NFL Week 11

Before I get into this week's NFL picks, I would like to tip my 40 in fond remembrance of Fire Joe Morgan, which went to the big intertubes in the sky this week. It has always been my favorite sports blog, and I'm legitimately bummed about its demise. Yes, I realize how dorky that makes me.

Onward and upward. A couple picks now, and a couple more games worth keeping eye on over the weekend:

Baltimore Ravens +7.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not doubting the legitimacy of this apparently dominant Giants team. But I'm in the minority in thinking that the Ravens are also for real. This is a good football team (and to think, we got them at Over 6.5 wins before the season started). Also, I'm not a huge Eli believer. The Giants have won because they have the best running game in the league in my opinion. But if anyone's gonna stop Jacobs and company, it's the Ravens. They're so good against the run that if I had Jacobs on my fantasy football team this year, I'd think about benching him this week. I expect the Ravens to keep it close. We'll fade the public here, as per usual (61% on the Giants according to Wagerline).

By the way, this line is a BetUS special. It's at +7 elsewhere, after opening around +6.


Cincinnati Bengals +9.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

The Bengals are on a one-game winning streak! Seriously, you have to like what you saw from Fitzpatrick and Ocho Cinco last week. More to the point, however, I just don't see this year's Eagles squad as the kind of team that should be getting 9.5 points on the road. Even the line looks designed to get people to bet on the Eagles. "9.5? The Bengals will definitely lose by two scores, and that's ten points right there!" It seems to be working, too. 73% (yes, you read that correctly, 73%) of Wagerline on the Eagles at last check.

Seattle Seahawks +3.5 +100 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1 unit.

This is my favorite play of the weekend. First, we're getting a huge break from BetUS. The line is -3 with varying juice everywhere else I looked, and BetUS is handing out +3.5 with no juice. I may make this a two-unit play. Seahawks have been dreadful this year, but they're healthier now (except Hasselback of course), and their home field advantage is legendary. I see this game as Holmgren's last stand, and the Seahawks might very well win it outright. Not that I doubt the Cardinals, but they are coming off a short week and could possibly get caught looking ahead to the following week's potential NFC playoff preview against the Giants.

A couple more games to consider:

San Diego (at Pittsburgh). The Chargers are getting +5 or +5.5 in most places, and the public is all over the Steelers (68% at Wagerline). That seems odd to me, and I'm wondering if the big Monday Night game where they demolished Washington is somehow more prominent in bettor's minds than the fact that they lost at home to 5-4 Indianapolis last week. Brutal stretch schedule for the Steelers, by the way. Anyway, we may well add this game later, especially if it moves to +6.


Washington (hosting Dallas). Sure, the Skins probably won't have Portis. Sure, Romo is coming back. Still, I'm baffled to see the Skins as 1-2 point underdogs here. As I said to Hambone this morning, here is a complete list of the home underdogs in the NFL this week: Kansas City (1 win), Cincinnati (1 win), Seattle (2 wins), Jacksonville (4 wins, hosting undefeated Tennessee), and Washington (6 wins, including a road win over the team they're playing on Sunday). In the immortal words of the Sesame Street gang, one of these things is not like the others. This line is so out of whack that I'm suspicious of it, and I think I'll likely pass.

As always, your thoughts are welcome in the comments.