After a lousy week or two put us in the red, we're back on the plus side in baseball. Hoping to stay that way after playing these three, all lines from Matchbook:
Indians +139, 1 unit to win 1.39 units
The compulsory Gavin Floyd fade. Wagerline has 66% on the White Sox, Sports Insights shows 82%. We'll go the other way.
Brewers +118, 1 unit to win 1.18 units
A couple/few weeks ago, we wagered against Dave Bush and I made a remark about how much he sucks. He, of course, went out and pitched the best game of his life that night. So, let me be clear, Dave Bush sucks. He's the worst. Probably will give up 20 runs tonight.
A's +127, 1 unit to win 1.27 units
Greg Smith pitching very well this season. Angels not as good as their record suggests.
Good luck everybody.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Monday Morning Wimbledon
Lines from Matchbook:
S. Wawrinka +100 over M. Safin, 0.50 units to win 0.50 units
M. Youzhny +660 over R. Nadal, 0.25 units to win 1.65 units
Sunday Afternoon
MLB
Twins +110, 1 unit to win 1.10 units
Line has dropped a good bit the past hour or so, which is hopefully a good sign for us. Slowey has been quietly pitching as well as anybody (46 strikeouts, 9 walks).
Giants +129, 1 unit to win 1.29 units
We've been supporters of Sanchez for a while and he has paid off so far. Blanton and the A's offense struggling lately.
Mariners +143, 1 unit to win 1.43 units
Great pitching matchup. As we've said before, in a probable low-scoring pitcher's duel, we'll take the decent number with the underdog more times than not.
Golf
For Sunday's round only:
S. Verplank -125 over R. Mediate, 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Mediate getting too much love after the showdown with Tiger. Verplank is the better golfer and he's playing on a course where he has had good results in the past.
Good luck everybody.
Twins +110, 1 unit to win 1.10 units
Line has dropped a good bit the past hour or so, which is hopefully a good sign for us. Slowey has been quietly pitching as well as anybody (46 strikeouts, 9 walks).
Giants +129, 1 unit to win 1.29 units
We've been supporters of Sanchez for a while and he has paid off so far. Blanton and the A's offense struggling lately.
Mariners +143, 1 unit to win 1.43 units
Great pitching matchup. As we've said before, in a probable low-scoring pitcher's duel, we'll take the decent number with the underdog more times than not.
Golf
For Sunday's round only:
S. Verplank -125 over R. Mediate, 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Mediate getting too much love after the showdown with Tiger. Verplank is the better golfer and he's playing on a course where he has had good results in the past.
Good luck everybody.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Saturday Night Action
Found Grover, and here's the rest for Saturday. All baseball lines from Matchbook:
MLB
Brewers -110, 1.10 units to win 1 unit
We like this Parra guy, and fading Livan is a bonus. Twins have been doing most of their damage lately versus right-handed pitchers, and we'll think they'll struggle a bit against the young lefty starter tonight.
Nationals +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
We really like this one, which worries me. Lannan has been great and the Nats have to be excited about facing a struggling lefty at home.
Phillies -129, 1.29 units to win 1 unit
More juice than we typically like, but Hamels is ridiculously good. Phillies should get over their recent hitting woes against the over-rated Padilla.
WNBA
Both plays from WSEX for 0.55 units to win 0.50 units. I was going to provide explanations, but I think that would make me an even bigger tool than I already am for posting these picks.
San Antonio -4
Sacramento -3
Back tomorrow.
MLB
Brewers -110, 1.10 units to win 1 unit
We like this Parra guy, and fading Livan is a bonus. Twins have been doing most of their damage lately versus right-handed pitchers, and we'll think they'll struggle a bit against the young lefty starter tonight.
Nationals +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
We really like this one, which worries me. Lannan has been great and the Nats have to be excited about facing a struggling lefty at home.
Phillies -129, 1.29 units to win 1 unit
More juice than we typically like, but Hamels is ridiculously good. Phillies should get over their recent hitting woes against the over-rated Padilla.
WNBA
Both plays from WSEX for 0.55 units to win 0.50 units. I was going to provide explanations, but I think that would make me an even bigger tool than I already am for posting these picks.
San Antonio -4
Sacramento -3
Back tomorrow.
Saturday Afternoon Baseball
I believe my blog partner actually had to work this morning, so I may not hear from him until we look at tonight's games. So, with that fair warning that these picks are just from me (be afraid, be very afraid), here are a couple of daytime contests:
Bluejays +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
This Parrish kid has compiled a K/BB of almost in AAA so far this year. Bluejays have been hitting well, and Chipper sitting out with a bad quad is a little extra gravy. We're with the home dog.
Yankees +117, 1 unit to win 1.17 units
It makes me a little queasy to back the Yankees, but I think they're the right side today. Pettitte has actually been pitching better than Johan recently and the Yanks have been hitting better as well. Mets bats have been erratic lately (to say the least) and I think Roger Clemens' former best friend gets the best of them today.
Good luck everybody.
Bluejays +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
This Parrish kid has compiled a K/BB of almost in AAA so far this year. Bluejays have been hitting well, and Chipper sitting out with a bad quad is a little extra gravy. We're with the home dog.
Yankees +117, 1 unit to win 1.17 units
It makes me a little queasy to back the Yankees, but I think they're the right side today. Pettitte has actually been pitching better than Johan recently and the Yanks have been hitting better as well. Mets bats have been erratic lately (to say the least) and I think Roger Clemens' former best friend gets the best of them today.
Good luck everybody.
Saturday On The Grass
Saturday morning from Wimbledon:
M. Youzhny +130 over R. Stepanek, 0.50 units to win 0.65 units
D. Tursunov +128 over J. Tipsarevic, 0.50 units to win 0.64 units
P. Mathieu -130 over M. Cilic, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units
Off to bed. Good luck everybody.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Friday Night Baseball
Still fuming over not being able to get our Rays pick in yesterday afternoon because of a faulty internet connection (bastards!). Broke even on the 2 that we did play. Four for tonight, all lines from Matchbook:
Braves +126, 1 unit to win 1.26 units
Close matchup, with Jurrjens having pitched a little better recently. Line is probably a little bit overinflated because, you know, the Braves couldn't possibly win a road game.
Royals -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
Both of us had this one on our lists when we checked the lines this morning. Better pitcher, better hitting, at home. We like it.
Astros +141, 1 unit to win 1.41 units
Fading Dice-K has become one of our favorite hobbies. Houston players are on notice that the GM will kick their ass and release them if they don't play up to their potential.
Dodgers +110, 1 unit to win 1.10 units
Grover likes the idea of fading the Angels whenever possible. Something about Third World Order Records or some such. I don't understand all that jive, but I like the Dodgers against lefties, especially a lefty still carrying a BABIP of .244 this far into the season.
Good luck everybody.
Braves +126, 1 unit to win 1.26 units
Close matchup, with Jurrjens having pitched a little better recently. Line is probably a little bit overinflated because, you know, the Braves couldn't possibly win a road game.
Royals -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
Both of us had this one on our lists when we checked the lines this morning. Better pitcher, better hitting, at home. We like it.
Astros +141, 1 unit to win 1.41 units
Fading Dice-K has become one of our favorite hobbies. Houston players are on notice that the GM will kick their ass and release them if they don't play up to their potential.
Dodgers +110, 1 unit to win 1.10 units
Grover likes the idea of fading the Angels whenever possible. Something about Third World Order Records or some such. I don't understand all that jive, but I like the Dodgers against lefties, especially a lefty still carrying a BABIP of .244 this far into the season.
Good luck everybody.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Thursday Night Picks
Damn internet connection went out and I couldn't get the Rays pick in before the game started. Dammit. Hey, Time Warner, tell me how my a** tastes (apologies to Shaq). The rest of the guesses:
MLB
Giants +147, 1 unit to win 1.47 units
Indians can't score a run to save their lives. We like Lee and Cain, but we'll take the dog in a low-scoring contest.
Astros -135, 1.35 units to win 1 unit
A rare favorite, but we like this one. Wandy at home has been lights-out, Millwood is just average, and the Rangers are dealing with a lot of injury concerns (Hamilton, Bradley, Laird, Blalock). Astros get the home win.
WNBA
New York -2, 0.55 units to win 0.50 units
Because I'm a glutton for punishment......
MLB
Giants +147, 1 unit to win 1.47 units
Indians can't score a run to save their lives. We like Lee and Cain, but we'll take the dog in a low-scoring contest.
Astros -135, 1.35 units to win 1 unit
A rare favorite, but we like this one. Wandy at home has been lights-out, Millwood is just average, and the Rangers are dealing with a lot of injury concerns (Hamilton, Bradley, Laird, Blalock). Astros get the home win.
WNBA
New York -2, 0.55 units to win 0.50 units
Because I'm a glutton for punishment......
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Thursday Thennis
Holy crap, that was lame. On to the Wimbledon picks for Thursday:
G. Simon -130 (WSEX) over A. Calleri, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units
J. Nieminen +170 (Matchbook) over M. Cilic, 0.50 units to win 0.85 units
T. Robredo +182 (Matchbook) over T. Haas, 0.50 units to win 0.91 units
S. Grosjean +400 (Matchbook) over R. Gasquet, 0.25 units to win 1 unit
Good luck everybody.
Wednesday Night Baseball
We're going to go ahead and post tonight's picks to give the lunchtime readers a chance to see the plays, but if you can wait a little while on some of these, you might get a slightly better number. All lines from Matchbook:
Giants +158, 1 unit to win 1.58 units
So, apparently Barry Zito has been an avid reader of the blog since we proclaimed him our hero and posted his picture a couple of times, because he left a profanity-laced tirade on my voice mail last night after seeing the picture of King Felix on here yesterday. In the end, he promised to regain our respect in his start tonight, so we'll go along for the ride. Two awful pitchers, two lame offenses, we'll take the +158 in a 1-0 shitfest that could go either way.
Mariners +202, 0.50 units to win 1.01 units
Explanation from Grover: "Mariner-hating has officially jumped the shark. At this point they are so despised by bettors that they get +200 against the #2/#3 starter for a .500 team. The matchup stats favor the Mets, thus the half-unit play, but we couldn't live with ourselves if we ignored this completely out-of-whack number."
A's -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Don't tell Barry we're supporting his old team tonight, my cell phone is low on minutes for the rest of June. Definite pitching edge to Oakland tonight and we prefer going against the Phillies facing a lefty starter than a righty.
Dodgers -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
We're not sure if we're persistent or just stupidly stubborn, but we're going to keep beating the "Gavin Floyd can't maintain a .200 BABIP all year" drum until we break the damn thing. Stults was impressive in his last outing and the Dodgers should have enough offense to pull out a much-needed home win tonight.
Haven't looked at the college game yet, but we'll post that later if we like it. Otherwise, we'll call it a season in the CWS and pocket the earnings until next year. Probably will have something for Thursday morning at Wimbledon (2-0 so far today with one big dog pending), but won't get a chance to look until later tonight. Good luck everybody.
Giants +158, 1 unit to win 1.58 units
So, apparently Barry Zito has been an avid reader of the blog since we proclaimed him our hero and posted his picture a couple of times, because he left a profanity-laced tirade on my voice mail last night after seeing the picture of King Felix on here yesterday. In the end, he promised to regain our respect in his start tonight, so we'll go along for the ride. Two awful pitchers, two lame offenses, we'll take the +158 in a 1-0 shitfest that could go either way.
