Man, I leave Hambone at the controls for a long weekend, and the place goes all to hell. He's asked me to take the reins in an effort to shake things up. Exactly the sort of superstitious crap I swear against.
The rest of the baseball plays for today:
Atlanta Braves +145 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.45 units.
This line is presumably a product of the Braves' road record and the Cubs' home record. At least that's the only explanation I can think of, since the pitchers' 2008 numbers are similar, Dempster has not fared well against the Braves as a reliever, and the teams third-order records are similar. Sure, the Braves are without Chipper Jones, but it's not like that guy's been any good this season, right? Anyway, we think the home/road splits of those two teams are for the most part a statistical anomaly, so we'll play the +145 on the team that looks more like a +120 to us.
Orioles +160 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.6 units.
I mentioned last week that BetUS sometimes has some wacky numbers. Apaprently they really hate the Orioles- this game is +145 at Matchbook right now. Kudos to our friends, who noticed a +205 at BetUS in yesterday's game and won an extra .2 units for their troubles. We'll try it again today. Bartolo Colon's chins are no doubt relieved that the Northeast heat wave has broken, but we still see him regressing from his quality start as the season wears on. Getting a good number here, so we'll fade the fat guy. It's a shame, since they're so jolly. So it goes.
Somewhat off topic: I usually don't bet golf, but my personal opinion is that the U.S. Open presents a unique opportunity for some value plays. Phil and Tiger, who usually get ridiculously bad odds anyway, will likely be getting even better odds in this tournament when they should not be. Reasons: (1) Phil and Tiger have an amazing record of success at Torrey Pines, and the public will certainly be made aware of that in previews and whatnot, but the course they'll play tomorrow does not even remotely resemble the place where they tee up the Buick Invitational. See this Washington Post article for details. As with other Open tracks, it will more severely punish wayward drives. Hmmm. (2) Tiger's knee injury is still too much of a question mark. These two guys combined will probably get even money at the books, but given the stuff I just mentioned and the fact that it's, you know, golf, they shouldn't be. The Money Line Journal has an excellent history of golf picks, I recommend looking there for a "long shot" or two to add a little something to your weekend action. Especially if, say, you're heading to Vegas. Don't get me wrong, if my life depended on picking the winner of the Open I'd still go with Tiger and probably Phil as my #2, but in the long run, it's all about getting value.
Completely off-topic: my girlfriend is very upset about the new season of Carlos Mencia, and told me I should put something on "my blog" asking if anyone could explain his appeal, or, in the alternative, if anyone wanted to help her form a group to get him permanently banned from television for lack of talent and for being incredibly annoying. Please respond in the comments.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment