Waiting for This Week to End

Things just aren't going our way this week. Two baseball picks for tonight, lines from Matchbook, each risking 1 unit:

Arizona Diamondbacks +102

Suppan is horrible. I'm always skeptical of the D-Backs' ability to hit the ball, but against this guy, they have a great chance to prove me wrong. Brewers hitters aren't anything special against righties, and Scherzer is very talented.

San Diego Padres +141

Geer is no prize, but McDonald has looked terrible so far. More walks than strikeouts, and his WHIP of 1.66 is pathetic for a pitcher whose BABIP is only .232. Over 70% of the public is on the Dodgers, as expected (Manny-Mania!).

....If You Want To Be With Me

Still stuck at the office without my notes, so just one more for tonight:

Astros +143 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.43 units

Paulino pitching really well in a very small sample size. Volquez has been wild. I just looked at fangraphs, and Volquez's BB/9 so far is 8.85 which is horrendous.

Gotta have a J-O-B

Hambone and I both on our way to work obligations, so it's a drive-by posting for the afernoon games.

Seattle Mariners -113 (Matchbook), 1.13 units to win 1 unit.

Mariners were my favorite team to fade last year, they're my favorite team to play this year.

A National Joke

Once again, there's only one baseball pick that we've agreed on:

Nationals +172 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.72 units

Hamels has pitched better than his ERA (9.69) would lead you to believe, but Lannan has been solid, and if you're ever going to put hard-earned money behind the horrendously awful Washington Nationals, you're better off getting them when they're facing a lefty. That's a hell of an endorsement, I know.

Just One

Didn't have time to do my homework last night after getting in from out of town, so just one baseball pick for Monday:

Indians -117 (Matchbook), 1.17 units to win 1 unit

The combination of the Red Sox's weekend sweep of the Yanks and Cliff Lee's BABIP-inflated ERA makes me think there has to be value with the Indians tonight.

Good luck everybody.

Saturday Action

Getting ready to leave town until tomorrow night, so putting them all in now. Three MLB picks and one NBA pick for Saturday:

MLB

Nationals +173 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.73 units

Two pitchers who have been awful, and Cabrera's inability to strike hitters out (formerly, his only redeeming quality) is a concern. But, with crap on the mound for both sides, we'll take a chance with the +173.

Rockies -123 (WSEX), 1.23 units to win 1 unit

We liked Ubaldo coming into the season, and although the walks are troubling, some of the hits have just been bad luck. Still, his strikeout rate has been high, and his opponent's WHIP of 1.70 is even worse than it looks (BABIP = .254). Public on the Dodgers as usual.

Giants +119 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.19 units

Two days in a row on the Giants doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for success. Randy Johnson may not be the has-been people seem to think he is. His strikeout rate is still exceptional and Scherzer has not been as impressive as we thought he would be this season so far.

NBA

Jazz +4 +107 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.07 units

If this season has taught you anything, it is that you are probably better off going the opposite way of any basketball picks. Conventional wisdom seems to be that the mighty Lakers couldn't possibly lose 2 in a row to the #8 seed, and we're always looking to go against such thinking.

Friday Night Favorites

I can't remember the last time we played two favorites on the same night, but it is what is. Baseball picks for tonight, each to win 1 unit:

Giants -120 (WSEX)

A really short number for Lincecum, which gave me pause at first, but public isn't jumping on board the Giants and the number keeps rising. Doug Davis doesn't belong in the same ballpark with Lincecum, but his 2.57 ERA is probably giving us a little value here compared to Lincecum's 3.86. That's not a bad number for most pitchers, but Lincecum's .438 BABIP has his ERA artificially high at the start of the season. The D-Backs can't even hit the ball coming out of the hands of average pitchers, so expect double-digit strikeouts for Lincecum tonight.

Mariners -117 (Matchbook)

If you order a "Loux" in France, they bring you a shit sandwich. Yes, I'm multi-lingual.

Probably passing on the other sports tonight. Good luck everybody.

Afternoon Games and a Happy Jazzfest to All

I'm off to the Big Easy, so this is it for me until Tuesday. I leave you in Hambone's capable hands. I trust he'll wash them for you after changing diapers all day. Enjoy the weekend and the NFL Draft and all that stuff.