Mariners +202, 0.50 units to win 1.01 units
Explanation from Grover: "Mariner-hating has officially jumped the shark. At this point they are so despised by bettors that they get +200 against the #2/#3 starter for a .500 team. The matchup stats favor the Mets, thus the half-unit play, but we couldn't live with ourselves if we ignored this completely out-of-whack number."
A's -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Don't tell Barry we're supporting his old team tonight, my cell phone is low on minutes for the rest of June. Definite pitching edge to Oakland tonight and we prefer going against the Phillies facing a lefty starter than a righty.
Dodgers -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
We're not sure if we're persistent or just stupidly stubborn, but we're going to keep beating the "Gavin Floyd can't maintain a .200 BABIP all year" drum until we break the damn thing. Stults was impressive in his last outing and the Dodgers should have enough offense to pull out a much-needed home win tonight.
Haven't looked at the college game yet, but we'll post that later if we like it. Otherwise, we'll call it a season in the CWS and pocket the earnings until next year. Probably will have something for Thursday morning at Wimbledon (2-0 so far today with one big dog pending), but won't get a chance to look until later tonight. Good luck everybody.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Wednesday Wimbledon
Three small plays for Wednesday morning on the grass. All lines from Matchbook:
I. Andreev +312 over D. Ferrer, 0.25 units to win 0.78 units
S. Wawrinka -150 over J. Del Potro, 0.75 units to win 0.50 units
B. Reynolds +232 over F. Dancevic, 0.25 units to win 0.58 units
_
Hey, We Can Dunk, Too!
For the 2 or 3 of you who can't get enough of this garbage - tonight's WNBA picks. Both lines from Bookmaker, each for 0.55 units to win 0.50 units.
Mystics +1
Liberty +5.5
Back later tonight if I see any tennis lines worth playing.
Tuesday Picks and a New Hero
Congratulations to the Against All Odds "Gambler's Hero" for the month of June. Has anyone ever singlehandedly won as much money for contrarian betters as Felix Hernandez did last night, outdueling Santana for 4 2/3 before getting injured covering home AND hitting a grand slam in his first plate appearance of the year?
On to the Tuesday picks:
San Francisco Giants +159 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.59 units.
Simple value play here. Sanchez is every bit the talent that Laffey is, and the Indians lineup without their mid-decade stars is almost as impotent as the Giants starting nine. We'll take +159 on those facts any time.
Colorado Rockies +140 (Bet US), 1 unit to win 1.4 units.
We hesitate to take an anti-Greinke position, especially when the public is on the Rockies at about 60%. But the real value here appears to be in De La Rosa, whose K/BB ratio and WHIP numbers suggest his ERA should be much better than it is. The Rockies are finally getting healthy and although they will never be mistaken for the 1927 Yankees, we expect their offensive production to start to tick up accordingly.
Washington Nationals ????.
***Update- looks like the lines here have stalled at the +130 to +135 range. BetUS is +135 right now, so we'll make that our "official" play, 1 unit to win 1.35.***
We recommend playing this at anything above +125, but it's trending higher and higher, so it might be prudent to hold off and see if you can get a better bargain as the public money comes in on the Angels. Hambone first saw it at +108 in the overnight lines, and it's at +130 or so now. The reason is simple: the public perception is that the Nats are horrible, Shawn Hill is a replacement-level pitcher, the Angels are among the league's top teams, and Jon Garland is an above-average starter. Only one of those things is true. The Nats might suck, but we'll happily fade the not-as-great-as-they-seem Angels whenever it seems like a good idea (current run differential: +14, current win differential: +17), and with Garland on the mound, now is good a time as any. We'll revisit this post around 4:30 PM with the best line we can find at that time.
Run, Meat Hook, Run!
In an attempt to replicate the success of Milwaukee's Sausage Race, the Washington Nationals held their first "I'm Full of Sausage" Race this weekend. Pre-race favorite Dmitri Young won easily even after crapping a batting helmet as he rounded third.
_
Monday, June 23, 2008
Tuesday Tennis
Missed the first day of The Championships while I was away, but played 3 first-round matches for Day 2:
D. Tursunov -110 (BetUS) over N. Mahut, 0.55 units to win 0.50 units
J. Bjorkman +142 (Matchbook) over A. Clement, 0.50 units to win 0.71 units
M. Fish +200 (WSEX) over R. Gasquet, 0.25 units to win 0.50 units
Good luck everybody.
Back From the Beach
Well-rested, sunburned, and hopefully clear-headed enough to pick some baseball winners. For Monday night:
MLB
Mariners +161 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.61 units
Grover hates the Mariners with a passion (not a personal animosity fan-wise, he just thinks they are hugely over-rated and usually he's right), but I talked him into this one. Felix Hernandez has been pitching great lately, the Mariners have hit Johan really well in the past, and have been hitting lefties really well in general lately. Oh, and did I mention we're getting +161?
Brewers -110 (Matchbook), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
When I started looking at this game, I expected to be leaning to the Braves. But, we ended up going the other way. Sheets is the better pitcher in tonight's game and the Brewers hitters are very good versus lefties. A little juice is OK in this spot.
College World Series
Georgia -125 (WSEX), 1.25 units to win 1 unit
The Bulldogs made a bold move on Saturday when they opted not to start their best pitcher (Holder) against Stanford, choosing to save him for a potential must-win game on Sunday if they lost Saturday or, as it turned out, for Game 1 of the Finals tonight. With Holder on the mound and plenty of power in the lineup tonight, Georgia should be too much for a weary Fresno State squad tonight.
I should be back later with Wimbledon picks for tomorrow. Good luck everybody.
MLB
Mariners +161 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.61 units
Grover hates the Mariners with a passion (not a personal animosity fan-wise, he just thinks they are hugely over-rated and usually he's right), but I talked him into this one. Felix Hernandez has been pitching great lately, the Mariners have hit Johan really well in the past, and have been hitting lefties really well in general lately. Oh, and did I mention we're getting +161?
Brewers -110 (Matchbook), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
When I started looking at this game, I expected to be leaning to the Braves. But, we ended up going the other way. Sheets is the better pitcher in tonight's game and the Brewers hitters are very good versus lefties. A little juice is OK in this spot.
College World Series
Georgia -125 (WSEX), 1.25 units to win 1 unit
The Bulldogs made a bold move on Saturday when they opted not to start their best pitcher (Holder) against Stanford, choosing to save him for a potential must-win game on Sunday if they lost Saturday or, as it turned out, for Game 1 of the Finals tonight. With Holder on the mound and plenty of power in the lineup tonight, Georgia should be too much for a weary Fresno State squad tonight.
I should be back later with Wimbledon picks for tomorrow. Good luck everybody.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Sunday Dogs
Played a few favorites in the last couple days, getting back to our usual dog plays today.
New York Mets +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units.
Mike Pelfrey is nothing special, but for the life of me I can't figure out what Greg Reynolds is doing on a major league roster. I don't think the return of Tulowitzki is going to magically turn the 2008 Rockies into the 2007 Rockies.
Cincinnati Red +199, 1 unit to win 1.99 units.
Cueto has been inconsistent for the Reds, but at 1.99 it's worth taking a chance that he'll be "on" today. If the Joe Public favorite Yankees weren't involved, I'd say this line is so out of whack that I'm suspicious.
Chicago White Sox +123, 1 unit to win 1.23 units.
Vasquez has been quietly putting together a very impressive career, but because he bombed in his high-profile stint with the Yankees he doesn't get the public respect he deserves. I think Dempster is vastly overrated this year.
New York Mets +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units.
Mike Pelfrey is nothing special, but for the life of me I can't figure out what Greg Reynolds is doing on a major league roster. I don't think the return of Tulowitzki is going to magically turn the 2008 Rockies into the 2007 Rockies.
Cincinnati Red +199, 1 unit to win 1.99 units.
Cueto has been inconsistent for the Reds, but at 1.99 it's worth taking a chance that he'll be "on" today. If the Joe Public favorite Yankees weren't involved, I'd say this line is so out of whack that I'm suspicious.
Chicago White Sox +123, 1 unit to win 1.23 units.
Vasquez has been quietly putting together a very impressive career, but because he bombed in his high-profile stint with the Yankees he doesn't get the public respect he deserves. I think Dempster is vastly overrated this year.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Saturday action
It's too damn nice outside to be doing this stuff. Today's picks, lines from Matchbook:
St Louis Cardinals +236, 1 unit to win 2.36.
We've been through this "Matsusaka walks way too many batters" thing before. Let's hope it bites him again today, when the books are giving us an obscene +236 line.
Philadelphia Phillies -112, 1.12 units to win 1.
Slight edge to the Angels on the hill with Saunders, but not much. Certainly not enough to overcome the Phillies' edge at the dish in their bandbox. And as I've mentioned before on several occasions, the Angels are not as good as their record suggests.
That's it for now. Would like to fade the Yankees and that inflated weekend line, but don't know enough about the starters.
St Louis Cardinals +236, 1 unit to win 2.36.
We've been through this "Matsusaka walks way too many batters" thing before. Let's hope it bites him again today, when the books are giving us an obscene +236 line.
Philadelphia Phillies -112, 1.12 units to win 1.
Slight edge to the Angels on the hill with Saunders, but not much. Certainly not enough to overcome the Phillies' edge at the dish in their bandbox. And as I've mentioned before on several occasions, the Angels are not as good as their record suggests.
That's it for now. Would like to fade the Yankees and that inflated weekend line, but don't know enough about the starters.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Caveat Emptor
As The Moneyline Journal has pointed out, the public is all over the Braves tonight at a level that is truly bizarre. The line has moved significantly, but not nearly enough to account for public money coming in at close to 4 to 1. This obviously gives me pause- I expected things to even out as the line moved later in the day, but wagerline still puts the public at 78.2% for the Braves. We'll stand by our "official" pick at -121, but in the interest of helping out you, the reader, by providing all relevant information, I wanted to point this out.
Friday Picks
So Hambone has run this operation completely into the ground and then handed me the keys as he heads for the hills. I feel the same way that Barack Obama is probably going to feel in about 8 months. Ha, political humor! Zing!
OK, let's get started on the slow road to recovery.
Toronto Blue Jays -147 (Matchbook), 1.47 units to win 1.
We rarely play big-name pitchers and also rarely play substantial favorites, but this is a case where the big name in question may be flying under the radar this year. His "surface" numbers are decent, but his K/BB ratio is obscene. With Nady out and Bay feeling sick, there's value in Halladay even at that substantial number
Atlanta Braves -121 (Matchbook), 1.21 unis to win 1.
Campillo is the real deal (I think that's the seventh or eighth time I've said that exact sentence in an email or blog post). We've written about the undervaluation of the Braves on the road ad nauseum. I won't bother going through it again. I have absolutely no problem playing the chalk here, Bedard or no Bedard.
Minnesota Twins -109 (Matchboook), 1.09 units to win 1.
Apparently it's favorites day here at Against All Odds. I feel dirty. At least this resembles our modus operandi, favoring a young pitcher who looks to be the real deal against an overvalued veteran "name." In this case it's Scott Baker, Minnesota's fantastic pitcher, against the Big Unit. Our dislike for the D-backs offense is also well-documented.
Baltimore Orioles +135 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.35.
If we played all the favorites it just wouldn't be right. Rahames Liz is not great but is better than his 2008 stats suggest, and I'm on the record as anti-Suppan. Orioles magic continues for one more day.
OK, let's get started on the slow road to recovery.
