Wednesday Baseball Picks

Tough extra-innings loss on the Cardinals game yesterday, but the NBA pick cashed nicely. Here are the three baseball picks we could come to an agreement on today, all lines from Matchbook:


Angels (Garland) +164, 100 to win 164

Pitching matchup is pretty even, especially when you compare BABIP for this year so far (see BABIP post below). Slight hitting edge to the Red Sox, but not enough to justify a line this huge. We'll happily take the value play here.


Cubs (Hill) -101, 101 to win 100

With a lefty on the mound for both teams, the Cubs should have a big advantage offensively, in addition to the pitching advantage of Rich Hill over Morales. Cubs hitting .316 in their last 10 games vs. left-handed pitchers, while Rockies only .221. Cubs get ahead early in this one and hold on down the stretch.


Giants (Cain) +135, 100 to win 135

I read this article on a well-known sports betting information site, which purports to list the best and worst starting pitchers for the month of April. Cain is listed among the worst such pitchers. However, the only criteria used in compiling this list is the win-loss records for these pitchers' teams in their starts over the past 3 seasons, which is completely ludicrous. It would bad enough if the author (an "expert" handicapper) just used each pitcher's win-loss record over that span, but to use the teams' records makes it even worse. According to this article, if a pitcher didn't get much run support in several April games, or had a defense behind him that committed a lot of errors, or a bullpen which blew several of his leads, that pitcher would be a terrible pitcher in April. What if a pitcher was with a different team now? A bigger-hitting team with good defense and a reliable bullpen? Or, if the pitcher's team had improved significantly over the years (e.g. Zach Greinke, also one of the "worst" who actually has decent stats)? If the pitcher's stats were great under those circumstances, would he still be a lousy bet in April? It's ridiculous. Incidentally, Cain's ERA in April the past 3 seasons is 3.23 and his WHIP is 1.05, hardly the numbers put up by the worst pitchers in the league. You can pay money for the author's picks, by the way.

As for today's matchup, the Giants are hitting better than the Padres, have the better pitcher on the mound, and are getting the underdog price. Easy decision for us.