Maybe playing a few too many after a good day yesterday, but screw it, they are what they are. All lines from Matchbook, risking one unit on each:
MLB
Mariners +139
Bluejays +100
Royals +166
Rangers +178
Dodgers +155
If we can get just 2 of those, we'll be OK.
College Football
Kentucky +3 +111
Betting and line movement favor the Wildcats, and since they're also the better team, this was a no-brainer. Unfortunately, no-brainer usually equals loser.
Good luck today everybody. When the hell am I going to sleep and eat when the NFL starts next weekend?
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Sunday Tennis
On a really good run at the U.S. Open this week (jinx!), so let's see how much longer this lasts:
T. Robredo +155 (Matchbook) over J. Tsonga, 1 unit to win 1.55 units
Still don't trust Tsonga's reconstructed knee yet. Back with baseball soon.
T. Robredo +155 (Matchbook) over J. Tsonga, 1 unit to win 1.55 units
Still don't trust Tsonga's reconstructed knee yet. Back with baseball soon.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Adding a baseball play
Pittsburgh Pirates +109 (Matchbook and WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.09 units.
We love Maholm. Best value out there.
We love Maholm. Best value out there.
Two Sport Athlete
If I had any brains, I would just take my winnings and call it a day. But I'm an idiot, so here are a few more for tonight. Haven't heard from Grover since he e-mailed me the Bluejays winner this morning, so I guess he couldn't get permission from his girlfriend to use the computer again today, and you're stuck with me the rest of the way. On to the picks, all lines from Matchbook:
College Football
Wow, Utah is much, much better than Michigan. If not for a fumble and the Big Ten officiating crew making every penalty call in Michigan's favor, this game would be a rout. Two more for tonight:
Michigan State +6 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Nicely balanced Spartan team traveling to California tonight. Cal's defense should be solid, but there's not much to like about their offense. Should be a close one.
Clemson -4 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Hey, sometimes the public gets it right. If you took Alabama's players and put them in Mississippi State uniforms, the line would be closer to -10 than -4. It could go the other way, but much more talent and experience on the Tigers side tonight. And I can't stand the Clemson Tigers (born and raised a Gamecock fan).
Considered Memphis and Florida Atlantic, but 6 games is plenty for one day.
MLB
Royals +180, 1 unit to win 1.80 units
Kenny Rogers has pitched less like The Gambler and more like The Coward of the County this year. I hate myself for typing that shit.
A's +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Braden not too shabby. Should be a low-scoring contest.
Good luck everybody.
College Football
Wow, Utah is much, much better than Michigan. If not for a fumble and the Big Ten officiating crew making every penalty call in Michigan's favor, this game would be a rout. Two more for tonight:
Michigan State +6 +105, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Nicely balanced Spartan team traveling to California tonight. Cal's defense should be solid, but there's not much to like about their offense. Should be a close one.
Clemson -4 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Hey, sometimes the public gets it right. If you took Alabama's players and put them in Mississippi State uniforms, the line would be closer to -10 than -4. It could go the other way, but much more talent and experience on the Tigers side tonight. And I can't stand the Clemson Tigers (born and raised a Gamecock fan).
Considered Memphis and Florida Atlantic, but 6 games is plenty for one day.
MLB
Royals +180, 1 unit to win 1.80 units
Kenny Rogers has pitched less like The Gambler and more like The Coward of the County this year. I hate myself for typing that shit.
A's +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Braden not too shabby. Should be a low-scoring contest.
Good luck everybody.
One Baseball Game, Then Taking a Break
For the afternoon games, we could only agree on one:
Bluejays +156 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.56 units
Even pitching matchup, good line on the underdog.
Bluejays +156 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.56 units
Even pitching matchup, good line on the underdog.
U.S. Open - Saturday
What kind of a-hole handicaps a tennis tournament on opening Saturday of the college football season? That would be me.
D. Nalbandian -150 (WSEX) over G. Monfils, 1.5 units to win 1 unit
M. Fish +188 (Matchbook) over J. Blake, 1 unit to win 1.88 units
Back later. Busy day. Maybe you'll get lucky and my wife will go into labor this morning, thus sparing you from any more nonsense from me for a while.
D. Nalbandian -150 (WSEX) over G. Monfils, 1.5 units to win 1 unit
M. Fish +188 (Matchbook) over J. Blake, 1 unit to win 1.88 units
Back later. Busy day. Maybe you'll get lucky and my wife will go into labor this morning, thus sparing you from any more nonsense from me for a while.
College Football Kickoff
My impulse is always to play about 20 games the first Saturday of the season, but I can usually calm myself down enough to keep it to a more reasonable number. Playing four in the afternoon, lines from Matchbook:
East Carolina +9 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
After giving the Hokies fits in Blacksburg last year, ECU gets this year's game in front of a lot of home fans in Charlotte, NC. Virginia Tech is not nearly as strong a team as last season, returning only 4 starters on defense and facing some big question marks at running back and receiver on offense.
Utah +3 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Utah looks pretty good this year, getting back a lot skill players on offense that were lost early last season to injury. For Michigan, you take a mediocre team from last year, strip away all the playmakers on offense (Henne, Hart, Manningham, etc.), and you're left with this year's team. Defense could be solid, but who's going to score?
Bowling Green +13 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
A solid MAC team travels to face a Big East team that is getting way too much hype in my opinion. Mark May has been pimping his alma mater on ESPN lately, and 73% of the wagerline folks are following along. McCoy is great at running back, but there's not much else to get excited about, and his production could be affected by a new offensive line with injury concerns. Bowling Green's offense returns a lot of talent, and this one should be pretty close.
