And the rest:
Oregon State +7 -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit
Providence +4 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Drake +7 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
That's it for today. Probably.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Sunday Afternoon
Siena couldn't buy a shot in the first half. Crap. Other non-football picks for this afternoon:
College Basketball
James Madison -1.5 -109, 2.18 units to win 2 units
Furman +28.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Blazers +3.5 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
NHL
St. Louis +126, 0.5 units to win 0.63 units
Probably will be some losing picks for tonight later.
College Basketball
James Madison -1.5 -109, 2.18 units to win 2 units
Furman +28.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Blazers +3.5 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
NHL
St. Louis +126, 0.5 units to win 0.63 units
Probably will be some losing picks for tonight later.
Sunday Morning Hoops, Plus One
Little conferences vs. the big conferences. It's the strategy that's been kicking us in the balls so far, but it's the only way we know how to play these early season games:
Siena +1 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Neutral floor, and we're getting a point with the better team. 82% of wagerline on Oklahoma State but this line has barely budged, if at all.
Cornell -2.5 -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
I've been talking about how awful Indiana is all season. Time to put my money where my mouth is. Also widely available at -3 -110, so pick your poison.
NFL picks right under this post. Back later.
Siena +1 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Neutral floor, and we're getting a point with the better team. 82% of wagerline on Oklahoma State but this line has barely budged, if at all.
Cornell -2.5 -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
I've been talking about how awful Indiana is all season. Time to put my money where my mouth is. Also widely available at -3 -110, so pick your poison.
NFL picks right under this post. Back later.
NFL Week 13
Sorry for the late posting. The holidays can get a little hectic.
Coming off our two-unit loss on Thanksgiving, there's not a lot we love today. Just two plays.
Cleveland Browns +6.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Great value play here. The line was initially set at +4.5 by Vegas and is still at +5 or so at most places, albeig with limited or no juice. But +6.5 is clearly the best value out there. Money is pouring in on Indy at an amazing 79% clip according to Wagerline. I can understand why ... after all, the powerful Colts offense must win by huge margins all the time, right? Well, not this year's Colts. They have one win of more than a touchdown- their 31-3 domination of the Ravens in Week 6). I don't see any reason they should give almost a touchdown on the road, despite Cleveland's problems. Cleveland has some injury concerns, so feel free to wait on this until you can confirm that Shaun Rogers and Kellen Winslow will play. I'm pretty sure the line won't move against you in the meantime.
San Francisco 49ers +7 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I love this play so much I'm thinking of making it a two-pointer. The teams are almost even in the DVOA efficiency ratings, yet BetUS is giving us a full touchdown on the road team. The Bills 6-5 record is misleading: the Bills have lost four of their last five, most after starting the year strong. But the public seems to be looking only at the teams' records, and 72% are betting the Bills. The fact that only BetUS has been willing to move the line to +7 despite that action is a good sign for us.
Coming off our two-unit loss on Thanksgiving, there's not a lot we love today. Just two plays.
Cleveland Browns +6.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Great value play here. The line was initially set at +4.5 by Vegas and is still at +5 or so at most places, albeig with limited or no juice. But +6.5 is clearly the best value out there. Money is pouring in on Indy at an amazing 79% clip according to Wagerline. I can understand why ... after all, the powerful Colts offense must win by huge margins all the time, right? Well, not this year's Colts. They have one win of more than a touchdown- their 31-3 domination of the Ravens in Week 6). I don't see any reason they should give almost a touchdown on the road, despite Cleveland's problems. Cleveland has some injury concerns, so feel free to wait on this until you can confirm that Shaun Rogers and Kellen Winslow will play. I'm pretty sure the line won't move against you in the meantime.
San Francisco 49ers +7 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
I love this play so much I'm thinking of making it a two-pointer. The teams are almost even in the DVOA efficiency ratings, yet BetUS is giving us a full touchdown on the road team. The Bills 6-5 record is misleading: the Bills have lost four of their last five, most after starting the year strong. But the public seems to be looking only at the teams' records, and 72% are betting the Bills. The fact that only BetUS has been willing to move the line to +7 despite that action is a good sign for us.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Saturday Night
All the rest:
NBA
Wizards -1.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
College Basketball
Northeastern +4 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Towson +7.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Idaho State +10 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Buffalo +142, 0.5 units to win 0.71 units
Tampa Bay +148, 0.5 units to win 0.74 units
Good luck everybody. I need a nap.
NBA
Wizards -1.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
College Basketball
Northeastern +4 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Towson +7.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Idaho State +10 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Buffalo +142, 0.5 units to win 0.71 units
Tampa Bay +148, 0.5 units to win 0.74 units
Good luck everybody. I need a nap.
Whoops
Last minute add. Had this basketball game written down for 8 PM, but the ESPN ticker just said it starts at 4:30:
Miami(OH) +8 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
A classic anti-public play.
Just walked in from out-of-town. Back later.
Miami(OH) +8 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
A classic anti-public play.
Just walked in from out-of-town. Back later.
Saturday Afternoon Hoops
Loading up the car and heading for home. Should be home in time to post a couple of NBA/NHL losers for tonight. But first, three college basketball games for the early afternoon:
Marshall -3 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Ohio +5.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Cal State Northridge +3.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Yes, that first one is a favorite. Good luck everybody.
Marshall -3 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Ohio +5.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Cal State Northridge +3.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Yes, that first one is a favorite. Good luck everybody.
Rivalry Week in the ACC
Nice day yesterday. Let's not screw it all up today. Two college football games this afternoon:
Virginia +8.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Duke +8 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Betting and line movement are right on both of these. Plus, even if you look at them statistically, there's just not a whole lot of difference between the teams in either one of these games. Back later with hoops.
Virginia +8.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Duke +8 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Betting and line movement are right on both of these. Plus, even if you look at them statistically, there's just not a whole lot of difference between the teams in either one of these games. Back later with hoops.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Friday Hoops
Just a few today, as free time is at a premium right now.
NBA
76ers +8.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
College Basketball
Auburn +2.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Also available at Matchbook at +3.5 -121. If Barrett plays, then it's insane that Dayton is both favored and getting 70% of the public love.
Gonzaga -6 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
A little square (59% at Wagerline), but the line is moving toward Gonzaga, so it's not like the books are taking a stand on Maryland or anything. Real close in the backcourt, no contest up front.
NBA
76ers +8.5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
College Basketball
Auburn +2.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Also available at Matchbook at +3.5 -121. If Barrett plays, then it's insane that Dayton is both favored and getting 70% of the public love.
Gonzaga -6 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
A little square (59% at Wagerline), but the line is moving toward Gonzaga, so it's not like the books are taking a stand on Maryland or anything. Real close in the backcourt, no contest up front.
Battling the Trytophan
Still a little drowsy from my turkey-induced food coma yesterday, but I owe an apology to the people of South Carolina. Apparently, the internet has made it this far south. Next stop, indoor plumbing! Lots of family hovering around, so the entries will be very sporadic today. First, a couple afternoon football games:
Arkansas +5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Eastern Michigan +10 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Hoping to get a chance to look at some hoops today also (I'm a masochist), but only if I can sneak away long enough to do the homework. Good luck everybody.
Arkansas +5 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Eastern Michigan +10 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Hoping to get a chance to look at some hoops today also (I'm a masochist), but only if I can sneak away long enough to do the homework. Good luck everybody.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Making it Official
I got the line I was looking for, so we're making the pick I discussed yesterday official. And for two units.
Seattle Seahawks +13 -110 (BetUS), 2.2 units to win 2 units.
The rationale was discussed yesterday. Looks like Dallas is getting somewhere around 2/3 of the action. For a team that,as I mentioned yesterday, hasn't covered a 13 point spread since Week One. Sounds like value to me.
Seattle Seahawks +13 -110 (BetUS), 2.2 units to win 2 units.
The rationale was discussed yesterday. Looks like Dallas is getting somewhere around 2/3 of the action. For a team that,as I mentioned yesterday, hasn't covered a 13 point spread since Week One. Sounds like value to me.
Turkey Day Hoops
After a horrible performance yesterday, just one for today and then getting on the road (late already):
Siena +7.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Noon eastern tipoff time. I really like this Siena team, which is probably bad news for this pick. Have a nice holiday everybody.
Siena +7.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Noon eastern tipoff time. I really like this Siena team, which is probably bad news for this pick. Have a nice holiday everybody.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Will Handicap For Stuffing
Two picks already posted earlier today. Here's the rest for Thanksgiving Eve:
College Basketball
Elon +20 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Central Florida +10.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Eastern Washington +15 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Yep, nothing but traditional basketball powerhouses tonight.
NBA
76ers -5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Timberwolves +4 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Islanders +146, 0.5 units to win 0.73 units
Blackhawks +166, 0.5 units to win 0.83 units
Spending the next few days in South Carolina, where I'm not sure if they have heard of the internet yet, so the posting may be spotty over the long weekend. Of course, most of you will probably be away from your computers as well, so it works out.
College Basketball
Elon +20 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Central Florida +10.5 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Eastern Washington +15 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Yep, nothing but traditional basketball powerhouses tonight.
NBA
76ers -5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Timberwolves +4 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Islanders +146, 0.5 units to win 0.73 units
Blackhawks +166, 0.5 units to win 0.83 units
Spending the next few days in South Carolina, where I'm not sure if they have heard of the internet yet, so the posting may be spotty over the long weekend. Of course, most of you will probably be away from your computers as well, so it works out.
