Didn't have time to do the usual 10 early picks this week, but honestly, I'm not sure there are ten picks I like that much this week anyway. One pick for tonight's game, and then two early picks for Saturday, lines from Matchbook:
Nevada -1 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
A three-point line movement from where this line opened at Fresno State -2, but the bets are coming in on Fresno State at a clip of over 70%. I've been saying for a couple of weeks that Fresno is a bad team, and we will find out for sure tonight. Fresno's running game is decent, but Nevada's run defense is #3 in the nation based on yardage allowed. On the other side, Nevada's #2 run offense (yardage) should feast on Fresno's horrendous run defense, which has allowed more than 200 yards per game on the ground.
Northwestern +11 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
First line I saw was Ohio State -11, and despite more than 60% betting on the Buckeyes, this line has either held steady, or actually dropped to Ohio State -10.5 at a lot of books. I know Bacher and Sutton are hurt, but the defense has done a decent job the past couple of weeks, and Ohio State isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut (no passing game at all). A close low-scoring game.
Louisiana Tech +7 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
I'm not sure what San Jose State has done to deserve all the public love, especially after squeaking out a win at Idaho in their last game. Line opened at San Jose State -8.5 and has steadily fallen all week, despite more bets coming in on them. Their defense is pretty good based on the numbers, but their offense is very poor. Louisiana Tech's only bad loss was at Army (although Army has really improved this year). Their only other losses were at Kansas, at Boise State, and at Hawaii, which are all very difficult places to play (to be fair, SJ St. won their game at Hawaii 20-17). San Jose State probably won't score enough points to threaten this spread.
Grover will be on at some point with the NFL picks, and there will definitely be some losing NBA/NHL picks for tonight up later so you guys know what NOT to play.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Thursday, November 6, 2008
7-0 Last Night!
That's how you would've done yesterday if you went the opposite of all the picks I posted Wednesday (the misleading headline is an homage to the dirty tricks political campaigns that just ended [thank God]). Here are 4 picks to fade for Thursday, lines from Matchbook:
NBA
76ers +5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Phoenix +146, 0.5 units to win 0.73 units
St. Louis +266, 0.5 units to win 1.33 units
After the beating last night, I'm just pretty much going against the wagerline folks today. My ass hurts......
NBA
76ers +5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Phoenix +146, 0.5 units to win 0.73 units
St. Louis +266, 0.5 units to win 1.33 units
After the beating last night, I'm just pretty much going against the wagerline folks today. My ass hurts......
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Wednesday Pucks & Buck(et)s
My apologies again for the late post, as I know that a lot of you need to know what we're playing so you can go the opposite way, but the real world gets in the way. All lines from Matchbook, and no explanations (and there was much rejoicing....):
NBA
Pacers +2.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +6.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Grizzlies +3 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Clippers +13 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
NHL
Tampa Bay +118, 0.5 units to win 0.59 units
St. Louis +164, 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
That looks like a lot of basketball games, but there were a few more that I had to weed out. Good luck everybody.
NBA
Pacers +2.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +6.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Grizzlies +3 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Clippers +13 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
NHL
Tampa Bay +118, 0.5 units to win 0.59 units
St. Louis +164, 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
That looks like a lot of basketball games, but there were a few more that I had to weed out. Good luck everybody.
Wednesday Night Football
That sounds weird. Probably working a little later than usual tonight, so I'm going to go ahead and put this in now:
Northern Illinois +9 +108 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Much better defense for NIU tonight. A little concerned about Ball State's passing game, but NIU is 8th in the nation in passing yards allowed, so hopefully they can stay within the number tonight. Can we win another weeknight game? Yes we can! (Yes we can! Yes we can!)
Hopefully, I'll get home in time to do NBA and NHL tonight, but no promises.
Northern Illinois +9 +108 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Much better defense for NIU tonight. A little concerned about Ball State's passing game, but NIU is 8th in the nation in passing yards allowed, so hopefully they can stay within the number tonight. Can we win another weeknight game? Yes we can! (Yes we can! Yes we can!)
