Didn't have time to do the usual 10 early picks this week, but honestly, I'm not sure there are ten picks I like that much this week anyway. One pick for tonight's game, and then two early picks for Saturday, lines from Matchbook:
Nevada -1 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
A three-point line movement from where this line opened at Fresno State -2, but the bets are coming in on Fresno State at a clip of over 70%. I've been saying for a couple of weeks that Fresno is a bad team, and we will find out for sure tonight. Fresno's running game is decent, but Nevada's run defense is #3 in the nation based on yardage allowed. On the other side, Nevada's #2 run offense (yardage) should feast on Fresno's horrendous run defense, which has allowed more than 200 yards per game on the ground.
Northwestern +11 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
First line I saw was Ohio State -11, and despite more than 60% betting on the Buckeyes, this line has either held steady, or actually dropped to Ohio State -10.5 at a lot of books. I know Bacher and Sutton are hurt, but the defense has done a decent job the past couple of weeks, and Ohio State isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut (no passing game at all). A close low-scoring game.
Louisiana Tech +7 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
I'm not sure what San Jose State has done to deserve all the public love, especially after squeaking out a win at Idaho in their last game. Line opened at San Jose State -8.5 and has steadily fallen all week, despite more bets coming in on them. Their defense is pretty good based on the numbers, but their offense is very poor. Louisiana Tech's only bad loss was at Army (although Army has really improved this year). Their only other losses were at Kansas, at Boise State, and at Hawaii, which are all very difficult places to play (to be fair, SJ St. won their game at Hawaii 20-17). San Jose State probably won't score enough points to threaten this spread.
Grover will be on at some point with the NFL picks, and there will definitely be some losing NBA/NHL picks for tonight up later so you guys know what NOT to play.
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3 comments:
Just a heads up - Dr. Bob picked nevada as one of his best bets; hence the line movement. I still think it is a very strong pick.
Gotcha. This line started moving a couple of days ago, I think. When does Bob release his picks? Thanks for the info.
Thursday at 5 I believe.
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