Thanksgiving Special
Just a note to say that we love the Seahawks tomorrow. They've played three good teams tough in the last three weeks and look a lot better with Hassleback in the fold. Meanwhile, Dallas opened at -14 despite not beating a team by that much since Week One. It looks like the sharps have moved the line down to -12.5, but we're thinking that the squares will move the line back to 13 or more ... and there's probably more squares than usual betting on Thanksgiving. So we're flagging this for you now but advising you to hold on and check the lines tomorrow before you head out for your holiday festivities.
Wednesday 2-Unit Hoops Plays
Despite public support going the other way, these college basketball lines are really starting to move, mostly because they were terrible to begin with, so I'm getting them in before they lose any more value:
Northwestern ML +160 (WSEX), 2 units to win 3.20 units
Wrong team favored here. Line dropped from Butler -6.5 to -4 in the blink of an eye. You can get +5.5 at Matchbook, but the juice will cost you -131 or -140. Don't need the points on this one.
SMU +6.5 -106, 2.12 units to win 2 units
Once again, you've got the better team getting points, and the line has dropped accordingly (from +7.5 down to +6 at some books). I'm not cocky enough on this one to take the moneyline, but I like it enough to make it a double-play as well.
Back later with the rest.
Northwestern ML +160 (WSEX), 2 units to win 3.20 units
Wrong team favored here. Line dropped from Butler -6.5 to -4 in the blink of an eye. You can get +5.5 at Matchbook, but the juice will cost you -131 or -140. Don't need the points on this one.
SMU +6.5 -106, 2.12 units to win 2 units
Once again, you've got the better team getting points, and the line has dropped accordingly (from +7.5 down to +6 at some books). I'm not cocky enough on this one to take the moneyline, but I like it enough to make it a double-play as well.
Back later with the rest.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
The Rest of the Story
All the rest of the action for Tuesday night. From now on, unless otherwise noted, the lines quoted are from Matchbook:
College Basketball
Syracuse +4 -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Folks are underestimating Syracuse almost as much as they are overestimating Indiana. These kids are really, really good.
St. Louis +9.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Much better at the point, and otherwise fairly even, so I can't believe we're getting almost 10 points unless there's an injury I don't know about.
Loyola-Chicago +8.5 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Significant backcourt advantage for Loy-Chi, so as long as they can handle the Johnnies' size edge, they should easily stay within this number.
NBA
Oklahoma City +10 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
I would feel more comfortable backing the Thundercats in a basketball game than the Thunder, but I guess you play the hand that you're dealt.
NHL
St. Louis +152, 0.5 units to win 0.76 units
Los Angeles +154, 0.5 units to win 0.77 units
I can't believe the hockey results have been better than hoops. Ridiculous, but if we get just one of these two, that's mo money in our pockets. Good luck everybody.
College Basketball
Syracuse +4 -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Folks are underestimating Syracuse almost as much as they are overestimating Indiana. These kids are really, really good.
St. Louis +9.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Much better at the point, and otherwise fairly even, so I can't believe we're getting almost 10 points unless there's an injury I don't know about.
Loyola-Chicago +8.5 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Significant backcourt advantage for Loy-Chi, so as long as they can handle the Johnnies' size edge, they should easily stay within this number.
NBA
Oklahoma City +10 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
I would feel more comfortable backing the Thundercats in a basketball game than the Thunder, but I guess you play the hand that you're dealt.
NHL
St. Louis +152, 0.5 units to win 0.76 units
Los Angeles +154, 0.5 units to win 0.77 units
I can't believe the hockey results have been better than hoops. Ridiculous, but if we get just one of these two, that's mo money in our pockets. Good luck everybody.
Tuesday Hoops
Just in case I get trapped in the office again this afternoon, I wanted to put a couple of picks out early today. Lines from Matchbook:
Penn +3.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Very even matchup on paper. Betting and line movement says go with the Quakers.
Ball State +6 +103, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
The best player on the floor tonight (Newell) plays for Ball State. He should be enough to keep this one close.
Arkansas-Little Rock +3 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
All 5 starters back and the advantage in the paint. Go Trojans.
Back tonight with the rest.
Penn +3.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Very even matchup on paper. Betting and line movement says go with the Quakers.
Ball State +6 +103, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
The best player on the floor tonight (Newell) plays for Ball State. He should be enough to keep this one close.
Arkansas-Little Rock +3 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
All 5 starters back and the advantage in the paint. Go Trojans.
Back tonight with the rest.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Hockey & College Baskets
There were some good opportunities in the early games (how long before folks figure out how awful Indiana is this year?). Here's the rest for Monday night, lines from Matchbook:
College Basketball
Middle Tennessee State +9 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
UTEP -1 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Syracuse +3 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
Montana State +7 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Islanders +206, 0.5 units to win 1.03 units
Avalanche +142, 0.5 units to win 0.71 units
That's it for tonight. Gonna start working on tomorrow right now.
College Basketball
Middle Tennessee State +9 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
UTEP -1 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Syracuse +3 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
Montana State +7 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Islanders +206, 0.5 units to win 1.03 units
Avalanche +142, 0.5 units to win 0.71 units
That's it for tonight. Gonna start working on tomorrow right now.
Monday Night NBA
Actually won an NBA yesterday which has been a rare feat this season so far. Still at the office, so wanted to go ahead and post this now since I'm not sure what the next hour or so is going to look like:
Bobcats +3 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units
I've been on the Bobcats at home at lost so far this year, but I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not. Hopefully, Brand won't notice all the Tar Heels on the other team.
Back later with any college games.
Bobcats +3 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units
I've been on the Bobcats at home at lost so far this year, but I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not. Hopefully, Brand won't notice all the Tar Heels on the other team.
Back later with any college games.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
McNabb Says: No Ties Allowed
Well, we're 2-2 on the NFL action today. Not wanting to end the week in a tie, we'll add the Chargers, as we'd talked about in our big NFL post on Thursday.
San Diego Chargers -3 even (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1 unit.
For an explanation behind the wager, see our Thursday post. BetUS, with no juice, has a slightly better number than elsewhere (Matchbook is next at -102). So if you've got an account there, that's the play.
Enjoy the game, everyone. If nothing else, at least it probably has tons of fantasy football intrigue for lots of people.
San Diego Chargers -3 even (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1 unit.
For an explanation behind the wager, see our Thursday post. BetUS, with no juice, has a slightly better number than elsewhere (Matchbook is next at -102). So if you've got an account there, that's the play.
Enjoy the game, everyone. If nothing else, at least it probably has tons of fantasy football intrigue for lots of people.
Sunday Night Hoops
I'm not sure what the hold-up on that Delaware game is, but it should have tipped off already. College & NBA, lines from Matchbook, all to win 1 unit:
College Basketball
Wofford +9 -106
SMU +7 -102
San Diego +5.5 -104
The line move in the San Diego game should have scared me off, but I'm obviously not that bright.
NBA
Timberwolves +9.5 +101
Minnesota's not winning any games, but they're not getting blown out very often either.
Might be back later to play the NFL game tonight.
College Basketball
Wofford +9 -106
SMU +7 -102
San Diego +5.5 -104
The line move in the San Diego game should have scared me off, but I'm obviously not that bright.
NBA
Timberwolves +9.5 +101
Minnesota's not winning any games, but they're not getting blown out very often either.
Might be back later to play the NFL game tonight.
Sunday Afternoon College Hoops
The 6-1 record over the past 2 days has put my suicide plans on hold for the moment. Lines from Matchbook:
St. Bonaventure +10 -118, 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Furman +15 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Delaware -4.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
NFL picks were posted on Friday. Good luck everybody.
St. Bonaventure +10 -118, 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Furman +15 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Delaware -4.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
NFL picks were posted on Friday. Good luck everybody.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Saturday Night Leftovers
Pulled my back earlier (I'm getting old), so I've done all the work I'm going to do today. Here are all of the rest of the plays, lines from Matchbook:
College Football
Oklahoma -7 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
San Diego State +10 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
College Basketball
Iona +3 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Colorado State +2 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Clippers +3.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +5.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
NHL
St. Louis +194, 0.5 units to win 0.97 units
That's it for today. Good luck everybody.
College Football
Oklahoma -7 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
San Diego State +10 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
College Basketball
Iona +3 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Colorado State +2 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Clippers +3.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +5.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
NHL
St. Louis +194, 0.5 units to win 0.97 units
That's it for today. Good luck everybody.
S.A.T.! S.A.T.!
At least the players on my side will be smarter. One more afternoon hoops pick:
Harvard +10.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
You would think Colorado could recruit better big men than Harvard. You'd be wrong.
Afternoon Football
I was really agonizing over Indiana and NC State this morning. My decision to play Indiana and pass NC State is really looking clever at this point. Two more for the afternoon, then back to working on basketball for a while. Lines from Matchbook, both to win 1 unit:
Ohio +2.5 -104
Washington State +7 +100 (mostly for the novelty of betting on the worst game ever played)
Ohio +2.5 -104
Washington State +7 +100 (mostly for the novelty of betting on the worst game ever played)
2 For 2 PM
College hoops for Saturday afternoon:
Loyola-Chicago +4.5 -109 (Matchbook), 1.09 units to win 1 unit
The value of this one has probably already been lost when the line jumped from +6.5 to +4.5, but I'm going to be stubborn and play it anyway. Buyer beware.
