Our first MLB series play of the postseason. This one was a no-brainer:
Milwaukee Brewers +164 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 3.28 units.
Let's pretend an extremely promising young pitcher has missed most of the regular season due to injury. His team's fanbase (not to mention fantasy owners everywhere) was crushed when he went down early in the season, with some even writing off the season. Despite the setback, the team rallied to make the playoffs, and the elite young pitcher returned just in time for the postseason.
If the player in question was, say, 22 year old Joba Chamberlain, and he was coming back to rejoin the New York Yankees, we'd be hearing all about how he will provide a huge boost, how this changes the dynamic of the series, and how he could well be the "X Factor" that pushes his team to the top.
But if the player in question is 22 year old Yovani Gallardo, we get articles about how he's the youngest Game One starter ever.
Everyone is falling all over themselves to pick the Phillies. Meanwhile, Myers has been in a tailspin for the last month, and the best thing you'll ever hear about Moyer is that he's "reliable." There are two days off in this five-game set, meaning that the Brewers will start Sabathia twice and may even get two starts (or one start and one or two bullpen appearances) out of Gallardo. That doesn't even account for the possibility that Ben Sheets might return at some point.
I see this series as a push, maybe slightly favoring the Phillies (they have a bullpen edge, although not as substantial an edge as people think, and a small hitting edge). +164 is significant value no matter how you slice it.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Cubs/Dodgers Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Dempster vs. Lowe
Dempster's only edge in this matchup is in strikeouts (8.14 K/9 for Dempster, 6.27 for Lowe). However, because of his larger walk rate, Lowe actually has the clear advantage in K/BB (Lowe = 3.27, Dempster = 2.46). Other stats pretty even, but because of all the free passes issued by Dempster, we're gonna say....
Edge: Lowe
Game 2: Zambrano vs. Billingsley
Somewhat surprisingly, Big Z doesn't really have a clear advantage in any category, other than number of bats broken over his knee. Zambrano's K/BB is less than 2, and Billingsley has a huge advantage in strikeouts, while issuing a roughly equal rate of walks. Zambrano's FIP is 4.24 and HR/9 is 0.86, which are far and away the worst of all the pitchers starting the first 3 games of this series.
Edge: Billingsley (not really even close)
Game 3: Harden vs. Kuroda
Harden's 11.01 K/9 is ridiculously good, and his WHIP of 1.06 this season is too. Kuroda is pretty close to even in most categories, and has the superior walk rate, but isn't quite on the same level in sitting down hitters.
Edge: Harden (I think I'm required to say, "assuming he's healthy," here)
Game 4: Matchup unknown (could be Dempster/Lowe on 3 days rest, or Lilly/Maddux)
Hitting advantage to the Cubs, but not by as much as you might think. The meat of the Cubs lineup (Soriano, Theirot, Lee, Ramirez, Soto) are all right-handers, but they won't see a single left-handed starter in the entire series. That's OK with Ramirez and his .963 OPS vs. righties this season, but the rest of them all perform better against LHP. If they're smart, they'll hit Edmonds #5 (and keep Reed Johnson on the bench), and start Fontenot over DeRosa at 2B (DeRosa's calf may make the decision for them). The Dodgers can hit lefties Ethier and Loney at #4 and 5, and if switch-hitter Rafael Furcal is healthy enough (2/9 in last 4 games after returning from DL) to leadoff, LA gets a big boost with him up there because it allows them to move Kemp lower in the lineup and keep Angel Berroa on the bench.
How in the hell are the Dodgers +210 in this series? That's crazy high.
Dempster's only edge in this matchup is in strikeouts (8.14 K/9 for Dempster, 6.27 for Lowe). However, because of his larger walk rate, Lowe actually has the clear advantage in K/BB (Lowe = 3.27, Dempster = 2.46). Other stats pretty even, but because of all the free passes issued by Dempster, we're gonna say....
Edge: Lowe
Game 2: Zambrano vs. Billingsley
Somewhat surprisingly, Big Z doesn't really have a clear advantage in any category, other than number of bats broken over his knee. Zambrano's K/BB is less than 2, and Billingsley has a huge advantage in strikeouts, while issuing a roughly equal rate of walks. Zambrano's FIP is 4.24 and HR/9 is 0.86, which are far and away the worst of all the pitchers starting the first 3 games of this series.
Edge: Billingsley (not really even close)
Game 3: Harden vs. Kuroda
Harden's 11.01 K/9 is ridiculously good, and his WHIP of 1.06 this season is too. Kuroda is pretty close to even in most categories, and has the superior walk rate, but isn't quite on the same level in sitting down hitters.