Akron +27 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
I debated with myself a lot about wheter to play this one, but then my sickness took over and here it is. Obviously, Wisconsin is getting a huge amount of public action, and Akron is not expected to be very good. With 71% of wagerline on the Badgers, and the line retreating from -28 to -26 or 26.5 at most places, this game showed up on my radar pretty early. Badgers have questions at QB and receiver, but have a great running back and tight end. Hopefully, this leads to a slow-moving ball-control offense and not a lot of scoring. P. J. Hill is likely to carry the ball over 200 times today. Akron won't score much either, but their defense is decent for MAC school and held mighty Ohio State to only 20 points just last season.
Good luck everybody. Back later with tonight's games, baseball, and maybe even tennis. Damn, I should have gotten up earlier.
East Carolina +9 -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
After giving the Hokies fits in Blacksburg last year, ECU gets this year's game in front of a lot of home fans in Charlotte, NC. Virginia Tech is not nearly as strong a team as last season, returning only 4 starters on defense and facing some big question marks at running back and receiver on offense.
Utah +3 +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Utah looks pretty good this year, getting back a lot skill players on offense that were lost early last season to injury. For Michigan, you take a mediocre team from last year, strip away all the playmakers on offense (Henne, Hart, Manningham, etc.), and you're left with this year's team. Defense could be solid, but who's going to score?
Bowling Green +13 +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
A solid MAC team travels to face a Big East team that is getting way too much hype in my opinion. Mark May has been pimping his alma mater on ESPN lately, and 73% of the wagerline folks are following along. McCoy is great at running back, but there's not much else to get excited about, and his production could be affected by a new offensive line with injury concerns. Bowling Green's offense returns a lot of talent, and this one should be pretty close.
Akron +27 -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
I debated with myself a lot about wheter to play this one, but then my sickness took over and here it is. Obviously, Wisconsin is getting a huge amount of public action, and Akron is not expected to be very good. With 71% of wagerline on the Badgers, and the line retreating from -28 to -26 or 26.5 at most places, this game showed up on my radar pretty early. Badgers have questions at QB and receiver, but have a great running back and tight end. Hopefully, this leads to a slow-moving ball-control offense and not a lot of scoring. P. J. Hill is likely to carry the ball over 200 times today. Akron won't score much either, but their defense is decent for MAC school and held mighty Ohio State to only 20 points just last season.
Good luck everybody. Back later with tonight's games, baseball, and maybe even tennis. Damn, I should have gotten up earlier.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Can't Restrain Myself
Maybe a little square, but I'm going to go with my initial lean on one college football game tonight:
Temple -7 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
I know Army won rather handily last year, which makes this line even more appealing to me, frankly. I won a few times last year on Temple because they were so underrated, but had recruited a lot of talent recently. The young players got a ton of experience last year, and 21 starters are back to continue the climb back to respectability. Army looks to be awful with only 9 guys back who started last year. Really like how Coach Golden has been rebuilding this team the past couple of years. Go Owls.
We'll try to get the afternoon games up either tonight (depending on what time I get home and what state I'm in at the time) or as early as possible in the morning. Good luck everybody, have a good night.
Temple -7 -106, 1.06 units to win 1 unit
I know Army won rather handily last year, which makes this line even more appealing to me, frankly. I won a few times last year on Temple because they were so underrated, but had recruited a lot of talent recently. The young players got a ton of experience last year, and 21 starters are back to continue the climb back to respectability. Army looks to be awful with only 9 guys back who started last year. Really like how Coach Golden has been rebuilding this team the past couple of years. Go Owls.
We'll try to get the afternoon games up either tonight (depending on what time I get home and what state I'm in at the time) or as early as possible in the morning. Good luck everybody, have a good night.
I Almost Didn't Notice
That the WNBA had started up again. Football, schmootball.
New York Liberty +6 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.5 units
New York is a bigger city than Detroit, so it seems like they should win. Right?
New York Liberty +6 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.5 units
New York is a bigger city than Detroit, so it seems like they should win. Right?
Friday Night Baseball
Just two so far for tonight, although there could be a late addition (Dodgers) if Grover can talk me into it. Lines from Matchbook:
White Sox +155, 1 unit to win 1.55 units
We know we're being stubborn with fading Dice-K, but teams are going to figure out that gyroball at some point (Bluejays knocked him around some in his last start), and the walks he's issuing are going to bite him before the season's over. Vazquez pitching well and this is a good number for the visitors.
Mariners +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
King Felix as the dog against Sowers, but 68% of the wagerline crowd on the Indians. Much better control and strikeout-potential taking the mound for Seattle tonight.
Probably no football tonight. When the lines first came out, I was leaning to Temple -5, but now at -7 or -7.5, it's not so appealing anymore.
White Sox +155, 1 unit to win 1.55 units
We know we're being stubborn with fading Dice-K, but teams are going to figure out that gyroball at some point (Bluejays knocked him around some in his last start), and the walks he's issuing are going to bite him before the season's over. Vazquez pitching well and this is a good number for the visitors.
Mariners +108, 1 unit to win 1.08 units
King Felix as the dog against Sowers, but 68% of the wagerline crowd on the Indians. Much better control and strikeout-potential taking the mound for Seattle tonight.
Probably no football tonight. When the lines first came out, I was leaning to Temple -5, but now at -7 or -7.5, it's not so appealing anymore.