Eastern Kentucky +19 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
The ESPN folks were very impressed by the 167 points Texas Tech put up against something called East Central, but they didn't bother to mention the mere 11-point win over Sam Houston State. The best player on the floor today (Mike Rose) plays for Eastern Kentucky.
More to come as I get time.....
Loyola-Chicago +4.5 -109 (Matchbook), 1.09 units to win 1 unit
The value of this one has probably already been lost when the line jumped from +6.5 to +4.5, but I'm going to be stubborn and play it anyway. Buyer beware.
Eastern Kentucky +19 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
The ESPN folks were very impressed by the 167 points Texas Tech put up against something called East Central, but they didn't bother to mention the mere 11-point win over Sam Houston State. The best player on the floor today (Mike Rose) plays for Eastern Kentucky.
More to come as I get time.....
Early Saturday Football
My kid's ass is making some terrifying noises right now, so I'm gonna have to cut this short. Lines from Matchbook, all to win 1 unit:
Indiana +11.5 -105
Louisville +7 -109
Tennessee +3 -103
Wyoming +2 -104
Back later, if I survive......
Indiana +11.5 -105
Louisville +7 -109
Tennessee +3 -103
Wyoming +2 -104
Back later, if I survive......
Friday, November 21, 2008
Vegas Watch, I Need To Borrow Your Calculator
I don't know if this is even something that can be calculated, but I wonder what the odds are of making 8 picks and ending up with 3 pushes. My abacus just keeps saying "not fucking likely."
When I said in the headline that we were "pushing" our luck, I was just referring to the one push from the afternoon. Never would have imagined there would be 2 more. Beats the hell out of 3 more losses, I guess.....
Pushing Our Luck on Friday Night
One play in the books already today (San Diego hoops), and it was a push. I haven't had a chance to look at the play-by-play yet to see if it was a lucky push or a shitty one - maybe I won't look. Headed out the door to a bar, here's the rest of what we played for Friday night. Sorry for the late post, but just got home, lines from Matchbook:
College Basketball
Middle Tennessee State +10 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Iona +17 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
NBA
Pacers +2 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
NHL
Islanders +154, 0.5 units to win 0.77 units
Blues +116, 0.5 units to win 0.58 units
College Football
Miami(OH) +3 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Time permitting, plenty more tomorrow.
College Basketball
Middle Tennessee State +10 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Iona +17 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
NBA
Pacers +2 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
NHL
Islanders +154, 0.5 units to win 0.77 units
Blues +116, 0.5 units to win 0.58 units
College Football
Miami(OH) +3 +110, 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Time permitting, plenty more tomorrow.
The NFL Week 12: What the Hell is Going on Around Here?
It's been an odd year so far. The Sports Guy's column today points out the number of road teams winning or covering is way out of whack. And by the way, how about that Sports Guy returning from two years of sucking to start writing decent columns again? Yet another positive to come out of the Brady injury. We've also seen favorites (usually the public's preferred team) covering at a much higher clip than normal. Since we usually favor dogs, this hasn't worked out so well. But these things tend to balance out in the end. Hopefully the balancing out will start this week, because we've got five plays that we like:
Tennessee Titans -6 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.1 units.
This game is -5 and -5.5 elsewhere with mild juice. I'm at work and can't run the line comparisions, but they all look about even to me, so take your pick. Titans are a better team on both sides of the ball, and it's not really all that close. I think this line is a function of people somehow talking themselves into the fact that the Titans can't possibly go 16-0, and this looks like as good a chance as any for them to lose, so it must be "time." Plus people seem to think that Brett Favre and the Jets are suddenly "clicking." About 60% on the Jets according to Wagerline. We'll take the Titans, and rest secure in the knowledge that the team we're fading is bound to throw a horrifying. back-breaking interception at least once this game. I think the Titans will make the Jets pay for that mistake in a way that the Chiefs and Bills could not.
Miami Dolphins -1 -103 (Matchbook), 1.03 units to win 1 unit.
This is the quintessential "last season bias" game. DVOA statistics show that they are better than the Patriots on both sides of the ball this year. And yet they are basically in a pick-em game in Miami? And 70% of Wagerline bettors are choosing the Pats? Why? Well, presumably because people don't realize just how different these teams are from the teams that went 1-15 and 16-0 last season. Heck, most people still don't realize how different the Pats team from the last half of 2007 was from the Pats team from the first half of 2007. Anyway, I love this play. The injury to Adalius Thomas is the injury that breaks the Pats' back, in my opinion.
Oakland Raiders +9 -110 (WSEX, BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Any time I see 9 or 9.5 point lines, I pay attention, because they look like classic sucker lines. The square bettor sees that line, thinks "that's just a touchdown and a field goal," and gets the favorite. I mentioned this on last week's Bengals-Eagles game as well, and that worked out OK, so we'll keep riding my new theory here. Denver's defense is as banged-up as any unit in the league. Ouch. I think a finally healthy McFadden's gonna put on a show here. Not enough of a show for us to play the money line, but a show nonetheless. Wagerline says 58% on the Broncos, which isn't really enough to be significant.
Seattle Seahawks +4 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Ugh. I feel dirty fading my favorite team. Dear God, I hope I don't have to fade the public favorite Tarheels a lot this winter.
This game makes for an interesting study in contarian betting. It was originally on my list, because I thought people were ignoring the fact that most of the Seattle losses this year came with Hasslebeck injured and/or a decimated receiver corps, and thus the public was underestimating them based solely on a won-loss record that didn't reflect the quality of the team they'll field on Sunday. Then I chatted with Hambone and told him I was taking it off, because that sort of thinking (about the impact of Hasslebeck's absence) seemed like "square" thinking, because squares tend to overemphasize the importance of the QB when the team clearly has more problems than just QB play this year. Then Hambone pointed out that 68% of Wagerline is on the Skins, so it couldn't be too square. Sounds good to me. Other contarian types: feel free to share your thoughts with us.
By the way, the game was +3 +103 elsewhere last time I checked. Another candidate for a helpful commenter to run through the line comparison thingy.
Possible play: San Diego -3 +105 (WSEX)
Really, we just wanted to take advantage of this rare chance to play a favorite and fade overwhelming public sentiment at the same time. It almost never happens.
People seem to think the (6-4) Colts "got off to a slow start, but they've turned it around." Really? Find me a result since their Week 7 mauling of the Ravens that leads you to believe that. No, really. Go ahead. I'll wait.
We're not putting our money down here. The thought is that it's the late game on Sunday night, and we might well get some line movement in our favor since the squares are tripping over themselves to bet the Colts here. Plus if we go 4-0 or 0-4 during the day, we might want to cash in our chips or stop the bleeding, respectively. But we wanted to flag the game in our "official" NFL post. We'll post an update if we decide to play it.
Tennessee Titans -6 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.1 units.
This game is -5 and -5.5 elsewhere with mild juice. I'm at work and can't run the line comparisions, but they all look about even to me, so take your pick. Titans are a better team on both sides of the ball, and it's not really all that close. I think this line is a function of people somehow talking themselves into the fact that the Titans can't possibly go 16-0, and this looks like as good a chance as any for them to lose, so it must be "time." Plus people seem to think that Brett Favre and the Jets are suddenly "clicking." About 60% on the Jets according to Wagerline. We'll take the Titans, and rest secure in the knowledge that the team we're fading is bound to throw a horrifying. back-breaking interception at least once this game. I think the Titans will make the Jets pay for that mistake in a way that the Chiefs and Bills could not.
Miami Dolphins -1 -103 (Matchbook), 1.03 units to win 1 unit.
This is the quintessential "last season bias" game. DVOA statistics show that they are better than the Patriots on both sides of the ball this year. And yet they are basically in a pick-em game in Miami? And 70% of Wagerline bettors are choosing the Pats? Why? Well, presumably because people don't realize just how different these teams are from the teams that went 1-15 and 16-0 last season. Heck, most people still don't realize how different the Pats team from the last half of 2007 was from the Pats team from the first half of 2007. Anyway, I love this play. The injury to Adalius Thomas is the injury that breaks the Pats' back, in my opinion.
Oakland Raiders +9 -110 (WSEX, BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Any time I see 9 or 9.5 point lines, I pay attention, because they look like classic sucker lines. The square bettor sees that line, thinks "that's just a touchdown and a field goal," and gets the favorite. I mentioned this on last week's Bengals-Eagles game as well, and that worked out OK, so we'll keep riding my new theory here. Denver's defense is as banged-up as any unit in the league. Ouch. I think a finally healthy McFadden's gonna put on a show here. Not enough of a show for us to play the money line, but a show nonetheless. Wagerline says 58% on the Broncos, which isn't really enough to be significant.
Seattle Seahawks +4 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Ugh. I feel dirty fading my favorite team. Dear God, I hope I don't have to fade the public favorite Tarheels a lot this winter.
This game makes for an interesting study in contarian betting. It was originally on my list, because I thought people were ignoring the fact that most of the Seattle losses this year came with Hasslebeck injured and/or a decimated receiver corps, and thus the public was underestimating them based solely on a won-loss record that didn't reflect the quality of the team they'll field on Sunday. Then I chatted with Hambone and told him I was taking it off, because that sort of thinking (about the impact of Hasslebeck's absence) seemed like "square" thinking, because squares tend to overemphasize the importance of the QB when the team clearly has more problems than just QB play this year. Then Hambone pointed out that 68% of Wagerline is on the Skins, so it couldn't be too square. Sounds good to me. Other contarian types: feel free to share your thoughts with us.