Edge: Harden (I think I'm required to say, "assuming he's healthy," here)
Game 4: Matchup unknown (could be Dempster/Lowe on 3 days rest, or Lilly/Maddux)
Hitting advantage to the Cubs, but not by as much as you might think. The meat of the Cubs lineup (Soriano, Theirot, Lee, Ramirez, Soto) are all right-handers, but they won't see a single left-handed starter in the entire series. That's OK with Ramirez and his .963 OPS vs. righties this season, but the rest of them all perform better against LHP. If they're smart, they'll hit Edmonds #5 (and keep Reed Johnson on the bench), and start Fontenot over DeRosa at 2B (DeRosa's calf may make the decision for them). The Dodgers can hit lefties Ethier and Loney at #4 and 5, and if switch-hitter Rafael Furcal is healthy enough (2/9 in last 4 games after returning from DL) to leadoff, LA gets a big boost with him up there because it allows them to move Kemp lower in the lineup and keep Angel Berroa on the bench.
How in the hell are the Dodgers +210 in this series? That's crazy high.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Pride Comes Before the Fall
Well, that will be the last time I write about how great we are before the weekend is through. Thankfully, the NFL win total bets had another good day.
I love the Tigers today at the numbers I'm seeing (somewhere in the neighborhood of +210). I don't see how the White Sox deserve to be better than 2 to 1 favorites in this one, and my thoughts on Gavin Floyd are well-known. Unfortunately, I can't access the usual sites, so I can't post an official pick. If anyone feels like emailing me or posting here with a good number from BetUS or Matchbook, it would be much appreciated.
I love the Tigers today at the numbers I'm seeing (somewhere in the neighborhood of +210). I don't see how the White Sox deserve to be better than 2 to 1 favorites in this one, and my thoughts on Gavin Floyd are well-known. Unfortunately, I can't access the usual sites, so I can't post an official pick. If anyone feels like emailing me or posting here with a good number from BetUS or Matchbook, it would be much appreciated.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Sunday Morning
What's that you say? You're impressed? This old thing? Just something we threw together at the last minute. No big deal, really. Plus 5 units, you say? Genius, you say? Please, you're making us blush.
Only one addition to the NFL slate today, and it's one I mentioned a couple posts ago.
Washington Redskins/Dallas Cowboys Under 46 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units.
There's just too much action the other way, and an easy explanation for the action (talking heads raving about the Cowboys' weapons). Yet the line does not move. These teams both have decent defenses. Sure, there's plenty of offensive talent. But 46 is a lot of points.
Only one addition to the NFL slate today, and it's one I mentioned a couple posts ago.
Washington Redskins/Dallas Cowboys Under 46 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units.
There's just too much action the other way, and an easy explanation for the action (talking heads raving about the Cowboys' weapons). Yet the line does not move. These teams both have decent defenses. Sure, there's plenty of offensive talent. But 46 is a lot of points.
Friday, September 26, 2008
NFL Week 3: So Right, Yet So Wrong
First- congratulations to Hambone, who is the proud father of a new baby boy. A great day for him and his wife, and a frightening day for his friends.
Ok, on to the important stuff. By all measures, we're doing pretty well in the 2008 NFL season. We're beating the books so far (admittedly, it's too soon to really judge). Even better, 4 of my 5 win total over/unders are looking good, adding some validity to my preseason theory that, armed with decent statistical projections, a little insight, and a smidgen of common sense, you can beat win total bets in the NFL in much the same way that you can with MLB win total bets.
But so far, it looks like we totally whiffed on the Cowboys Under 10.5. And it hurts, because that was the one I personally talked about the most, both here on the site and with my friends. And it's also the one that's the most "contrarian," which was the whole basis for the theory. The public and the talking heads loved them and many had them winning 12 or 13 games, while the stat guys were less enthusiastic. It appears that not only were the public and the talking heads correct, but the reasons they offered for their projections (Barber's emergence, TO's maturity, improvements on defense) were also correct.
At least we'll always have Steve Phillips, his projection of 92 wins for the Mariners, and the piles of money that it won for us as comfort. Plus, hey, 4 out of 5 in the NFL ain't too shabby.
