Never made it back to the computer before last night, which is a shame considering both NHL underdogs won and even the Nationals picked up another road win. Moving on to Sunday, Mother's Day commitments make it unlikely we'll be available later, so here's everything for today, lines from Matchbook:
MLB
Braves +135, 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Pretty much a coin flip, although Kawakami has been slightly better, but the public is on the World Champion Phillies. And they're saying it like that when they put in their bets.
Orioles +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units
Only +131 against the mighty Yankees and Joba the Hut? Seems a little short. More strikeouts and more walks for Chamberlain. Hoping the the latter bites him on his big fat ass like that swarm of gnats in Cleveland a couple of years ago.
Mariners -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
No real contrarian angle on this one, just a complete pitching mismatch. Not a lot of hitting expected in this one, so we'll take the more dominant starter and the bullpen (Nathan excepted) that's been performing better so far.
Padres +149, 1 unit to win 1.49 units
Not as much history to look at with Geer as opposed to Oswalt, but so far, so good. His strikeout rate isn't very high, but Oswalt hasn't exactly been mowing them down either. Line drop overnight makes me think there's value in the nice dog number.
NHL
Anaheim Ducks +210, 0.5 units to win 1.05 units
Public huge on the home team (Hockeytown!) today, but the Ducks continue to surprise, taking one game in Detroit already (and 2 in San Jose) this postseason. Ducks are virtually even with the Wings on both sides of the power play, and have the best goalie in the playoffs. Tons of value here.
Good luck everybody, and don't forget to phone your Mom. When I rolled over and woke her up this morning she said she was expecting a call.
3 comments:
just a complete pitching mismatch. Not a lot of hitting expected in this one, so we'll take the more dominant starter and the bullpen
Aren't those reasons to take Minny?
If your strategy is to try and figure out which team is going to win, and then go the other way, then I suppose they would be, but that's not the way I look at it. I would rather find lines that are shaded by public opinion, such that one team has a better chance of winning than the line would suggest. In this game, I think public perception is still that Minnesota is a good team and Seattle sucks. The betting is 50/50, but considering it's Bedard vs. Blackburn, I think even 50% is giving Blackburn way too much credit, and the line move toward Seattle was also a factor. Of course, now that I said that, Blackburn will toss a complete game shutout....
I would rather find lines that are shaded by public opinion
Me too. I only brought it up because the reasons you listed seemed to indicate that the line would have been shaded in the opposite direction. It's not like the public can't see Bedard has a 2.37 ERA.
I think public perception is still that Minnesota is a good team and Seattle sucks.
Keep in mind, this is my first year betting baseball, so I am still figuring out where the public stands in some instances. If what I highlighted is the case, by all means, I am wrong.
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