OK, so at this point we're looking at a certain 3-2 record on the win total over/unders (all of which are for multiple units), a likely 4-0-1 minimum, and a very possible 5-0. So I think the prudent thing to do is to ease up a bit on the weekly plays, which often don't present the same kind of value. Only two games this week:
Buffalo Bills +3.5 +100 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1 unit.
Around 60% on the Patriots according to both Wagerline and Sports Insights. The "Cassel is improving ... can the Pats be a contender again?" storyline is getting a lot of play this week. Meanwhile, Buffalo's DVOA (as per Football Outsiders) is better than New England's on both sides of the ball. Easy call here.
Oakland Raiders +10.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Value from our friends at BetUS; the game is +9.5 elsewhere. Oakland's a little more banged up than Carolina, so if you're iffy on this one you might want to keep an eye on that. I like what I'm hearing about McFadden, which helps the Raiders a lot on the offensive end.
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