OK, the first baseball pick of the new blog. That doesn't mean it's any better than the future picks, just the first. For record-keeping purposes, we're going to use round numbers rather than something like 1 unit to win 1.27 units. Here we go:
Pirates (Snell) +127 (WSEX) , 100 to win 127
If you're going to play the Pirates against the Cubs, you want to get in there in today's situation, when a lefty is on the mound for Chicago and a righty for Pittsburgh. Snell has had a steady start to his season, while Hill has already been temporarily yanked from the rotation once this year because of his shaky performances. Pirates hitters love to see left-handed pitchers, and to get to face a guy struggling with his confidence like Hill is an extra bonus. Plus, when you have an unloved team like the Pirates facing a presumed World Series contender like the Cubs, the line will almost always be shaded a little toward the contender, giving you extra value on the underdog. In today's game, the Pirates get another break in that Alfonso Soriano is on the DL for the Cubs, because Soriano has owned Snell in their few confrontations - .500 batting average, 1.821 OPS (not a misprint), with 3 home runs and 5 RBI in only 12 at bats. With that firepower sitting on the bench, we think Pittsburgh has a slight edge today, and we'll take the underdog every time in that situation.
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