Toronto Blue Jays -147 (Matchbook), 1.47 units to win 1.
We rarely play big-name pitchers and also rarely play substantial favorites, but this is a case where the big name in question may be flying under the radar this year. His "surface" numbers are decent, but his K/BB ratio is obscene. With Nady out and Bay feeling sick, there's value in Halladay even at that substantial number
Atlanta Braves -121 (Matchbook), 1.21 unis to win 1.
Campillo is the real deal (I think that's the seventh or eighth time I've said that exact sentence in an email or blog post). We've written about the undervaluation of the Braves on the road ad nauseum. I won't bother going through it again. I have absolutely no problem playing the chalk here, Bedard or no Bedard.
Minnesota Twins -109 (Matchboook), 1.09 units to win 1.
Apparently it's favorites day here at Against All Odds. I feel dirty. At least this resembles our modus operandi, favoring a young pitcher who looks to be the real deal against an overvalued veteran "name." In this case it's Scott Baker, Minnesota's fantastic pitcher, against the Big Unit. Our dislike for the D-backs offense is also well-documented.
Baltimore Orioles +135 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.35.
If we played all the favorites it just wouldn't be right. Rahames Liz is not great but is better than his 2008 stats suggest, and I'm on the record as anti-Suppan. Orioles magic continues for one more day.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Friday Morning Tennis - Two for the Road
Before the day went to hell on the baseball diamond, we picked up a little more than a unit profit in the Wimbledon warmups Thursday morning. Posting a couple of small plays for Friday, and then hitting the road for the beach when I wake up in the morning. Probably no internet again until Monday, so you'll be in the capable hands of Mr. Grover until then (just skim through the stat-geek mumbo-jumbo to get to the picks - that's what I do). Hopefully, massive amounts of beer and fried seafood will help me pull my head out of my ass.
For Friday:
F. Verdasco -130 (WSEX) over M. Cilic, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units
G. Monfils +160 (WSEX) over I. Karlovic, 0.25 units to win 0.40 units
Have a good weekend, everybody.
For Friday:
F. Verdasco -130 (WSEX) over M. Cilic, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units
G. Monfils +160 (WSEX) over I. Karlovic, 0.25 units to win 0.40 units
Have a good weekend, everybody.
Shit Sandwich
That's my two-word review for this afternoon's baseball games. Three 1-run losses and a fourth where our team was up 6-0 at one point. What a crock of shit. My long weekend at the beach with no internet connection can't start early enough.........
Grover Gets His Fire Joe Morgan On
Only three games tonight, and we don't like any of them. Instead, I'd like to go somewhat off-topic for a moment and discuss this horrific article that someone actually got paid to write. My apologies to the masters of the genre over at firejoemorgan.com, but I can't resist this one.
I don't even know where to start. Let's go with my second-favorite team, the Tampa Bay Rays ("second-favorite" here meaning "the team that will make me rich as soon as they finish 162 games"). In one breath, he tells us that they're a nice story, but that "you have to be realistic with a franchise that has never come close to .500." Relying upon the performances of teams with entirely different personnel to project the performance of the 2008 team is dumb enough. But then this guy contradicts himself in his rankings by stating that they are a "real good ballclub capable of standing the test of time." Nice work.
Rant #2: This gentleman claims that the Yankees "lost their fantasy ace." I am guessing that he means Chien-Ming Wang. I can't be 100% sure, however, because although Wang has 8 wins, he also sports a 4.07 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and appears to be striking out batters at a rate of less than .6 per inning. I just went to check out my fantasy league (yes, that's right, I'm a tool), and all of those number except the win totals would drag down the average team in our league. Now the guys in my league are pretty sharp, but Eric Mack's byline describes him as Sportsline's senior fantasy writer. Hey CBS, if you're looking to upgrade your fantasy sports staff, eight guys in my twelve-team league know more about fantasy pitching than Eric Mack.
Rant #3: Saved the best for last. Mr. Mack ranks the Angels as the third-best team in baseball. Now, I'm a reasonable man. I don't expect people to bother with concepts like third-order records or Adjusted Equivalent Runs, even if it's, you know, their job. But the Angels have scored 308 runs this year. They've allowed 306. Is it too much to ask for a baseball writer to know that? I mean it's right there in the expanded standings of any sports website. Seriously. Just awful.
Of course, it's this sort of idiot groupthink (the Yankees will make the playoffs because they're "The Yankees," the Angels "know how to win the close ones"), that ultimately allow smarter people to take advantage. Now if we can just translate that into some positive results. Maybe we'll stop writing things like "Bush is awful and the Brewers don't hit righties well," which ended up looking about as smart as this article. Ouch.
I don't even know where to start. Let's go with my second-favorite team, the Tampa Bay Rays ("second-favorite" here meaning "the team that will make me rich as soon as they finish 162 games"). In one breath, he tells us that they're a nice story, but that "you have to be realistic with a franchise that has never come close to .500." Relying upon the performances of teams with entirely different personnel to project the performance of the 2008 team is dumb enough. But then this guy contradicts himself in his rankings by stating that they are a "real good ballclub capable of standing the test of time." Nice work.
Rant #2: This gentleman claims that the Yankees "lost their fantasy ace." I am guessing that he means Chien-Ming Wang. I can't be 100% sure, however, because although Wang has 8 wins, he also sports a 4.07 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and appears to be striking out batters at a rate of less than .6 per inning. I just went to check out my fantasy league (yes, that's right, I'm a tool), and all of those number except the win totals would drag down the average team in our league. Now the guys in my league are pretty sharp, but Eric Mack's byline describes him as Sportsline's senior fantasy writer. Hey CBS, if you're looking to upgrade your fantasy sports staff, eight guys in my twelve-team league know more about fantasy pitching than Eric Mack.
Rant #3: Saved the best for last. Mr. Mack ranks the Angels as the third-best team in baseball. Now, I'm a reasonable man. I don't expect people to bother with concepts like third-order records or Adjusted Equivalent Runs, even if it's, you know, their job. But the Angels have scored 308 runs this year. They've allowed 306. Is it too much to ask for a baseball writer to know that? I mean it's right there in the expanded standings of any sports website. Seriously. Just awful.
Of course, it's this sort of idiot groupthink (the Yankees will make the playoffs because they're "The Yankees," the Angels "know how to win the close ones"), that ultimately allow smarter people to take advantage. Now if we can just translate that into some positive results. Maybe we'll stop writing things like "Bush is awful and the Brewers don't hit righties well," which ended up looking about as smart as this article. Ouch.
The Official Thursday Afternoon Plays
OK, I got back to the office in time to put these in. I had warned Grover this morning that I might not make it, which explains the leans post. These are the real ones, all lines from Matchbook:
Padres +210, 1 unit to win 2.10 units
Wow, that line is crazy. Banks is pitching better than Joba the Hut, so the only concern is the normally lame Padres hitting. San Diego has been hitting reall well the past couple of weeks, and although I would never claim that their lineup is equal to the Yankees, today's contest is nowhere near as lopsided as this line would suggest. Joba's getting over -200? Seriously? We're hoping for a gnat infestation.
Bluejays -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit
Bush is awful and the Brewers don't hit righties well. Hoping for Burnett to snap out of his recent funk.
Pirates +156, 1 unit to win 1.56 units
Another crazy line. The White Sox have been bashing the hell out of the ball lately, which has inflated this line, but all of that damage has been done against right-handed pitchers. We'll take the lefty with the big number.
A's +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
I'll give Doug Davis credit for dealing with his illness in tough fashion, but that doesn't all of a sudden make him a good pitcher. Hitting and pitching edge to Oakland today.
Good luck everybody.
Padres +210, 1 unit to win 2.10 units
Wow, that line is crazy. Banks is pitching better than Joba the Hut, so the only concern is the normally lame Padres hitting. San Diego has been hitting reall well the past couple of weeks, and although I would never claim that their lineup is equal to the Yankees, today's contest is nowhere near as lopsided as this line would suggest. Joba's getting over -200? Seriously? We're hoping for a gnat infestation.
Bluejays -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit
Bush is awful and the Brewers don't hit righties well. Hoping for Burnett to snap out of his recent funk.
Pirates +156, 1 unit to win 1.56 units
Another crazy line. The White Sox have been bashing the hell out of the ball lately, which has inflated this line, but all of that damage has been done against right-handed pitchers. We'll take the lefty with the big number.
A's +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
I'll give Doug Davis credit for dealing with his illness in tough fashion, but that doesn't all of a sudden make him a good pitcher. Hitting and pitching edge to Oakland today.
Good luck everybody.
Early leans
Damn jobs, always getting in the way of making money. Here are our early leans for games starting before 3 PM, hopefully Hambone can review, update and post with best lines before gametime. Just wanted to put something out in case you want something to entertain you this afternoon but can't check back for the official vetted picks in an hour or two. I'm on my way to a meeting. Oy.
Padres +175ish
Jays -110ish
Pirates +144ish
Back soon (hopefully) with accurate lines and color.
Padres +175ish
Jays -110ish
Pirates +144ish
Back soon (hopefully) with accurate lines and color.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Wednesday Night Picks
Nice job, Sox. We're slowly digging out of our baseball hole. Hopefully, we won't give it all back tonight.
MLB
Braves -114 (Matchbook), 1.14 units to win 1 unit
We liked it better at -106 this morning, but that's not enough of a move to worry us off of this one. Reyes has pitched well for the Braves and we like the idea of going against the Rangers when they are facing a lefty. Good enough to pay a small amount of road juice as the Braves' road record regresses to the mean.
A's +142 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.42 units
Yes, Haren has been really good this season, but this line is too high with a decent starter on the mound for Oakland (Blanton), and as we've said many times, the D-Backs can't hit.
WNBA
Houston -5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Look, I don't like posting these plays any more than you like seeing them, but if I don't give one out every few days, our e-mail box fills up with complaints. So, there it is.
Tennis (Thursday morning)
Going to go ahead and put a couple up now for early tomorrow so I don't have to remember to come back and do it later:
G. Canas -120 over V. Troicki, 0.60 units to win 0.50 units
D. Ferrer +216 over M. Ancic, 0.25 units to win 0.54 units
Good luck everybody.
MLB
Braves -114 (Matchbook), 1.14 units to win 1 unit
We liked it better at -106 this morning, but that's not enough of a move to worry us off of this one. Reyes has pitched well for the Braves and we like the idea of going against the Rangers when they are facing a lefty. Good enough to pay a small amount of road juice as the Braves' road record regresses to the mean.
A's +142 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.42 units
Yes, Haren has been really good this season, but this line is too high with a decent starter on the mound for Oakland (Blanton), and as we've said many times, the D-Backs can't hit.
WNBA
Houston -5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Look, I don't like posting these plays any more than you like seeing them, but if I don't give one out every few days, our e-mail box fills up with complaints. So, there it is.
Tennis (Thursday morning)
Going to go ahead and put a couple up now for early tomorrow so I don't have to remember to come back and do it later:
G. Canas -120 over V. Troicki, 0.60 units to win 0.50 units
D. Ferrer +216 over M. Ancic, 0.25 units to win 0.54 units
Good luck everybody.
Wednesday Afternoon Baseball
Won a little bit in both baseball and soccer yesterday. Passing on the Euro Cup, but one baseball game for this afternoon:
Red Sox +130 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.30 units
That line move is fishy, but I liked it at +110 this morning, so no reason to change my mind unless there's an injury I don't know about (maybe Youkilis is sitting again). Masterson's BABIP is uncomfortably low, but I believe Grover told me that it's hard to tell with sinkerballers. Somehow, they can defy the BABIP numbers. We like him better than Kendrick and the hitting is pretty even, so we'll take the dog.
