Quarterfinal matches today. Playing one from the boys and a rare pick from the girls, lines from Matchbook:
A. Murray -175 over J. Del Potro, 1.75 units to win 1 unit
Venus Williams +130 over Serena Williams, 1 unit to win 1.30 units
Richard Williams said he's going to flip a coin to decide who he will order to win his daughters' match, and +130 is better than 50%, right?
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2 comments:
Curious about the Murray pick. I think he will win, but do you think it is likely that you are getting value against a relative unknown like Del Potro?
It's hard to tell with tennis, because there isn't much coverage other than Federer/Nadal/Djokovic/Roddick or betting stats, but Del Potro has been getting a lot of press recently (relatively speaking) because of his winning streak. He's won something like 22 straight matches, second only to Nadal. Murray is fairly unknown himself, except for being known as a disappointment (the new Henman!).
I can't say for sure about the value, but I admit it's definitely a bigger number than I typically play. To me, it's a little different in tennis where you don't seem to have all the upsets of the top-ranked competitors that you see in other sports like baseball. For example, I mentioned Andreev and Robredo yesterday, because I thought the matches would be a lot closer than the lines would suggest, but I couldn't really see Federer and Djokovic losing (none of my books have a spread on tennis matches). Also, I felt like I could afford a little more juice because I've been on such a good run at this tournament. That's not solid strategy, but it was a factor.
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