Both afternoon game lines are from Matchbook:

Milwaukee Brewers +156, 1 unit to win 1.56 units.

Something about Hamels doesn't look right this year. Of course, people seem to ignore little stuff like that when a team has "World Series Champions" next to their name. But the smart bettors ignore the "World Series Champions" next to a team's name and look at which team they think is gonna score more runs that day. We like Braun to tee off on the lefty Hamels for a big day today. Don't bet on that, though. Just bet on the game.

Cincinnati Reds +157, 1 unit to win 1.57 units.

Man, we hate betting on Dusty Baker teams. Willy Taveras leading off? Really? Seriosuly, if you know the guy, do him, us, and the fine citizens of Cincinnati a favor: take him aside and gently tell him that the game has passed him by.

However, we do like Aaron Harang. Don't know what was wrong with that guy last year, but it's starting to look like it was nothing more than a hiccup in a stellar career. He's sporting a monstrous ERA+ of 171 this year. Sure, the good but overrated Zambrano is on the mound for the Cubs, but +157 is an awfully juicy number for a guy with an ERA+ of 171. We don't think we could live with ourselves if we passed on that.

Wednesday Night

Running late as usual. Grover had some spoiled Purple Drank last night and was out of action for most of the day. The picks, all risking one unit:

MLB

Detroit Tigers +100 (WSEX)

Washington Nationals +121 (Matchbook)

Both Verlander (Tigers) and Lannan (Nats) are pitching much better than their ERAs would suggest, which has created value in those lines tonight.

NBA

New Orleans Hornets +6 +101 (Matchbook)

The Pistons needed just one more point last night to cover, but couldn't come through. Public likes the Nuggets to cover tonight, but we're not sold.

Good luck everybody.

Post-Quickie Cigarette

One more, from the NBA:

Pistons +11.5 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units

Everybody loves Lebron. We'll go the other way. Business as usual.

Tuesday Night Quickie

We're not lazy. Well, maybe a little. But really, there's only been two games we've liked over the last two days, and we just haven't had a lot to say about them. Here's tonight's special:

Oakland A's +187 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.87 units.

I'm not sure how many different ways there are to say that the Yankees are mediocre on offense without A-Rod in the lineup. I think this is the fourth time I've said it here. But if people want to keep giving quality ballclubs numbers like +187 against this relatively weak Yankees lineup and the Yanks' aging, presumably no longer cheating #4 starter, we'll keep playing them.

It's starting to sound like A-Rod's on his way back, at which time the Yankees might start to resemble the team people think they are. So get on the gravy train now, while the getting's good.

Monday Night Quickie

Just one for Monday night:

Nationals +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units

Nats sending their #1 prospect, Jordan Zimmerman, to the mound tonight. Against Derek Lowe, we expected a much higher number. The low number, plus the fact that it's even dropped a little despite big public betting support for the Braves, reinforces our belief that the books like Zimmerman tonight.

Sunday Action

Battery dying on my laptop, so doing these all together:

MLB

Royals +132, 1 unit to win 1.32 units

Is anybody pitching better than Kyle Davies right now? And it's not even a phony BABIP-influenced performance, he's been genuinely awesome.

Rockies +111, 1 unit to win 1.11 units

We still like Ubaldo and the Rockies offense.

NHL

Anaheim +226, 0.5 units to win 1.13 units

Seriously, you're going to give us this line and 70% of wagerline is on San Jose? "Dude, there is no freaking way the Sharks lose the first 2 games at home!" Yeah, ask the Caps about that (sorry, Grover). Anaheim is a good road team this year, they have the better goalie, and are pretty close offensively. Not a team that should be getting +226.

Good luck everybody.

Saturday Afternoon Picks

Headed out for family activities, so two for the afternoon quickly:

MLB

Brewers +167, 1 unit to win 1.67 units

Gallardo vs. Johan. Santana's not exactly known for coming into the early season ready to go, so April is always a good time to fade him when the number is good (and it almost always is). The Milwaukee lineup sets up very nicely versus lefties, with Fielder the only significant hitter who struggles against southpaws (and he's 3/6 vs. Santana - extremely small sample size, I know, I know). Gallardo's strikeout rate is actually projected (CHONE) to be higher than Santana this season.