By the way, the game was +3 +103 elsewhere last time I checked. Another candidate for a helpful commenter to run through the line comparison thingy.
Possible play: San Diego -3 +105 (WSEX)
Really, we just wanted to take advantage of this rare chance to play a favorite and fade overwhelming public sentiment at the same time. It almost never happens.
People seem to think the (6-4) Colts "got off to a slow start, but they've turned it around." Really? Find me a result since their Week 7 mauling of the Ravens that leads you to believe that. No, really. Go ahead. I'll wait.
We're not putting our money down here. The thought is that it's the late game on Sunday night, and we might well get some line movement in our favor since the squares are tripping over themselves to bet the Colts here. Plus if we go 4-0 or 0-4 during the day, we might want to cash in our chips or stop the bleeding, respectively. But we wanted to flag the game in our "official" NFL post. We'll post an update if we decide to play it.
Friday Afternoon in Paradise, and Blue Hens
You know it's been bad when I broke even in college hoops last night, but felt like I had won. Gonna be running around this afternoon, so getting two early games in now. Lines from Matchbook, each for 1 unit:
San Diego -7 +102
Game #2 at the Paradise Jam (3:30 EST tipoff). Better point guard, better frontcourt for the Toreros. Depending on where you look, the betting is either even, or favoring Valpo today.
Delaware +4 +107
Wagerline says 73% on St. Bonaventure, and Sports Insights has it at 86%. Either way, I see Delaware as the clearly more talented team, so the big support for the other team is confusing to me. I know they've both played Robert Morris with different results, but I still don't get it. Maybe the classic handicapper in me (looking at the actual players involved) is getting me in trouble today. We'll see.
Back later.
San Diego -7 +102
Game #2 at the Paradise Jam (3:30 EST tipoff). Better point guard, better frontcourt for the Toreros. Depending on where you look, the betting is either even, or favoring Valpo today.
Delaware +4 +107
Wagerline says 73% on St. Bonaventure, and Sports Insights has it at 86%. Either way, I see Delaware as the clearly more talented team, so the big support for the other team is confusing to me. I know they've both played Robert Morris with different results, but I still don't get it. Maybe the classic handicapper in me (looking at the actual players involved) is getting me in trouble today. We'll see.
Back later.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Pretend I'm Using "Puck" in a Funny Way
Couldn't come up with a good headline tonight, so I leave it to your imaginations. Tonight's hockey guesses, lines from Matchbook, all for 0.5 units:
Florida +136
Chicago +120
Calgary +110
If all 3 of these lose in shootouts, it would serve me right for trying to predict a sport I know nothing about.
Florida +136
Chicago +120
Calgary +110
If all 3 of these lose in shootouts, it would serve me right for trying to predict a sport I know nothing about.
Thursday College Hoops Fades
The smart thing to do would be to play the opposite of the ones we're playing. Just two for tonight, lines from Matchbook:
UC Davis +11 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Too many players missing from last year for Arkansas. The SEC school should have a size advantage against the Big West school, but that's clearly not the case tonight.
The Citadel +9 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Both of these teams are awful, but one of these teams is called "Iowa" so the less-than-double-digit spread is very suspicious. The Hawkeyes will be too freaked out by The Ten trying to put them in The Hole to focus on the game. What? Am I the only person who's seen The Lords of Discipline?
Probably back later with a couple hockey picks, as sad as that sounds.
Early Saturday Football Leans
I have a lot more time for this stuff when I don't go to work. Maybe I should quit altogether. With the run I've been on the past week or two, I probably wouldn't starve to death for at least 3 or 4 days. Early looks for Saturday, based only on the line movement and wagerline numbers:
Tennessee +3 at Vanderbilt
Wyoming +2 vs. Colorado State
Tulane +28.5 at Tulsa
Oklahoma -7 vs. Texas Tech
Nevada +6 vs. Boise State
UAB +6.5 vs. East Carolina
San Diego State +11.5 v. UNLV
Barely missing the cut were Indiana, Iowa State, and Washington State (that Wash/Wash St. is going to be an enormous shitfest). Thoughts?
Tennessee +3 at Vanderbilt
Wyoming +2 vs. Colorado State
Tulane +28.5 at Tulsa
Oklahoma -7 vs. Texas Tech
Nevada +6 vs. Boise State
UAB +6.5 vs. East Carolina
San Diego State +11.5 v. UNLV
Barely missing the cut were Indiana, Iowa State, and Washington State (that Wash/Wash St. is going to be an enormous shitfest). Thoughts?
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Can't Muster A Clever Headline Tonight
Some would say I never have. Very last minute post, but I've been concentrating on my drinking since storming out of the office this afternoon with a promise that I wasn't coming back the rest of the week. With that warning duly given, here's what I played tonight, lines from Matchbook unless otherwise designated:
NBA
Timberwolves +3.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Feels so wrong, it must be right.
Clippers -1 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
I'm working on a theory that sometimes the better players win. Sounds crazy, I know, but nothing else is working right now.
Spurs -1 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
I've been against the Spurs a lot recently as they've been getting public support despite their horrendous cast surrounding Duncan these days. But, the worm has turned.
College Basketball
South Florida +7.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
It's been a while since Matchbook didn't have clearly superior lines in a given sport (they are awesome for baseball, not so much for college hoops). Virginia's 10-point "dismantling" of VMI doesn't inspire confidence in their hopes without Singletary.
Wofford +23.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
A short trip from Spartanburg to Clemson to get your ass kicked. Still, if you're ever close to Wofford, make sure you grab a meal at The Beacon (sort of like the Varsity in Atlanta). Wait, that's probably not a good reason to bet on a school.....
Morehead State +15 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
A very different Drake team from last year, but the betting doesn't look like it.
NHL
Washington +122, 0.5 units to win 0.61 units
Yeah. Um, that Russian kid is supposed to be good, right?
NBA
Timberwolves +3.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Feels so wrong, it must be right.
Clippers -1 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
I'm working on a theory that sometimes the better players win. Sounds crazy, I know, but nothing else is working right now.
Spurs -1 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
I've been against the Spurs a lot recently as they've been getting public support despite their horrendous cast surrounding Duncan these days. But, the worm has turned.
College Basketball
South Florida +7.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
It's been a while since Matchbook didn't have clearly superior lines in a given sport (they are awesome for baseball, not so much for college hoops). Virginia's 10-point "dismantling" of VMI doesn't inspire confidence in their hopes without Singletary.
Wofford +23.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
A short trip from Spartanburg to Clemson to get your ass kicked. Still, if you're ever close to Wofford, make sure you grab a meal at The Beacon (sort of like the Varsity in Atlanta). Wait, that's probably not a good reason to bet on a school.....
Morehead State +15 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
A very different Drake team from last year, but the betting doesn't look like it.
NHL
Washington +122, 0.5 units to win 0.61 units
Yeah. Um, that Russian kid is supposed to be good, right?
Handicapper Found Hanged In Closet
It wouldn't be a terrible shock to the people who know me if my life ended this way, but they would've probably assumed erotic asphyxiation was the cause, rather than frustration over the early basketball results. Two more college hoops losses yesterday by 2 points or less. I think I'm gonna pull a Costanza and just do the opposite of every play that looks right - the squares are cleaning up right now.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Tuesday Smorgasbord
Too many sports in one night, no time for explanations:
College Football
Kent State +3 -114, 1.14 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Minnesota +130, 0.5 units to win 0.65 units
NBA
Bobcats +5 +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units
Pacers -3 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Nets +5.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
College Basketball
La Salle +3 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Tennessee-Martin +25 -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Cal State Northridge +11 -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
San Diego State +3 +111, 1 unit to win 1.11 units
Whew. Enjoy.
College Football
Kent State +3 -114, 1.14 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Minnesota +130, 0.5 units to win 0.65 units
NBA
Bobcats +5 +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units
Pacers -3 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Nets +5.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
College Basketball
La Salle +3 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Tennessee-Martin +25 -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Cal State Northridge +11 -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
San Diego State +3 +111, 1 unit to win 1.11 units
Whew. Enjoy.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Monday Hoops, Part Deux
It's looking like my decision not to play Troy is going to turn out to be as brilliant as my other decisions lately. Here's the rest of the crap, lines from Matchbook:
College Basketball
Cornell +4 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Loyola-Chicago +5.5 -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
UMass +14 +118, 1 unit to win 1.18 units
NBA
Clippers -2.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Waited too long on some of those lines....
College Basketball
Cornell +4 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Loyola-Chicago +5.5 -115, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
UMass +14 +118, 1 unit to win 1.18 units
NBA
Clippers -2.5 -110, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Waited too long on some of those lines....
Old Time Hockey
A sport that I watch a lot (basketball) is killing me lately, so I'll go with a game I know nothing about:
Ottawa +138 (Matchbook), 0.50 units to win 0.69 units
Hopefully, I'll find time to come back in a couple of hours to post a couple of losing basketball picks.