On to Week 4. These lines are from last night. If you see something better today or tomorrow, please make a note of it in the comments. We'll repost and most likely add another on Saturday afternoon:
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) -105 (BetUs), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
This was also listed at +3, +103 last night on Matchbook. As with last week, if you can access the converter and want to run it for me, I'd appreciate it. They look about even. We like the Vikings this season, and this spot looks like a great spot to take them. Just not buying the Titans this year, and we think the Vikings supremely talented offensive line can counter the Titans' strength up front.
St. Louis Rams (+9) -110 (BetUS), 2.2 units to win 2 units.
Haven't we been here before? Last week we faded the Bills as ten point favorites (and wagerline consensus favorites) hosting a much-ridiculed team with an offense that featured a quality running back who excels at catching the ball out of the backfield. Now we get to make essentially the same play, except we get the home team and we only have to give back one point. Honestly, is your impression of the Rams' train wreck this week really that much worse than your impression of the Raiders' train wreck was last week? Two units for this sequel sounds good to us. We might even add a quarter-unit money line play before Sunday if we're feeling saucy.
That's it this week. We're staying the hell away from the Cowboys-Redskins game, for the reasons discussed above, but if you want some action on the big afternoon game, the Under (47) looks tempting. Everyone and their mother is hammering the Over after seeing the Cowboys light up the Eagles and Packers in consecutive national games.
Ok, on to the important stuff. By all measures, we're doing pretty well in the 2008 NFL season. We're beating the books so far (admittedly, it's too soon to really judge). Even better, 4 of my 5 win total over/unders are looking good, adding some validity to my preseason theory that, armed with decent statistical projections, a little insight, and a smidgen of common sense, you can beat win total bets in the NFL in much the same way that you can with MLB win total bets.
But so far, it looks like we totally whiffed on the Cowboys Under 10.5. And it hurts, because that was the one I personally talked about the most, both here on the site and with my friends. And it's also the one that's the most "contrarian," which was the whole basis for the theory. The public and the talking heads loved them and many had them winning 12 or 13 games, while the stat guys were less enthusiastic. It appears that not only were the public and the talking heads correct, but the reasons they offered for their projections (Barber's emergence, TO's maturity, improvements on defense) were also correct.
At least we'll always have Steve Phillips, his projection of 92 wins for the Mariners, and the piles of money that it won for us as comfort. Plus, hey, 4 out of 5 in the NFL ain't too shabby.
On to Week 4. These lines are from last night. If you see something better today or tomorrow, please make a note of it in the comments. We'll repost and most likely add another on Saturday afternoon:
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) -105 (BetUs), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.
This was also listed at +3, +103 last night on Matchbook. As with last week, if you can access the converter and want to run it for me, I'd appreciate it. They look about even. We like the Vikings this season, and this spot looks like a great spot to take them. Just not buying the Titans this year, and we think the Vikings supremely talented offensive line can counter the Titans' strength up front.
St. Louis Rams (+9) -110 (BetUS), 2.2 units to win 2 units.
Haven't we been here before? Last week we faded the Bills as ten point favorites (and wagerline consensus favorites) hosting a much-ridiculed team with an offense that featured a quality running back who excels at catching the ball out of the backfield. Now we get to make essentially the same play, except we get the home team and we only have to give back one point. Honestly, is your impression of the Rams' train wreck this week really that much worse than your impression of the Raiders' train wreck was last week? Two units for this sequel sounds good to us. We might even add a quarter-unit money line play before Sunday if we're feeling saucy.
That's it this week. We're staying the hell away from the Cowboys-Redskins game, for the reasons discussed above, but if you want some action on the big afternoon game, the Under (47) looks tempting. Everyone and their mother is hammering the Over after seeing the Cowboys light up the Eagles and Packers in consecutive national games.
College Football- Help Wanted
With my partner Hambone at the hospital awaiting the little Hambone, I'm left to make the college football plays. If anyone who doesn't work for Big Brother feels like line-shopping, please feel free to do so and post your findings in the comments. I'm using the lines at the USA Today website and assuming -110, since that's all I can access I have here at Globex headquarters.
UAB (+26.5) -110 at South Carolina, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
This one is all Hambone- he loved it early this week, even though he's Columbia born-and-bred. All I know is that South Carolina plays in the SEC, which according to annoying rednecks everywhere, is so good that their worst team could win every other NCAA conference even if they only got to put nine guys on the field. Personally, I'm a big fan of fading the opinions of loudmouth rednecks.
And while I'm on the topic: please, please stop wearing your cheap sunglasses on the brims of your baseball caps. You look like an idiot and a mindless conformist, and, more importantly, wearing either of the aforementioned items eliminates the need for the other.