Friday at the Open
Three tennis picks for today:
I. Minar +156 (Matchbook) over J. Nieminen, 0.5 units to win 0.78 units
T. Robredo -120 (WSEX) over M. Safin, 0.60 units to win 0.50 units
M. Cilic -138 (Matchbook) over R. Ginepri, 0.69 units to win 0.50 units
Don't like these quite as much as the picks over the past few days, thus the cowardly half-unit wagers.
I. Minar +156 (Matchbook) over J. Nieminen, 0.5 units to win 0.78 units
T. Robredo -120 (WSEX) over M. Safin, 0.60 units to win 0.50 units
M. Cilic -138 (Matchbook) over R. Ginepri, 0.69 units to win 0.50 units
Don't like these quite as much as the picks over the past few days, thus the cowardly half-unit wagers.
Curse of the 5-Run 8th Inning?
We need Vegas Watch to calculate the odds of that bullshit happening. Both picks winning by 3 runs going into the 8th, then our teams both give up 5 runs in the bottom of that inning to lose the game. What are the odds?
Maybe we should just be a tennis blog.....
Maybe we should just be a tennis blog.....
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Baseball Tonight
Two for Thursday night, lines from Matchbook:
Phillies +129, 2 units to win 2.58 units
When we first saw this line, we were a little taken aback, but with all the Cubs love out there, and Dempster's impressive-looking 15-5 record, it makes sense that folks are backing the Cubs today. But, giving Hamels this number does not make any sense.
Rangers +166, 1 unit to win 1.66 units
Garland is not very good, and he doesn't strike anybody out. I guess 67% of the wagerline folks don't notice that kind of thing when THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL is playing. Crazy high.
Good luck everybody.
Phillies +129, 2 units to win 2.58 units
When we first saw this line, we were a little taken aback, but with all the Cubs love out there, and Dempster's impressive-looking 15-5 record, it makes sense that folks are backing the Cubs today. But, giving Hamels this number does not make any sense.
Rangers +166, 1 unit to win 1.66 units
Garland is not very good, and he doesn't strike anybody out. I guess 67% of the wagerline folks don't notice that kind of thing when THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL is playing. Crazy high.
Good luck everybody.
Are You Ready......
for some football? Two plays for opening night:
Stanford +3 -107 (Matchbook), 1.07 units to win 1 unit
I'm not sure where all the public interest in Oregon State is coming from, except for their 9-4 record last year. Lame QB and they only return 3 starters on defense (lost all of the front 7). Stanford returns 16 starters from last year's team which showed real potential in a couple of big upsets. 64% of wagerline on Oregon State, but the line has moved from -4 back to -3. A good sign for us.
Baylor +11.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Purely a play on the public betting (68% on Wake) and the line move (from -13 back to -11 at most places now).
Lean to UTEP also, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. The Under in the South Carolina looks too good to be true. Good luck everybody.
Stanford +3 -107 (Matchbook), 1.07 units to win 1 unit
I'm not sure where all the public interest in Oregon State is coming from, except for their 9-4 record last year. Lame QB and they only return 3 starters on defense (lost all of the front 7). Stanford returns 16 starters from last year's team which showed real potential in a couple of big upsets. 64% of wagerline on Oregon State, but the line has moved from -4 back to -3. A good sign for us.
Baylor +11.5 -110 (WSEX), 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Purely a play on the public betting (68% on Wake) and the line move (from -13 back to -11 at most places now).
Lean to UTEP also, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. The Under in the South Carolina looks too good to be true. Good luck everybody.
A Hero For Our Times
Lately a new firewall at work has been preventing me from daytime posting, and a broken laptop at home has kept me off the internets entirely at night. Thankfully, the laptop has been replaced and it will be business as usual come Friday night.
In the meantime, the workplace internet firewall has not kept me from finding a new favorite athlete: Florida tailback Chris Rainey. Has he already surpassed Ichiro and Sir Charles as the greatest quote machine of our times? I'll let you decide. First, there was this fantastic episode, where he got into some hot water when he told a reporter how great it was to "be Chris Rainey" because people give you free stuff and walk up to you at a restaurant and hand you money. And there's this one, in which he shares his tremendous disappointment that his Sex Ed class at U of F has nothing in common with Cinemax's late-night programming.
But this, my friends, is the piece de resistance.
I know my good friend Hambone thinks that comparing anyone to Sir Charles in any thing is pure blasphemy. But even he cannot deny the brilliance of Chris Rainey.
Enjoy the College Football season, all.
In the meantime, the workplace internet firewall has not kept me from finding a new favorite athlete: Florida tailback Chris Rainey. Has he already surpassed Ichiro and Sir Charles as the greatest quote machine of our times? I'll let you decide. First, there was this fantastic episode, where he got into some hot water when he told a reporter how great it was to "be Chris Rainey" because people give you free stuff and walk up to you at a restaurant and hand you money. And there's this one, in which he shares his tremendous disappointment that his Sex Ed class at U of F has nothing in common with Cinemax's late-night programming.
But this, my friends, is the piece de resistance.
I know my good friend Hambone thinks that comparing anyone to Sir Charles in any thing is pure blasphemy. But even he cannot deny the brilliance of Chris Rainey.
Enjoy the College Football season, all.
Thursday Tennis
Only one line that looks good in the U.S. Open today:
M. Fish +145 (Matchbook) over P. Mathieu, 1 unit to win 1.45 units
I'm seeing this line at only +120 in some places, so I was happy to find this one.
