Lords Of The Dance

The Big Dance starts Thursday, and we're playing 3 games for opening day.

BYU -2.5 -110, 2.2 units to win 2 units

The Mountain West probably sounds like a league of chumps to the general public, but there were several good/decent teams in that conference this year - BYU, Utah, San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming. So, I don't think BYU's statistical edge in virtually every important category (FG%, FG% allowed, 3pt% & allowed, FT%, assist/turnover ratios, etc.) should be disregarded. A&M rebounds a little better, but that's about it. BYU better offensively and especially defensively. Pomeroy has them winning by 6 points, Sagarin by 4. This is not one of our usual anti-public plays, as the consensus only slightly favors Texas A & M (consensus couldn't be too high as A&M is not only the underdog but also the lower seed), but the line has already moved from -2 to -2.5 as of Wednesday.

Minnesota +4 +101, 2 units to win 2.02 units

The Big Ten is also a conference that has been getting bashed in the media for underperforming, but Pomeroy has that conference ranked 5th overall which is only 1 worse than the Big 12 (home of Minnesota's opponent, Texas). Texas better offensively, while the Gophers have the edge on D. Big public support for Texas (71% at wagerline), but the line has either held steady at 4.5 or dropped to 4 at some books (like Matchbook, where we got our line). Pomeroy has Texas by 1, and Sagarin has it even closer than that. Sold.

American +16.5 +108, 2 units to win 2.16 units

Grover likes it. Pomeroy likes it. Sagarin likes it. And I've just heard the 34th ESPN analyst this week suggest that Villanova has a free pass to the Sweet 16 because they get to play in Philadelphia. The love for Nova is really getting out of control, but the line has been dropping this week rather than going higher. American shoots pretty well, and if they can hit a decent percentage today, they should be able to stay within this big number.

I went out to a bar tonight instead of staying home and typing the explanations for these. Hopefully, I'll wake up early enough tomorrow to get a few sentences in about each of these, but we wanted to go ahead and lock in the lines now since all of them appear to have moved a little already.

*Explanations added Thursday morning. Good luck everybody.