Red Sox +130 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.30 units
That line move is fishy, but I liked it at +110 this morning, so no reason to change my mind unless there's an injury I don't know about (maybe Youkilis is sitting again). Masterson's BABIP is uncomfortably low, but I believe Grover told me that it's hard to tell with sinkerballers. Somehow, they can defy the BABIP numbers. We like him better than Kendrick and the hitting is pretty even, so we'll take the dog.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Tuesday Baseball Card
Wherein we give back our recent modest gains with a four-play line-shopping bonanza:
Toronto Blue Jays +112 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.12 units.
McGowan vs. Parra. Both teams are slightly underrated by the public, but we think the Jays are the "more underrated" team, if that makes sense. Their third-order record would put them in the playoff chase. Plus we like McGowan, who looks to be a real talent with an ability to keep the ball in the park.
Washington Nationals +110 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.10 units.
Back to third-order records. The Nats are terrible, but everyone knows that. They might not know that the Twins are also terrible, to the tune of a 29-41 third-order record. That's Nationals-level bad. Lannan looks to be a quality #3 type starter, and Livan is Livan. We'll take the .1 units on this tough-to-call game.
Kansas City Royals +129 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.29 units.
In an effort to protect my reputation, I will spare you the ugly details concerning the amount of research I put in to determining who Royals' starter Kyle Davies is and what he's done with his fledgling career. Suffice to say that I ultimately found it mildly comforting. Also comforting is the fact that Pujols, Molina and pretty much the entire Cardinals pitching staff is on the DL. Note that this pick is based on Piniero as projected starter, we've seen some conflicting reports as to who is taking the mound tonight.
Oakland A's +140 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.40 units.
The public is starting to catch on to the fact that the D-backs aren't as good as they first appeared. But they still love them some Brandon Webb. Hate betting against him, but this is too good a number to pass up for someone as talented as Duscherererer.
A note to the 5 people who read this carefully- if you have a BetUS account, you might want to take a look at the 2009 NCAA basketball futures. They appear not to have taken into account yesterday's news. That is all I will say, since I don't want the number to move before I get home and online today.
Toronto Blue Jays +112 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.12 units.
McGowan vs. Parra. Both teams are slightly underrated by the public, but we think the Jays are the "more underrated" team, if that makes sense. Their third-order record would put them in the playoff chase. Plus we like McGowan, who looks to be a real talent with an ability to keep the ball in the park.
Washington Nationals +110 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.10 units.
Back to third-order records. The Nats are terrible, but everyone knows that. They might not know that the Twins are also terrible, to the tune of a 29-41 third-order record. That's Nationals-level bad. Lannan looks to be a quality #3 type starter, and Livan is Livan. We'll take the .1 units on this tough-to-call game.
Kansas City Royals +129 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.29 units.
In an effort to protect my reputation, I will spare you the ugly details concerning the amount of research I put in to determining who Royals' starter Kyle Davies is and what he's done with his fledgling career. Suffice to say that I ultimately found it mildly comforting. Also comforting is the fact that Pujols, Molina and pretty much the entire Cardinals pitching staff is on the DL. Note that this pick is based on Piniero as projected starter, we've seen some conflicting reports as to who is taking the mound tonight.
Oakland A's +140 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.40 units.
The public is starting to catch on to the fact that the D-backs aren't as good as they first appeared. But they still love them some Brandon Webb. Hate betting against him, but this is too good a number to pass up for someone as talented as Duscherererer.
A note to the 5 people who read this carefully- if you have a BetUS account, you might want to take a look at the 2009 NCAA basketball futures. They appear not to have taken into account yesterday's news. That is all I will say, since I don't want the number to move before I get home and online today.
Euro Cup Tuesday
Italy +162 (Matchbook), 0.50 units to win 0.81 units
France and Italy are both desparate for a win today, needing the win to advance as long as Romania either Draws or loses against the Netherlands today (which is not a given considering all the players the Dutch will be resting today). Going into the tournament, I thought Italy was clearly the better team, so I'm going with them in the must-win situation today.
France and Italy are both desparate for a win today, needing the win to advance as long as Romania either Draws or loses against the Netherlands today (which is not a given considering all the players the Dutch will be resting today). Going into the tournament, I thought Italy was clearly the better team, so I'm going with them in the must-win situation today.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Monday's Miscellaneous
The records have finally been updated, and it's official: we have really sucked at baseball the past couple of weeks after being consistently ahead before that. Lots of time to turn that around, of course. The rest for today:
MLB
Braves +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Pretty close matchup, but we give the pitching edge to Jurrjens, assuming he doesn't hurt himself walking onto the field again.
Euro Cup
Germany -1 -145, 1.45 unit to win 1 unit
Most folks thought this game would be meaningless with the Germans having locked up the Group after their second game, but a bad performance against Croatia means this game is very important. Luckily, they get the worst team in the field today. If Germany gets up by one goal and then goes into defensive mode, we may end up with a push here, but we can't see Germany failing to win this one.
College World Series
Just posting the picks without explanation seemed to work yesterday, so let's try it again.
Florida State +160, 0.50 units to win 0.80 units
Georgia +136, 0.50 units to win 0.68 units
WNBA
Come on, you know you love these! I don't need to explain my thug.
Seattle -2.5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Gave a long-winded explanation on Saturday and missed by one point. So, let's just go back to saying that reasonably -priced home favorites seem to do well and leave it at that.
MLB
Braves +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Pretty close matchup, but we give the pitching edge to Jurrjens, assuming he doesn't hurt himself walking onto the field again.
Euro Cup
Germany -1 -145, 1.45 unit to win 1 unit
Most folks thought this game would be meaningless with the Germans having locked up the Group after their second game, but a bad performance against Croatia means this game is very important. Luckily, they get the worst team in the field today. If Germany gets up by one goal and then goes into defensive mode, we may end up with a push here, but we can't see Germany failing to win this one.
College World Series
Just posting the picks without explanation seemed to work yesterday, so let's try it again.
Florida State +160, 0.50 units to win 0.80 units
Georgia +136, 0.50 units to win 0.68 units
WNBA
Come on, you know you love these! I don't need to explain my thug.
Seattle -2.5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Gave a long-winded explanation on Saturday and missed by one point. So, let's just go back to saying that reasonably -priced home favorites seem to do well and leave it at that.
Golf, etc.
This may not be of much use given the limited time before they tee off, but Rocco Mediate is the obvious play today. Is Tiger gonna win? Yeah, chances are he will. He probably slept soundly last night, while Rocco might be a bit nervous today and the extra 18 hours to think about winning a major sure won't help him. But if you can get +305 in a head-to-head between two guys who played to a draw on the same course over four days, you take it, especially if you're NOT betting on the guy who has a bad knee and shot the higher score yesterday.
Rocco Mediate +305 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.52 units (rounded down to avoid appearance of impropriety).
In other news, I asked Hambone about these WNBA plays he's been posting lately. Taking his cue from Caron Butler, he told me "I ain't got to justify my thug." Well put.
Finally, not sure if they'll be any baseball plays today. My two leans (Marlins and Mets) are both dealing with extreme travel circumstances that make me a bit gun-shy. Marlins are coming off a Florida-to-Seattle trip, and Mets are coming off a double-header and then a west coast trip. This new theory that road teams are down this year because of the lack of greenies is amusing, but also unsettling when contemplating a wager on a road team coming off a long haul.
Rocco Mediate +305 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.52 units (rounded down to avoid appearance of impropriety).
In other news, I asked Hambone about these WNBA plays he's been posting lately. Taking his cue from Caron Butler, he told me "I ain't got to justify my thug." Well put.
Finally, not sure if they'll be any baseball plays today. My two leans (Marlins and Mets) are both dealing with extreme travel circumstances that make me a bit gun-shy. Marlins are coming off a Florida-to-Seattle trip, and Mets are coming off a double-header and then a west coast trip. This new theory that road teams are down this year because of the lack of greenies is amusing, but also unsettling when contemplating a wager on a road team coming off a long haul.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!
A little under the weather today (not hungover, actually sick), so I did the homework and I'm going to just post the plays without explanation:
MLB
Bluejays -110, 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Marlins +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Twins +121, 1 units to win 1.21 units
Astros +117, 1 unit to win 1.17 units
College World Series
Fresno State +200, 0.50 units to win 1 unit
UNC -160, 1.60 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Lakers -4 -105 1st half, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
_
MLB
Bluejays -110, 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Marlins +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Twins +121, 1 units to win 1.21 units
Astros +117, 1 unit to win 1.17 units
College World Series
Fresno State +200, 0.50 units to win 1 unit
UNC -160, 1.60 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Lakers -4 -105 1st half, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
_
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Saturday Night
MLB
Astros +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Wandy at home has been money the last couple of seasons. The Astros hitters who have faced Mussina have hit him very well. We'll take the home dog.
Braves +160, 1 unit to win 1.60 units
A hitting edge for the Braves like last night. The kid starting for the Braves (Charlie Morton) has been tearing it up at AAA in Richmond, and is worth a try at this number.
Giants +119, 1 unit to win 1.19 units
San Francisco has really been hitting the ball well lately, plus we get one of Grover's favorite pitchers to wager on. Another home dog, please.
And, for Brian's ladies........
WNBA
New York -2, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Two teams going in opposite directions. The Lynx have lost 3 out of 4, including the last 2 at home. Starting 3 rookies, their up-and-down results are to be expected, but we're getting a great number here because of their fast start to the season a few weeks ago. Liberty have won 3 out of 4, and have won 5 straight against Minnesota. Enjoy, Brian (and friends), I'm off to shoot myself for typing this paragraph.
Astros +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Wandy at home has been money the last couple of seasons. The Astros hitters who have faced Mussina have hit him very well. We'll take the home dog.
Braves +160, 1 unit to win 1.60 units
A hitting edge for the Braves like last night. The kid starting for the Braves (Charlie Morton) has been tearing it up at AAA in Richmond, and is worth a try at this number.
Giants +119, 1 unit to win 1.19 units
San Francisco has really been hitting the ball well lately, plus we get one of Grover's favorite pitchers to wager on. Another home dog, please.
And, for Brian's ladies........
WNBA
New York -2, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Two teams going in opposite directions. The Lynx have lost 3 out of 4, including the last 2 at home. Starting 3 rookies, their up-and-down results are to be expected, but we're getting a great number here because of their fast start to the season a few weeks ago. Liberty have won 3 out of 4, and have won 5 straight against Minnesota. Enjoy, Brian (and friends), I'm off to shoot myself for typing this paragraph.
Saturday Afternoon
Actually won some money again yesterday. Hopefully, things are turning around. Grover is off at a wedding today, and I promised him I would get to updating the record before the end of the day. Not a lot of afternoon action today, but played one game in 3 different sports:
MLB
Cardinals +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Lohse and Eaton have pitched well lately, the only difference being that Adam Eaton still sucks. The line looks a little screwy after the 20-2 demolition last night. Should be fairly close, so we'll take the home team getting the better number.
College World Series
Florida State -165, 1.65 units to win 1 unit
Better in all phases of the game than Stanford, who I really didn't think would make it this far. Congratulations to them, but they are not in the same league as the Noles.
