Cubs/Dodgers Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Dempster vs. Lowe

Dempster's only edge in this matchup is in strikeouts (8.14 K/9 for Dempster, 6.27 for Lowe). However, because of his larger walk rate, Lowe actually has the clear advantage in K/BB (Lowe = 3.27, Dempster = 2.46). Other stats pretty even, but because of all the free passes issued by Dempster, we're gonna say....

Edge: Lowe


Game 2: Zambrano vs. Billingsley

Somewhat surprisingly, Big Z doesn't really have a clear advantage in any category, other than number of bats broken over his knee. Zambrano's K/BB is less than 2, and Billingsley has a huge advantage in strikeouts, while issuing a roughly equal rate of walks. Zambrano's FIP is 4.24 and HR/9 is 0.86, which are far and away the worst of all the pitchers starting the first 3 games of this series.

Edge: Billingsley (not really even close)


Game 3: Harden vs. Kuroda

Harden's 11.01 K/9 is ridiculously good, and his WHIP of 1.06 this season is too. Kuroda is pretty close to even in most categories, and has the superior walk rate, but isn't quite on the same level in sitting down hitters.

Edge: Harden (I think I'm required to say, "assuming he's healthy," here)

Game 4: Matchup unknown (could be Dempster/Lowe on 3 days rest, or Lilly/Maddux)

Hitting advantage to the Cubs, but not by as much as you might think. The meat of the Cubs lineup (Soriano, Theirot, Lee, Ramirez, Soto) are all right-handers, but they won't see a single left-handed starter in the entire series. That's OK with Ramirez and his .963 OPS vs. righties this season, but the rest of them all perform better against LHP. If they're smart, they'll hit Edmonds #5 (and keep Reed Johnson on the bench), and start Fontenot over DeRosa at 2B (DeRosa's calf may make the decision for them). The Dodgers can hit lefties Ethier and Loney at #4 and 5, and if switch-hitter Rafael Furcal is healthy enough (2/9 in last 4 games after returning from DL) to leadoff, LA gets a big boost with him up there because it allows them to move Kemp lower in the lineup and keep Angel Berroa on the bench.

How in the hell are the Dodgers +210 in this series? That's crazy high.