NBA Playoffs Series Picks and Future

Luckily, others who are smarter than me (especially at math) have done all of the heavy lifting already. The picks:

Orlando Magic to win the NBA Championship +1500 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 15 units

Looking at all of the same calculations as our friend over at Numbers Don't Lie...Sometimes, this longshot has a lot of value. There's talk out there (looking at you, ESPN commentators) about injuries to Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu, but they sound rather minor and I don't expect either to miss any time. The +1500 translates to a 6.25% chance of winning, and all three of the calculations over at Numbers Don't Lie give the Magic a better statistical chance than that ranging from the lowest number from xlssports (9.31%) to the probably over-optimistic number (13.3%) from ESPN's John Hollinger. If any of the math is even close, this is best Championship future available. Not to mention KG's injury, which probably bumps up the chances at least a little bit for everybody else to get to the Finals out of the East.

First Round Series Picks

Atlanta Hawks -141 (Matchbook) to advance to 2nd round, 4.23 units to win 3 units

Xlssports is the only one of the 3 sources cited above that broke down the chances of teams advancing past the first round, so we're going to use those numbers in putting together the series picks for the first round (they better be close, Erich!). The -141 would correlate to a 58.51% chance of winning, but the numbers have the Hawks winning 70.28% of the time. Even with Dwyane Wade getting the benefit of the doubt on every whistle, there's still a lot of value there. And, yes, that's how Wade's momma spelled his first name.

New Orleans Hornets +196 (Matchbook) to advance to the 2nd round, 2 units to win 3.92 units

Same idea here - the line reflects a 33.78% chance of winning, and Erich's numbers give them a 44% chance to advance. Nice.

Utah Jazz +1850 (Matchbook) to advance to the 2nd round, 0.5 units to win 9.25 units

Yes, a huge longshot and we'll almost certainly be looking for a spot to hedge at some point, but the numbers are what they are. +1850 = 5.13% to win the series and the xls numbers give the Jazz a 21.13% chance of advancing. Even if that number is wildly optimistic, there's a ton of value here. Looking at Hollinger's odds to make the finals, the Lakers come in at 34.6% and the Jazz 3.1% which puts the Lakers chances only about 10 times better to win the West than the Jazz, so getting 18.5-1 is hard to resist. And Lakers fans, please spare us the "Bynum's back!" sentiment, because although it's true that the Lakers numbers include a lot of games when Bynum didn't play, the Jazz numbers also include a lot of games where Deron Williams and/or Carlos Boozer didn't play. Williams much more important to the Jazz than Bynum is to the Lakers, and although Bynum has had a couple of good half-seasons, his body of work doesn't compare with Boozer's. We don't think this one is going to win, but it's the right thing to do, and like I said earlier, might give us a good chance to hedge at some point.

Considered Spurs to win the Western Conference at +1100 based on the numbers, but I can't quantify the effect of the Ginobli injury, so we're going to pass. I wrote out the full names of the teams to help frequent reader Phillip, who is annoyed by having to constantly search the internet trying to find out what city the "Hawks" or "Hornets" might be in so he can get his bets in. I think Phillip has a problem....