M. Fish +145 (Matchbook) over P. Mathieu, 1 unit to win 1.45 units
I'm seeing this line at only +120 in some places, so I was happy to find this one.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Just One
Today's card was really crappy. Only one more that we both agree is playable:
A's +230 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 1.15 units
Football can't get here fast enough.......
A's +230 (Matchbook), 0.5 units to win 1.15 units
Football can't get here fast enough.......
Wednesday Afternoon
Running late today. Just one for the afternoon:
Pirates +164 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.64 units
For Marquis? Really?
Pirates +164 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.64 units
For Marquis? Really?
Wednesday Whoops
Two of the tennis bets that I played for yesterday are actually being played today. Whoops. Either way, the bets are in, so everybody pull for Guccione and Mahut today.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Three Dog Night
Three on the diamond for this evening. All lines from Matchbook:
Orioles +141, 1 unit to win 1.41 units
The standard fade of Floyd. Need the O's to keep up their hitting.
Bluejays +105, 2 units to win 2.1 units
Doc's not getting the respect he should be this year. Grover said something about their "third order records" being close, so there's that, whatever that means.
A's +232, 0.5 units to win 1.16 units
Smith has looked pretty good recently, and at this number, he's worth a shot here, even if the A's can't hit their way out of a paper bag.
Two days to football season......
Orioles +141, 1 unit to win 1.41 units
The standard fade of Floyd. Need the O's to keep up their hitting.
Bluejays +105, 2 units to win 2.1 units
Doc's not getting the respect he should be this year. Grover said something about their "third order records" being close, so there's that, whatever that means.
A's +232, 0.5 units to win 1.16 units
Smith has looked pretty good recently, and at this number, he's worth a shot here, even if the A's can't hit their way out of a paper bag.
Two days to football season......
Tuesday Tennis Tilt
Two 5-set losers yesterday, while the passes of course won. So, today, I'm playing all the ones that look good. Lines from Matchbook, 1 unit on the dogs, to win 1 unit on the favorites:
F. Serra +131 over R. Schuettler
G. Garcia-Lopez -149 over D. Hrbaty
N. Mahut -121 over R. Kendrick
T. Haas +155 over R. Gasquet
J. Chardy -124 over F. Gil
C. Guccione -101 over J. Levine
P. Capdeville -142 over T. Alves
Come on, baby.
F. Serra +131 over R. Schuettler
G. Garcia-Lopez -149 over D. Hrbaty
N. Mahut -121 over R. Kendrick
T. Haas +155 over R. Gasquet
J. Chardy -124 over F. Gil
C. Guccione -101 over J. Levine
P. Capdeville -142 over T. Alves
Come on, baby.
Monday, August 25, 2008
NFL Win Total Bets 2.1
Adding one more:
Baltimore Ravens Over 6 Wins -120 (WSEX), 3.6 units to win 3 units
The Ravens were the unluckiest team in football last year. Their defense performed well on first and second downs, but gave up an inordinate number of third down completions. Pro Football Prospectus tells me that when this happens, it's usually bad luck as much as anything else (an oversimplification of PFP, but you get the picture), and the team's defensive performance often improves the next year.
PFP projects 8.5 wins. I'm happy to lay -120 on Over 6 wins. Really, could their uncertainty at QB for 2008 result in anything worse than their production at qb in 2007?
Baltimore Ravens Over 6 Wins -120 (WSEX), 3.6 units to win 3 units
The Ravens were the unluckiest team in football last year. Their defense performed well on first and second downs, but gave up an inordinate number of third down completions. Pro Football Prospectus tells me that when this happens, it's usually bad luck as much as anything else (an oversimplification of PFP, but you get the picture), and the team's defensive performance often improves the next year.
PFP projects 8.5 wins. I'm happy to lay -120 on Over 6 wins. Really, could their uncertainty at QB for 2008 result in anything worse than their production at qb in 2007?
NFL Win Total Bets 2.0: Our First Set of Wagers
A couple weeks ago I posted my initial thoughts about the NFL Win Total lines. After some comments from you all, some further research, and discussion between Hambone and myself, we're ready to commit to these:
Green Bay Packers Over 8 Wins -130 (WSEX), 5.2 units to win 4 units
I'm surprised this didn't get cheaper in the wake of the Favre departure. Maybe it did, but then Aaron Rodgers' competence and the signing of Ryan Grant brought it back. I don't know. What I do know is that Pro Football Prospectus projected 11.4 wins, and I don't see any reason to think they completely whiffed on this one. The team has talent at virtually every position. If there's a hole, I guess maybe it's the secondary, but who exactly do you see in the NFL North that can exploit that hole? The Lions? Funny you should mention them ....
Detroit Lions Under 6.5 Wins +100 (WSEX), 3 units to win 3 units
The Lions 6-2 start to the season was a mirage. In fact, even their 7-9 record was underserved, coming against weakened opponents by small margins, while getting blown out of the water every time they faced a challenge, save perhaps for one decent road win against a mediocre Bears team. I am not the first to document this. Pro Football Prospectus did so in great detail (thus the 4.3 win projection) and I assume The Money Line Journal explained it as well, although I can no longer read his blog due to a new workplace firewall and a malfunctioning laptop. Anyway, there's not a lot to like about the 2008 Lions.
Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins +105 (Matchbook), 3 units to win 3.15 units
I admit it- I'm afraid to make a huge bet on this team's failure, even though the numbers suggest I should do so. Maybe it's because they've shown either incredible good fortune or "something else" by staying far more healthy than the average NFL team over the last three years. I figure I should hedge a bit in case it's "something else," i.e. a talented medical staff and/or some sort of performance enhancing drugs. Note that I have no evidence to back up that last allegation, other than the complete lack of morality shown by this franchise over the last 15 years. Note also that I am a Redskins fan.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8 Wins -135 (Matchbook), 2.7 units to win 2 units.
