One early pick for Monday

We're looking at a couple games today, but the line is moving away from us on the first one so we're getting it in before it moves further.

L.A. Angels blah blah blah (-128), 1.28 units to win 1 unit..

Ervin Santana is having a great season, showing great control, a quality K/BB ratio, and keeping the ball in the park. He's also 25, which happens to be the age when that "other" Santana broke out and took MLB by storm. And if you're the kind of person who prefers actual numbers to anecdotal B.S., I'll note that PECOTA assigns him a breakout rate of 34% and an improve rate of 66%. Incidentally, my apologies to my friend Brad for underrating him earlier this year without doing adequate research. Anyway, they're playing the Mariners, about whom I've said enough, and Jerrod Washburn, about whom nothing needs to be said. I think the relatively low line is a product of the Angels' semi-cold bats in the last couple of games and Santana's road troubles in the past. Extreme home/road splits over small sample sizes usually regress over time, so we'll go with the underpriced favorite here.

We're also looking at the Reds and the Giants, however both of those lines seem to be moving in our favor, so we're gonna wait a little bit and try to get a better price.

I'm asking Hambone to join me in boycotting the NBA because of this proposterous 6-day delay before Game 1 of the finals and even more preposterous three-day delay before Game 2. The boycott has nothing to do with our abysmal NBA record.