Braves, Angels and Dorks

This weekend the Atlanta Braves are in Anaheim to take on the Angels. This series highlights a concept I like to lean on in June and July- third order records as calculated by Baseball Prospectus.

In a nutshell, here's how it works: First, the BP folks calculate what they call the "Pythangenport" expected win-loss records for each team. I'll spare you the details and just say that they are derived from the number of runs scored and allowed by the team thus far. This is the team's first-order record. Then they adjust the records based on Equivalent Runs instead of actual runs. Again, I'll spare you the details and just say that it's a calculation that removes some of the vagaries of chance in run production. This win-loss record based on Equivalent Runs is the team's second-order record. Finally, they adjust those numbers to account for strength of schedule. Voila ... third-order win-loss record. It's a great way to measure a team's true performance, one that the casual better is presumably not aware of.

If you look at the adjusted standings, you'll notice that two of the most significant outliers in MLB this season are the Angels (actual record 41-26, third order record approx. 33-34) and the Braves (actual record 32-35, third-order record approx. 37-30). This means the casual observer/better will presumably overvalue the Angels and undervalue the Braves. This is heightened by the statisical anomaly that is the Braves' road woes, as highlighted by Hambone a few weeks back. One could argue that the numbers are misleading because the Angels have been without their ace, John Lackey, for the better part of this season. But guess what? Lackey's not in line to pitch this weekend against the Braves.

Now I'm certainly not guaranteeing the Braves will come out and sweep the Angels this weekend. The opposite could happen. All I'm saying is that this weekend's series presents a rare opportunity to get a presumed edge at the books, and when such opportunities arise, it makes sense to act. I'm guessing the Braves will get significant underdog lines in all three games. You can use the above information however you like- I know how I'll be using it.