Monday Hoops, Part I
I'm sure there will be another pick or two later, but wanted to get in the early evening plays before I get too busy this afternoon. Lines from Matchbook:
James Madison +16 -114, 1.14 units to win 1 unit
No surprise that Davidson and Stephen Curry will be getting the public love tonight, but they lost some significant pieces to graduation in the offseason. I'm thinking this one stays close.
Siena -12.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Is that a favorite? Holy crap, that doesn't happen very often. No public consensus on this one, but Siena is head and shoulders above Boise State in terms of talent and experience (all 5 starters back). This one gets ugly early, and then hopefully we don't suffer the last-second back-door cover. I'm not sure I can take any more 1-3 point misses this week.
James Madison +16 -114, 1.14 units to win 1 unit
No surprise that Davidson and Stephen Curry will be getting the public love tonight, but they lost some significant pieces to graduation in the offseason. I'm thinking this one stays close.
Siena -12.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Is that a favorite? Holy crap, that doesn't happen very often. No public consensus on this one, but Siena is head and shoulders above Boise State in terms of talent and experience (all 5 starters back). This one gets ugly early, and then hopefully we don't suffer the last-second back-door cover. I'm not sure I can take any more 1-3 point misses this week.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Sunday Afternoon
The NFL picks were posted on Friday. Here are the rest of the sports for the afternoon, lines from Matchbook:
College Basketball
William & Mary +8 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Ohio really only has one good player (Tillman). Bill & Mary have better shooting and some decent bodies up front. Oh, and the 8 points we're getting.
New Mexico +3 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
The Lobos get Danridge back at the 3 after missing last season with injury, which gives them a well-balanced lineup going into this one. Nobody in the frontcourt for Creighton with any proven ability, which should make the difference.
San Jose State +14 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit
Nebraska looks like it's gonna be a pretty bad team this year, while SJ St. is at least decent at all the starting positions. Line moving our way here as well.
Long Beach State +21 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
One of our few winning picks in college hoops so far this year was LB St. vs. BYU a couple of days ago. All 5 starters back from an admittedly awful team last year for Long Beach. If stud Donovan Morris can shoot a little better than in the first game (averaged more than 20 points per game last year), they should be able to stay within 20 of a Wisconsin team that doesn't look like anything special.
NHL
Tampa Bay +130, 0.5 units to win 0.65 units
I don't really have anything to say here. It's hockey. Flip a coin.
College Basketball
William & Mary +8 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Ohio really only has one good player (Tillman). Bill & Mary have better shooting and some decent bodies up front. Oh, and the 8 points we're getting.
New Mexico +3 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
The Lobos get Danridge back at the 3 after missing last season with injury, which gives them a well-balanced lineup going into this one. Nobody in the frontcourt for Creighton with any proven ability, which should make the difference.
San Jose State +14 -112, 1.12 units to win 1 unit
Nebraska looks like it's gonna be a pretty bad team this year, while SJ St. is at least decent at all the starting positions. Line moving our way here as well.
Long Beach State +21 -102, 1.02 units to win 1 unit
One of our few winning picks in college hoops so far this year was LB St. vs. BYU a couple of days ago. All 5 starters back from an admittedly awful team last year for Long Beach. If stud Donovan Morris can shoot a little better than in the first game (averaged more than 20 points per game last year), they should be able to stay within 20 of a Wisconsin team that doesn't look like anything special.
NHL
Tampa Bay +130, 0.5 units to win 0.65 units
I don't really have anything to say here. It's hockey. Flip a coin.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
And the Rest
In the 3 minutes I have to myself today, here's the rest that we played for tonight, all for one unit or to win one unit:
College Football
Vanderbilt +4 -113
Washington +6.5 +104
Troy +16.5 +100
College Basketball
Chattanooga +16.5 +100
Elon +18 +101
Fairfield +19.5 -110
Good luck everybody.
College Football
Vanderbilt +4 -113
Washington +6.5 +104
Troy +16.5 +100
College Basketball
Chattanooga +16.5 +100
Elon +18 +101
Fairfield +19.5 -110
Good luck everybody.
Takin' It Easy
So many near misses yesterday, I feel like I got kicked in the head. Got plans today, so only a couple for the afternoon, lines from Matchbook:
College Football
Kansas +13 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
College Basketball
Eastern Illinois +8.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Hopefully, will find time to look at tonight's games.
College Football
Kansas +13 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
College Basketball
Eastern Illinois +8.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Hopefully, will find time to look at tonight's games.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Just One Freaking Point
Thanks for the heartbreak ETSU/Temple. I'm getting really sick of missing by 1 point or half a point. Very busy day today and only had time for college basketball tonight. All to win 1 unit:
William & Mary +105 -110 (WSEX)
SMU +10.5 -110 (WSEX)
Long Beach State +18.5 -104 (Matchbook)
Hofstra +17.5 -110 (WSEX)
I'm a little bummed that Matchbook didn't have better lines for these games than other places. The Wizards in the NBA are a guaranteed win because I'm passing on them tonight. Didn't have time to finish the college football for tomorrow, but hope to have some of them up late tonight or early in the morning. Never even looked at hockey today. Good luck everybody.
William & Mary +105 -110 (WSEX)
SMU +10.5 -110 (WSEX)
Long Beach State +18.5 -104 (Matchbook)
Hofstra +17.5 -110 (WSEX)
I'm a little bummed that Matchbook didn't have better lines for these games than other places. The Wizards in the NBA are a guaranteed win because I'm passing on them tonight. Didn't have time to finish the college football for tomorrow, but hope to have some of them up late tonight or early in the morning. Never even looked at hockey today. Good luck everybody.
NFL Week 11
Before I get into this week's NFL picks, I would like to tip my 40 in fond remembrance of Fire Joe Morgan, which went to the big intertubes in the sky this week. It has always been my favorite sports blog, and I'm legitimately bummed about its demise. Yes, I realize how dorky that makes me.
Onward and upward. A couple picks now, and a couple more games worth keeping eye on over the weekend:
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not doubting the legitimacy of this apparently dominant Giants team. But I'm in the minority in thinking that the Ravens are also for real. This is a good football team (and to think, we got them at Over 6.5 wins before the season started). Also, I'm not a huge Eli believer. The Giants have won because they have the best running game in the league in my opinion. But if anyone's gonna stop Jacobs and company, it's the Ravens. They're so good against the run that if I had Jacobs on my fantasy football team this year, I'd think about benching him this week. I expect the Ravens to keep it close. We'll fade the public here, as per usual (61% on the Giants according to Wagerline).
By the way, this line is a BetUS special. It's at +7 elsewhere, after opening around +6.
Cincinnati Bengals +9.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
The Bengals are on a one-game winning streak! Seriously, you have to like what you saw from Fitzpatrick and Ocho Cinco last week. More to the point, however, I just don't see this year's Eagles squad as the kind of team that should be getting 9.5 points on the road. Even the line looks designed to get people to bet on the Eagles. "9.5? The Bengals will definitely lose by two scores, and that's ten points right there!" It seems to be working, too. 73% (yes, you read that correctly, 73%) of Wagerline on the Eagles at last check.
Seattle Seahawks +3.5 +100 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1 unit.
This is my favorite play of the weekend. First, we're getting a huge break from BetUS. The line is -3 with varying juice everywhere else I looked, and BetUS is handing out +3.5 with no juice. I may make this a two-unit play. Seahawks have been dreadful this year, but they're healthier now (except Hasselback of course), and their home field advantage is legendary. I see this game as Holmgren's last stand, and the Seahawks might very well win it outright. Not that I doubt the Cardinals, but they are coming off a short week and could possibly get caught looking ahead to the following week's potential NFC playoff preview against the Giants.
A couple more games to consider:
San Diego (at Pittsburgh). The Chargers are getting +5 or +5.5 in most places, and the public is all over the Steelers (68% at Wagerline). That seems odd to me, and I'm wondering if the big Monday Night game where they demolished Washington is somehow more prominent in bettor's minds than the fact that they lost at home to 5-4 Indianapolis last week. Brutal stretch schedule for the Steelers, by the way. Anyway, we may well add this game later, especially if it moves to +6.
Washington (hosting Dallas). Sure, the Skins probably won't have Portis. Sure, Romo is coming back. Still, I'm baffled to see the Skins as 1-2 point underdogs here. As I said to Hambone this morning, here is a complete list of the home underdogs in the NFL this week: Kansas City (1 win), Cincinnati (1 win), Seattle (2 wins), Jacksonville (4 wins, hosting undefeated Tennessee), and Washington (6 wins, including a road win over the team they're playing on Sunday). In the immortal words of the Sesame Street gang, one of these things is not like the others. This line is so out of whack that I'm suspicious of it, and I think I'll likely pass.
As always, your thoughts are welcome in the comments.
Onward and upward. A couple picks now, and a couple more games worth keeping eye on over the weekend:
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not doubting the legitimacy of this apparently dominant Giants team. But I'm in the minority in thinking that the Ravens are also for real. This is a good football team (and to think, we got them at Over 6.5 wins before the season started). Also, I'm not a huge Eli believer. The Giants have won because they have the best running game in the league in my opinion. But if anyone's gonna stop Jacobs and company, it's the Ravens. They're so good against the run that if I had Jacobs on my fantasy football team this year, I'd think about benching him this week. I expect the Ravens to keep it close. We'll fade the public here, as per usual (61% on the Giants according to Wagerline).
By the way, this line is a BetUS special. It's at +7 elsewhere, after opening around +6.
