to win 50
Toronto didn't put Calderon in the starting lineup after all. They're probably trying to pump up Ford's trade value. That's the only reason I can think of. Otherwise, they're just stupidly stubborn. Either way, going small-ball with Moon starting instead of Nesterovic put some life into the offense, and I think that carries over into this afternoon's game. Magic not yet elite enough or experienced enough to overcome the Raptors' homecourt advantage today.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Thursday Night NBA Pick
Nice win for the Spurs the other night. Hoping to keep the good vibes rolling with tonight's basketball pick:
Raptors -4 (WSEX), 110 to win 100
"Finally!" That's probably what you heard in the Toronto area when Coach Sam Mitchell announced that there would be changes in the Raptors starting line-up for Game 3. Most significantly, it is believed that he will start Jose Calderon over T.J. Ford at point guard. This should've happened a long time ago, but the Raptors have a lot of money tied up in Ford, and traded Charlie Villanueva to get him (at least, everybody thought Charlie had a lot of potential at the time), so it's understandable that management wanted to give T.J. every opportunity to succeed. Calderon has clearly been the better player, and facing an 0-2 deficit already, the team appears ready to give him his starting spot. Mitchell may also find a place for 3-point shooting Jason Kapono in the starting line-up, either starting him at the 2 or 3 instead of Parker or Bargnani, or maybe going small-ball by moving Bosh to the 5 and using Nesterovic off the bench. With the travel and the 2-0 cushion, I just don't see the Magic busting out to a 20-point lead after the first quarter like they did in Game 1 (or 17-point lead in Game 2). Raptors will not fall way behind early like that in front of the home crowd.
Raptors -4 (WSEX), 110 to win 100
"Finally!" That's probably what you heard in the Toronto area when Coach Sam Mitchell announced that there would be changes in the Raptors starting line-up for Game 3. Most significantly, it is believed that he will start Jose Calderon over T.J. Ford at point guard. This should've happened a long time ago, but the Raptors have a lot of money tied up in Ford, and traded Charlie Villanueva to get him (at least, everybody thought Charlie had a lot of potential at the time), so it's understandable that management wanted to give T.J. every opportunity to succeed. Calderon has clearly been the better player, and facing an 0-2 deficit already, the team appears ready to give him his starting spot. Mitchell may also find a place for 3-point shooting Jason Kapono in the starting line-up, either starting him at the 2 or 3 instead of Parker or Bargnani, or maybe going small-ball by moving Bosh to the 5 and using Nesterovic off the bench. With the travel and the 2-0 cushion, I just don't see the Magic busting out to a 20-point lead after the first quarter like they did in Game 1 (or 17-point lead in Game 2). Raptors will not fall way behind early like that in front of the home crowd.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Wednesday Baseball Picks
Tough extra-innings loss on the Cardinals game yesterday, but the NBA pick cashed nicely. Here are the three baseball picks we could come to an agreement on today, all lines from Matchbook:
Angels (Garland) +164, 100 to win 164
Pitching matchup is pretty even, especially when you compare BABIP for this year so far (see BABIP post below). Slight hitting edge to the Red Sox, but not enough to justify a line this huge. We'll happily take the value play here.
Cubs (Hill) -101, 101 to win 100
With a lefty on the mound for both teams, the Cubs should have a big advantage offensively, in addition to the pitching advantage of Rich Hill over Morales. Cubs hitting .316 in their last 10 games vs. left-handed pitchers, while Rockies only .221. Cubs get ahead early in this one and hold on down the stretch.
Giants (Cain) +135, 100 to win 135
I read this article on a well-known sports betting information site, which purports to list the best and worst starting pitchers for the month of April. Cain is listed among the worst such pitchers. However, the only criteria used in compiling this list is the win-loss records for these pitchers' teams in their starts over the past 3 seasons, which is completely ludicrous. It would bad enough if the author (an "expert" handicapper) just used each pitcher's win-loss record over that span, but to use the teams' records makes it even worse. According to this article, if a pitcher didn't get much run support in several April games, or had a defense behind him that committed a lot of errors, or a bullpen which blew several of his leads, that pitcher would be a terrible pitcher in April. What if a pitcher was with a different team now? A bigger-hitting team with good defense and a reliable bullpen? Or, if the pitcher's team had improved significantly over the years (e.g. Zach Greinke, also one of the "worst" who actually has decent stats)? If the pitcher's stats were great under those circumstances, would he still be a lousy bet in April? It's ridiculous. Incidentally, Cain's ERA in April the past 3 seasons is 3.23 and his WHIP is 1.05, hardly the numbers put up by the worst pitchers in the league. You can pay money for the author's picks, by the way.
As for today's matchup, the Giants are hitting better than the Padres, have the better pitcher on the mound, and are getting the underdog price. Easy decision for us.
Angels (Garland) +164, 100 to win 164
Pitching matchup is pretty even, especially when you compare BABIP for this year so far (see BABIP post below). Slight hitting edge to the Red Sox, but not enough to justify a line this huge. We'll happily take the value play here.
Cubs (Hill) -101, 101 to win 100
With a lefty on the mound for both teams, the Cubs should have a big advantage offensively, in addition to the pitching advantage of Rich Hill over Morales. Cubs hitting .316 in their last 10 games vs. left-handed pitchers, while Rockies only .221. Cubs get ahead early in this one and hold on down the stretch.
Giants (Cain) +135, 100 to win 135
I read this article on a well-known sports betting information site, which purports to list the best and worst starting pitchers for the month of April. Cain is listed among the worst such pitchers. However, the only criteria used in compiling this list is the win-loss records for these pitchers' teams in their starts over the past 3 seasons, which is completely ludicrous. It would bad enough if the author (an "expert" handicapper) just used each pitcher's win-loss record over that span, but to use the teams' records makes it even worse. According to this article, if a pitcher didn't get much run support in several April games, or had a defense behind him that committed a lot of errors, or a bullpen which blew several of his leads, that pitcher would be a terrible pitcher in April. What if a pitcher was with a different team now? A bigger-hitting team with good defense and a reliable bullpen? Or, if the pitcher's team had improved significantly over the years (e.g. Zach Greinke, also one of the "worst" who actually has decent stats)? If the pitcher's stats were great under those circumstances, would he still be a lousy bet in April? It's ridiculous. Incidentally, Cain's ERA in April the past 3 seasons is 3.23 and his WHIP is 1.05, hardly the numbers put up by the worst pitchers in the league. You can pay money for the author's picks, by the way.
As for today's matchup, the Giants are hitting better than the Padres, have the better pitcher on the mound, and are getting the underdog price. Easy decision for us.
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