OK, I'm done now.
Houston (+11) -110 at East Carolina, 2.2 units to win 2 units.
Check it out- I have a sixth sense. I can't access Wagerline, and haven't looked at the numbers for this week at all, but I predict that East Carolina, which lost to a terrible NC State team last week, is getting well over 60% of the action thanks to their extensive media exposure over the last month. Am I right? Anyway, we're not that impressed with ECU's "big-time" wins over (1) a rebuilding Virginia Tech team that was starting a QB so terrible that they had to un-redshirt a guy to replace him, and (2) a West Virginia team that, apparently, doesn't have a head coach. Houston keeps this one close.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Auburn, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Nobody loves poor Tennessee. Awww. I think it's the transitive property- they lost to UCLA, UCLA lost to BYU 59-0, ergo, Tennessee is terrible. But that sort of thinking never works in college football. Auburn's valiant effort against an LSU team that is not nearly as good as last year's national champions certainly has them getting some unwarranted love, too. We think the Vols put up a good fight, and Fulmer gets to stick around at least one more week.
Players pulling stunts like this certianly doesn't give me much confidence in Tennessee, though.
Michigan (+6) vs Wisconsin, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
It's "maligned national power" week at Against All Odds. We're not impressed with Wisconsin, and we think Michigan makes a stand this week and maybe even pulls the outright upset. I don't have much else to say about this game, so I'll note that The Big House and Camp Randall are the only two big time tradition-rich college football stadiums I've ever visited- I'm not counting various ACC and Ivy league stadiums, as they're either big time or tradition-rich, but never both. And between them, the Badgers win the "best stadium experience" contest in a walkover. Get it together, Ann Arbor. I recommend way more cussing in your chants, and way, way less tomahawk-chopping.
UAB (+26.5) -110 at South Carolina, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
This one is all Hambone- he loved it early this week, even though he's Columbia born-and-bred. All I know is that South Carolina plays in the SEC, which according to annoying rednecks everywhere, is so good that their worst team could win every other NCAA conference even if they only got to put nine guys on the field. Personally, I'm a big fan of fading the opinions of loudmouth rednecks.
And while I'm on the topic: please, please stop wearing your cheap sunglasses on the brims of your baseball caps. You look like an idiot and a mindless conformist, and, more importantly, wearing either of the aforementioned items eliminates the need for the other.
OK, I'm done now.
Houston (+11) -110 at East Carolina, 2.2 units to win 2 units.
Check it out- I have a sixth sense. I can't access Wagerline, and haven't looked at the numbers for this week at all, but I predict that East Carolina, which lost to a terrible NC State team last week, is getting well over 60% of the action thanks to their extensive media exposure over the last month. Am I right? Anyway, we're not that impressed with ECU's "big-time" wins over (1) a rebuilding Virginia Tech team that was starting a QB so terrible that they had to un-redshirt a guy to replace him, and (2) a West Virginia team that, apparently, doesn't have a head coach. Houston keeps this one close.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Auburn, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Nobody loves poor Tennessee. Awww. I think it's the transitive property- they lost to UCLA, UCLA lost to BYU 59-0, ergo, Tennessee is terrible. But that sort of thinking never works in college football. Auburn's valiant effort against an LSU team that is not nearly as good as last year's national champions certainly has them getting some unwarranted love, too. We think the Vols put up a good fight, and Fulmer gets to stick around at least one more week.
Players pulling stunts like this certianly doesn't give me much confidence in Tennessee, though.
Michigan (+6) vs Wisconsin, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
It's "maligned national power" week at Against All Odds. We're not impressed with Wisconsin, and we think Michigan makes a stand this week and maybe even pulls the outright upset. I don't have much else to say about this game, so I'll note that The Big House and Camp Randall are the only two big time tradition-rich college football stadiums I've ever visited- I'm not counting various ACC and Ivy league stadiums, as they're either big time or tradition-rich, but never both. And between them, the Badgers win the "best stadium experience" contest in a walkover. Get it together, Ann Arbor. I recommend way more cussing in your chants, and way, way less tomahawk-chopping.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Odds and Ends
First things first- no baseball plays today. Slight lean to San Diego with Peavy (generally +110 or thereabouts) on the mound vs. Maddux, but nothing looks too great. Plus if we win another game, we move back to being ahead by double-digit units. I like having the single digit profit margin going into the playoffs. Keeps us hungry. But feel free to play the Padres if you are jonesing for some gambling action as a side effect of your restless leg syndrome or something.
