All the games are early today. It's almost like something big is going on tonight that nobody wants to compete with. Weird. The picks:
NBA
Timberwolves +13 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
The betting numbers and line movement make this a pick, but the Celtics will probably win by 30, so decide for yourself how much of a masochist you are.
College Basketball
Missouri State +10.5 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units
Another one that looks so wrong, it has to be a pick. Bears need to keep the pace slow and pound the ball inside to all those big bodies to stay close.
Montana State +5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Line dropping fast even with heavy support for the visiting Vikings. Pomeroy has Portland State by 4, and I think the home dog has a real chance at the straight-up victory.
NHL
Ottawa +212, 0.5 units to win 1.06 units
Ability difference between these two teams doesn't look this big to me. Ottawa much better killing penalties. Line continues to fall despite almost 70% of wagerline-type folks on the Caps.
Nashville +136, 0.5 units to win 0.68 units
Cut and paste Ottawa notes here.
Super Bowl pick on the Steelers already up a couple of days ago. Might be adding one on the total, but Grover is having computer issues. Enjoy the big day, folks.
3 comments:
Good Snag on the Wolves #. The line just dropped to 11.5. Word is KG is out.
For the line dropping on Port St/Mont St while public support on the visitor, would this be due to one "sharp" betting on the home team or do the books adjust lines against the public w/o money moves to explain it?
I wish I would had looked at your site yesterday before playing Port St - nothing like playing a fav and they never once lead...
Will - Thanks, I don't think I even knew about KG, but I trusted that the sportsbooks who were all taking a firm stand with the Wolves were doing so for a good reason.
Steve - First, we needed a few more points from your boys, but congrats on the win anyway. As to Montana State, I can't say that it was just one sharp bettor dropping money on them, it could have been several professional gamblers or gambling syndicates that were hitting Montana State. All I know is there was enough money coming in from a relatively small number of bettors to overpower all the recreational bettors on Portland State. That would typically be the reason for that kind of "backwards" move unless there's an injury/illness that hasn't ben reported.
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