Hopefully, I'll get home in time to do NBA and NHL tonight, but no promises.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Tuesday Hoops & Hockey
It's hard for me to get the picks up earlier than this on weekdays sometimes, all lines from Matchbook:
NBA:
Rockets -3 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Line moved against the World Champs? I smell a rat.
Mavericks +4 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
I think my opinion of the surrounding cast around Duncan and Parker has been stated to death. It's crap.
NHL
Ottawa -112, 0.56 units to win 0.5 units
Come on, the Senators on Election Night? That can't lose.
Nashville +136, 0.50 units to win 0.68 units
These teams look pretty similar to me, so taking the dog. What do you want me to say? I've seen two hockey games in my life.
Minnesota +170, 0.50 units to win 0.85 units
I've played the Wild twice already this season and they've lost both times, so I'm feeling very confident on this one.
Good luck everybody.
NBA:
Rockets -3 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Line moved against the World Champs? I smell a rat.
Mavericks +4 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
I think my opinion of the surrounding cast around Duncan and Parker has been stated to death. It's crap.
NHL
Ottawa -112, 0.56 units to win 0.5 units
Come on, the Senators on Election Night? That can't lose.
Nashville +136, 0.50 units to win 0.68 units
These teams look pretty similar to me, so taking the dog. What do you want me to say? I've seen two hockey games in my life.
Minnesota +170, 0.50 units to win 0.85 units
I've played the Wild twice already this season and they've lost both times, so I'm feeling very confident on this one.
Good luck everybody.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Monday Night, But No Football
Let's try this basketball and hockey thing again. Do over!
NBA
Bobcats +3.5 -104 (Matchbook), 1.04 units to win 1 unit
I was considering the Bobcats +5 or +6 before news of the trade broke. Charlotte competes pretty hard at home, and without Billups/McDyess (and don't forget, Cheikh Samb), I think they can take one off a team that should be a little shell-shocked by the news.
Magic -7.5 -108 (Matchbook), 1.08 units to win 1 unit
I think it's interesting what the Bulls are doing with their lineup - starting Rose/Sefolosha/Deng/Thomas/Gooden and bringing Hinrich, Gordon, and Nocioni off the bench. Their second unit is going to be a lot better than that of most teams in the league. However, their first team is going to be incredibly overmatched in Orlando tonight, especially with the unexpected offensive output from newcomer Pietrus (20 points in 2 of the 3 games).
76ers -6.5 -110 1st half (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Just trying something here, folks. Work with me.
NHL
Buffalo -106 (Matchbook), 0.53 units to win 0.50 units
Their mascot is the Sabres. I don't know if that's the fencing sword or a particularly-toothed extinct tiger, but either way, that sounds a lot tougher than most of the other teams I've been playing lately.
Good luck everybody.
NBA
Bobcats +3.5 -104 (Matchbook), 1.04 units to win 1 unit
I was considering the Bobcats +5 or +6 before news of the trade broke. Charlotte competes pretty hard at home, and without Billups/McDyess (and don't forget, Cheikh Samb), I think they can take one off a team that should be a little shell-shocked by the news.
Magic -7.5 -108 (Matchbook), 1.08 units to win 1 unit
I think it's interesting what the Bulls are doing with their lineup - starting Rose/Sefolosha/Deng/Thomas/Gooden and bringing Hinrich, Gordon, and Nocioni off the bench. Their second unit is going to be a lot better than that of most teams in the league. However, their first team is going to be incredibly overmatched in Orlando tonight, especially with the unexpected offensive output from newcomer Pietrus (20 points in 2 of the 3 games).
76ers -6.5 -110 1st half (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Just trying something here, folks. Work with me.