NBA

Detroit Pistons +12 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units

We've had a lousy basketball season this year, so feel free to ignore, but fading Lebron just feels like the right thing to do.

Back later if we have time. Good luck everybody.

NBA Playoffs Series Picks and Future

Luckily, others who are smarter than me (especially at math) have done all of the heavy lifting already. The picks:

Orlando Magic to win the NBA Championship +1500 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 15 units

Looking at all of the same calculations as our friend over at Numbers Don't Lie...Sometimes, this longshot has a lot of value. There's talk out there (looking at you, ESPN commentators) about injuries to Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu, but they sound rather minor and I don't expect either to miss any time. The +1500 translates to a 6.25% chance of winning, and all three of the calculations over at Numbers Don't Lie give the Magic a better statistical chance than that ranging from the lowest number from xlssports (9.31%) to the probably over-optimistic number (13.3%) from ESPN's John Hollinger. If any of the math is even close, this is best Championship future available. Not to mention KG's injury, which probably bumps up the chances at least a little bit for everybody else to get to the Finals out of the East.

First Round Series Picks

Atlanta Hawks -141 (Matchbook) to advance to 2nd round, 4.23 units to win 3 units

Xlssports is the only one of the 3 sources cited above that broke down the chances of teams advancing past the first round, so we're going to use those numbers in putting together the series picks for the first round (they better be close, Erich!). The -141 would correlate to a 58.51% chance of winning, but the numbers have the Hawks winning 70.28% of the time. Even with Dwyane Wade getting the benefit of the doubt on every whistle, there's still a lot of value there. And, yes, that's how Wade's momma spelled his first name.

New Orleans Hornets +196 (Matchbook) to advance to the 2nd round, 2 units to win 3.92 units

Same idea here - the line reflects a 33.78% chance of winning, and Erich's numbers give them a 44% chance to advance. Nice.

Utah Jazz +1850 (Matchbook) to advance to the 2nd round, 0.5 units to win 9.25 units

Yes, a huge longshot and we'll almost certainly be looking for a spot to hedge at some point, but the numbers are what they are. +1850 = 5.13% to win the series and the xls numbers give the Jazz a 21.13% chance of advancing. Even if that number is wildly optimistic, there's a ton of value here. Looking at Hollinger's odds to make the finals, the Lakers come in at 34.6% and the Jazz 3.1% which puts the Lakers chances only about 10 times better to win the West than the Jazz, so getting 18.5-1 is hard to resist. And Lakers fans, please spare us the "Bynum's back!" sentiment, because although it's true that the Lakers numbers include a lot of games when Bynum didn't play, the Jazz numbers also include a lot of games where Deron Williams and/or Carlos Boozer didn't play. Williams much more important to the Jazz than Bynum is to the Lakers, and although Bynum has had a couple of good half-seasons, his body of work doesn't compare with Boozer's. We don't think this one is going to win, but it's the right thing to do, and like I said earlier, might give us a good chance to hedge at some point.

Considered Spurs to win the Western Conference at +1100 based on the numbers, but I can't quantify the effect of the Ginobli injury, so we're going to pass. I wrote out the full names of the teams to help frequent reader Phillip, who is annoyed by having to constantly search the internet trying to find out what city the "Hawks" or "Hornets" might be in so he can get his bets in. I think Phillip has a problem....

Throwing Good Money After Bad

One NHL playoffs pick for Friday night:

Philadelphia Flyers +164 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.82 units

Same thinking as Wednesday night. I have these two teams virtually even, so this looks like a good number to me, especially with the public all over Sid the Kid.

NBA playoff picks probably won't be posted until late tonight or early Saturday morning, so check back for picks you can fade.

Friday Baseball, or Why Do People Still Think Derek Jeter Is More Valuable than A-Rod

Getting the baseball out of the way early to clear space for the Hambone NBA Playoff Spectacular. I even taught him to do basic addition and division yesterday so he could really fine-tune his picks. Today's baseball plays, all from Matchbook:

Cleveland Indians +194, .5 units to win .97 units.

