Friday Picks

So Hambone has run this operation completely into the ground and then handed me the keys as he heads for the hills. I feel the same way that Barack Obama is probably going to feel in about 8 months. Ha, political humor! Zing!

OK, let's get started on the slow road to recovery.

Toronto Blue Jays -147 (Matchbook), 1.47 units to win 1.

We rarely play big-name pitchers and also rarely play substantial favorites, but this is a case where the big name in question may be flying under the radar this year. His "surface" numbers are decent, but his K/BB ratio is obscene. With Nady out and Bay feeling sick, there's value in Halladay even at that substantial number


Atlanta Braves -121 (Matchbook), 1.21 unis to win 1.

Campillo is the real deal (I think that's the seventh or eighth time I've said that exact sentence in an email or blog post). We've written about the undervaluation of the Braves on the road ad nauseum. I won't bother going through it again. I have absolutely no problem playing the chalk here, Bedard or no Bedard.


Minnesota Twins -109 (Matchboook), 1.09 units to win 1.

Apparently it's favorites day here at Against All Odds. I feel dirty. At least this resembles our modus operandi, favoring a young pitcher who looks to be the real deal against an overvalued veteran "name." In this case it's Scott Baker, Minnesota's fantastic pitcher, against the Big Unit. Our dislike for the D-backs offense is also well-documented.


Baltimore Orioles +135 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1.35.

If we played all the favorites it just wouldn't be right. Rahames Liz is not great but is better than his 2008 stats suggest, and I'm on the record as anti-Suppan. Orioles magic continues for one more day.