I'm not gonna lie to you: if this was a random mid-November game, I'd pass on after maybe a minute or two of analysis. There's just not enough here to make me lean one way or the other. Most of the signs point Steelers, but seven is a lot of points, and there's enough of a disparity between the Arizona Cardinals in good weather and the Arizona Cardinals in bad weather to make we wonder if we should treat them like two completely different teams. But this is the Super Bowl, and this blog exists not just to make money, but also to provide our readers with a service. And since almost every reader we have is gonna make a play of some kind on this game, an official pick is the least we can do. So here it is:
Pittsburgh Steelers -7 +113 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.13 units
I hate the Steelers. I hate their douchebag fans that act like they're they're better than everyone else. News flash, Yinzers: if you were really supporters of your hometown team instead of just front-running assholes, you'd come out for your Pirates, too. But for some reason, I don't see a whole lot of yellow at the park when the Flying LaRoches come through town.
And has anyone ever gotten more undeserved praise than Ben Roethlisberger, except maybe Troy Polamalu? Chris Berman can't stop talking about them even though neither player is his team's star on their side of the ball. And I don't know much about what Hines Ward does to top the list of the NFL's dirtiest players, but if you're the only offensive player to make the list year after year after year, you've gotta be a pretty tremendous asshole.
Now, if I hate the team this much, you can imagine how difficult it was to come to grips with the fact that I'm gonna have to root for them during the four-hour finale of the NFL season. But the stats are just too much to ignore. Pittsburgh's defense is not just good, it's historically good. I'd put them second to the 2000 Ravens in my lifetime. Nobody was even close to them this year. The Cardinals haven't seen anything remotely resembling the Steelers D except maybe the combination of heavy snow and Patriots that shut them down in December.
We almost never pick favorites, and giving a touchdown is painful. But the Cardinals have been getting more hype than any big underdog I can recall. There's no question who has been getting more media attention this week. The World Wide Leader would have you believe that Larry Fitzgerald is so good he makes Jerry Rice look like my flu-ridden fiancee. Thanks to this unprecendented outpouring of media love for the underdog, the Cards are actually getting a majority of the action according to Wagerline and the other services. The split is around 60/40, I believe. Yet the books moved the line only a half-point, and in the Steelers' favor to boot. I doubt the books have an interest here with so much money to be made simply by splitting the action in half. But with a ton of square money in the mix, I have to believe that there are some pretty big fish out there who like the Steelers.
For further reading, I recommend the Football Outsiders Preview, which further highlights the reasons to like the Steelers. DVOA steered us down the right path before the season started ... let's hope it does the same as the season ends.
Look for a possible Under play tomorrow (for many of the same reasons outlined above). And if my laptop starts working again soon, we will try to do a guide to some of the frivolous bets out there on Sunday morning, for those who are in this to amuse themselves instead of to make money.
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4 comments:
Didnt realize you were haters of Pgh sports fans....4 years ago when the Penguins were the NHL's laughingstock and had 50 points, their avg attendance was over 90% with a number of sellouts...
With a season ticket waiting list of 20,000 or more, which goes back to the 1970's, I dont think Steeler fans are frontrunners....
Not fair to criticize Pirate fans - for as shitty as the team is and management's decision to pocket the majority of their revenue sharing money and not plow it back into players, anything over a million fans annually is too much imo as most fans here refuse to line the pockets of ownership while a shitty product is put on the field. At some point, a fan has to draw the line with supporting their team when that support($$) only lines the pockets of ownership and we dont see anything toward player development/free agent pickeups...
Steve-
It was somewhat tongue-in-cheek,and somewhat out of jealousy/frsutration, mostly because I'm a Redskins fan.
As you may recall, we Skins fans had to endure getting our ass handed to us by the Steelers and being exposed as a fraud on national television, and also had to listen to three hours of Kornheiser talking about how many terrible towels were in the crowd. This was followed by three days of local and national media doing the same. It was exceedingly annoying.
Meanwhile, nobody bothered to point out that some people in the D.C. area might have their priorities elsewhere the night before the national elections.
Sorry to take it out on you and your kind. Pittsburgh fans have been entirely pleasant and courteous in my few interactions with them at the bars.
I do hate those towels, though. The "how dare they disrespect the towel!" thing is a tad preposterous, you gotta admit. And the Polamalu love is a bit out of control.
Also ... picking the Steelers here means rooting against the more appealing Cardinals underdog/no champhionships in 60 years story. Rooting against good stories in favor of financial interests isn't a problem on a week-to-week basis. But let's be honest, it's harder to do for something like the Super Bowl, where we've only got one more game to enjoy, and then seven months of no football. That's another reason this pick goes against my "heart." And all that shows is that I'm really picking with my head here. I meant to point that out in the post.
The Steeler hate is all Grover. When I was a kid in the 70's (Steeler glory days), my brother and I had matching Steelers jackets. And I think I still have football cards of all the members of the Steel Curtain. Not a big fan these days, but not a hater either.
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