Getting the baseball out of the way early to clear space for the Hambone NBA Playoff Spectacular. I even taught him to do basic addition and division yesterday so he could really fine-tune his picks. Today's baseball plays, all from Matchbook:
Cleveland Indians +194, .5 units to win .97 units.
This line makes slightly more sense than yesterday's joke of a line, because at least the Indians aren't starting last year's Cy Young winner today. But this still has to be inflated by some irrational belief that the new stadium is gonna spur the Yankees to new heights. I actually like Joba a lot and think he's heading for great things (thus the .5 unit play). But PECOTA, which loves the Yankees to the tune of expecting 99 wins, projects this team to be only the 5th best offense in the AL ... and that's with A-Rod in the mix. He's not playing today, is he? No? Well without him, this is a mediocre offense, even when the Teixiera is raking. Which he's not. I don't care if Derek Jeter cured cancer, wrote the Great American Novel, and impregnated your little sister just by looking in her general direction. Without A-Rod, they're nothing special.
Cincinnati Reds +140, 1 unit to win 1.4 units.
I think we're gonna be fading the Astros against the rest of the NL Central a lot these first two months. Two great pitchers on the hill today. There's no way that Oswalt is so much better than Cueto that it justifies this line, especially when you look at that Astros lineup trying to give him run support.
Detroit Tigers +116, 1 unit to win 1.16 units.
PECOTA says Verlander bounces back and has a decent year this year, and puts up numbers close enough to those of King Felix to create value here, with the Tigers clearly being the better offensive team. Do I buy it? Not sure. But I learned a long time ago that the best way to make money in this game is to avoid overthinking and instead worship at the altar of PECOTA.
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1 comment:
can't wait to see if you agree with my NBA picks
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