Friday, March 6, 2009

Friday Afternoon From the Colonial

I guess it wasn't so sad to just play one long-shot hockey pick yesterday since it ended up winning. Conference tournaments really getting going today, and we're going to get an afternoon game (2:20 PM Eastern) in now:

UNC-Wilmington +7.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit

I understand why Hofstra is getting the public love, because Hofstra's straight-up win/loss record is 20-10 (and they're the #5 seed) and UNC-W's is 7-24 (#12 seed), and that's all that a lot of people look at. But, these teams have played twice recently and both games ended virtually even (the game at Hofstra went to overtime, and Hofstra won in Wilmington by only 2 points), and now on a neutral floor Hofstra is supposed to beat them handily? Doesn't add up. If you were just picking the straight-up winner, then maybe you should look at the discrepancies in the straight-up win/loss records given above, but if you're betting against the spread, maybe you'd be better off looking at their ATS performance (Hofstra 12-14, UNC-W 13-12). Right? Or maybe you could see close to 70% of the bets coming in on Hofstra, and then watch the line going the other way (dropped from Hofstra -8 to -7.5), and think maybe somebody out there who knows more than you and has more time on their hands to figure these things out (sportsbooks, professional gamblers) might just be on to something. Important tip for the conference tournaments: make sure you know where the game is being played, because the team listed on the bottom is not necessarily playing at home due to neutral sites. If this line moves any more, it will go lower. Good luck everybody.


Steve in Pgh said...

Im riding the Seahawks with ya

Sham said...

Even though it lost, that was a good look. Hofstra isn't near as good as their record would indicate.

Hambone said...

Yeah, I think I would have made that pick every time. Ball doesn't always bounce our way.