Looks like a busy afternoon brewing, so getting the college picks in now:
St. John's +8.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Cincy won by 11 points at MSG, but they're only favored by 8.5 at home? Fishy, fishy, fishy.
SMU +7 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
I thought SMU would be better than 7-14 at this point when I looked at them before the season started. A big line move toward the home team despite big public support for Houston.
Duke +1.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
We have really mixed feelings about this one. We've probably watched every game these teams have played over the past 20+ years, and between the two of us, including undergraduate and graduate, we have 3 combined degrees from these schools. So, if there's any doubt, we typically opt to pass on any games involving Duke and UNC. However, looking at this line, we can't let this one go by tonight where every indicator is pointing to the home team. Public loves UNC, but the line has moved the other way. Pomeroy's system predicts Duke winning by 5 points, and Sagarin has Duke by 4. UNC is #1 on Bookmaker's most popular bets today. Also, there's a guy named Todd who comments on a different blog (I'm gonna call him "The Todd" because in my mind that's how I imagine he would introduce himself) who loves UNC tonight. The Todd always has strong opinions on the squarest sides and he is pretty much always wrong. I love The Todd. I wish he would start writing his own blog.
San Diego State +5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Almost made this a 2-unit play. As usual with our picks, the public loves Utah, but the line is not moving the same way. Pomeroy has SD State ranked higher than Utah. A really deep team getting points tonight. Go Aztecs.
If there's time, back later with any additions to this list or NBA/NHL picks.
4 comments:
Hambone had promised me that he wouldn't post an official Duke pick without this accompanying link about the Duke fans with whom you are aligning yourself if you sell out with the value pick here:
http://www.dukeblueplanet.com/blog.asp?bid=10&pid=349
I made no such promise! Grover made that I request, but I did not agree to it. But, inspired by our new President's willingness to reach across the aisle, I have included the photo. I'm not sure these are all Duke students, it looks like some kind of Special Olympics kind of event....
Also, Grover and I had discussed playing the moneyline on this one, but at the time I posted, there was no moneyline option available at the first two places I looked (Matchbook & WSEX), so I just went with the points.
Can you shed some insight on the dramatic line movement in the GT-VT game tonight?
David,
Looks like it opened at -8.5 and is now -7.5, so it's a decent move, but not a huge one. With the public betting apparently split pretty evenly, I can only guess that some big money bets (professionals) came in on the Jackets. Unless there's an injury/illness/suspension that we don't know about (we don't have an inside man at the books or anything), then it just looks like somebody with money out there is on GT. Why they like GT I can't say (I don't trust them on the road farther than I can throw them), but if you put a gun to my head, I guess I'd rather be on the same side as the pros than against them.
Post a Comment