BetUS - The Contrarian NFL Bettor's Paradise

I don't know what the heck goes on over there, but I'm taking advantage. Added bonus- BetUS is also one of only two sites I've found (WSEX is the other) that accepts my debit/credit card deposits. A substantial improvement from a year ago, when I couldn't find any. It's not easy being a person of low morals in a fascist society. Anyway, on to the football.

These lines were accurate as of around 9:00 PM last night. I can't verify them at work, thanks to a new firewall that screens gambling sites. Anyway, here's what I like from the generous BetUS lines - and for the record, I like these teams at the slightly smaller numbers at Matchbook and WSEX also, with the possible exception of the Texans:

Oakland Raiders (+10) -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

So let me get this straight: the Buffalo Bills, projected to win 6 or 7 games this year, win two games (both against teams that lost their other game as well), and suddenly they're world-beaters? The way I see it, there's two ways to look at a season two games in: (1) you think two games is way too soon (and way too small a sample size) to judge a team, in which case you should discount Buffalo's 2-0 record; or (2) you think two games, while not 16, is the best evidence of team quality we have right now, in which case you should be careful before giving Buffalo too much credit. After all, they've only beaten a Jacksonville team that couldn't even handle Tennessee mid-Vince Young meltdown, and an injury-wrecked Seattle team that handed a game to the lowly 49ers. Either way, I don't see how you can start penciling Buffalo in for the Super Bowl just yet.

You'll notice I haven't mentioned the team I'm actually betting on in this wager. There's a reason for that. Anyway, 60% of Wagerline's on Buffalo. I'll play the double-digit dog here. Note- Matchbook has it (+9.5) -102. It's up to you whether you want to buy the extra half-point for .08 units. The handy-dandy translator that Vegas Watch showed us last week has the chances of a push at +10 at somewhere around 4.5%, which makes the extra juice for the half-point worthwhile in my book. Your mileage may vary. I can't use the translator here at work, so if anyone wants to check it this afternoon and comment on the line comparison, I'm all ears.

Houston Texans (+6) -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit.

66% of Wagerline is on Tennessee. Not sure why. Can Albert Haynesworth play 22 positions at the same time? Because otherwise, I just don't see elite talent. This is the game I'm least enthusiastic about of these three, but the Wagerline data is there, and (+6) -105 at BetUS is also the biggest disparity I saw. Matchbook has it (+5) -112 and WSEX has it (+5) -110. I don't look a gift horse in the mouth.


Green Bay Packers (+4) -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit.

I really don't have much choice here. I love the Pack, I think the Cowboys are overrated, Wagerline shows 63% on the Cowboys, and the Pack are a home underdog in a nationally televised night game. A little less publicity for Aaron Rodgers over the last two weeks, and this would be the dream Against All Odds play. Sure, we've already got a big stake in this one with our mutli-unit Cowboys Under 10.5 win bet, and our Packers Over 8 win bet (I can't believe they won't let us cash that one yet). But I can't stop myself from making a play.

I can't begin to figure out how Dallas is giving four on the road. Sure, they're very good. They may even win the Super Bowl. But that's not enough to make them more than a field goal favorites on the road against another Super Bowl contender. I think, in a way, this is a result of the 2007 Patriots phenomenon. People think there needs to be a clear favorite to love/hate in the NFL, and once Brady went down, the marquee team became the star-studded, controversial Cowboys. Thinking like that is the reason the Patriots went 1-8 ATS in their last nine games last season and went to the Super Bowl as double-digit favorites against a red-hot team that had played them virtually to a draw a month earlier. So, umm, keep thinking that way, America. How 'bout dem Cowboys?