NFL Week 2

After a good start last week, we've got four games this week. Sticking with one-unit plays for now, because, frankly, we're not as confident in our NFL reads as we are in our MLB/college football reads.

Cleveland Browns +7 -110, (BetUs), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

I have a strange feeling that this year, the press is going to have a new "favorite" in the AFC every week, and that if we go against that team every week, we'll come out ahead in the end. This week the media darling is the Steelers. They're touchdown favorites on the road against a team that went 10-6 last year. Makes sense, though- after all, we've got a whole 60 minutes worth of football under our belts! That's a huge sample size. Or so betters seem to think- 69% of them are on the Steelers. Sure, we have our questions about the Browns, but there are very few matchups in which we wouldn't take an NFL team getting 7 at home.

Minnesota Vikings +1 +105 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.05 units.

One week ago, the Vikings were a trendy Super Bowl pick. I'm not ready to discount them just because they lost at Green Bay, especially since I also consider Green Bay to be a contender in the NFC. I think this line is a product of a public sentiment that the Colts can't possibly start the season 0-2. After all, they're the Colts. Thus, 72% of the public's on the Colts. I don't buy that. I think the Vikings win at home, and I think we'll see both teams in the playoffs regardless of the Week 2 results.

New England Patriots +1.5 -110 (BetUS, WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

Quarterback may be the most important position in the NFL, but it's not the only reason teams succeed or fail, despite what the talking heads would have you believe. The Patriots are not going 5-11 this year, and Brett Favre is not leading an otherwise average team to the Super Bowl. The Dolphins played the Jets pretty even last week (check the stats), and basically lost by the margin of a hail mary caught by Cotchery. In case you've forgotten, the Dolphins were 1-15 last year. I had planned to just stay away from this game because of all the attention, but with the line moving a point towards the Patriots despite 57% of the public on the Jets, I couldn't resist.

Washington Redskins +1.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

The Redskins are not good, but they're not as bad as they looked last week. The Las Vegas Sports Consultants had the Saints and Redskins pretty close points-wise in their power ratings ... before the Colston injury. Yet the Skins are getting points, at home. And the public is on the Saints at a 73% clip. I hate making calls on my hometown teams, but this one fits the bill in every respect.