Sunday Picks

I'm going to have to write a post about all the ball-busting ways to lose a bet. Yesterday, the Astros fall in the bottom of the 9th, and then in the later game, Giants starter Kevin Correia gets injured in the very first inning and leaves the game. At least Gabbard made it to the 2nd inning on Patriots Day before getting hurt. Picking up the pieces today with 2 baseball picks and 2 in the NBA:

MLB

Braves (Smoltz) -117 (Matchbook), 117 to win 100

Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems like an awfully short number for Smoltz vs. Figueroa (who? exactly). Braves hitting much better than the Mets, and Smoltz has been brilliant lately.


Orioles (Guthrie) +120 (WSEX), 100 to win 120

I think the wrong team is favored in this one, even with the White Sox playing at home. Orioles hitters own Contreras. Guthrie pitches well on the road, and very well in day games. Take the plus number.


NBA

Spurs ML +150 (WSEX), 50 to win 75

Over the last five years, seven teams have gone into Game 4 at home down 0-3 in a first-round series. Six out of seven times, that team lost Game 4 and got swept. Although the Suns are probably better than the average first-round sweep victim, I'm taking the nice number and banking on the Spurs desire to end this series quickly to give themselves time to rest up for the Jazz in the second round.


Hornets +5.5 (Matchbook), 55 to win 50

I know the home team is consisently winning in this matchup, but the Mavs never seemed to put the game away in Game 3 until the very end. In a very even matchup, without the urgency of avoiding going down 0-3 that the Mavs had in the last game, I think the Hornets can at least stay within this number, if not win outright.

Saturday, In The Park

I think it was the 4th of July. You're lucky you only had to read that and not hear me sing it. On to the picks:

MLB

Astros +112 (WSEX), 100 to win 112

Oswalt as an underdog again. Astros against a righty. Not much to think about here.


Giants +107 (Matchbook), 100 to win 107

Very quietly, the Giants are putting together a nice stable of young arms - Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, and today, Correia. Happy to go against Belisle tonight.


NBA

Raptors -3 (WSEX), 55 to win 50

Toronto didn't put Calderon in the starting lineup after all. They're probably trying to pump up Ford's trade value. That's the only reason I can think of. Otherwise, they're just stupidly stubborn. Either way, going small-ball with Moon starting instead of Nesterovic put some life into the offense, and I think that carries over into this afternoon's game. Magic not yet elite enough or experienced enough to overcome the Raptors' homecourt advantage today.

Friday Night Educated Guesses

Grover is away from computers for a few days, so this weekend all the blame or glory (usually blame) falls on me. I told him to prepare himself for the prospect of a blog record of -800 or so when he returns. On to the picks:

MLB

The Yankees game was going as planned last night, with the Yanks and Hughes taking a 3-0 lead in the top of the 3rd. Unfortunately, it started raining right about then, and when the game resumed, there was some chump named Ohlendorf on the mound for the Yanks. Mr. Ohlendorf then proceeded to give up 78 hits in a row, with Girardi sitting on his hands in the dugout, apparently unaware that the rules actually allow you to substitute another pitcher. Then, after the Yankees catch back up, Joba Chamberlain takes the loss in the 9th inning (let's hear you talk some shit now, Hank.). A frustrating game. On to tonight:


Diamondbacks (Johnson) +104 (Matchbook), 100 to win 104

I'm still not believing the hype on Randy Wolf. The BABIP numbers show he's been slightly lucky this year, and he's had the good fortune to pitch two of his starts in spacious Petco Park and one other against the light-hitting Giants. In his only other start, he gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings to tonight's opponent, the D-Backs. Padres are hitting a dreadful .168 versus lefties so far this year. I want the Big Unit tonight. Wait, that didn't sound right......


Giants (Sanchez) +133 (Matchbook), 100 to win 133

Break up the Giants! They've won two in a row - next stop, World Series! OK, I'm going a little overboard, and I'm still kicking myself for not playing Lincecum last night after thinking about it all day. But, after Sanchez's horrible performance in his first start, he has been phenomenal in his last three, with an ERA of 1.69 and WHIP of 1.19 in those games. I like Harang (heck, he's on my fantasy team), but I'm taking the home underdog in a game which looks like a very close, low-scoring affair.

NBA

After writing the post below about teams in the must-win Game 3 situation, you should have expected to see me playing a couple of them.

Mavericks -6 (WSEX), 110 to win 100

Suns -6.5 (WSEX), 55 to win 50