NHL
Buffalo -106 (Matchbook), 0.53 units to win 0.50 units
Their mascot is the Sabres. I don't know if that's the fencing sword or a particularly-toothed extinct tiger, but either way, that sounds a lot tougher than most of the other teams I've been playing lately.
Good luck everybody.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Baskets and Pucks
For later today/tonight:
_ NBA _
Timberwolves +1.5 -104 (Matchbook), 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Every time I look at Oklahoma City's lineup, I get a little nauseous.
_ NHL _
Toronto +152 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.76 units
Calgary +164 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
Maple Leafs (Leaves?) and Flames. Those nicknames don't inspire a lot of confidence.
_ NBA _
Timberwolves +1.5 -104 (Matchbook), 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Every time I look at Oklahoma City's lineup, I get a little nauseous.
_ NHL _
Toronto +152 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.76 units
Calgary +164 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
Maple Leafs (Leaves?) and Flames. Those nicknames don't inspire a lot of confidence.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Saturday Night Fever
Really running short on time today, so no rambling explanations, just the picks, all lines from Matchbook:
College Football
Tennessee/South Carolina Under 37.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Bobcats -3 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Cavaliers +3 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Bucks -1 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Trailblazers +8 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units
NHL
Atlanta +190, 0.5 units to win 0.95 units
Florida +164, 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
Gotta run, good luck everybody.
College Football
Tennessee/South Carolina Under 37.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Bobcats -3 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Cavaliers +3 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Bucks -1 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Trailblazers +8 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units
NHL
Atlanta +190, 0.5 units to win 0.95 units
Florida +164, 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
Gotta run, good luck everybody.
Saturday Afternoon Additions
This feels like a lot of additions this morning, especially with 3 picks already posted last night for mid-afternoon, but it just turned out that all these games are early in the afternoon. If I was adding a couple now and a couple for tonight, it wouldn't seem like so many. At least, that's what I'm telling myself as I crack open a new bottle of bourbon for the Noon Eastern time bloodbath that's about to ensue. All lines from Matchbook, all to win 1 unit:
Army +8.5 -115
Army is having a Duke-like resurgence all of a sudden this year. In my mind, and that of most people, Air Force is a good team and Army is lousy. However, if you look at the numbers, they are pretty much the same team, except one of them is getting more than a touchdown at home. This line is +7.5 -110 most places right now, so I really enjoyed finding this alternative line at Matchbook a few minutes ago.
Wisconsin +5.5 -103
Over 70% on the Spartans today, but I give a slight edge to Wisconsin, so happy to take the points in what will probably be a low-scoring contest.
Kansas State +8.5 -106
Two high-powered passing offenses, and two terrible pass defenses (Kansas is just about the worst in the country), so this one looks like a shootout today. We get key football numbers 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 without having to sell our souls with a teaser. Nice.
Louisiana Tech +5 -109
The opening game win at Rutgers in September fooled everybody into thinking that Fresno State is a good team. They are not.
Back later with NBA and hockey for sure, and probably another football game for tonight as well. Good luck everybody.
Army +8.5 -115
Army is having a Duke-like resurgence all of a sudden this year. In my mind, and that of most people, Air Force is a good team and Army is lousy. However, if you look at the numbers, they are pretty much the same team, except one of them is getting more than a touchdown at home. This line is +7.5 -110 most places right now, so I really enjoyed finding this alternative line at Matchbook a few minutes ago.
Wisconsin +5.5 -103
Over 70% on the Spartans today, but I give a slight edge to Wisconsin, so happy to take the points in what will probably be a low-scoring contest.
Kansas State +8.5 -106
Two high-powered passing offenses, and two terrible pass defenses (Kansas is just about the worst in the country), so this one looks like a shootout today. We get key football numbers 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 without having to sell our souls with a teaser. Nice.
Louisiana Tech +5 -109
The opening game win at Rutgers in September fooled everybody into thinking that Fresno State is a good team. They are not.
Back later with NBA and hockey for sure, and probably another football game for tonight as well. Good luck everybody.
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