Baseball Win Total Bets

It's about damn time, right?

OK, for some reason they won't let me take a sick day to do these, so the conversation will be relatively brief. Methodology- I looked at PECOTA first to come up with some possibilities, and then looked at the CHONE and Diamond Mind numbers for a second and third opinion. I believe every pick here is one that all three projection systems agree on. By the way, the Diamond Mind projections incorporate the PECOTA and CHONE numbers and run them with several others, including CAIRO and Hardball Times. If you want to look for yourself at projections but are pressed for time and don't have a particular love for one system (like I do with PECOTA), that is a great place to look.

One other thing- I can't say if the juice numbers are accurate because my work firewall blocks gambling sites. These numbers are from a few days ago, which is the last time I had a chance to look at home. I've asked Hambone to check this afternoon and update the numbers if necessary. Obviously if the juice is significantly different then what I post here, you shouldn't play it. Use your best judgement.

Atlanta Braves Over 83.5 -115 (BetUS), 3.45 Units to win 3 units.

Amazingly consistent projections from the three systems. CHONE says 86, Diamond Mind 86.7, and PECOTA 87. I assume it's the Braves' record last year that's holding the lines back, because it's not like this is a franchise with a tradition of losing. Ownership has shown a willingness to make a move and spend some dough if they've got a shot at the playoffs, which I suspect they do. The pitching staff is approaching AARP eligibility, but they've got young talent like Campillo and Jurrjens to back it up if the injury bug or Alzheimer's strikes guys like Lowe, Glavine and Vasquez.


Baltimore Orioles Over 73.5 +110 (Greek), 2 units to win 2.2 units.

I'm somewhat iffy on this one. All three projection services are barely above this number. I only like it because of the +110 number I saw for it last time I checked the Greek. A positive number plus all three services projecting 74-75 wins is value, plain and simple. But if you can't get the +110 any more, stay away from this one. The fan base is gonna be screaming for a Wieters callup by the end of the month, which certainly will help matters.


Chicago White Sox Under 78.5 -120 (WSEX), 2.4 units to win 2 units.

Wow, these guys are old. Old old old. My grandfather used to sit me on his lap and tell me stories about watching Jose Contreras pitch to the Babe. Jim Thome wears an onion on his belt. He can't get the white ones, on account of the war, so he has to wear the big yellow ones. Last week Jermaine Dye told at me and my friends to get the hell off his lawn. You get the picture. All three projections are under this number. PECOTA is the highest, at 76.


Florida Marlins Under 76.5 -130 (WSEX), 3.9 units to win 3 units.

I don't have a lot to add here. Florida has a lot of young, highly-touted prospects like Maybin and Volstead. But the team's not quite ready for prime time yet. The projections have them between 71 and 72.5. Of course, it's possible that their legendary raucous home crowds will lift them to a couple extra wins, so be wary of that.


Seattle Mariners Over 72.5 -125 (Greek), 3.75 units to win 3 units.

See how we're switching it up on them? The books go high on the Mariners in 2008, so we go low! And then when they go low, we go high! We're coming at them like a spider monkey. They'll never know what hit 'em.

In case you prefer a little more analysis before you put your hard-earned money down, PECOTA's got them at 77, CHONE at 78, and Diamond Mind at 77.8. Just imagine how this team would look with Adam Jones in the outfield, George Sherrill in the bullpen, and Chris Tillman waiting in the wings to spearhead the rotation.

I'm sorry, Seattle. That was mean. Bill Bavasi is gone. He won't ever haunt your nightmares again. I promise.


Toronto Blue Jays Under 79.5 -140 (WSEX), 2.8 units to win 2 units.

In keeping with Canadian tradition, this discussion will be devoid of anything interesting or colorful. PECOTA says 76, CHONE says 75, Diamond Mind says 75.6. the win total was 80.5 elsewhere, which looks really good, but the line was -190 or thereabouts, which is just too damn expensive.


And now we get to the two big ones. They're both unders. I'm quite the Negative Nancy this year ...


Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Under 89.5 -130 (BetUS), 5.2 units to win 4 units.

CHONE and Diamond Mind have them in the 85 range. If PECOTA was the same this would be a 2 unit play. But PECOTA says 81. And PECOTA is my sun and my moon. I follow Nate Silver around with a copy of Excel and try to get him to sign it. This line might have moved with the news about Lackey getting increasingly negative, so make sure you're still getting decent value here before putting your entire tax refund on it like I did.

Minnesota Twins Under 83.5 -105 (BetUS), 5.25 units to win 5 units.

This one hurts, because the Minnesota Twins are everyone's Little Team That Could. The numbers guys usually love them, because their front office is well-run and incredibly efficient with their budget. And how can you root against a team that asked The Hold Steady to record a version of Take Me Out to the Ball Game for them? Unfortunately, the numbers just don't add up this year. CHONE and Diamond Mind say 79. PECOTA is even less generous, pegging the Twins for 76 wins. And making matters worse, Twins fans are gonna have to watch Matt Wieters replace Joe Mauer as the best young catcher in the history of anything ever. Looks like a sad summer in Minneapolis, which sucks because I'm guessing their winters aren't much fun either.

Finally, I'm not making any of these official plays, but as a public service to you, here are the other teams on which all three projections are on the same side as the win total lines by more than one game. For the most part, I didn't play them because there wasn't enough difference between the projections and the lines or because the juice was too high or a combination thereof. All of them are decent plays, and if I'm feeling saucy or if I find any number better than what I found last time I looked, I will play them and post them here later this weekend:

Houston Astros Under 74.5, Tampa Bay Rays Over 87.5, Washington Nationals Over 71.5.