NFL picks will be up as usual around lunchtime tomorrow. Here's a link to one of my favorite NFL tools, the LVSC NFL power rankings. It's a good place to start; I like to look for discrepancies between these rankings and the week-to-week lines, and if I find some, move on to the next question ... why.
Added bonus- the D.C. Sports Bog also has a visit to Fred Smoot's house. Anyway, I'll probably include a second, more focused round of "leans" for the college games tomorrow around lunchtime as well. Probably won't make any official plays until Friday afternoon or evening, though.
Finally, our senior citizen Bo Derek-referencing friend Hambone is still awaiting the arrival of his first born. For those of you that have not met Hambone in person, he has a giant head. Think Charlie Brown. Or at least the kid from So I Married an Axe Murderer. So if his child-to-be has inherited that genetic deficiency, there could be some delays. Anyway, I'll pass along any news I receive.
NFL picks will be up as usual around lunchtime tomorrow. Here's a link to one of my favorite NFL tools, the LVSC NFL power rankings. It's a good place to start; I like to look for discrepancies between these rankings and the week-to-week lines, and if I find some, move on to the next question ... why.
Added bonus- the D.C. Sports Bog also has a visit to Fred Smoot's house. Anyway, I'll probably include a second, more focused round of "leans" for the college games tomorrow around lunchtime as well. Probably won't make any official plays until Friday afternoon or evening, though.
Finally, our senior citizen Bo Derek-referencing friend Hambone is still awaiting the arrival of his first born. For those of you that have not met Hambone in person, he has a giant head. Think Charlie Brown. Or at least the kid from So I Married an Axe Murderer. So if his child-to-be has inherited that genetic deficiency, there could be some delays. Anyway, I'll pass along any news I receive.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
10 Early College Leans
Looking at the early wagerline results and line movements, 10 possible picks for Saturday:
Marshall +14 at West Virginia
Ole Miss +22.5 at Florida
Houston +10.5 at East Carolina
UAB +24.5 at South Carolina
Arkansas State -1 at Memphis
Indiana +7.5 vs Michigan State
Tennessee +6.5 at Auburn
Buffalo +6.5 at Central Michigan
Michigan +6 vs Wisconsin
UTEP +4.5 vs Central Florida
We haven't made any final decisions on picks yet, just throwing some out there for discussion. We won't play all of these, and may play some that are not on this list. If my wife goes into labor in the next couple of days, Grover will probably be picking a few from this list as official picks. Any thoughts are always welcome.
P.S. In case you're too young to know, that picture is Bo Derek from the movie, "10"
One Wednesday play
Tonight we're sticking with one half-unit play:
Atlanta Braves +268 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.34 units.
No question this matchup favors the Phillies. But unless Brett Myers turned into circa 1999 Pedro Martinez when I wasn't looking, +268 seems like a value play. Interestingly, Hambone thinks Brett Myers is circa 1999 Pedro, so this took some convincing. Caveat emptor.
Update on the Minnesota travesty: The Twins are currently 1.5 games behind the White Sox. If you take Livan Hernandez's July starts, and substitute Liriano's performance in one of his average starts since returning to the rotation in August (6 weeks too late) for Livan's starts, the result is three extra wins for the Twinkies.
Join me tomorrow, when I discuss various legal theories available to Twins season ticketholders should they decide to sue Twins management.
Atlanta Braves +268 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.34 units.
No question this matchup favors the Phillies. But unless Brett Myers turned into circa 1999 Pedro Martinez when I wasn't looking, +268 seems like a value play. Interestingly, Hambone thinks Brett Myers is circa 1999 Pedro, so this took some convincing. Caveat emptor.
Update on the Minnesota travesty: The Twins are currently 1.5 games behind the White Sox. If you take Livan Hernandez's July starts, and substitute Liriano's performance in one of his average starts since returning to the rotation in August (6 weeks too late) for Livan's starts, the result is three extra wins for the Twinkies.
Join me tomorrow, when I discuss various legal theories available to Twins season ticketholders should they decide to sue Twins management.
Help Me With My Math
One of the early lines for this weekend is South Carolina -24.5 vs. UAB. Now, I haven't had time to look at UAB yet, and I don't have a supercomputer handy to crunch the numbers, but doesn't this mean that the Gamecocks would have to score more than 24 points to cover this spread?
Unless UAB is going to give up fumbles and interceptions at its own 10-yard-line all night like NC State did, I just don't see it.
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