Week 9 in the NFL

Let's get right to it.

Green Bay Packers +4.5 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.

I mentioned this game earlier in my midseason review of the win total bets. Pack is getting healthy coming off a bye, Titans played Monday night. The Thursday injury report (from Wednesday's practices) told me everything I need to know. The Packers had nobody listed as OUT and only a few players (none of them stars) who missed practice or were limited at practice. The Titans? No injury report ... because they hadn't practiced yet coming off the Monday night win. This is a 1 PM start on Sunday. By then, one of these teams will have been off the field for two weeks, and the other will have been off for five days. I just don't see the Titans running away from the Packers here. It may be worthwhile to consider the money line, but for now we'll just take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 -105 (Matchbook), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.

The Jags have been getting a lot of love lately from the public, which is surprising when you look at their results to date and realize that they haven't really accomplished anything that's remotely impressive. They have two semi-decent road wins in close games against teams that aren't as good as their reputations (Indy and Denver). They have yet to win a game by more than 7 points this season.

This play is far more about the fact that the Jags are simply not a team that should give more than a touchdown on the road. But if you insist on some Bengals analysis, I will say that I think their result at Houston last week was an anomaly. The Pittsburgh game was 17-10 in the fourth before events conspired to blow it open, and most of their other losses have been decent fights.

Seattle Seahawks +6.5 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units.

this play is based on line movement. Seahawks opened at +7, 73% of Wagerline is on Philly, and yet the line has moved a half-point (and a crucial half-point at that) in Seattle's favor. Something's rotten in Denmark, and we want in.

Philly is getting too much love as one of the vaunted NFC East powerhouses, ignoring the fact that they are, in my mind, the weakest of the four. Seattle is not good. Let's be clear on that. But as it becomes painfully clear that their entire division is not very good, the team and the fans might see that, incredibly, they still have a shot at the playoffs for Holmgren's farewell tour. I think the Seattle home field advantage, recognized as one of the best in the league, makes this a close one.

New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys Under 41 (multiple), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

People seem to love playing the over in these big nationally televised 4 PM games. I can't figure it out. 70% are on the Over according to Wagerline, which seems like an astronomical number for an over/under. Of course, the lines haven't moved. So take that for what it's worth.

In the two games since Romo went down, the Cowboys have scored 14 and 13 points. And now Witten's got a cracked rib. I don't see how they're planning to move the ball. As for the Giants, well, this is clearly a good team. But Manning hasn't thrown for over 200 yards in a month. This is a power running team first (they lead the league in rushing), with a decent passing game to complement it. I think they'll keep the clock running and keep the point total low.