Euro Cup
Spain -149, 1.49 units to win 1 unit
While Sweden was busy during qualifying losing to the USA, Drawing with Turkey, and barely squeezing past Slovenia (1-0), Spain was rolling through its group finishing with 5 straight wins over this Sweden team (3-0), N. Ireland, France, Italy, and Peru. I hate to put this kind of juice out there on these last 2 picks, but sometimes it's worth it. Good luck everybody. Back later with tonight's picks.
_
MLB
Cardinals +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Lohse and Eaton have pitched well lately, the only difference being that Adam Eaton still sucks. The line looks a little screwy after the 20-2 demolition last night. Should be fairly close, so we'll take the home team getting the better number.
College World Series
Florida State -165, 1.65 units to win 1 unit
Better in all phases of the game than Stanford, who I really didn't think would make it this far. Congratulations to them, but they are not in the same league as the Noles.
Euro Cup
Spain -149, 1.49 units to win 1 unit
While Sweden was busy during qualifying losing to the USA, Drawing with Turkey, and barely squeezing past Slovenia (1-0), Spain was rolling through its group finishing with 5 straight wins over this Sweden team (3-0), N. Ireland, France, Italy, and Peru. I hate to put this kind of juice out there on these last 2 picks, but sometimes it's worth it. Good luck everybody. Back later with tonight's picks.
_
Friday, June 13, 2008
Sports Smorgasbord
A good friend of the blog (shout-out to Brian and friends!) is in Vegas this weekend with some friends and wanted us to make sure we posted a variety of picks the next couple of days. Here we go:
MLB:
Royals +125, 1 unit to win 1.25 units
Although neither has been sharp lately, Greinke is a little more talented than Davis, and we give the Royals hitters a slight edge over the D-Backs tonight.
Braves +130, 1 unit to win 1.30 units
See Grover's post below. Braves offense too good tonight.
Euro Cup 2008
Romania/Italy DRAW +260, 0.50 units to win 1.30 units
Everyone is on Italy today, and they should be looking to score, but just like with Monday's game with France, Romania will play hard defensively as a Draw is a victory against the mighty Italians.
Netherlands/France DRAW +214, 0.50 units to win 1.07 units
Netherlands will still be in the lead of the Group of Death with a Draw, and I think they'll play conservatively to that end.
US Open Golf
Mickelson +105 to shoot a lower score than Tiger in Round 2, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Tiger wakes up with a sore knee this morning. Even if the knee is fine, he usually doesn't really get going until Saturday in any tournament. Phil was not intimidated yesterday at all.
WNBA
San Antonio -1.5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
For Brian's female companions, here's one for the ladies. Huge difference between home and road performance in the WNBA. At home, Seattle would win this game by 10+. On the road, they'll likely lose by 6 or 7.
MLB:
Royals +125, 1 unit to win 1.25 units
Although neither has been sharp lately, Greinke is a little more talented than Davis, and we give the Royals hitters a slight edge over the D-Backs tonight.
Braves +130, 1 unit to win 1.30 units
See Grover's post below. Braves offense too good tonight.
Euro Cup 2008
Romania/Italy DRAW +260, 0.50 units to win 1.30 units
Everyone is on Italy today, and they should be looking to score, but just like with Monday's game with France, Romania will play hard defensively as a Draw is a victory against the mighty Italians.
Netherlands/France DRAW +214, 0.50 units to win 1.07 units
Netherlands will still be in the lead of the Group of Death with a Draw, and I think they'll play conservatively to that end.
US Open Golf
Mickelson +105 to shoot a lower score than Tiger in Round 2, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Tiger wakes up with a sore knee this morning. Even if the knee is fine, he usually doesn't really get going until Saturday in any tournament. Phil was not intimidated yesterday at all.
WNBA
San Antonio -1.5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
For Brian's female companions, here's one for the ladies. Huge difference between home and road performance in the WNBA. At home, Seattle would win this game by 10+. On the road, they'll likely lose by 6 or 7.
Braves, Angels and Dorks
This weekend the Atlanta Braves are in Anaheim to take on the Angels. This series highlights a concept I like to lean on in June and July- third order records as calculated by Baseball Prospectus.
In a nutshell, here's how it works: First, the BP folks calculate what they call the "Pythangenport" expected win-loss records for each team. I'll spare you the details and just say that they are derived from the number of runs scored and allowed by the team thus far. This is the team's first-order record. Then they adjust the records based on Equivalent Runs instead of actual runs. Again, I'll spare you the details and just say that it's a calculation that removes some of the vagaries of chance in run production. This win-loss record based on Equivalent Runs is the team's second-order record. Finally, they adjust those numbers to account for strength of schedule. Voila ... third-order win-loss record. It's a great way to measure a team's true performance, one that the casual better is presumably not aware of.
If you look at the adjusted standings, you'll notice that two of the most significant outliers in MLB this season are the Angels (actual record 41-26, third order record approx. 33-34) and the Braves (actual record 32-35, third-order record approx. 37-30). This means the casual observer/better will presumably overvalue the Angels and undervalue the Braves. This is heightened by the statisical anomaly that is the Braves' road woes, as highlighted by Hambone a few weeks back. One could argue that the numbers are misleading because the Angels have been without their ace, John Lackey, for the better part of this season. But guess what? Lackey's not in line to pitch this weekend against the Braves.
Now I'm certainly not guaranteeing the Braves will come out and sweep the Angels this weekend. The opposite could happen. All I'm saying is that this weekend's series presents a rare opportunity to get a presumed edge at the books, and when such opportunities arise, it makes sense to act. I'm guessing the Braves will get significant underdog lines in all three games. You can use the above information however you like- I know how I'll be using it.
In a nutshell, here's how it works: First, the BP folks calculate what they call the "Pythangenport" expected win-loss records for each team. I'll spare you the details and just say that they are derived from the number of runs scored and allowed by the team thus far. This is the team's first-order record. Then they adjust the records based on Equivalent Runs instead of actual runs. Again, I'll spare you the details and just say that it's a calculation that removes some of the vagaries of chance in run production. This win-loss record based on Equivalent Runs is the team's second-order record. Finally, they adjust those numbers to account for strength of schedule. Voila ... third-order win-loss record. It's a great way to measure a team's true performance, one that the casual better is presumably not aware of.
If you look at the adjusted standings, you'll notice that two of the most significant outliers in MLB this season are the Angels (actual record 41-26, third order record approx. 33-34) and the Braves (actual record 32-35, third-order record approx. 37-30). This means the casual observer/better will presumably overvalue the Angels and undervalue the Braves. This is heightened by the statisical anomaly that is the Braves' road woes, as highlighted by Hambone a few weeks back. One could argue that the numbers are misleading because the Angels have been without their ace, John Lackey, for the better part of this season. But guess what? Lackey's not in line to pitch this weekend against the Braves.
Now I'm certainly not guaranteeing the Braves will come out and sweep the Angels this weekend. The opposite could happen. All I'm saying is that this weekend's series presents a rare opportunity to get a presumed edge at the books, and when such opportunities arise, it makes sense to act. I'm guessing the Braves will get significant underdog lines in all three games. You can use the above information however you like- I know how I'll be using it.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
A Good Day to Call In Sick
If you're a sports fan, you have to think about calling in sick today. The U.S. Open gets underway, Euro 2008 continues with a quality Germany-Croatia matchup at noon (followed by a stinker at 2:30), and we've got the usual helping of Thursday afternoon baseball, including a great Haren vs. Santana matchup in Queens. Tivo's not an option either- Game 4 of the NBA Finals is tonight. I need to get a TV in my office. There's a cable wire just dangling from the ceiling, taunting me.
We'll start with the baseball. Winning day yesterday, thanks to Jurrjens apparently twisting his ankle on the clubhouse steps(?) and negating our Braves wager. Thanks, Jair. Three more underdogs today, all lines from Matchbook:
San Francisco Giants +111, 1 unit to win 1.11 units.
This matchup looks boring. It is boring. Sanchez and Reynolds starting for 2 NL bottom-feeders. However, a little digging reveals that Sanchez is by far the superior talent. The Rockies are playing the role of favorite because they have won 6 of 7 and are at home, but many of their recent wins have come in relatively low-scoring games. The Giants offense, meanwhile, seems to have finally started hitting like real live major leaguers, and has put up a lot of crooked numbers in the last week or two.
Minnesota Twins +173, 1 unit to win 1.73 units.
I'm not gonna try to convince you that Livan is better than Aaron Laffey, or that the Twins have more offensive firepower than the Indians. But you know what you're getting with Livan, and the Indians offense is banged up. +173 is simply a good price. Interesting note- the Indians are the last team in the majors that Livan has not faced. Also, I can't remember if I've done my "Travis Hafner was on Steroids" routine on the blog, but well, he was. Giant head and jaw, premature balding, huge power numbers that dropped off the cliff in the last two years when MLB started testing. "Curious" would be putting it mildly.
Baltimore Orioles +152, 1 unit to win 1.52 units.
I was a Guthrie skeptic, and still am, but if he's good enough for O's hater Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus to project as a #3 starter on a quality team down the road, that's good enough for me. At least in a matchup with Jon Lester, who probably projects similarly. Plus Lester is a lefty and Guthrie a righty- lefties have always struggled at Fenway, and Lester's great numbers there are almost certainly a product of small sample size. Obviously the Boston bats shift things in the Sox favor, but it's not a +152 shift. So we'll take the big number here.
We'll start with the baseball. Winning day yesterday, thanks to Jurrjens apparently twisting his ankle on the clubhouse steps(?) and negating our Braves wager. Thanks, Jair. Three more underdogs today, all lines from Matchbook:
San Francisco Giants +111, 1 unit to win 1.11 units.
This matchup looks boring. It is boring. Sanchez and Reynolds starting for 2 NL bottom-feeders. However, a little digging reveals that Sanchez is by far the superior talent. The Rockies are playing the role of favorite because they have won 6 of 7 and are at home, but many of their recent wins have come in relatively low-scoring games. The Giants offense, meanwhile, seems to have finally started hitting like real live major leaguers, and has put up a lot of crooked numbers in the last week or two.
Minnesota Twins +173, 1 unit to win 1.73 units.
I'm not gonna try to convince you that Livan is better than Aaron Laffey, or that the Twins have more offensive firepower than the Indians. But you know what you're getting with Livan, and the Indians offense is banged up. +173 is simply a good price. Interesting note- the Indians are the last team in the majors that Livan has not faced. Also, I can't remember if I've done my "Travis Hafner was on Steroids" routine on the blog, but well, he was. Giant head and jaw, premature balding, huge power numbers that dropped off the cliff in the last two years when MLB started testing. "Curious" would be putting it mildly.
Baltimore Orioles +152, 1 unit to win 1.52 units.
I was a Guthrie skeptic, and still am, but if he's good enough for O's hater Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus to project as a #3 starter on a quality team down the road, that's good enough for me. At least in a matchup with Jon Lester, who probably projects similarly. Plus Lester is a lefty and Guthrie a righty- lefties have always struggled at Fenway, and Lester's great numbers there are almost certainly a product of small sample size. Obviously the Boston bats shift things in the Sox favor, but it's not a +152 shift. So we'll take the big number here.
Thursday Tennis
Just the picks this morning, lines from Matchbook:
M. Youzhny -125 over N. Kiefer (Weber Open), 0.63 units to win 0.50 units
F. Gonzalez +136 over I. Karlovic (Artois), 0.50 units to win 0.68 units
M. Youzhny -125 over N. Kiefer (Weber Open), 0.63 units to win 0.50 units
F. Gonzalez +136 over I. Karlovic (Artois), 0.50 units to win 0.68 units
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
The Rest of the Wednesday Picks
Man, I leave Hambone at the controls for a long weekend, and the place goes all to hell. He's asked me to take the reins in an effort to shake things up. Exactly the sort of superstitious crap I swear against.
