Patriot's Day Pick

Rangers +160 (Betus), 100 to win 160

The kind of pick that we love - an underdog inflated due to non-factors like the fact that it's "Patriot's Day" in Boston and such. Red Sox have been hitting well, but the Rangers are very dangerous against right-handed pitchers, especially guys who are struggling like Buchholz. Gabbard has pitched much better than Buchholz, 2.41 ERA so far vs. 6.75 for Buchholz, and those numbers don't appear to be a fluke, as their BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is virtually identical (.317 for Gabbard, .333 for Buchholz - see Grover's post on BABIP below). Luck doesn't explain the difference here, or at least, it appears that they have both been a little unlucky in the way the ball has bounced, making Gabbard's performance even more remarkable. We'll take the Rangers lineup vs. a struggling RHP, especially where the line is inflated by Red Sox Nation. Additionally, if you watched the Celtics game last night, you saw half of the Sox lineup sitting courtside (Ortiz, Pedroia, Youkilis, etc.). That game wasn't over until after 11 PM, and you know there were some post-game festivities, so we don't expect the Sox to be 100% fresh for an early game today.