Cincinnati Bengals +9.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
The Bengals are on a one-game winning streak! Seriously, you have to like what you saw from Fitzpatrick and Ocho Cinco last week. More to the point, however, I just don't see this year's Eagles squad as the kind of team that should be getting 9.5 points on the road. Even the line looks designed to get people to bet on the Eagles. "9.5? The Bengals will definitely lose by two scores, and that's ten points right there!" It seems to be working, too. 73% (yes, you read that correctly, 73%) of Wagerline on the Eagles at last check.
Seattle Seahawks +3.5 +100 (BetUS), 1 unit to win 1 unit.
This is my favorite play of the weekend. First, we're getting a huge break from BetUS. The line is -3 with varying juice everywhere else I looked, and BetUS is handing out +3.5 with no juice. I may make this a two-unit play. Seahawks have been dreadful this year, but they're healthier now (except Hasselback of course), and their home field advantage is legendary. I see this game as Holmgren's last stand, and the Seahawks might very well win it outright. Not that I doubt the Cardinals, but they are coming off a short week and could possibly get caught looking ahead to the following week's potential NFC playoff preview against the Giants.
A couple more games to consider:
San Diego (at Pittsburgh). The Chargers are getting +5 or +5.5 in most places, and the public is all over the Steelers (68% at Wagerline). That seems odd to me, and I'm wondering if the big Monday Night game where they demolished Washington is somehow more prominent in bettor's minds than the fact that they lost at home to 5-4 Indianapolis last week. Brutal stretch schedule for the Steelers, by the way. Anyway, we may well add this game later, especially if it moves to +6.
Washington (hosting Dallas). Sure, the Skins probably won't have Portis. Sure, Romo is coming back. Still, I'm baffled to see the Skins as 1-2 point underdogs here. As I said to Hambone this morning, here is a complete list of the home underdogs in the NFL this week: Kansas City (1 win), Cincinnati (1 win), Seattle (2 wins), Jacksonville (4 wins, hosting undefeated Tennessee), and Washington (6 wins, including a road win over the team they're playing on Sunday). In the immortal words of the Sesame Street gang, one of these things is not like the others. This line is so out of whack that I'm suspicious of it, and I think I'll likely pass.
As always, your thoughts are welcome in the comments.
Friday Afternoon Hoops
That Miami-Ohio win was a lot less stressful than I expected, but the half-point NBA loss and 1.5-point football miss were plenty to keep my blood pressure boiling. One college game for this afternoon:
East Tennessee State +13 -110 (WSEX, Matchbook), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
71% of wagerline on Temple already as expected, but this line should actually drop over the next few hours. There's not this much difference between these two teams. Temple always screws me whether I bet for or against them, so buyer beware. Back later, probably with several plays for tonight.
East Tennessee State +13 -110 (WSEX, Matchbook), 1.1 units to win 1 unit
71% of wagerline on Temple already as expected, but this line should actually drop over the next few hours. There's not this much difference between these two teams. Temple always screws me whether I bet for or against them, so buyer beware. Back later, probably with several plays for tonight.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Thursday's Educated Guesses
One each from the real sports, and then a few hockey plays. Lines from Matchbook:
College Football
Wyoming +6.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
I circled this one on my sheet last night when it was +7, so hopefully that doesn't bite me in the ass. Running and defense should keep the Cowboys close.
College Basketball
Miami-Ohio +15 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
As expected, the public is huge on the Bruins tonight, but the seniors on the Miami squad should be able to hang within this number against the UCLA freshmen tonight.
NBA
Warriors +4.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Typically, I start the NBA season with a horrible record or an unsustainably great one. This season it's the former. This one looks so wrong, it must be right.
NHL
Los Angeles +174, 0.5 units to win 0.87 units
Tampa Bay +176, 0.5 units to win 0.88 units
Calgary +178, 0.5 units to win 0.89 units
If I can just win one of those 3 hockey picks, I'll feel pretty lucky.
College Football
Wyoming +6.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
I circled this one on my sheet last night when it was +7, so hopefully that doesn't bite me in the ass. Running and defense should keep the Cowboys close.
College Basketball
Miami-Ohio +15 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
As expected, the public is huge on the Bruins tonight, but the seniors on the Miami squad should be able to hang within this number against the UCLA freshmen tonight.
NBA
Warriors +4.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Typically, I start the NBA season with a horrible record or an unsustainably great one. This season it's the former. This one looks so wrong, it must be right.
NHL
Los Angeles +174, 0.5 units to win 0.87 units
Tampa Bay +176, 0.5 units to win 0.88 units
Calgary +178, 0.5 units to win 0.89 units
If I can just win one of those 3 hockey picks, I'll feel pretty lucky.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
All You Can Eat, Baby
Action on all the sports I could find tonight. I can't use my Pinnacle account anymore because Republicans think sports betting has something to do with terrorist attacks on our nation's ports, so no handball picks. Lines from Matchbook:
College Football
Kent State +1 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
I think it's just Kent now, but I always put the State on the end so I don't trick myself into thinking it's an abbreviation for Kentucky. Listen to the CSNY song "Four" if you want to know the reason they dropped the "State" out of the name. As for the actual game (history lesson over, I promise), Kent's running game makes the difference for the home team.
College Basketball
Northeastern +5.5 +121, 1 unit to win 1.21 units
Better team getting points, that's always good. Balanced team in Northeastern playing a team that doesn't fit their coach's style at all. Michigan's coach doesn't know what to do with a roster full of players who can't shoot.
NBA
Celitcs -10.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Hornets -2 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Two picks, and they're both favorites? Hell is freezing over right now. In order to make money, we need the only two undefeated teams in the league to lose tonight, so yeah, this isn't looking good.
NHL
Phoenix +122, 0.5 units to win 0.61 units
A coyote is a lot tougher than a blue jacket, right?
Whew. Good luck tonight.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Getting 'Em In Early Today
Another busy afternoon lurking, so getting the NBA and NHL picks in now. If you can, you should probably wait and see what the lines do over the next few hours, but I'm not gonna have the chance to do that today. Lines from Matchbook:
NBA
Bobcats +3 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Knicks +4 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
NHL
Pittsburgh +178, 0.5 units to win 0.89 units
Ottawa +150, 0.5 units to win 0.75 units
Los Angeles +110, 0.5 units to win 0.55 units
Might make it back tonight if there are any college basketball lines that look good, but no promises. Good luck everybody.
NBA
Bobcats +3 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Knicks +4 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
NHL
Pittsburgh +178, 0.5 units to win 0.89 units
Ottawa +150, 0.5 units to win 0.75 units
Los Angeles +110, 0.5 units to win 0.55 units
Might make it back tonight if there are any college basketball lines that look good, but no promises. Good luck everybody.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Monday Hoops & Pucks
Trying to keep track of the college game on the computer, which is no fun at all. The rest for tonight, lines from Matchbook:
NBA
Blazers +7 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Grizzlies +11.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
NHL
Tampa Bay +156, 0.50 units to win 0.78 units
Good luck everybody.
NBA
Blazers +7 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Grizzlies +11.5 +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
NHL
Tampa Bay +156, 0.50 units to win 0.78 units
Good luck everybody.
I'm So Excited
College hoops season has arrived. My nights are now booked for the next 4-5 months. It's probably a sign of sickness that I'm playing something on opening day, but here goes nothing:
Georgia Southern +7 +105 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Wagerline is apparently taking the day off today from college basketball, but Sports Insights is showing 70% Houston in the early going (too much work to do this afternoon to wait on the later numbers [tip-off at 4 PM EST], but that would be the smart thing to do). Houston has a little more bulk up front, but these teams are both heavily guard-oriented this year, and I give Georgia Southern the slight edge in that department. Game being played on a neutral site, so no factor there, except that Houston had a longer trip. Good luck everybody.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Sunday Night Foursome
Baby is driving me insane, so just the picks:
NBA
Thunder +4 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Grizzlies +8.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
NHL
Edmonton -102, 0.51 units to win 0.50 units
Phoenix +130, 0.50 units to win 0.65 units
_
NBA
Thunder +4 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Grizzlies +8.5 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
NHL
Edmonton -102, 0.51 units to win 0.50 units
Phoenix +130, 0.50 units to win 0.65 units
_
Sunday Afternoon Non-Football Picks
NFL were already posted here. Here's the rest for the other sports:
NBA
Knicks +4 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Clippers +4 +111 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.11 units
NHL
Atlanta +170 (Matchbook), 0.5 unit to win 0.85 units
Scrambling today. Back later.
NBA
Knicks +4 +101 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Clippers +4 +111 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.11 units
NHL
Atlanta +170 (Matchbook), 0.5 unit to win 0.85 units
Scrambling today. Back later.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Hardwood & Ice
I hate to bump Clint Eastwood down from the top of the blog (please don't tell him!), but have to do a quick post to add a couple of plays that aren't football:
NBA
Pacers -4.5 -110 1st half (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Betting is 50/50 but this line has plowed ahead in the Pacers' favor anyway (maybe the Devin Harris injury has something to do with that). The silly 1st half bet is just cowardice - afraid of the late back-door cover with a team that seems to lose it's focus after halftime. Not an endorsement of the coaching in Indy.
Bucks +5.5 +107 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.07 units
This one is ugly, especially with Michael Redd probably not playing (he's missed the last two games), but it's not any uglier than the picks last night that went 4-1. 70% of the bets on the Suns, but the line went the other way.