The rest of the baseball plays for today:
Atlanta Braves +145 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.45 units.
This line is presumably a product of the Braves' road record and the Cubs' home record. At least that's the only explanation I can think of, since the pitchers' 2008 numbers are similar, Dempster has not fared well against the Braves as a reliever, and the teams third-order records are similar. Sure, the Braves are without Chipper Jones, but it's not like that guy's been any good this season, right? Anyway, we think the home/road splits of those two teams are for the most part a statistical anomaly, so we'll play the +145 on the team that looks more like a +120 to us.
Orioles +160 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.6 units.
I mentioned last week that BetUS sometimes has some wacky numbers. Apaprently they really hate the Orioles- this game is +145 at Matchbook right now. Kudos to our friends, who noticed a +205 at BetUS in yesterday's game and won an extra .2 units for their troubles. We'll try it again today. Bartolo Colon's chins are no doubt relieved that the Northeast heat wave has broken, but we still see him regressing from his quality start as the season wears on. Getting a good number here, so we'll fade the fat guy. It's a shame, since they're so jolly. So it goes.
Somewhat off topic: I usually don't bet golf, but my personal opinion is that the U.S. Open presents a unique opportunity for some value plays. Phil and Tiger, who usually get ridiculously bad odds anyway, will likely be getting even better odds in this tournament when they should not be. Reasons: (1) Phil and Tiger have an amazing record of success at Torrey Pines, and the public will certainly be made aware of that in previews and whatnot, but the course they'll play tomorrow does not even remotely resemble the place where they tee up the Buick Invitational. See this Washington Post article for details. As with other Open tracks, it will more severely punish wayward drives. Hmmm. (2) Tiger's knee injury is still too much of a question mark. These two guys combined will probably get even money at the books, but given the stuff I just mentioned and the fact that it's, you know, golf, they shouldn't be. The Money Line Journal has an excellent history of golf picks, I recommend looking there for a "long shot" or two to add a little something to your weekend action. Especially if, say, you're heading to Vegas. Don't get me wrong, if my life depended on picking the winner of the Open I'd still go with Tiger and probably Phil as my #2, but in the long run, it's all about getting value.
Completely off-topic: my girlfriend is very upset about the new season of Carlos Mencia, and told me I should put something on "my blog" asking if anyone could explain his appeal, or, in the alternative, if anyone wanted to help her form a group to get him permanently banned from television for lack of talent and for being incredibly annoying. Please respond in the comments.
The rest of the baseball plays for today:
Atlanta Braves +145 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.45 units.
This line is presumably a product of the Braves' road record and the Cubs' home record. At least that's the only explanation I can think of, since the pitchers' 2008 numbers are similar, Dempster has not fared well against the Braves as a reliever, and the teams third-order records are similar. Sure, the Braves are without Chipper Jones, but it's not like that guy's been any good this season, right? Anyway, we think the home/road splits of those two teams are for the most part a statistical anomaly, so we'll play the +145 on the team that looks more like a +120 to us.
Orioles +160 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.6 units.
I mentioned last week that BetUS sometimes has some wacky numbers. Apaprently they really hate the Orioles- this game is +145 at Matchbook right now. Kudos to our friends, who noticed a +205 at BetUS in yesterday's game and won an extra .2 units for their troubles. We'll try it again today. Bartolo Colon's chins are no doubt relieved that the Northeast heat wave has broken, but we still see him regressing from his quality start as the season wears on. Getting a good number here, so we'll fade the fat guy. It's a shame, since they're so jolly. So it goes.
Somewhat off topic: I usually don't bet golf, but my personal opinion is that the U.S. Open presents a unique opportunity for some value plays. Phil and Tiger, who usually get ridiculously bad odds anyway, will likely be getting even better odds in this tournament when they should not be. Reasons: (1) Phil and Tiger have an amazing record of success at Torrey Pines, and the public will certainly be made aware of that in previews and whatnot, but the course they'll play tomorrow does not even remotely resemble the place where they tee up the Buick Invitational. See this Washington Post article for details. As with other Open tracks, it will more severely punish wayward drives. Hmmm. (2) Tiger's knee injury is still too much of a question mark. These two guys combined will probably get even money at the books, but given the stuff I just mentioned and the fact that it's, you know, golf, they shouldn't be. The Money Line Journal has an excellent history of golf picks, I recommend looking there for a "long shot" or two to add a little something to your weekend action. Especially if, say, you're heading to Vegas. Don't get me wrong, if my life depended on picking the winner of the Open I'd still go with Tiger and probably Phil as my #2, but in the long run, it's all about getting value.
Completely off-topic: my girlfriend is very upset about the new season of Carlos Mencia, and told me I should put something on "my blog" asking if anyone could explain his appeal, or, in the alternative, if anyone wanted to help her form a group to get him permanently banned from television for lack of talent and for being incredibly annoying. Please respond in the comments.
Early Pick
Getting this up now, since the game starts at 12:30:
Seattle Mariners +122 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.22.
Going for the Mariners and against the Jays here, both of which are unusual for us. However, Marcum has a 2008 BABIP of .215. He's an average pitcher having a great year in large part due to luck. Felix Hernandez is the better pitcher by a good bit. Seattle offense is terrible, but getting +122 and the better of the pitching matchup is difficult to pass up.
Seattle Mariners +122 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.22.
Going for the Mariners and against the Jays here, both of which are unusual for us. However, Marcum has a 2008 BABIP of .215. He's an average pitcher having a great year in large part due to luck. Felix Hernandez is the better pitcher by a good bit. Seattle offense is terrible, but getting +122 and the better of the pitching matchup is difficult to pass up.
Wimbledon Warmup Wednesday
I can't pick my nose the past few days, but I'm going to make one tennis pick for each of the 3 grass court tournaments in play, and then probably turn the blog over to Grover for a couple of days so I don't shoot myself in the face.
A. Seppi +160 over E. Gulbis, 0.50 units to win 0.80 units
T. Berdych -130 over R. Soderling, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units
E. Korolev +190 over P. Starace, 0.50 units to win 0.95 units
_
A. Seppi +160 over E. Gulbis, 0.50 units to win 0.80 units
T. Berdych -130 over R. Soderling, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units
E. Korolev +190 over P. Starace, 0.50 units to win 0.95 units
_
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
The Rest for Tuesday
Here's the rest for this afternoon and tonight:
MLB
Orioles +190, 1 unit to win 1.90 units
Don't trust Cabrera, because he can go from brilliant one game to wild in the next, BUT at +190 it's worth a chance that he'll be brilliant tonight. Orioles have hit Beckett better than most teams.
Rays +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Grover's Rays (not his favorite team, just the one he has a big Over wins bet on) with Shields getting the underdog money. Shields the underdog to Weaver? Please.
Padres -128, 1.28 units to win 1 unit
Our gut instinct is to go against big-name pitchers on the down side of their career, but Maddux has been great this year, Kershaw has not impressed, and the Dodgers cannot hit at all (need Furcal back). At home, San Diego gets this one.
Euro Cup
Greece +222, 0.50 units to win 1.11 units
Still pissed about yesterday, and the early game pick looks like a loser. Greece looks like a much better team than Sweden to me. A lot of people want to talk about Greece's 2004 Euro Cup Championship as a fluke, and maybe it was, but that has nothing to do with their prospects in today's match. Greece beat Portugal and the Czech Republic recently, which is a lot more than the Swedes can say.
WNBA (sssshhhhh, don't tell Grover)
Minnesota -3.5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Like I said in the only other WNBA post, you're looking for home favorites at reasonable numbers in this "sport." Minnesota suffered its only loss of the season at Connecticut last week by 1 point. They'll return the favor tonight. I'm so ashamed.......
_
MLB
Orioles +190, 1 unit to win 1.90 units
Don't trust Cabrera, because he can go from brilliant one game to wild in the next, BUT at +190 it's worth a chance that he'll be brilliant tonight. Orioles have hit Beckett better than most teams.
Rays +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Grover's Rays (not his favorite team, just the one he has a big Over wins bet on) with Shields getting the underdog money. Shields the underdog to Weaver? Please.
Padres -128, 1.28 units to win 1 unit
Our gut instinct is to go against big-name pitchers on the down side of their career, but Maddux has been great this year, Kershaw has not impressed, and the Dodgers cannot hit at all (need Furcal back). At home, San Diego gets this one.
Euro Cup
Greece +222, 0.50 units to win 1.11 units
Still pissed about yesterday, and the early game pick looks like a loser. Greece looks like a much better team than Sweden to me. A lot of people want to talk about Greece's 2004 Euro Cup Championship as a fluke, and maybe it was, but that has nothing to do with their prospects in today's match. Greece beat Portugal and the Czech Republic recently, which is a lot more than the Swedes can say.
WNBA (sssshhhhh, don't tell Grover)
Minnesota -3.5, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Like I said in the only other WNBA post, you're looking for home favorites at reasonable numbers in this "sport." Minnesota suffered its only loss of the season at Connecticut last week by 1 point. They'll return the favor tonight. I'm so ashamed.......
_
Tuesday Soccer
Running out of time. After missing out on the France Draw yesterday, I'm not going to miss this one.
Spain/Russia DRAW +270 (Matchbook), 0.50 units to win 1.35 units
Grover likes it, and everything he liked yesterday was an easy winner. Hoping his genius continues today.
Spain/Russia DRAW +270 (Matchbook), 0.50 units to win 1.35 units
Grover likes it, and everything he liked yesterday was an easy winner. Hoping his genius continues today.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Tuesday Morning Tennis
Wow, we would have made some decent money Monday if I had gotten the soccer play in, and if Grover had played the baseball games he mentioned in his last post. My exact words in my Sunday night e-mail to Grover were "What do you think about France/Romania DRAW +230 tomorrow? With France's injuries, that looks like a 0-0 tie to me." Believe it or not, I swear to God that what's I wrote. And then like a dumbass, didn't get back to a computer in time to play it. I'm going to have to quit my job so things like that don't happen anymore. Of course, I won't be able to eat if I do that.....
In the Wimbledon warmup tourneys for early Tuesday, lines from WSEX:
The Artois Championship
F. Lopez +110 over N. Mahut, 0.50 units to win 0.55 units
A Spaniard who is really good on grass. What are the odds? Oh yeah, I just typed them. Lean to the North Carolina kid Isner in his match as well, but not playing it.
The Orange Warsaw Open
G. Canas -120 over L. Horna, 0.60 units over 0.50 units
Better player, but very tiny juice. I'll bite.
The Gerry Weber Open
I. Ljubicic +100 over M. Llodra, 0.50 units to win 0.50 units
Better on this surface and getting the better number.
Good luck everybody. Baseball and soccer later tomorrow.
_
In the Wimbledon warmup tourneys for early Tuesday, lines from WSEX:
The Artois Championship
F. Lopez +110 over N. Mahut, 0.50 units to win 0.55 units
A Spaniard who is really good on grass. What are the odds? Oh yeah, I just typed them. Lean to the North Carolina kid Isner in his match as well, but not playing it.
The Orange Warsaw Open
G. Canas -120 over L. Horna, 0.60 units over 0.50 units
Better player, but very tiny juice. I'll bite.
