Thursday Sweet 16

Holy crap, I think we made money on hoops picks last night. Can't remember the last time that happened. Just one for tonight:

Purdue +6.5 +103, 2 units to win 2.06 units

If this loses by 7, I'll be a little upset, but the half-point calculator says that this line is superior to +7 -108 (the other option at Matchbook), so we're going this way. I haven't heard anybody saying much about Purdue this week, after they barely squeaked by their opponents, but everybody on the ESPN was raving about how UConn dominated their first 2 opponents. Of course, nobody takes the time to discuss how Purdue's opponents were much better than the teams that UConn got to face. Pomeroy's predictions haven't fared so well up to this point (I know, small sample size), but it's still a useful tool for comparing teams statistically, and Pomeroy's system says that UConn wins this game by only 5. That's even better support for Purdue than it looks, as pointed out to me in an e-mail from Grover, when you consider that Pomeroy's ratings for UConn include all of the games that Dyson played, and he won't be there tonight, and on the flipside, Purdue's ratings include all of the games when Hummel was out with an injury but he will be playing tonight. So, the numbers may be overrating UConn and underrating Purdue tonight, which sounds good when you've got the underdog. We can't quantify what the effect might be of all the UConn sanction talk might be, but it's possible that this could serve as a further distraction. Go Boilermakers.