This line makes slightly more sense than yesterday's joke of a line, because at least the Indians aren't starting last year's Cy Young winner today. But this still has to be inflated by some irrational belief that the new stadium is gonna spur the Yankees to new heights. I actually like Joba a lot and think he's heading for great things (thus the .5 unit play). But PECOTA, which loves the Yankees to the tune of expecting 99 wins, projects this team to be only the 5th best offense in the AL ... and that's with A-Rod in the mix. He's not playing today, is he? No? Well without him, this is a mediocre offense, even when the Teixiera is raking. Which he's not. I don't care if Derek Jeter cured cancer, wrote the Great American Novel, and impregnated your little sister just by looking in her general direction. Without A-Rod, they're nothing special.


Cincinnati Reds +140, 1 unit to win 1.4 units.

I think we're gonna be fading the Astros against the rest of the NL Central a lot these first two months. Two great pitchers on the hill today. There's no way that Oswalt is so much better than Cueto that it justifies this line, especially when you look at that Astros lineup trying to give him run support.


Detroit Tigers +116, 1 unit to win 1.16 units.

PECOTA says Verlander bounces back and has a decent year this year, and puts up numbers close enough to those of King Felix to create value here, with the Tigers clearly being the better offensive team. Do I buy it? Not sure. But I learned a long time ago that the best way to make money in this game is to avoid overthinking and instead worship at the altar of PECOTA.

I'm Confused

WSEX has the following series odds listed for the first round:

BB 95 4/19 (F) CHARLOTTE VS DENVER (BEST OF SEVEN GAMES) (10:35 pm ET)
Outcome Money Line
CHARLOTTE +200
DENVER -250

I liked Charlotte's matchup advantages in this series at first glance, but then I realized that Charlotte wasn't actually in the playoffs, so I'd have to lean Denver. When did they start doing interconference playoff brackets?

Another thought: Did the Bulls lose that home game vs. Toronto last night on purpose? If they had won, they would be the 6 seed and face Orlando in the first round. But, by losing, they fell to #7 and face the apparently KG-less Celtics. I think Garnett lived in Chicago at some point in high school, so maybe some old friends leaked the injury story to the Bulls, who then took a dive against the Raptors? Probably not, but everybody loves a good conspiracy theory.

And, NO, I am not going to say anything to jinx what's going on in Yankee Stadium right now. Not going to do it.

Bronx Cheers

Today's afternoon play:

Cleveland Indians +202 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2.02 units.

That number is just absurd. Sure, Cliff Lee has struggled so far this year. Sure, the Yankees are the better team. Sure, Sabathia was great last time out. But consider the other side of this equation. A-Rod is still out, and this team is, frankly, pretty bad offensively without him. The only difference between your preception of Cliff Lee and of CC Sabathia is that Lee opened this season with two ugly starts, whereas Sabathia only had one. Lee still has the better K/BB ratio on the year. I just don't see this is a 2/1 type game. +150, maybe, but this number makes absolutely no sense. Indeed, the Indians were +180 as recently as 8 AM.

Usually we stay away from numbers that are this out of whack, because of concern that something we don't know about is going on with the game. But here the reason for the line move seems obvious- legions of Yankee backers who think "dere's no friggin' way Da Yanks are gonna lose dere first game at da new joint!" We love fading people like that.

Wakefield Making Us Look Silly

No-hitter through 7 innings so far. Of course. Three more baseball picks for Wednesday night:

Padres +174, 1 unit to win 1.74 units

Grover says we take +174 with anybody against Oliver Perez. Easy decision.

Reds +128, 1 unit to win 1.28 units

Public loves Looper. We like Owings.

Giants +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units

Kershaw getting a lot of press lately, but he's not better than Cain. Really good number for the dog here.

Good luck everybody.

Tax Day Hockey Playoff Pick & Afternoon Baseball

Trying to get my taxes done, so let me spit these out quickly:

NHL

Flyers +150, 0.5 units to win 0.75 units

I actually think Philadelphia is the slightly better team in this matchup - at worst, they're even. However, Philly doesn't have a Sidney Crosby, so we're the beneficiaries of this juicy line in Game 1. Nice.

MLB

A's +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Public loves the Sox as usual, but the line has gone the other way slightly. Wakefield isn't fooling anybody with the knuckleball anymore - although some of the sample sizes (career at-bats) are small, it's clear that the hitters in Oakland's lineup aren't baffled by the knuckler. A pretty close matchup, we'll take the home dog.

