THAT'S the way to kick off the blog......with a loss. But, if you told us before the game that the final score was going to be 3-2 (but didn't say which team would win), I think we would make that bet every time. If you could get close games like this every time you take an underdog, and come out on the winning side about half of the time, you would obviously make out pretty well. Two plays for tonight:
Giants +130 (WSEX), 100 to win 130
Grover loves him some Cain. When he sees a young, relatively unheralded pitcher who has very nice stats, but a 7-16 win-loss record from last year, my partner in crime starts to drool. The Giants didn't give Cain a lot of run support last year, and they won't this year, but we still like this play. Even a team as bad as the Giants is going to notch 65-70 wins this year, which is a lot of underdog winners, so the trick is to pick the spots where they're most likely to prevail. In limited instances, the Cardinals hitters have not been able to hit Cain, and sooner or later, this mirage of excellence coming out of St. Louis will fade.
Indians -113 (WSEX), 113 to win 100
We think Cliff Lee is for real this season. He's still a little underrated so far this year, even though he has performed brilliantly (0.61 ERA), because of his dreadful performance last season. Last year's results, when Lee was suffering with an abdominal strain, is not indicative of his ability when healthy. Don't get me wrong, his ERA is not going to end the year below 1.00, but with the recreational bettor looking at last year's stats on Lee, it allows us to get this line at a bargain price. Liriano has obviously not fully recovered from his health issues, and the Indians hitters should get back on track tonight against the lefty pitcher's weak offerings.
Friday, April 18, 2008
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