Pro Football Prospectus projects 10.5 wins, and as I said in my last post, Jon Gruden is the second-best coach in the NFL. The juice is tough to handle, but worth a couple units here.
Green Bay Packers Over 8 Wins -130 (WSEX), 5.2 units to win 4 units
I'm surprised this didn't get cheaper in the wake of the Favre departure. Maybe it did, but then Aaron Rodgers' competence and the signing of Ryan Grant brought it back. I don't know. What I do know is that Pro Football Prospectus projected 11.4 wins, and I don't see any reason to think they completely whiffed on this one. The team has talent at virtually every position. If there's a hole, I guess maybe it's the secondary, but who exactly do you see in the NFL North that can exploit that hole? The Lions? Funny you should mention them ....
Detroit Lions Under 6.5 Wins +100 (WSEX), 3 units to win 3 units
The Lions 6-2 start to the season was a mirage. In fact, even their 7-9 record was underserved, coming against weakened opponents by small margins, while getting blown out of the water every time they faced a challenge, save perhaps for one decent road win against a mediocre Bears team. I am not the first to document this. Pro Football Prospectus did so in great detail (thus the 4.3 win projection) and I assume The Money Line Journal explained it as well, although I can no longer read his blog due to a new workplace firewall and a malfunctioning laptop. Anyway, there's not a lot to like about the 2008 Lions.
Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins +105 (Matchbook), 3 units to win 3.15 units
I admit it- I'm afraid to make a huge bet on this team's failure, even though the numbers suggest I should do so. Maybe it's because they've shown either incredible good fortune or "something else" by staying far more healthy than the average NFL team over the last three years. I figure I should hedge a bit in case it's "something else," i.e. a talented medical staff and/or some sort of performance enhancing drugs. Note that I have no evidence to back up that last allegation, other than the complete lack of morality shown by this franchise over the last 15 years. Note also that I am a Redskins fan.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8 Wins -135 (Matchbook), 2.7 units to win 2 units.
Pro Football Prospectus projects 10.5 wins, and as I said in my last post, Jon Gruden is the second-best coach in the NFL. The juice is tough to handle, but worth a couple units here.
Monday Comeback
After the late-innings losses from yesterday, I'll take anything but 0-3 today. I think I just guaranteed an 0-3. Lines from Matchbook:
Dodgers +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Astros +191, 1 unit to win 1.91 units
Padres -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
_
Dodgers +101, 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Astros +191, 1 unit to win 1.91 units
Padres -103, 1.03 units to win 1 unit
_
Sunday, August 24, 2008
U.S. Open - Day 1
In the final tennis grand slam, lines from Bookmaker:
F. Lopez -105 over J. Melzer, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
F. Fognini +135 over W. Odesnik, 0.5 units to win 0.68 units
Back with more heartbreaking extra-innings baseball losers Monday afternoon.
Screw You
Twins - lost lead in the 8th inning
Bluejays - lost in 11th
Reds - lost in 12th
Somebody up there hates us.........
Sunday's Dogs
Three for this afternoon, lines from Matchbook:
Bluejays +128, 1 unit to win 1.28 units
Should only need half the run support that Litsch got yesterday.
Twins +152, 1 unit to win 1.52 units
Only 17 walks this season for Slowey, which is ridiculously good.
Reds +180, 1 unit to win 1.80 units
Maybe this dog is a little too public, but I still think there's value here.
Good luck, folks.
Bluejays +128, 1 unit to win 1.28 units
Should only need half the run support that Litsch got yesterday.
Twins +152, 1 unit to win 1.52 units
Only 17 walks this season for Slowey, which is ridiculously good.
Reds +180, 1 unit to win 1.80 units
Maybe this dog is a little too public, but I still think there's value here.
Good luck, folks.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
USA! USA!
The U.S. will win the gold in basketball while I'm sleeping, but I don't think they'll cover the big spread even if Calderon sits:
Spain +21.5 +102 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.02 units
I think Spain was sandbagging a little bit in the last game, which was meaningless as to the elimination round seedings.
Spain +21.5 +102 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.02 units
I think Spain was sandbagging a little bit in the last game, which was meaningless as to the elimination round seedings.
Two For Tonight
There were a few possibilities, but in the end, we're playing just these two. Lines from Matchbook:
Twins +130, 1 unit to win 1.30 units
Reds +147, 1 unit to win 1.47 units
Probably won't have much time to look at the NFL preseason games tonight. Maybe a basketball play late night.
Twins +130, 1 unit to win 1.30 units
Reds +147, 1 unit to win 1.47 units
Probably won't have much time to look at the NFL preseason games tonight. Maybe a basketball play late night.
Saturday Afternoon
Nice day yesterday. Trying not to screw it up today. Lines from Matchbook:
Bluejays +154, 1 unit to win 1.54 units
Pitching matchup pretty close, giving the home team a shot.
Braves +149, 1 unit to win 1.49 units
Neither pitcher has been sharp lately, line's a little too high.
Back later.....
Bluejays +154, 1 unit to win 1.54 units
Pitching matchup pretty close, giving the home team a shot.
Braves +149, 1 unit to win 1.49 units
Neither pitcher has been sharp lately, line's a little too high.
Back later.....