A few more baseball picks emerging for tonight, but I'll have to come back later. The IRS awaits....

NHL Playoff Futures

Hockey playoffs get started Wednesday night. Futures picks for both the Stanley Cup and just the first round:

Chicago Blackhawks to win the Stanley Cup +1600 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 16 units

Lazily and shamelessly, we sat back and let our friend over at Numbers Don't Lie put the math together on this one. I'm not the math whiz that he is, but if the Hawks are 9-1 to win the Cup and Matchbook is paying 16-1, that's incredible value right there and we're on board. Excellent find by the guy who likes numbers.

St. Louis to advance to the second round +196 (Matchbook), 2 units to win 3.92 units

Maybe Vancouver is a little better (maybe), but I don't think they're 2-1 better over a series which is what this line would suggest. Blues have been better on the power play and killing penalties, and are pretty much equal in goal (Canucks' Luongo's save percentage is .919, Blues' Mason's is .916). I'm not counting on Paul Kariya coming back 100% for this series, but anything he can add would just be gravy on top.

Rangers to advance to the second round +190 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.9 units

Does defense win championships? This series will be a good test of that theory, because the Rangers are fantastic defensively - the best penalty killing team in the league and much better in goal than Washington - but no match for the Capitals offensively. This line is +160 or +170 at some books, so I was happy to find the +190 at good ol' WSEX.

Considered Philadelphia to win their first series as well, but I decided to just play the individual games in their series with Pittsburgh. In my completely uneducated hockey opinion, there's virtually no difference between those two teams (except that Philly is the better power play squad), but the recreational bettor has heard about Sidney Crosby a million times on Sportscenter and the public should be overvaluing the Penguins as a result.

Tuesday Night Bases, Quickly

Nothing that has us cutting backflips or anything, but 4 for tonight that we like enough to pick. Lines from Matchbook, all risking 1 unit:

Mariners +102

Carlos Silva is terrible, that's a given. But, Loux projects to be even worse. With the one of the most overrated teams (Angels) facing one of the most underrated, we'll go with the home dog.

Reds +126

A total coin-flip. We'll go with the dog.

Diamondbacks +123

Carpenter getting a lot of love after his great start in his last game. Scherzer is no slouch himself, but is not as widely known. Another home dog for the good guys.

A's +130

The compulsory Dice-K fade. Business as usual.

Hopefully back tonight with some thoughts on the first round of the hockey playoffs.

Monday Night Baseball

One more:

Diamondbacks +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units

Grover is much higher on the D-Backs this year than I am (I'm still dubious of the offense), but with this game looking like a coin-flip, we'll take the home team as the slgith dog.

NHL Playoff lines are coming out. Considering series bets on the Rangers and Blues, possibly Hurricanes or Flyers. If anybody out there has actually watched a hockey game before (I haven't) and has thoughts, we're happy to listen. Good luck everybody.

Opening Day, Part Deux

Afternoon picks before I leave for Nats Park.

Colorado Rockies +121 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.21 units.

We think big things are in store for Ubaldo Jiminez this year. The Cubs' strong start and win on national TV last night creates value here even though the Rockies very clearly have the better of the pitching matchup. This one's a no-brainer.*

* In this context, no-brainer means there's value, not that the pick is a guaranteed winner. Of course, if you didn't know that already, you are probably better served at the covers.com forums.

Washington Nationals +110 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.1 units.

I'm bringing my giant flash to the stadium, like the one the guy in the BW-3 commerical uses to send the basketball game into overtime at the request of the patrons. I'll get a win today for us, and for the Nats, even if it means I'm banned for life from MLB ballparks.

Actually, I think we're gonna be fading the Phillies a lot this year. Their World Series win and the talent at the front of their order has created the mistaken impression that they are now among the game's elite. They are not. PECOTA forecasts 87 wins and a third-place finish in the East. But as long as people keep thinking that the Phillies are a 95-win team, we'll keep fading them. Even when they're playing the Nats. Ugh.

Sunday Baseball

It's not a pretty card today. We're playing three of the league's bottomfeeders. It is not a card for the weak of heart or stomach.

Florida Marlins +130 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.3 units.