The Gerry Weber Open
I. Ljubicic +100 over M. Llodra, 0.50 units to win 0.50 units
Better on this surface and getting the better number.
Good luck everybody. Baseball and soccer later tomorrow.
_
Unbridled Rage
Hambone is officially out of commission today. He wanted to play France-Romania Draw at +208 and the Kansas City Royals at +215 this afternoon, and I liked them and signed off on them both, but he got stuck in a meeting. Work. It's a bitch. As such, our ugly numbers to the left persist, as does the Hambone Suicide Watch. It got even worse when I told him that I played the Celtics in both NBA games over the weekend, as he did, but he didn't post the picks because of my declared sitewide NBA boycott.
Anyway, I think his wife is talking him off the ledge as I write, so no picks tonight. I myself like a couple of small favorites, the Giants at -124 and the Reds at -127. The Nats are in bad shape- yesterday they didn't even have enough healthy personnel to do a double-switch when they brought in their first reliever- and my love of Cain is well-documented. As for Volquez, he doesn't look like a flash in the pan, and the Marlins' adjusted run differential suggests that they are a .500 team at best. Since they clearly have the better of this pitching matchup, I like the Reds even at that number. Alas, no official posts without our man Hambone on board.
Back tomorrow with a full card.
Anyway, I think his wife is talking him off the ledge as I write, so no picks tonight. I myself like a couple of small favorites, the Giants at -124 and the Reds at -127. The Nats are in bad shape- yesterday they didn't even have enough healthy personnel to do a double-switch when they brought in their first reliever- and my love of Cain is well-documented. As for Volquez, he doesn't look like a flash in the pan, and the Marlins' adjusted run differential suggests that they are a .500 team at best. Since they clearly have the better of this pitching matchup, I like the Reds even at that number. Alas, no official posts without our man Hambone on board.
Back tomorrow with a full card.
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Sunday Afternoon Comeback
Enough whining. Back to business. Family obligations kept me from getting back to the computer to do the night games yesterday. I think I would have played a loser in MLB and a winner in the CWS, so no real harm done. For the early contests:
MLB
Mariners +127, 1 unit to win 1.27 units
Bedard as the underdog, when the Red Sox don't ever seem to hit him well. Worth a shot at this number.
Pirates -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Better pitcher, better hitters, at home. That little amount of juice can't scare me off of this one.
Astros -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
Ditto.
Twins +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units
Slowey has been pitching really well lately, and we're still waiting for the Gavin Floyd blowup. This game is really close, but we're getting a decent underdog number here.
College World Series
Coastal Carolina +400, 0.50 units to win 2 units
I know I'm contractually obligated to cheer for the Tar Heels now based on an earlier post, but that doesn't mean I have to bet on them every time. Really just a value bet here - the Heels are not 4 times better than the Chanticleers.
Wichita State +250, 0.50 units to win 1.25 units
I called their upset on Friday, and I still think this is a pretty close matchup. With this line, I can't lay off.
Georgia -180, 1.80 units to win 1 unit
A rare favorite, but I think UGA is far and away the better team, and they're playing at home in the elimination game. NC State has put up a good fight, but it ends today.
Euro Cup
Croatia -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
I still can't believe I didn't get that Draw yesterday. Switzerland had 2 great shots on goal and in the same sequence, the referees miss a Czech handball in the box that would've given the Swiss a penalty kick to tie the game. Dammit. As for Croatia, they have no excuse for not winning their match handily today. Austrian soccer fans circulated a petition begging the team not to participate in the tournament, even though they are a co-host, because of the potential for humiliation. That's bad. They're terrible. Croatia needs to get the 3 points in this one to have a good chance at getting past the Group stage.
MLB
Mariners +127, 1 unit to win 1.27 units
Bedard as the underdog, when the Red Sox don't ever seem to hit him well. Worth a shot at this number.
Pirates -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Better pitcher, better hitters, at home. That little amount of juice can't scare me off of this one.
Astros -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
Ditto.
Twins +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units
Slowey has been pitching really well lately, and we're still waiting for the Gavin Floyd blowup. This game is really close, but we're getting a decent underdog number here.
College World Series
Coastal Carolina +400, 0.50 units to win 2 units
I know I'm contractually obligated to cheer for the Tar Heels now based on an earlier post, but that doesn't mean I have to bet on them every time. Really just a value bet here - the Heels are not 4 times better than the Chanticleers.
Wichita State +250, 0.50 units to win 1.25 units
I called their upset on Friday, and I still think this is a pretty close matchup. With this line, I can't lay off.
Georgia -180, 1.80 units to win 1 unit
A rare favorite, but I think UGA is far and away the better team, and they're playing at home in the elimination game. NC State has put up a good fight, but it ends today.
Euro Cup
Croatia -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
I still can't believe I didn't get that Draw yesterday. Switzerland had 2 great shots on goal and in the same sequence, the referees miss a Czech handball in the box that would've given the Swiss a penalty kick to tie the game. Dammit. As for Croatia, they have no excuse for not winning their match handily today. Austrian soccer fans circulated a petition begging the team not to participate in the tournament, even though they are a co-host, because of the potential for humiliation. That's bad. They're terrible. Croatia needs to get the 3 points in this one to have a good chance at getting past the Group stage.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Saturday Afternoon Garbage
Well, the baseball slump continues. I can't bring myself to update the record quite yet (up over 6 units to start the week and now in the red), but I'll get it done before the weekend is over. This afternoon's losers, with no explanations (why bother?):
MLB
Orioles +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units
Cubs -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
College World Series
Texas A&M +170, 0.50 units to win 0.85 units
Euro Cup
Switzerland/Czech Republic DRAW +202, 0.50 units to win 1.01 units
MLB
Orioles +142, 1 unit to win 1.42 units
Cubs -117, 1.17 units to win 1 unit
College World Series
Texas A&M +170, 0.50 units to win 0.85 units
Euro Cup
Switzerland/Czech Republic DRAW +202, 0.50 units to win 1.01 units
Friday, June 6, 2008
Friday Night Potpourri
A random sampling from a couple of different sports.
MLB
The Wednesday night and Thursday picks were awfully frustrating. Yesterday, we lost 3 one-run games (2 in the 9th inning), plus in another game we lost our starting pitcher (Shields) in the 2nd inning (idiot). Hopefully, that garbage is over, gonna keep playing 'em the same way. Three for tonight, all lines from Matchbook:
Mariners +141, 1 unit to win 1.41 units
Grover would roll over in his grave if he knew I was playing Seattle. OK, he's out of town, not dead, but you get my meaning. George Costanza called and told me to do the opposite, so here we go. Really good number for King Felix. Don't trust Big Bartolo yet, and the M's have hit him well in the past. Maybe Manny and Youk will be too busy fighting to focus at the plate.
Twins +170, 1 unit to win 1.70 units
Blackburn pitching very well this season. Vazquez is also, but he's not the one getting +170.
Cubs +113, 1 unit to win 1.13 units
No team is hotter than the Cubs right now. Dodgers just cannot seem to get the offense going without Furcal. It's amazing how impotent they have been. Like Grover after about 15 beers. I mean, so I've heard...
College World Series
Cal State Fullerton -135, 0.68 units to win 0.50 units
Still keeping the bets small until we get a little further into the tournament. I like Fullerton to perform a little better in all phases tonight at home.
And, since Grover won't see a computer until Monday, one for the ladies.....
WNBA
New York Liberty -6, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Underdogs of 12 or more, and home faves between -2.5 and -7 or so. That's how to bet the WNBA. There, I've given away the secret. Enjoy. I'm so ashamed of myself.
Back tomorrow, hopefully with some Euro Cup action. Good luck everybody.
MLB
The Wednesday night and Thursday picks were awfully frustrating. Yesterday, we lost 3 one-run games (2 in the 9th inning), plus in another game we lost our starting pitcher (Shields) in the 2nd inning (idiot). Hopefully, that garbage is over, gonna keep playing 'em the same way. Three for tonight, all lines from Matchbook:
Mariners +141, 1 unit to win 1.41 units
Grover would roll over in his grave if he knew I was playing Seattle. OK, he's out of town, not dead, but you get my meaning. George Costanza called and told me to do the opposite, so here we go. Really good number for King Felix. Don't trust Big Bartolo yet, and the M's have hit him well in the past. Maybe Manny and Youk will be too busy fighting to focus at the plate.
Twins +170, 1 unit to win 1.70 units
Blackburn pitching very well this season. Vazquez is also, but he's not the one getting +170.
Cubs +113, 1 unit to win 1.13 units
No team is hotter than the Cubs right now. Dodgers just cannot seem to get the offense going without Furcal. It's amazing how impotent they have been. Like Grover after about 15 beers. I mean, so I've heard...
College World Series
Cal State Fullerton -135, 0.68 units to win 0.50 units
Still keeping the bets small until we get a little further into the tournament. I like Fullerton to perform a little better in all phases tonight at home.
And, since Grover won't see a computer until Monday, one for the ladies.....
WNBA
New York Liberty -6, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Underdogs of 12 or more, and home faves between -2.5 and -7 or so. That's how to bet the WNBA. There, I've given away the secret. Enjoy. I'm so ashamed of myself.
Back tomorrow, hopefully with some Euro Cup action. Good luck everybody.
College World Series - Friday Afternoon
Grover's out of town, so I can bet on anything I want. A couple small dogs in the amateur ranks:
N.C. State +140, 0.50 units to win 0.70 units
Wichita State +280, 0.25 units to win 0.70 units
N.C. State +140, 0.50 units to win 0.70 units
Wichita State +280, 0.25 units to win 0.70 units
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Thursday Night
Four more for the Thursday night action. Apaprently the hit we took last night is motivating us to try to win it all back in one shot. Classic compulsive gambling behavior.
Tampa Bay Rays +108 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.08.
This sets up perfectly. Shields, by far the lesser known of the Rays' two aces, goes up against Jon Lester, who is certainly talented but isn't nearly the pitcher Shields is. Throw in Lester's no-hitter and the Sox taking the first two of this much-publicized three-game set, and I don't have to tell you which way Joe Public is going at a 2 to 1 clip. The line hasn't really moved despite all those Sox plays. I wonder what that could mean.
Kansas City Royals +160 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.60.
Good chance to talk about line-shopping here. Now, I would never ever place a bet on the internet, nor do I condone such activity, but if I was the sort of scoundrel who engaged in such devious behavior, I would think about maintaining an account at BetUS. Although the juice is usually substantial, they seem to have lines that are out of whack more than any other site, so on occasion you can get value there. This game is an example. KC is +151 and the White Sox -155 at Matchbook, which almost always has the best lines. At BetUS it's +160 and -190. A lot more juice overall, but sometimes they're off by enough on one side of a game to make it worth your while.
Houston Astros +114 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.14.
I'm tired after writing all that stuff about line-shopping. Hambone likes the Astros, I like Backe. If you want more analysis, email my partner. He has an Astros fetish.
Dodgers -129 (Matchbook), 1.29 units to win 1.
Rare favorite play of more than -120 for us here. We love the way Billingsley's been pitching and have no faith whatsoever that Dempster's success so far is 2008 is sustainable. The only reason this number is small as -129 is because of their performances in the "surface" stats so far in 2008, a very small sample size. Billingsley is the better pitcher by no small margin; just ask that PECOTA guy that my trusty partner Hambone doesn't like. Or, you know, look at their career K/BB and WHIP numbers and whatnot (gotta look at Billingsley's minor league numbers though, since he doesn't have enough data at the major-league level yet).
