Run Support, Over/Unders and Micah Owings

This post on umpbump.com, linked on Deadspin, got me thinking about our friend Mr. Owings and the possibility that his hitting may be a means by which to gain an edge on Average Joe Bettor. Could it be that having Owings in the lineup essentially changes the Arizona Diamondbacks into an American League team, with no "hole" in the lineup, once every five days? More importantly, does Vegas account for this when it sets moneylines and over/under totals?

In 2007, Owings ranked 27th out of 70 NL pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in run support. However, most of the guys ahead of him threw in hitters' parks, or were backed by potent lineups, or both. The D-backs ranked 14th of 16 teams in runs scored last year, edging only the Nats and the Giants. Not a single Nat, Giant or D-Back got better run support than Owings.

How did this pan out in Vegas? By my count, the Over hit 16 times in Owings starts in 2007, and the Under hit 11 times. A small sample size to be sure, but it suggests that the lines perhaps failed to account for Owings' prowess at the dish.

So far in 2008, the Under has hit 3 times during Owings starts, and the Over has hit once. However, I think this is mostly a result of his lights-out start to the season. Owings sports a 2.42 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. His .210 BABIP would suggest that he won't sustain that sort of performance. We'll be keeping an eye on Over/Unders in Owings' starts, as well as the value on the Diamondbacks in these games. There may be less value then we'd like there, due to the D-backs' hot start at the plate and in the standings in 2008, but it's worth tracking.