Mets are getting most of the action with Santana on the hill, but the line is moving the other way. The Marlins starter, Josh Johnson, is no slouch either. With the Marlins playing well and at home with a quality starter, this number looks like value.


Washington Nationals +175 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.75 units.

The Nats' losing streak creates the value here. Squares love to bet streaks. This is not a team playing well, and they have the lesser of the two starters here by a bit with Olsen going up against Jurrjens, but this number is too high to pass up for a team that's not as bad as their record suggests. Not good, but not as bad as the record suggests.


Houston Astros +122 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.2 units.

I am not an Astros fan this year, but we like them today with Wandy on the hill against a not particularly good Lohse.

Rolling Along

Just like yesterday, we couldn't agree on anything among the afternoon games, but found two night games we liked.

Brewers +120 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.20 units

The always overrated Zambrano brings his bat-breaking act to Milwaukee. Public all over the Cubs, but expect Braun and Fielder to make the difference in this one.

Giants +159 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.59 units

My memory is that we had success last year backing the young lefty Giants starter, Jonathan Sanchez, but casual bettors have still probably never heard of him. Padres always get a little higher line than they should when Peavy is on the mound, but with no offense and a shaky defense behind him, Peavy just can't do it by himself all the time. Good number for us in this one.

Back tomorrow. Good luck everybody.

Friday Night Baseball

Nothing made the cut for the afternoon (Bluejays was the only one that was close), but we agreed on 2 for tonight:

Twins +140, 1 unit to win 1.40 units

This is not a game I'd be looking forward to watching. Both pitchers are equally awful so getting +140 on either side looks like value to us, and the 66% of wagerliners on the White Sox makes it look even better. Like the old saying goes, "When betting on a shit-eating contest, you might as well go with the underdog." That's a saying, right?

Mariners +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units

After last year's well-known disappointment, the Mariners will likely continue to be underrated for a while, which is good for those of us paying attention. The Griffey signing might not make much difference, but defensive improvements like Gutierrez and Chavez in the outfield are really going to help this team. The CHONE projections on Oakland's starter, Brett Anderson, aren't terrible, but he's not as good as Rowland-Smith (at least, not yet). Another good number to take a stab at.

That's it for today. I tried to talk Grover into Mike Hampton, if only for the humor value, but he wouldn't go for it. When his arm falls completely off of his body in the 2nd inning, you'll know that Grover is the smart one. Considered the Nats also, as always it seems, but ultimately passed. The McDonald kid starting for the Dodgers tonight was an interesting thought as a favorite over suck-ass Jon Garland, but we're going to stick with these two. Good luck everybody.

Thursday Afternoon

I wanted to take a good look at some head-to-head Masters matchups, but the Passover festivities got in the way. So we only have baseball plays for your enjoyment this fine Thursday afternoon. Hambone kindly sent me the lines before he left his desk for the morning, but I don't have the sites that he got them from. I'll guess it's Matchbook, and hopefully he'll be back by lunch to add that.


Seattle Mariners +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units.

Washburn's not an AAO favorite, but we like the Mariners to finish the year about even with the Twins this year- you'll remember that we played the Mariners Over and the Twins Under- and PECOTA suggests that the Mariners clearly have the better of the Washburn-Perkins matchup today. All that and +115 is good enough for us.


Tampa Bay Rays +144, 1 unit to win 144 units.

I'll admit I'm surprised you can get this kind of value on the Rays this year. Is the conventional wisdom that last year was some sort of fluke? It was not. This is an ideal spot to play them, with the Rays' most underrated starter, Matt Garza, going against the Sox' most overrated starter, Dice-K. Dice-K kept burning us last year, seemingly walking two guys and then working his way out of the jam every single inning. He can't keep it up forever, can he? Can he? Please tell me he can't.

Happy Pesach!

Getting these in early to allow all the Jews out there to get their wagers in before the Seders begin. Remember: informed wagering is a mitzvah.

Atlanta Braves +100 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1 unit.

The Braves have the better starter by far (Vasquez over Blanton). I don't see much of a difference on the offensive end. Too much love for the defending champions here.


Pittsburgh Pirates +150 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.5 units.

I've been hearing a lot of positive predictions on the Cardinals over the last week for some reason. I don't buy it for a second. This team looks like one that will finish under .500, so a +150 line against them is value. Unless they're facing the top end of the Nats' rotation, apparently.