Friday, August 22, 2008
Riding the Wave
Hopefully, the horseshoe that was up my ass this morning for the two hoops winners by the slightest possible margins is still lodged up there somewhere. Gotta run to a poker game, so just the picks without the babbling. All lines from Matchbook:
Dodgers +112, 1 unit to win 1.12 units
Pirates +250, 0.5 units to win 1.25 units
Rays +167, 1 unit to win 1.67 units
Twins +170, 1 unit to win 1.70 units
Good luck everybody.
Dodgers +112, 1 unit to win 1.12 units
Pirates +250, 0.5 units to win 1.25 units
Rays +167, 1 unit to win 1.67 units
Twins +170, 1 unit to win 1.70 units
Good luck everybody.
Today's Hero
Jasikevicius' "meaningless" 3-pointer with 6 seconds to go seals the cover for the Lithuanians. For all you do, this post's for you, Sarunas.
The Final Four
In the Olympics hoops semi-finals, lines from WSEX, 1.1 units to win 1 unit on each:
Lithuania +6
Argentina +20.5
These teams have earned more respect than these lines reflect (the rhyming there was an accident). They've been playing better than that. Hopefully, they can keep it going one more day. Go USA! Win by 15!
Lithuania +6
Argentina +20.5
These teams have earned more respect than these lines reflect (the rhyming there was an accident). They've been playing better than that. Hopefully, they can keep it going one more day. Go USA! Win by 15!
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Lines Are Moving
The lines on the games I like for tonight have all started moving against me, which hopefully is a good sign. I'm going to go ahead and get them in now before they move any more. All lines from Matchbook:
Braves +126, 1 unit to win 1.26 units
Better pitcher starting for the underdog tonight.
Padres +146, 1 unit to win 1.46 units
A really good price for Peavy. Haren has been a little off lately.
Giants -120, 1.20 units to win 1 unit
San Fran as a favorite? That's fishy enough by itself to justify a bet.
As always, good luck everybody.
Braves +126, 1 unit to win 1.26 units
Better pitcher starting for the underdog tonight.
Padres +146, 1 unit to win 1.46 units
A really good price for Peavy. Haren has been a little off lately.
Giants -120, 1.20 units to win 1 unit
San Fran as a favorite? That's fishy enough by itself to justify a bet.
As always, good luck everybody.
Getting One In Early
I'm not sure what my day is going to turn into today, so thought I should get the afternoon pick in while I have a second.
Mariners +198 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.98 units
The compulsory Floyd fade. White Sox aren't hitting that much better than Seattle to justify this line.
P.S. Couldn't Croatia pick up one or two more stinking points somewhere? Damn.
Mariners +198 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.98 units
The compulsory Floyd fade. White Sox aren't hitting that much better than Seattle to justify this line.
P.S. Couldn't Croatia pick up one or two more stinking points somewhere? Damn.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
I Hope the U.S. Wins
I really do. But, they don't have to win by more than 31, right? Two for the quarterfinal round, lines from Matchbook:
Croatia +12 +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Australia +31 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Good night everybody.
Croatia +12 +115, 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Australia +31 -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Good night everybody.
Big Chalk Tuesday
I can't remember the last time there were this many big lines on the same day. Narrowed it down to just these three, lines from Matchbook:
Orioles +154, 1 unit to win 1.54 units
Maybe we're just stubborn, but Dice-K's luck can't last forever.
Astros +224, 0.5 units to win 1.12 units
Moehler and Sheets both pitching well, with the edge to Sheets in strikeouts. Still, Brewers advantage not as big as this line would suggest.
Reds +276, 0.5 units to 1.38 units
We would lean to play this number in almost any spot, but getting a decent Cueto on our side helps.
Back later with any adds, and probably a couple of Olympic hoops picks for the overnight games.
Orioles +154, 1 unit to win 1.54 units
Maybe we're just stubborn, but Dice-K's luck can't last forever.
Astros +224, 0.5 units to win 1.12 units
Moehler and Sheets both pitching well, with the edge to Sheets in strikeouts. Still, Brewers advantage not as big as this line would suggest.
Reds +276, 0.5 units to 1.38 units
We would lean to play this number in almost any spot, but getting a decent Cueto on our side helps.
Back later with any adds, and probably a couple of Olympic hoops picks for the overnight games.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Monday Night Baseball
Always makes the workday go by more pleasantly when there's a game to keep track of and it actually ends up winning. I e-mailed these to Grover early this morning, but I think he may be out of town for several more days. It wouldn't surprise him in the least if he comes back later this week and finds that we've either lost or gained 20 units. All lines from Matchbook:
Rays -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Another opportunity to fade THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL.
Astros +270, 0.5 units to win 1.35 units
Holy smokes! If I were pitching for Houston, I could understand this line (barely), but Jesus Christ, did Wolf's arm fall off?
Mariners +210, 0.5 units to win 1.05 units
Neither pitcher is anything to write home about, but folks are falling all over themselves to bet on Buehrle. Unreal.
_
Rays -105, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Another opportunity to fade THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL.
Astros +270, 0.5 units to win 1.35 units
Holy smokes! If I were pitching for Houston, I could understand this line (barely), but Jesus Christ, did Wolf's arm fall off?
Mariners +210, 0.5 units to win 1.05 units
Neither pitcher is anything to write home about, but folks are falling all over themselves to bet on Buehrle. Unreal.
_
Monday Afternoon
MLB
Pirates +125 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.25 units
Maholm pitching well this year. We'll take the home dog.