NHL
Tampa Bay +136 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.68 units
With a name like Lightning, they probably skate pretty fast.
NBA
Pacers -4.5 -110 1st half (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Betting is 50/50 but this line has plowed ahead in the Pacers' favor anyway (maybe the Devin Harris injury has something to do with that). The silly 1st half bet is just cowardice - afraid of the late back-door cover with a team that seems to lose it's focus after halftime. Not an endorsement of the coaching in Indy.
Bucks +5.5 +107 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.07 units
This one is ugly, especially with Michael Redd probably not playing (he's missed the last two games), but it's not any uglier than the picks last night that went 4-1. 70% of the bets on the Suns, but the line went the other way.
NHL
Tampa Bay +136 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.68 units
With a name like Lightning, they probably skate pretty fast.
I Had To Come Back
I feel like the hired killer in "The Outlaw Josey Wales" who Clint Eastwood (Josey) talks into leaving the saloon without having a shootout, then seconds later he walks back in through the swinging doors and says, "I had to come back." Clint responds, "I know" and then blasts the shit out of him. Great scene, and just like that anonymous assassin, honor compels me to return and play Clemson this afternoon, even though it kills me. Two additions, lines from Matchbook:
Clemson +3.5 -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Had to do it. Betting and line movement - something's up here.
Cincinnati +7 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Another one where the betting and line movement compel a play here. Cincy's run defense should be good to keep the Mountaineers in check.
Off to change diapers and work on the NBA card. Pretty much the same job either way.
Treading Lightly Today (Maybe)
After a great night last night, I'm a little hesitant about screwing it up. So, I'm going to add these four for the afternoon (already posted La. Tech and Northwestern yesterday) and then sit back and see how things unfold. I'm sure there will be something for tonight. In the explanations, I sometimes talk about stats and the like, but I would have never even looked at these games if the public betting and line movement didn't point me to them. Lines from Matchbook:
Nebraska -2 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Holy shit, a favorite! Don't see that too often. Kansas is not a good road team, and should have a lot trouble stopping the Huskers' passing game.
Army +9.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
I keep saying that Army has gotten much better this year, so I'm hoping they don't prove me wrong today. The Rice defense is horrendous.
Iowa State +9.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Got reamed the last time I picked Iowa State, so here's round 2. My anus hurts already.
Indiana +9.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Indiana has to stop the run to stay in this one. They should be able to put up enough points to keep this one close.
I'm trying to talk myself into Clemson, but I'm just not there yet. The line movement and betting is screaming for that one, but I'm on the fence (of course, I'm an idiot). Good luck today everybody.
Nebraska -2 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Holy shit, a favorite! Don't see that too often. Kansas is not a good road team, and should have a lot trouble stopping the Huskers' passing game.
Army +9.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
I keep saying that Army has gotten much better this year, so I'm hoping they don't prove me wrong today. The Rice defense is horrendous.
Iowa State +9.5 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Got reamed the last time I picked Iowa State, so here's round 2. My anus hurts already.
Indiana +9.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
Indiana has to stop the run to stay in this one. They should be able to put up enough points to keep this one close.
I'm trying to talk myself into Clemson, but I'm just not there yet. The line movement and betting is screaming for that one, but I'm on the fence (of course, I'm an idiot). Good luck today everybody.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Easing off the gas pedal- NFL Week 10
OK, so at this point we're looking at a certain 3-2 record on the win total over/unders (all of which are for multiple units), a likely 4-0-1 minimum, and a very possible 5-0. So I think the prudent thing to do is to ease up a bit on the weekly plays, which often don't present the same kind of value. Only two games this week:
Buffalo Bills +3.5 +100 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1 unit.
Around 60% on the Patriots according to both Wagerline and Sports Insights. The "Cassel is improving ... can the Pats be a contender again?" storyline is getting a lot of play this week. Meanwhile, Buffalo's DVOA (as per Football Outsiders) is better than New England's on both sides of the ball. Easy call here.
Oakland Raiders +10.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Value from our friends at BetUS; the game is +9.5 elsewhere. Oakland's a little more banged up than Carolina, so if you're iffy on this one you might want to keep an eye on that. I like what I'm hearing about McFadden, which helps the Raiders a lot on the offensive end.
Buffalo Bills +3.5 +100 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1 unit.
Around 60% on the Patriots according to both Wagerline and Sports Insights. The "Cassel is improving ... can the Pats be a contender again?" storyline is getting a lot of play this week. Meanwhile, Buffalo's DVOA (as per Football Outsiders) is better than New England's on both sides of the ball. Easy call here.
Oakland Raiders +10.5 -110 (BetUS), 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Value from our friends at BetUS; the game is +9.5 elsewhere. Oakland's a little more banged up than Carolina, so if you're iffy on this one you might want to keep an eye on that. I like what I'm hearing about McFadden, which helps the Raiders a lot on the offensive end.
Friday Night NBA
No need to do write-ups while I'm on a losing streak, so you are all spared. Lines from Matchbook:
Bobcats +7.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Nets +7.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Pacers +8.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Thunder +11 +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units
Clippers +5.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
I think I threw up in my mouth a little bit.....Back in the morning with college football additions.
Bobcats +7.5 +100, 1 unit to win 1 unit
Nets +7.5 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
Pacers +8.5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Thunder +11 +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units
Clippers +5.5 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
I think I threw up in my mouth a little bit.....Back in the morning with college football additions.
Friday Night Football, Plus Two
Didn't have time to do the usual 10 early picks this week, but honestly, I'm not sure there are ten picks I like that much this week anyway. One pick for tonight's game, and then two early picks for Saturday, lines from Matchbook:
Nevada -1 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
A three-point line movement from where this line opened at Fresno State -2, but the bets are coming in on Fresno State at a clip of over 70%. I've been saying for a couple of weeks that Fresno is a bad team, and we will find out for sure tonight. Fresno's running game is decent, but Nevada's run defense is #3 in the nation based on yardage allowed. On the other side, Nevada's #2 run offense (yardage) should feast on Fresno's horrendous run defense, which has allowed more than 200 yards per game on the ground.
Northwestern +11 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
First line I saw was Ohio State -11, and despite more than 60% betting on the Buckeyes, this line has either held steady, or actually dropped to Ohio State -10.5 at a lot of books. I know Bacher and Sutton are hurt, but the defense has done a decent job the past couple of weeks, and Ohio State isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut (no passing game at all). A close low-scoring game.
Louisiana Tech +7 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
I'm not sure what San Jose State has done to deserve all the public love, especially after squeaking out a win at Idaho in their last game. Line opened at San Jose State -8.5 and has steadily fallen all week, despite more bets coming in on them. Their defense is pretty good based on the numbers, but their offense is very poor. Louisiana Tech's only bad loss was at Army (although Army has really improved this year). Their only other losses were at Kansas, at Boise State, and at Hawaii, which are all very difficult places to play (to be fair, SJ St. won their game at Hawaii 20-17). San Jose State probably won't score enough points to threaten this spread.
Grover will be on at some point with the NFL picks, and there will definitely be some losing NBA/NHL picks for tonight up later so you guys know what NOT to play.
Nevada -1 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
A three-point line movement from where this line opened at Fresno State -2, but the bets are coming in on Fresno State at a clip of over 70%. I've been saying for a couple of weeks that Fresno is a bad team, and we will find out for sure tonight. Fresno's running game is decent, but Nevada's run defense is #3 in the nation based on yardage allowed. On the other side, Nevada's #2 run offense (yardage) should feast on Fresno's horrendous run defense, which has allowed more than 200 yards per game on the ground.
Northwestern +11 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
First line I saw was Ohio State -11, and despite more than 60% betting on the Buckeyes, this line has either held steady, or actually dropped to Ohio State -10.5 at a lot of books. I know Bacher and Sutton are hurt, but the defense has done a decent job the past couple of weeks, and Ohio State isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut (no passing game at all). A close low-scoring game.
Louisiana Tech +7 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
I'm not sure what San Jose State has done to deserve all the public love, especially after squeaking out a win at Idaho in their last game. Line opened at San Jose State -8.5 and has steadily fallen all week, despite more bets coming in on them. Their defense is pretty good based on the numbers, but their offense is very poor. Louisiana Tech's only bad loss was at Army (although Army has really improved this year). Their only other losses were at Kansas, at Boise State, and at Hawaii, which are all very difficult places to play (to be fair, SJ St. won their game at Hawaii 20-17). San Jose State probably won't score enough points to threaten this spread.
Grover will be on at some point with the NFL picks, and there will definitely be some losing NBA/NHL picks for tonight up later so you guys know what NOT to play.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
7-0 Last Night!
That's how you would've done yesterday if you went the opposite of all the picks I posted Wednesday (the misleading headline is an homage to the dirty tricks political campaigns that just ended [thank God]). Here are 4 picks to fade for Thursday, lines from Matchbook:
NBA
76ers +5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Phoenix +146, 0.5 units to win 0.73 units
St. Louis +266, 0.5 units to win 1.33 units
After the beating last night, I'm just pretty much going against the wagerline folks today. My ass hurts......
NBA
76ers +5 -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NHL
Phoenix +146, 0.5 units to win 0.73 units
St. Louis +266, 0.5 units to win 1.33 units
After the beating last night, I'm just pretty much going against the wagerline folks today. My ass hurts......