Oakland A's -110 (multiple sites), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

I hate betting against the local boy- Adenhart's from Silver Spring in beautiful Montgomery County, MD- and I also worry about the A's struggling against a guy they haven't seen much of. But I don't see anything in his profile that suggests to me that he's anything special. His walk rate was way too high in the minors, and PECOTA is not a fan, to say the least. Eveland's not the second coming of Johan Santana, but there's some value here.

So Far, Not So Good

Afternoon games not looking good (Royals were leading until late, which we should probably get used to saying). This is way too many games for the 3rd day of the season, but I don't have time to try and weed out a couple. For tonight, risking 1 unit on each:

Astros +109

Power and speed in the Houston lineup, they just can't put it together consistently. Line movement makes me think they can tonight.

Mariners -101

And the award for most unlikely to record a strikeout tonight goes to.....Nick Blackburn.

Rockies +143

The difference between Ubaldo and Haren is not as much as the 70%+ of bettors on the D-Backs might think.

A's +102

I don't know who this Cahill person is that's starting for Oakland tonight, so this must be the correct play. Everybody in the world is on the Angels, but the line keeps falling? Very fishy.

Actually, I did pass on one lean, the Nationals, so there's your guaranteed* winner. Probably not going to look at the NBA/NHL again until the playoffs start. Good luck everybody.

*guarantee will not be honored

So Far, So Good

A winning day yesterday, so we should probably quit now. Nope, we're not that smart. Two more for Tuesday afternoon, each risking 1 unit:

Royals +119

Like Meche over Buehrle here. Lineups pretty even going into this one, but the public likes the White Sox. Line moved the opposite way.

Rays +143

Pretty much a coin-flip here, except that we're getting +143 on one side. Nice.

Not much time to go into more detail today. Back later with any games for tonights.

It Begins - Monday Afternoon Baseball

Finally. Two for the 4 PM Eastern hour, lines from Matchbook, risking 1 unit on each:

Nationals +154

Pirates +172

Very busy today, but if I can find some time later, I might come back and add in some explanation for those. Good luck everybody.

Passing Saturday

Lean to Michigan State and UNC Under, but not going to officially pick either of those. Good luck to everybody who's getting involved.

Baseball Win Total Bets

It's about damn time, right?

OK, for some reason they won't let me take a sick day to do these, so the conversation will be relatively brief. Methodology- I looked at PECOTA first to come up with some possibilities, and then looked at the CHONE and Diamond Mind numbers for a second and third opinion. I believe every pick here is one that all three projection systems agree on. By the way, the Diamond Mind projections incorporate the PECOTA and CHONE numbers and run them with several others, including CAIRO and Hardball Times. If you want to look for yourself at projections but are pressed for time and don't have a particular love for one system (like I do with PECOTA), that is a great place to look.

One other thing- I can't say if the juice numbers are accurate because my work firewall blocks gambling sites. These numbers are from a few days ago, which is the last time I had a chance to look at home. I've asked Hambone to check this afternoon and update the numbers if necessary. Obviously if the juice is significantly different then what I post here, you shouldn't play it. Use your best judgement.

Atlanta Braves Over 83.5 -115 (BetUS), 3.45 Units to win 3 units.

Amazingly consistent projections from the three systems. CHONE says 86, Diamond Mind 86.7, and PECOTA 87. I assume it's the Braves' record last year that's holding the lines back, because it's not like this is a franchise with a tradition of losing. Ownership has shown a willingness to make a move and spend some dough if they've got a shot at the playoffs, which I suspect they do. The pitching staff is approaching AARP eligibility, but they've got young talent like Campillo and Jurrjens to back it up if the injury bug or Alzheimer's strikes guys like Lowe, Glavine and Vasquez.


Baltimore Orioles Over 73.5 +110 (Greek), 2 units to win 2.2 units.

I'm somewhat iffy on this one. All three projection services are barely above this number. I only like it because of the +110 number I saw for it last time I checked the Greek. A positive number plus all three services projecting 74-75 wins is value, plain and simple. But if you can't get the +110 any more, stay away from this one. The fan base is gonna be screaming for a Wieters callup by the end of the month, which certainly will help matters.