Tampa Bay Rays +108 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.08.
This sets up perfectly. Shields, by far the lesser known of the Rays' two aces, goes up against Jon Lester, who is certainly talented but isn't nearly the pitcher Shields is. Throw in Lester's no-hitter and the Sox taking the first two of this much-publicized three-game set, and I don't have to tell you which way Joe Public is going at a 2 to 1 clip. The line hasn't really moved despite all those Sox plays. I wonder what that could mean.
Kansas City Royals +160 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.60.
Good chance to talk about line-shopping here. Now, I would never ever place a bet on the internet, nor do I condone such activity, but if I was the sort of scoundrel who engaged in such devious behavior, I would think about maintaining an account at BetUS. Although the juice is usually substantial, they seem to have lines that are out of whack more than any other site, so on occasion you can get value there. This game is an example. KC is +151 and the White Sox -155 at Matchbook, which almost always has the best lines. At BetUS it's +160 and -190. A lot more juice overall, but sometimes they're off by enough on one side of a game to make it worth your while.
Houston Astros +114 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.14.
I'm tired after writing all that stuff about line-shopping. Hambone likes the Astros, I like Backe. If you want more analysis, email my partner. He has an Astros fetish.
Dodgers -129 (Matchbook), 1.29 units to win 1.
Rare favorite play of more than -120 for us here. We love the way Billingsley's been pitching and have no faith whatsoever that Dempster's success so far is 2008 is sustainable. The only reason this number is small as -129 is because of their performances in the "surface" stats so far in 2008, a very small sample size. Billingsley is the better pitcher by no small margin; just ask that PECOTA guy that my trusty partner Hambone doesn't like. Or, you know, look at their career K/BB and WHIP numbers and whatnot (gotta look at Billingsley's minor league numbers though, since he doesn't have enough data at the major-league level yet).
Thursday Afternoon
A nice afternoon yesterday, followed by a crappy evening. Such is the gambling life. Just one for the early games today:
Bluejays +161 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.61 units
Mr. Wang has been awful in his last few starts, even at home. I don't know what's going on with him, but if they are going to give us this number against him, especially when he's in a slump, we're going to take it. Grover was trying to explain some kind of third order record statistical nonsense about the Bluejays, but my pea brain can't handle all that. Let's just say Grover really likes Wang, he especially likes taking Wang at home, but today he says he's just not feeling Wang. Wow, sometimes my immaturity even surprises me. Back later with tonight's picks.
Bluejays +161 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.61 units
Mr. Wang has been awful in his last few starts, even at home. I don't know what's going on with him, but if they are going to give us this number against him, especially when he's in a slump, we're going to take it. Grover was trying to explain some kind of third order record statistical nonsense about the Bluejays, but my pea brain can't handle all that. Let's just say Grover really likes Wang, he especially likes taking Wang at home, but today he says he's just not feeling Wang. Wow, sometimes my immaturity even surprises me. Back later with tonight's picks.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Lefty Wednesday - Night Moves
The rest for tonight, all lines from Matchbook:
Rays +174, 1 unit to win 1.74 units
This line looks completely insane, but apparently 70% of the bets are coming in on the Red Sox. We know Beckett is very good, but come on. Can't resist this one. Too much value.
Bluejays +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units
Litsch has been fantastic this season, and the Bluejays hitters usually blast the hell out of Mr. Mussina. Yankees lose! Yankees lose! Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees lose!
Rangers +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units
Texas is hitting far too well to be getting this line at home. Cliff Lee has been coming back to Earth recently, and Ponson has not been that bad (somewhat surprisingly). Rangers bats make the difference.
Rays +174, 1 unit to win 1.74 units
This line looks completely insane, but apparently 70% of the bets are coming in on the Red Sox. We know Beckett is very good, but come on. Can't resist this one. Too much value.
Bluejays +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units
Litsch has been fantastic this season, and the Bluejays hitters usually blast the hell out of Mr. Mussina. Yankees lose! Yankees lose! Theeeeeeeeeeee Yankees lose!
Rangers +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units
Texas is hitting far too well to be getting this line at home. Cliff Lee has been coming back to Earth recently, and Ponson has not been that bad (somewhat surprisingly). Rangers bats make the difference.
Lefty Wednesday - Afternoon Picks
I count eleven left-handed pitchers starting today. I'll have our stats department figure out what the record is. Two for this afternoon, both favorites:
Brewers -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
After starting the season poorly, Parra has pitched a lot better the past couple of weeks. He's still issuing more walks than I would like, but against a team that can't hit, he shouldn't get burned by a few free passes.
Angels -116, 1.16 units to win 1 unit
Silva is awful, and has been horrendous the last few starts. Pitching and hitting edge for the Angels this afternoon.
Brewers -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
After starting the season poorly, Parra has pitched a lot better the past couple of weeks. He's still issuing more walks than I would like, but against a team that can't hit, he shouldn't get burned by a few free passes.
Angels -116, 1.16 units to win 1 unit
Silva is awful, and has been horrendous the last few starts. Pitching and hitting edge for the Angels this afternoon.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Tuesday Baseball
Three for tonight, lines from Matchbook. Busy day at the real job, so no time for much rambling.
Rays +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Red Sox batters have not hit Garza very well in the few times they have faced each other. Ortiz couldn't hit him at all, but I'd rather go against the Sox with him out of the lineup anyway. Sox not hitting well versus righties lately. Rays should be able to take advantage of the rookie Masterson.
Royals +113, 1 unit to win 1.13 units
Tick....tick.....tick......Gavin Floyd's time is running out. Expect the implosion soon. MacGruber!
Reds +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
One of those that makes us fear we're getting suckered here. But, the pitching matchup is no contest and we're getting the dog money. We'll take the bait.
Rays +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Red Sox batters have not hit Garza very well in the few times they have faced each other. Ortiz couldn't hit him at all, but I'd rather go against the Sox with him out of the lineup anyway. Sox not hitting well versus righties lately. Rays should be able to take advantage of the rookie Masterson.
Royals +113, 1 unit to win 1.13 units
Tick....tick.....tick......Gavin Floyd's time is running out. Expect the implosion soon. MacGruber!
Reds +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
One of those that makes us fear we're getting suckered here. But, the pitching matchup is no contest and we're getting the dog money. We'll take the bait.
Monday, June 2, 2008
And the Rest.....
Two more for Monday night. Lines from Matchbook.
Reds +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units
Arroyo got off to a bad/unlucky start this season, and the resulting numbers (W/L, ERA) are giving us good value on this play tonight. He's the better pitcher by far in this game, with the hitting pretty close. Give us the dog.
Giants +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
We were hoping this line would rise during the afternoon as folks got their Mets bets in, but it didn't really budge. The rookie Sanchez has been pitching better than Oliver Perez, who is falling back into his old habits (wildness). Home team has the edge tonight, especially with the Mets flying across the country last night after the ESPN night game. Good luck everybody.
Reds +131, 1 unit to win 1.31 units
Arroyo got off to a bad/unlucky start this season, and the resulting numbers (W/L, ERA) are giving us good value on this play tonight. He's the better pitcher by far in this game, with the hitting pretty close. Give us the dog.
Giants +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
We were hoping this line would rise during the afternoon as folks got their Mets bets in, but it didn't really budge. The rookie Sanchez has been pitching better than Oliver Perez, who is falling back into his old habits (wildness). Home team has the edge tonight, especially with the Mets flying across the country last night after the ESPN night game. Good luck everybody.
One early pick for Monday
We're looking at a couple games today, but the line is moving away from us on the first one so we're getting it in before it moves further.
L.A. Angels blah blah blah (-128), 1.28 units to win 1 unit..
Ervin Santana is having a great season, showing great control, a quality K/BB ratio, and keeping the ball in the park. He's also 25, which happens to be the age when that "other" Santana broke out and took MLB by storm. And if you're the kind of person who prefers actual numbers to anecdotal B.S., I'll note that PECOTA assigns him a breakout rate of 34% and an improve rate of 66%. Incidentally, my apologies to my friend Brad for underrating him earlier this year without doing adequate research. Anyway, they're playing the Mariners, about whom I've said enough, and Jerrod Washburn, about whom nothing needs to be said. I think the relatively low line is a product of the Angels' semi-cold bats in the last couple of games and Santana's road troubles in the past. Extreme home/road splits over small sample sizes usually regress over time, so we'll go with the underpriced favorite here.
We're also looking at the Reds and the Giants, however both of those lines seem to be moving in our favor, so we're gonna wait a little bit and try to get a better price.
I'm asking Hambone to join me in boycotting the NBA because of this proposterous 6-day delay before Game 1 of the finals and even more preposterous three-day delay before Game 2. The boycott has nothing to do with our abysmal NBA record.
L.A. Angels blah blah blah (-128), 1.28 units to win 1 unit..
Ervin Santana is having a great season, showing great control, a quality K/BB ratio, and keeping the ball in the park. He's also 25, which happens to be the age when that "other" Santana broke out and took MLB by storm. And if you're the kind of person who prefers actual numbers to anecdotal B.S., I'll note that PECOTA assigns him a breakout rate of 34% and an improve rate of 66%. Incidentally, my apologies to my friend Brad for underrating him earlier this year without doing adequate research. Anyway, they're playing the Mariners, about whom I've said enough, and Jerrod Washburn, about whom nothing needs to be said. I think the relatively low line is a product of the Angels' semi-cold bats in the last couple of games and Santana's road troubles in the past. Extreme home/road splits over small sample sizes usually regress over time, so we'll go with the underpriced favorite here.
We're also looking at the Reds and the Giants, however both of those lines seem to be moving in our favor, so we're gonna wait a little bit and try to get a better price.
I'm asking Hambone to join me in boycotting the NBA because of this proposterous 6-day delay before Game 1 of the finals and even more preposterous three-day delay before Game 2. The boycott has nothing to do with our abysmal NBA record.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
French Open - Fourth Set Tiebreaker
Sunday may have been the first losing day I've had in this tournament. I can't believe it took this long for that to happen. Hopefully, I won't make 2 days in a row. For Monday, lines from Pinnacle:
I. Ljubicic -130 over G. Monfils, 0.65 units to win 0.50 units
Very impressive win over Davydenko for Ljubicic. I would not have picked that one. Ljubicic is serving very well and is the better overall player. Monfils will have home court advantage over the Croat, but in the end, the better player should prevail.
R. Ginepri +320 over F. Gonzalez, 0.25 units to win 0.80 units
Gonzalez has the better track record on clay, but Ginepri is playing too well in this tournament to resist that line. Ginepri has been working with the same guy who coached Michael Chang and Jim Courier to French Open wins and the improvement is obvious. Incidentally, it's the same coach that Roger Federer has been working with to improve his game on clay leading up to this tournament. Good value here for a player who has looked very sharp so far.
Sunday Afternoon Baseball
Off-day yesterday. Not much to like on the card today. Just one among the early games.
Rays -116 (Matchbook), 1.16 units to win 1 unit
Grover's favorite team is on a quite a roll and we're jumping on board today. Buehrle has not pitched well lately, and the Tampa hitters have a good history against him. Worth the small favorite price today.
Rays -116 (Matchbook), 1.16 units to win 1 unit
Grover's favorite team is on a quite a roll and we're jumping on board today. Buehrle has not pitched well lately, and the Tampa hitters have a good history against him. Worth the small favorite price today.
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