NFL Week 13

Sorry for the late posting. The holidays can get a little hectic.

Coming off our two-unit loss on Thanksgiving, there's not a lot we love today. Just two plays.

Cleveland Browns +6.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

Great value play here. The line was initially set at +4.5 by Vegas and is still at +5 or so at most places, albeig with limited or no juice. But +6.5 is clearly the best value out there. Money is pouring in on Indy at an amazing 79% clip according to Wagerline. I can understand why ... after all, the powerful Colts offense must win by huge margins all the time, right? Well, not this year's Colts. They have one win of more than a touchdown- their 31-3 domination of the Ravens in Week 6). I don't see any reason they should give almost a touchdown on the road, despite Cleveland's problems. Cleveland has some injury concerns, so feel free to wait on this until you can confirm that Shaun Rogers and Kellen Winslow will play. I'm pretty sure the line won't move against you in the meantime.

San Francisco 49ers +7 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

I love this play so much I'm thinking of making it a two-pointer. The teams are almost even in the DVOA efficiency ratings, yet BetUS is giving us a full touchdown on the road team. The Bills 6-5 record is misleading: the Bills have lost four of their last five, most after starting the year strong. But the public seems to be looking only at the teams' records, and 72% are betting the Bills. The fact that only BetUS has been willing to move the line to +7 despite that action is a good sign for us.