Running very late, obviously. My apologies in advance for no explanations. I have them, just no time to type them. All of these are either risking 1 unit or to win 1 unit depending on the juice:
College Basketball
Marshall +1 +100
West Virginia +1.5 -110
Miami(FL) +2 +107
Providence +1.5 +119
Delaware +1 +102
Auburn +1 -110 (WSEX)
NBA
Raptors +7.5 -105
Knicks +5.5 -104
Tennis pick (Garcia-Lopez) posted last night is still active but was postponed by rain until tomorrow. Maybe back with another one for tomorrow, but don't know if I'll have time to look for one. Good luck everybody.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Getting Out in Front of PECOTA
The 2009 PECOTA numbers are trickling out. The player cards will be released soon, which means the team projections will follow within a couple of weeks, although they will presumably wait until the free agent dust is settled. Those of you who were around last year my recall the pro-Rays, anti-Mariners feeding frenzy that occurred at the books after the projections came out, and the subsequent loss of value on both. It ended up not mattering much in the end. But since I only handle MLB and pro football around here, I thought it might be worth taking an early look at it this year, before the numbers come out. For now, I'm only considering futures bets, since the win total numbers won't be out for quite a while. So it's all about teams that will exceed expectations. We'll get to the Angels later.
Anyway, what we're looking for are teams whose 2008 third-order records suggest that they are better than their results and who have a ton of young talent that should improve in 2009. Divisional assignments is also a factor. For example, there's dozens of things to like about the Orioles (most of them affiliated with Matt Wieters), but three very big hurdles in their way.
I've already brought up the Indians, who at one point were 30-1 to win the World Series and who have a great core of young talent. The other teams whose pythagorean expectation numbers suggest that they were, for lack of a better word, "unlucky" in 2008 include the:
Blue Jays (again, the AL East problem comes up here)
Tigers
Mariners
Braves
Nationals
Dodgers
Padres
Let's ignore the Blue Jays for now because of the AL East issue (we'll look at them again when the win total lines come out), and set aside the Dodgers for now because they are looking at as much as 20 Wins Above Replacement Player worth of free agents at the moment. And I don't need any help talking about the Nats' farm system, as my horrified fiancee can tell you.
Any Tigers, Mariners, Braves or Padres fans out there who can tell us a little something about their young talent? Anyone else who has a sneaking suspicion PECOTA is going to love their team in 2009? Anyone spot an outlier on the futures lines for one of these teams at one of the online books? Feel free to post in the comments or email us at the address provided on the web site. We think the site works best when we're getting feedback from all the smart people out there.
Anyway, what we're looking for are teams whose 2008 third-order records suggest that they are better than their results and who have a ton of young talent that should improve in 2009. Divisional assignments is also a factor. For example, there's dozens of things to like about the Orioles (most of them affiliated with Matt Wieters), but three very big hurdles in their way.
I've already brought up the Indians, who at one point were 30-1 to win the World Series and who have a great core of young talent. The other teams whose pythagorean expectation numbers suggest that they were, for lack of a better word, "unlucky" in 2008 include the:
Blue Jays (again, the AL East problem comes up here)
Tigers
Mariners
Braves
Nationals
Dodgers
Padres
Let's ignore the Blue Jays for now because of the AL East issue (we'll look at them again when the win total lines come out), and set aside the Dodgers for now because they are looking at as much as 20 Wins Above Replacement Player worth of free agents at the moment. And I don't need any help talking about the Nats' farm system, as my horrified fiancee can tell you.
Any Tigers, Mariners, Braves or Padres fans out there who can tell us a little something about their young talent? Anyone else who has a sneaking suspicion PECOTA is going to love their team in 2009? Anyone spot an outlier on the futures lines for one of these teams at one of the online books? Feel free to post in the comments or email us at the address provided on the web site. We think the site works best when we're getting feedback from all the smart people out there.
The Fade List
Otherwise known as the Top Ten Most Popular Bets on Bookmaker Today:
1. Wake Forest
2. Cavaliers
3. Lakers
4. Syracuse
5. Notre Dame
6. Mavericks
7. Suns
8. Boston College
9. Duke
10. Magic
I'm considering tracking these for a while and see how they do. Presumably, they won't do very well at all, but considering the NBA success that the squares are having this year, I'm not 100% confident in that. But, if you have a workplace filter that lets you see our site, but not wagerline or other consensus sites, at least maybe this gives you a head start on thinking about what teams you do not want to be backing tonight (unless, of course, you're a square, and you think that just backing the lines that seem too good to be true is the way to long-term success, and in that case, this list probably looks like it's full of LOCKS for tonight).