Chicago White Sox Under 78.5 -120 (WSEX), 2.4 units to win 2 units.

Wow, these guys are old. Old old old. My grandfather used to sit me on his lap and tell me stories about watching Jose Contreras pitch to the Babe. Jim Thome wears an onion on his belt. He can't get the white ones, on account of the war, so he has to wear the big yellow ones. Last week Jermaine Dye told at me and my friends to get the hell off his lawn. You get the picture. All three projections are under this number. PECOTA is the highest, at 76.


Florida Marlins Under 76.5 -130 (WSEX), 3.9 units to win 3 units.

I don't have a lot to add here. Florida has a lot of young, highly-touted prospects like Maybin and Volstead. But the team's not quite ready for prime time yet. The projections have them between 71 and 72.5. Of course, it's possible that their legendary raucous home crowds will lift them to a couple extra wins, so be wary of that.


Seattle Mariners Over 72.5 -125 (Greek), 3.75 units to win 3 units.

See how we're switching it up on them? The books go high on the Mariners in 2008, so we go low! And then when they go low, we go high! We're coming at them like a spider monkey. They'll never know what hit 'em.

In case you prefer a little more analysis before you put your hard-earned money down, PECOTA's got them at 77, CHONE at 78, and Diamond Mind at 77.8. Just imagine how this team would look with Adam Jones in the outfield, George Sherrill in the bullpen, and Chris Tillman waiting in the wings to spearhead the rotation.

I'm sorry, Seattle. That was mean. Bill Bavasi is gone. He won't ever haunt your nightmares again. I promise.


Toronto Blue Jays Under 79.5 -140 (WSEX), 2.8 units to win 2 units.

In keeping with Canadian tradition, this discussion will be devoid of anything interesting or colorful. PECOTA says 76, CHONE says 75, Diamond Mind says 75.6. the win total was 80.5 elsewhere, which looks really good, but the line was -190 or thereabouts, which is just too damn expensive.


And now we get to the two big ones. They're both unders. I'm quite the Negative Nancy this year ...


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Under 89.5 -130 (BetUS), 5.2 units to win 4 units.

CHONE and Diamond Mind have them in the 85 range. If PECOTA was the same this would be a 2 unit play. But PECOTA says 81. And PECOTA is my sun and my moon. I follow Nate Silver around with a copy of Excel and try to get him to sign it. This line might have moved with the news about Lackey getting increasingly negative, so make sure you're still getting decent value here before putting your entire tax refund on it like I did.

Minnesota Twins Under 83.5 -105 (BetUS), 5.25 units to win 5 units.

This one hurts, because the Minnesota Twins are everyone's Little Team That Could. The numbers guys usually love them, because their front office is well-run and incredibly efficient with their budget. And how can you root against a team that asked The Hold Steady to record a version of Take Me Out to the Ball Game for them? Unfortunately, the numbers just don't add up this year. CHONE and Diamond Mind say 79. PECOTA is even less generous, pegging the Twins for 76 wins. And making matters worse, Twins fans are gonna have to watch Matt Wieters replace Joe Mauer as the best young catcher in the history of anything ever. Looks like a sad summer in Minneapolis, which sucks because I'm guessing their winters aren't much fun either.

Finally, I'm not making any of these official plays, but as a public service to you, here are the other teams on which all three projections are on the same side as the win total lines by more than one game. For the most part, I didn't play them because there wasn't enough difference between the projections and the lines or because the juice was too high or a combination thereof. All of them are decent plays, and if I'm feeling saucy or if I find any number better than what I found last time I looked, I will play them and post them here later this weekend:

Houston Astros Under 74.5, Tampa Bay Rays Over 87.5, Washington Nationals Over 71.5.

Wednesday Night Basketball

A couple of guesses for tonight:

College Basketball

UTEP -9 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit

This is just too goofy to pass up. Game #2 in the CBI best-2-out-of-3 finals series. Oregon State won by 6 Monday night at home, and now UTEP is favored to win by nearly double-digits in El Paso? Hilarious.

NBA

Bucks +6.5 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units

The books seem to think the Redd-less Bucks can hang close with the Lakers tonight, but the people aren't buying it. Maybe it's a revenge thing for losing Kareem.

Good luck everybody.