That News Flash I've been hearing about all day is right up there with "New Book Alleges A-Rod May Have Lied About Steroid Use" on the list of shocking news stories that didn't actually shock anybody. The picks (fades) for tonight:
MLB
Indians +161 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.61 units
A number that really jumped off the page at us earlier today. Public still loving the big favorite Red Sox, but the line has dropped slightly. I guess the line and support can be attributed to a combination of the love for the Sox and the hatred of Carl Pavano and his 7.46 ERA and 1-3 record (plus the memories of his injury-plagued stint with the Yankees). But Pavano has pitched better than that. He has 19 strikeouts vs. only 5 walks so far this season, a FIP of 4.44, and a BABIP which has inflated his ERA at least a little bit.
NHL
Capitals +158 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.79 units
70% of the bets are coming in on the Penguins today, presumably due to this kind of thinking: "There's no way Pittsburgh can go down 0-3 in the series because they have Sidney Crosby on their team and he's been talked about on SportsCenter, like, a million times!" We are almost always looking to go the other way in "must-win" situations like this. If Theodore was still in goal for the Caps, I would be hesitant, but the switch to Varmalov has really turned a weakness into a strength. Obviously, the Penguins should be favored, but this line looks like an over-reaction and the line retreat makes it look like the books know it.
Good luck everybody.
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