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Wednesday Pucks & Buck(et)s
My apologies again for the late post, as I know that a lot of you need to know what we're playing so you can go the opposite way, but the real world gets in the way. All lines from Matchbook, and no explanations (and there was much rejoicing....):
NBA
Pacers +2.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +6.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Grizzlies +3 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Clippers +13 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
NHL
Tampa Bay +118, 0.5 units to win 0.59 units
St. Louis +164, 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
That looks like a lot of basketball games, but there were a few more that I had to weed out. Good luck everybody.
NBA
Pacers +2.5 -104, 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Blazers +6.5 -108, 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Grizzlies +3 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Clippers +13 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
NHL
Tampa Bay +118, 0.5 units to win 0.59 units
St. Louis +164, 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
That looks like a lot of basketball games, but there were a few more that I had to weed out. Good luck everybody.
Wednesday Night Football
That sounds weird. Probably working a little later than usual tonight, so I'm going to go ahead and put this in now:
Northern Illinois +9 +108 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Much better defense for NIU tonight. A little concerned about Ball State's passing game, but NIU is 8th in the nation in passing yards allowed, so hopefully they can stay within the number tonight. Can we win another weeknight game? Yes we can! (Yes we can! Yes we can!)
Hopefully, I'll get home in time to do NBA and NHL tonight, but no promises.
Northern Illinois +9 +108 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Much better defense for NIU tonight. A little concerned about Ball State's passing game, but NIU is 8th in the nation in passing yards allowed, so hopefully they can stay within the number tonight. Can we win another weeknight game? Yes we can! (Yes we can! Yes we can!)
Hopefully, I'll get home in time to do NBA and NHL tonight, but no promises.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Tuesday Hoops & Hockey
It's hard for me to get the picks up earlier than this on weekdays sometimes, all lines from Matchbook:
NBA:
Rockets -3 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Line moved against the World Champs? I smell a rat.
Mavericks +4 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
I think my opinion of the surrounding cast around Duncan and Parker has been stated to death. It's crap.
NHL
Ottawa -112, 0.56 units to win 0.5 units
Come on, the Senators on Election Night? That can't lose.
Nashville +136, 0.50 units to win 0.68 units
These teams look pretty similar to me, so taking the dog. What do you want me to say? I've seen two hockey games in my life.
Minnesota +170, 0.50 units to win 0.85 units
I've played the Wild twice already this season and they've lost both times, so I'm feeling very confident on this one.
Good luck everybody.
NBA:
Rockets -3 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Line moved against the World Champs? I smell a rat.
Mavericks +4 +106, 1 unit to win 1.06 units
I think my opinion of the surrounding cast around Duncan and Parker has been stated to death. It's crap.
NHL
Ottawa -112, 0.56 units to win 0.5 units
Come on, the Senators on Election Night? That can't lose.
Nashville +136, 0.50 units to win 0.68 units
These teams look pretty similar to me, so taking the dog. What do you want me to say? I've seen two hockey games in my life.
Minnesota +170, 0.50 units to win 0.85 units
I've played the Wild twice already this season and they've lost both times, so I'm feeling very confident on this one.
Good luck everybody.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Monday Night, But No Football
Let's try this basketball and hockey thing again. Do over!
NBA
Bobcats +3.5 -104 (Matchbook), 1.04 units to win 1 unit
I was considering the Bobcats +5 or +6 before news of the trade broke. Charlotte competes pretty hard at home, and without Billups/McDyess (and don't forget, Cheikh Samb), I think they can take one off a team that should be a little shell-shocked by the news.
Magic -7.5 -108 (Matchbook), 1.08 units to win 1 unit
I think it's interesting what the Bulls are doing with their lineup - starting Rose/Sefolosha/Deng/Thomas/Gooden and bringing Hinrich, Gordon, and Nocioni off the bench. Their second unit is going to be a lot better than that of most teams in the league. However, their first team is going to be incredibly overmatched in Orlando tonight, especially with the unexpected offensive output from newcomer Pietrus (20 points in 2 of the 3 games).
76ers -6.5 -110 1st half (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Just trying something here, folks. Work with me.
NHL
Buffalo -106 (Matchbook), 0.53 units to win 0.50 units
Their mascot is the Sabres. I don't know if that's the fencing sword or a particularly-toothed extinct tiger, but either way, that sounds a lot tougher than most of the other teams I've been playing lately.
Good luck everybody.
NBA
Bobcats +3.5 -104 (Matchbook), 1.04 units to win 1 unit
I was considering the Bobcats +5 or +6 before news of the trade broke. Charlotte competes pretty hard at home, and without Billups/McDyess (and don't forget, Cheikh Samb), I think they can take one off a team that should be a little shell-shocked by the news.
Magic -7.5 -108 (Matchbook), 1.08 units to win 1 unit
I think it's interesting what the Bulls are doing with their lineup - starting Rose/Sefolosha/Deng/Thomas/Gooden and bringing Hinrich, Gordon, and Nocioni off the bench. Their second unit is going to be a lot better than that of most teams in the league. However, their first team is going to be incredibly overmatched in Orlando tonight, especially with the unexpected offensive output from newcomer Pietrus (20 points in 2 of the 3 games).
76ers -6.5 -110 1st half (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Just trying something here, folks. Work with me.
NHL
Buffalo -106 (Matchbook), 0.53 units to win 0.50 units
Their mascot is the Sabres. I don't know if that's the fencing sword or a particularly-toothed extinct tiger, but either way, that sounds a lot tougher than most of the other teams I've been playing lately.
Good luck everybody.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Baskets and Pucks
For later today/tonight:
_ NBA _
Timberwolves +1.5 -104 (Matchbook), 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Every time I look at Oklahoma City's lineup, I get a little nauseous.
_ NHL _
Toronto +152 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.76 units
Calgary +164 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
Maple Leafs (Leaves?) and Flames. Those nicknames don't inspire a lot of confidence.
_ NBA _
Timberwolves +1.5 -104 (Matchbook), 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Every time I look at Oklahoma City's lineup, I get a little nauseous.
_ NHL _
Toronto +152 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.76 units
Calgary +164 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
Maple Leafs (Leaves?) and Flames. Those nicknames don't inspire a lot of confidence.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Saturday Night Fever
Really running short on time today, so no rambling explanations, just the picks, all lines from Matchbook:
College Football
Tennessee/South Carolina Under 37.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Bobcats -3 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Cavaliers +3 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Bucks -1 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Trailblazers +8 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units
NHL
Atlanta +190, 0.5 units to win 0.95 units
Florida +164, 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
Gotta run, good luck everybody.
College Football
Tennessee/South Carolina Under 37.5 -101, 1.01 units to win 1 unit
NBA
Bobcats -3 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Cavaliers +3 +102, 1 unit to win 1.02 units
Bucks -1 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Trailblazers +8 +109, 1 unit to win 1.09 units
NHL
Atlanta +190, 0.5 units to win 0.95 units
Florida +164, 0.5 units to win 0.82 units
Gotta run, good luck everybody.
Saturday Afternoon Additions
This feels like a lot of additions this morning, especially with 3 picks already posted last night for mid-afternoon, but it just turned out that all these games are early in the afternoon. If I was adding a couple now and a couple for tonight, it wouldn't seem like so many. At least, that's what I'm telling myself as I crack open a new bottle of bourbon for the Noon Eastern time bloodbath that's about to ensue. All lines from Matchbook, all to win 1 unit:
Army +8.5 -115
Army is having a Duke-like resurgence all of a sudden this year. In my mind, and that of most people, Air Force is a good team and Army is lousy. However, if you look at the numbers, they are pretty much the same team, except one of them is getting more than a touchdown at home. This line is +7.5 -110 most places right now, so I really enjoyed finding this alternative line at Matchbook a few minutes ago.
Wisconsin +5.5 -103
Over 70% on the Spartans today, but I give a slight edge to Wisconsin, so happy to take the points in what will probably be a low-scoring contest.
Kansas State +8.5 -106
Two high-powered passing offenses, and two terrible pass defenses (Kansas is just about the worst in the country), so this one looks like a shootout today. We get key football numbers 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 without having to sell our souls with a teaser. Nice.
Louisiana Tech +5 -109
The opening game win at Rutgers in September fooled everybody into thinking that Fresno State is a good team. They are not.
Back later with NBA and hockey for sure, and probably another football game for tonight as well. Good luck everybody.
Army +8.5 -115
Army is having a Duke-like resurgence all of a sudden this year. In my mind, and that of most people, Air Force is a good team and Army is lousy. However, if you look at the numbers, they are pretty much the same team, except one of them is getting more than a touchdown at home. This line is +7.5 -110 most places right now, so I really enjoyed finding this alternative line at Matchbook a few minutes ago.
Wisconsin +5.5 -103
Over 70% on the Spartans today, but I give a slight edge to Wisconsin, so happy to take the points in what will probably be a low-scoring contest.
Kansas State +8.5 -106
Two high-powered passing offenses, and two terrible pass defenses (Kansas is just about the worst in the country), so this one looks like a shootout today. We get key football numbers 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 without having to sell our souls with a teaser. Nice.
Louisiana Tech +5 -109
The opening game win at Rutgers in September fooled everybody into thinking that Fresno State is a good team. They are not.
Back later with NBA and hockey for sure, and probably another football game for tonight as well. Good luck everybody.
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