Well-rested, sunburned, and hopefully clear-headed enough to pick some baseball winners. For Monday night:
MLB
Mariners +161 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.61 units
Grover hates the Mariners with a passion (not a personal animosity fan-wise, he just thinks they are hugely over-rated and usually he's right), but I talked him into this one. Felix Hernandez has been pitching great lately, the Mariners have hit Johan really well in the past, and have been hitting lefties really well in general lately. Oh, and did I mention we're getting +161?
Brewers -110 (Matchbook), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
When I started looking at this game, I expected to be leaning to the Braves. But, we ended up going the other way. Sheets is the better pitcher in tonight's game and the Brewers hitters are very good versus lefties. A little juice is OK in this spot.
College World Series
Georgia -125 (WSEX), 1.25 units to win 1 unit
The Bulldogs made a bold move on Saturday when they opted not to start their best pitcher (Holder) against Stanford, choosing to save him for a potential must-win game on Sunday if they lost Saturday or, as it turned out, for Game 1 of the Finals tonight. With Holder on the mound and plenty of power in the lineup tonight, Georgia should be too much for a weary Fresno State squad tonight.
I should be back later with Wimbledon picks for tomorrow. Good luck everybody.
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2 comments:
Constructive criticism- why do you look at how a pitcher has done against a certain team? It's pretty much always either small sample size, or irrelevant because there is so much roster turnover.
1. When I compare a pitcher's performance against another team's hitters, I'm not talking about how that pitcher has performed against the other team, I'm looking at how the individual hitters currently in the lineup have hit against that pitcher. I agree that just looking at the performance against a team could be irrelevant because of turnover, but that's not what I'm doing.
2. I understand what you're saying about the sample size. In this instance, there were a lot of Mariners hitters who have faced Santana a decent number of times from his Twins days. I think some hitters fare better against certain kinds or styles of pitchers and worse against others. It's only one of about a dozen different things I look at every day, but I get your point. Thanks for the comment, we're always trying to get better at this thing.
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