1. Wake Forest
2. Cavaliers
3. Lakers
4. Syracuse
5. Notre Dame
6. Mavericks
7. Suns
8. Boston College
9. Duke
10. Magic
I'm considering tracking these for a while and see how they do. Presumably, they won't do very well at all, but considering the NBA success that the squares are having this year, I'm not 100% confident in that. But, if you have a workplace filter that lets you see our site, but not wagerline or other consensus sites, at least maybe this gives you a head start on thinking about what teams you do not want to be backing tonight (unless, of course, you're a square, and you think that just backing the lines that seem too good to be true is the way to long-term success, and in that case, this list probably looks like it's full of LOCKS for tonight).
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Tennis In South Africa
A tiny profit Tuesday thanks to the nice underdog win with Zverev. Thank you, Mr. Zverev, for bailing me out of that bone-headed play on Cipolla, which I still played like a total square after acknowledging that the line movement was signaling to go the other way. Stupid. For Wednesday:
G. Garcia-Lopez -166 (Matchbook) over L. Mayer, 0.83 units to win 0.50 units
Prior to this tournament, Mayer had only played two ATP-level matches in his life (you read that correctly, 2 matches ever), and he's not quite ready for prime time against a much more experienced player. Line has been inching upwards all evening, so I'm locking it in now before it goes any higher. Don't see anything else that looks good, which is sad considering there are 3 tournaments going on right now, but don't want to force anything - it's a long season. Good night everybody.
Tuesday Night and I Need A Drink
Probably gonna leave some money out there tonight, because my brain is completely fried after a very difficult day. The picks:
College Basketball
Ohio State +1.5 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Can't believe the public is on the road favorite in this game. That line move down from +2 sealed the deal.
Hofstra +11 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
The consensus on Mason isn't significant, but the full point drop combined with Sagarin's prediction of George Mason by only 9 (even after giving Mason 4 extra points for home court advantage) squeaks this one in.
NBA
Raptors +10 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
If you want free money, just bet on the Cavs every game no matter what the spread is. Seriously, that's how easy it's been for the fools out there this year. Of course, maybe we look like the fools by consistently beating our head against the Cavs' wall, while the too-good-to-be-true backers are counting their money.
76ers +3 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
The Celtics probably won't miss KG. He's really not that important, right?
NHL
Atlanta +190, 0.5 units to win 0.95 units
Some day one of these big underdogs is going to win. Maybe.
Holy crap, I wish I worked at a sportsbook today so I could see the thousands of Celtics/Cavs parlays coming in. The squares are probably lined up to bet their "entire account" on such a "sure thing." Jesus, I hate this hobby sometimes. Back later if I see anything in tennis for tomorrow (a very tiny profit earned on today's games).
College Basketball
Ohio State +1.5 +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Can't believe the public is on the road favorite in this game. That line move down from +2 sealed the deal.
Hofstra +11 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
The consensus on Mason isn't significant, but the full point drop combined with Sagarin's prediction of George Mason by only 9 (even after giving Mason 4 extra points for home court advantage) squeaks this one in.
NBA
Raptors +10 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
If you want free money, just bet on the Cavs every game no matter what the spread is. Seriously, that's how easy it's been for the fools out there this year. Of course, maybe we look like the fools by consistently beating our head against the Cavs' wall, while the too-good-to-be-true backers are counting their money.
76ers +3 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
The Celtics probably won't miss KG. He's really not that important, right?
NHL
Atlanta +190, 0.5 units to win 0.95 units
Some day one of these big underdogs is going to win. Maybe.
Holy crap, I wish I worked at a sportsbook today so I could see the thousands of Celtics/Cavs parlays coming in. The squares are probably lined up to bet their "entire account" on such a "sure thing." Jesus, I hate this hobby sometimes. Back later if I see anything in tennis for tomorrow (a very tiny profit earned on today's games).
Monday, February 2, 2009
Tuesday Tennis
I have no idea what the time zone differences are for these tournaments and made no effort to figure it out, so you're on your own. For all I know, they could start at 3 AM or tomorrow afternoon. The picks:
Johannesburg
F. Cipolla -130 (Bookmaker) over M. Chiudinelli, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units
The line movement would suggest that I'm wrong on this one, so probably should pass. But, Cipolla should beat the qualifier rather easy on the hardcourt tomorrow.
Zagreb
M. Zverev +174 (BetUS) over A. Seppi, 0.50 units to win 0.87 units
OK, line movement here is much better and is favoring the German (Zverev). He is a good hardcourt player, but because Seppi is the #6 seed, we're getting a good number here even though this is not Seppi's preferred surface.
S. Bolleli -130 (Matchbook) over V. Troicki, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units
Bolleli made the semi-finals here last year on the indoor courts, but to be fair, he was beaten in the semi-finals by the same guy (Stakhovsky) that beat Troicki in the 2nd round. Still, Bolleli is definitely the better overall player and the line has been growing over the past several hours, so somebody out there agrees with me.
S. Stakhovsky -110 (WSEX) over D. Hrbaty, 0.55 units to win 0.50 units
The 30-year-old Hrbaty has a more recognizable name after his long career, but his best days are behind him. A good surface for his young Ukrainian opponent, and, oh yeah, I almost forgot to mention that Stakhovsky is the defending champion at this event.
For basketball/football, most books will have the exact same lines for most of the games, but in tennis, it really pays to shop around and have multiple outs. As you can see, each of those four lines was found at a different sportsbook, and the differences among the books were pretty significant for a couple of those matches. And if you're not American and can use Pinnacle, those are often the best lines out there (dammit). Good night everybody.
Groundhog Day in the NBA
Hey, that sort of rhymes, which is always a good sign. Or is it a bad omen? Can't remember. The picks:
Knicks +6 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
I know Andrew Bynum feels like he's repeating the past over and over again. Sucks for him. Even with him out, this line is way too fishy to pass.
Bobcats +6.5 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units
The Gerald Wallace injury is significant for Charlotte, but Utah is really hurting with Deron, Boozer, and AK47 all on the shelf tonight. The injuries are baked into the line, but the point was that Wallace's injury doesn't scare me into passing this one after looking at the crippled team on the end of the court. Seventy percent still like the Jazz, but after rising earlier in the day, the line took a big tumble down this evening. False move? Survey says: could be.
College and NHL picks were up this afternoon. If I find time to look at the overnight tennis matches, it's possible I'll find something and post it. Otherwise, have a good night everybody.
P.S. Pinnacle had these odds up earlier today:
Will Hambone post a cheesy picture referencing the fact that it's Groundhog Day today?
Yes -9500
No +8800
Monday Night & No More Football
At least, not for another 6 months or so. College hoops and hockey for tonight:
College Basketball
Wisconsin-Green Bay +1.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Around eighty percent of the bets coming in on Butler, but the line is holding steady or even dropping at the sportsbooks. The first of two nice-looking home dogs tonight.
Baylor +1 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Down to a pick at some places. Pomeroy and Sagarin both have the Bears winning this one at home tonight.
NHL
St. Louis +262, 0.5 units to win 1.31 units
Like I've said about other hockey games before, the favorite in this game is better, but not THIS much better.
Back later with NBA and anything else that jumps out at me. I'm guessing the Knicks are going to end up as a play, but I'm gonna wait and see what the line does this afternoon. Didn't have time to look at the tennis matches today (Super Bowl party last night), but might be able to look at the ones to be played early Tuesday morning and post later tonight.
College Basketball
Wisconsin-Green Bay +1.5 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Around eighty percent of the bets coming in on Butler, but the line is holding steady or even dropping at the sportsbooks. The first of two nice-looking home dogs tonight.
Baylor +1 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Down to a pick at some places. Pomeroy and Sagarin both have the Bears winning this one at home tonight.
NHL
St. Louis +262, 0.5 units to win 1.31 units
Like I've said about other hockey games before, the favorite in this game is better, but not THIS much better.
Back later with NBA and anything else that jumps out at me. I'm guessing the Knicks are going to end up as a play, but I'm gonna wait and see what the line does this afternoon. Didn't have time to look at the tennis matches today (Super Bowl party last night), but might be able to look at the ones to be played early Tuesday morning and post later tonight.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Super Sunday - Non-Football Picks
All the games are early today. It's almost like something big is going on tonight that nobody wants to compete with. Weird. The picks:
NBA
Timberwolves +13 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
The betting numbers and line movement make this a pick, but the Celtics will probably win by 30, so decide for yourself how much of a masochist you are.
College Basketball
Missouri State +10.5 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units
Another one that looks so wrong, it has to be a pick. Bears need to keep the pace slow and pound the ball inside to all those big bodies to stay close.
Montana State +5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Line dropping fast even with heavy support for the visiting Vikings. Pomeroy has Portland State by 4, and I think the home dog has a real chance at the straight-up victory.
NHL
Ottawa +212, 0.5 units to win 1.06 units
Ability difference between these two teams doesn't look this big to me. Ottawa much better killing penalties. Line continues to fall despite almost 70% of wagerline-type folks on the Caps.
Nashville +136, 0.5 units to win 0.68 units
Cut and paste Ottawa notes here.
Super Bowl pick on the Steelers already up a couple of days ago. Might be adding one on the total, but Grover is having computer issues. Enjoy the big day, folks.
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