Tennis
At the Pilot Pen, lines from Matchbook, each risking 0.5 units:
G. Garcia-Lopez +112
I. Kunitsyn +156
Pirates +125 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.25 units
Maholm pitching well this year. We'll take the home dog.
Tennis
At the Pilot Pen, lines from Matchbook, each risking 0.5 units:
G. Garcia-Lopez +112
I. Kunitsyn +156
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Sunday Night Bases and Hoops
One more for baseball:
Padres +204 (Matchbook), 0.50 units to win 1.02 units
Neither team can hit lately, and Hamels starting to look human. Worth half a unit at this price.
And in Olympic basketball, all lines from WSEX and all to win 1 unit:
Angola +29.5
Spain showed in its game vs. the USA that it knows how to play a game with less than maximum effort. The US should have won either way, but Spain didn't have any real motivation to try. By losing the game with the US, Spain is locked into the #2 seed in Group B, which means they won't have to face either the US or Argentina until the gold medal game. Nothing to gain in this game either, so there's no motivation to blow out Angola by 30+.
Germany +35
Hopefully, the US team has learned something from the rest of the world about not spending all your energy and/or risking injury in the preliminary rounds. The result will have no effect on seeding, so hopefully they take their foot off the gas pedal a little bit and cruise to an easy victory.
Argentina -8.5
This seems to contradict everything I said above, because Argentina has no motivation to win this game either, but the Russian team is just nowhere near as good as Argentina (especailly with Kryapa at less than 100%) and this line isn't ridiculously high like the first two. Argentina should cover this spread pretty easily even if the starters rest a fair amount.
_
Padres +204 (Matchbook), 0.50 units to win 1.02 units
Neither team can hit lately, and Hamels starting to look human. Worth half a unit at this price.
And in Olympic basketball, all lines from WSEX and all to win 1 unit:
Angola +29.5
Spain showed in its game vs. the USA that it knows how to play a game with less than maximum effort. The US should have won either way, but Spain didn't have any real motivation to try. By losing the game with the US, Spain is locked into the #2 seed in Group B, which means they won't have to face either the US or Argentina until the gold medal game. Nothing to gain in this game either, so there's no motivation to blow out Angola by 30+.
Germany +35
Hopefully, the US team has learned something from the rest of the world about not spending all your energy and/or risking injury in the preliminary rounds. The result will have no effect on seeding, so hopefully they take their foot off the gas pedal a little bit and cruise to an easy victory.
Argentina -8.5
This seems to contradict everything I said above, because Argentina has no motivation to win this game either, but the Russian team is just nowhere near as good as Argentina (especailly with Kryapa at less than 100%) and this line isn't ridiculously high like the first two. Argentina should cover this spread pretty easily even if the starters rest a fair amount.
_
One More Afternoon Game
The more I look at it, I don't think I can pass the Seattle line. Adding:
Mariners +194, 0.5 units to win 0.97 units
So, now, the only sure thing is the Nationals. Back later.
Mariners +194, 0.5 units to win 0.97 units
So, now, the only sure thing is the Nationals. Back later.
Lazy Sunday
Several possibilities today, but the way things have been going, I trimmed it down to just these 3. Lines from Matchbook:
Marlins +135, 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Indians +143, 1 units to win 1.43 units
Reds -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Your guaranteed winners are Washington and Seattle, because I'm passing on those. Lean to Padres in the night game, but I'm gonna see how things go in the early games first. Last round of preliminary games in Olympic hoops starts tonight, with a lot of interesting strategic situations in play (i.e. has a team clinched their spot or do they have a motivation to play hard?). Back later.
Marlins +135, 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Indians +143, 1 units to win 1.43 units
Reds -107, 1.07 units to win 1 unit
Your guaranteed winners are Washington and Seattle, because I'm passing on those. Lean to Padres in the night game, but I'm gonna see how things go in the early games first. Last round of preliminary games in Olympic hoops starts tonight, with a lot of interesting strategic situations in play (i.e. has a team clinched their spot or do they have a motivation to play hard?). Back later.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Saturday Night Fever
Heading out with the wife in a few minutes, so no time for explanations (not many folks on the computer on Saturday anyway):
MLB
Giants +130 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.30 units
With Palmer starting for SF, not Sanchez.
Rays -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit
Very square. At least I restrained myself from playing the "public dog" Baltimore.
NFLx
Ravens -1 -118 (Matchbook), 0.59 units to win 0.50 units
Dolphins +3.5 -106 (Matchbook), 0.53 units to win 0.50 units
_
MLB
Giants +130 (WSEX), 1 unit to win 1.30 units
With Palmer starting for SF, not Sanchez.
Rays -111, 1.11 units to win 1 unit
Very square. At least I restrained myself from playing the "public dog" Baltimore.
NFLx
Ravens -1 -118 (Matchbook), 0.59 units to win 0.50 units
Dolphins +3.5 -106 (Matchbook), 0.53 units to win 0.50 units
_
Just One For The Afternoon
Running late today (long night).
Royals +168, 1 unit to win 1.68 units
Is Ponson up for the Cy Young this season? Way too high.
Good luck everybody. Back later with tonight's games.
Royals +168, 1 unit to win 1.68 units
Is Ponson up for the Cy Young this season? Way too high.
Good luck everybody. Back later with tonight's games.
