NFL Week 3: So Right, Yet So Wrong

First- congratulations to Hambone, who is the proud father of a new baby boy. A great day for him and his wife, and a frightening day for his friends.

Ok, on to the important stuff. By all measures, we're doing pretty well in the 2008 NFL season. We're beating the books so far (admittedly, it's too soon to really judge). Even better, 4 of my 5 win total over/unders are looking good, adding some validity to my preseason theory that, armed with decent statistical projections, a little insight, and a smidgen of common sense, you can beat win total bets in the NFL in much the same way that you can with MLB win total bets.

But so far, it looks like we totally whiffed on the Cowboys Under 10.5. And it hurts, because that was the one I personally talked about the most, both here on the site and with my friends. And it's also the one that's the most "contrarian," which was the whole basis for the theory. The public and the talking heads loved them and many had them winning 12 or 13 games, while the stat guys were less enthusiastic. It appears that not only were the public and the talking heads correct, but the reasons they offered for their projections (Barber's emergence, TO's maturity, improvements on defense) were also correct.

At least we'll always have Steve Phillips, his projection of 92 wins for the Mariners, and the piles of money that it won for us as comfort. Plus, hey, 4 out of 5 in the NFL ain't too shabby.

On to Week 4. These lines are from last night. If you see something better today or tomorrow, please make a note of it in the comments. We'll repost and most likely add another on Saturday afternoon:

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) -105 (BetUs), 1.05 units to win 1 unit.

This was also listed at +3, +103 last night on Matchbook. As with last week, if you can access the converter and want to run it for me, I'd appreciate it. They look about even. We like the Vikings this season, and this spot looks like a great spot to take them. Just not buying the Titans this year, and we think the Vikings supremely talented offensive line can counter the Titans' strength up front.

St. Louis Rams (+9) -110 (BetUS), 2.2 units to win 2 units.


Haven't we been here before? Last week we faded the Bills as ten point favorites (and wagerline consensus favorites) hosting a much-ridiculed team with an offense that featured a quality running back who excels at catching the ball out of the backfield. Now we get to make essentially the same play, except we get the home team and we only have to give back one point. Honestly, is your impression of the Rams' train wreck this week really that much worse than your impression of the Raiders' train wreck was last week? Two units for this sequel sounds good to us. We might even add a quarter-unit money line play before Sunday if we're feeling saucy.

That's it this week. We're staying the hell away from the Cowboys-Redskins game, for the reasons discussed above, but if you want some action on the big afternoon game, the Under (47) looks tempting. Everyone and their mother is hammering the Over after seeing the Cowboys light up the Eagles and Packers in consecutive national games.