2008 College Football Letdown Spots - ACC Part 2
A few days ago, I posted potential letdown spots for the ACC Atlantic Division. With the introductory babbling and disclaimers already taken care of in the first post, on to the Coastal Division:
Duke
- 9/6/08 vs. Northwestern -
As mentioned briefly in the last post, it's tough to find letdown spots for teams that seem to have a letdown every week. But, thanks to the point spread, you can wager on a shitty team being especially shitty on a given week. Coming off a probable win vs. James Madison in the first week, and getting one win is better than some recent Duke teams have managed in a whole season, look for the Blue Devils to get their asses handed to them against revenge-minded (or, at least, embarrassed) Northwestern, who got caught looking ahead to the whupping they were going to get from Ohio State last year and were upset by Duke. Not this year.
Georgia Tech
- 9/20/08 vs. Mississippi State -
This game just comes at a bad scheduling spot for the Jackets, showing up after consecutive road games at Boston College (9/6) and Virginia Tech (9/13), and just before a BYE week. It's going to be tough for the Georgia Tech players to keep their focus in that spot, especially in a non-conference game.
Miami
- 9/27/08 vs. North Carolina -
9/6 at Florida
9/13 BYE
9/20 at Texas A&M
9/27 v. UNC
10/4 v. Florida State
'Nuff said.
North Carolina
- 10/4/08 vs. Connecticut -
UNC has popped up a few times on this list as the team that could take advantage of another team's letdown. On October 4, they welcome UConn to Chapel Hill in the middle of a series of tough games. When the UConn game kicks off, the Heels will have faced Rutgers, Virginia Tech, and a road game at Miami in consecutive weeks, The week after the Connecticut game, Notre Dame comes to town with all of the undeserved hype that travels with the Irish.
Virginia
- 9/13/08 at Connecticut -
Why is UConn picking on the ACC teams? I didn't see any great letdown spots for UVA, but this one was the closest thing to it. After getting thrashed by USC in their opener on August 30, UVA gets to take their frustrations out on Richmond the following week, and then travel to UConn the next Saturday, with a BYE week to look forward to the following week.
Virginia Tech
- 11/6/08 vs. Maryland -
Nobody seems to know what to make of Maryland this season, but the Hokies better find a way to keep their energy up for this game. Virginia Tech travels to Boston College (the only ACC team to beat them last year) on 10/18, then to Tallahassee to face Florida State on 10/25, then back home for Maryland before traveling back to Florida to face Miami on 11/13. I know castrated roosters are famous for their focus, but that's a lot of travel in one stretch of games.
Less than 2 weeks away from the start of the season. Up next, the Big East.
Duke
- 9/6/08 vs. Northwestern -
As mentioned briefly in the last post, it's tough to find letdown spots for teams that seem to have a letdown every week. But, thanks to the point spread, you can wager on a shitty team being especially shitty on a given week. Coming off a probable win vs. James Madison in the first week, and getting one win is better than some recent Duke teams have managed in a whole season, look for the Blue Devils to get their asses handed to them against revenge-minded (or, at least, embarrassed) Northwestern, who got caught looking ahead to the whupping they were going to get from Ohio State last year and were upset by Duke. Not this year.
Georgia Tech
- 9/20/08 vs. Mississippi State -
This game just comes at a bad scheduling spot for the Jackets, showing up after consecutive road games at Boston College (9/6) and Virginia Tech (9/13), and just before a BYE week. It's going to be tough for the Georgia Tech players to keep their focus in that spot, especially in a non-conference game.
Miami
- 9/27/08 vs. North Carolina -
9/6 at Florida
9/13 BYE
9/20 at Texas A&M
9/27 v. UNC
10/4 v. Florida State
'Nuff said.
North Carolina
- 10/4/08 vs. Connecticut -
UNC has popped up a few times on this list as the team that could take advantage of another team's letdown. On October 4, they welcome UConn to Chapel Hill in the middle of a series of tough games. When the UConn game kicks off, the Heels will have faced Rutgers, Virginia Tech, and a road game at Miami in consecutive weeks, The week after the Connecticut game, Notre Dame comes to town with all of the undeserved hype that travels with the Irish.
Virginia
- 9/13/08 at Connecticut -
Why is UConn picking on the ACC teams? I didn't see any great letdown spots for UVA, but this one was the closest thing to it. After getting thrashed by USC in their opener on August 30, UVA gets to take their frustrations out on Richmond the following week, and then travel to UConn the next Saturday, with a BYE week to look forward to the following week.
Virginia Tech
- 11/6/08 vs. Maryland -
Nobody seems to know what to make of Maryland this season, but the Hokies better find a way to keep their energy up for this game. Virginia Tech travels to Boston College (the only ACC team to beat them last year) on 10/18, then to Tallahassee to face Florida State on 10/25, then back home for Maryland before traveling back to Florida to face Miami on 11/13. I know castrated roosters are famous for their focus, but that's a lot of travel in one stretch of games.
Less than 2 weeks away from the start of the season. Up next, the Big East.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Overnight Hoops
Heading out for a few hours and can't guarantee what condition I'll be in when I return, so getting these in now:
Australia +9 +114 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Croatia +8 -110 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.50 units
To a renowned international basketball expert like me (insert self-deprecating insult here), these games look a lot more like toss-ups than double-digit affairs. If I had any balls at all, I would be on the moneyline on each one. Still thinking about Spain plus the points tomorrow. The irrational Grover-free weekend continues tomorrow.....
Australia +9 +114 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Croatia +8 -110 (WSEX), 0.55 units to win 0.50 units
To a renowned international basketball expert like me (insert self-deprecating insult here), these games look a lot more like toss-ups than double-digit affairs. If I had any balls at all, I would be on the moneyline on each one. Still thinking about Spain plus the points tomorrow. The irrational Grover-free weekend continues tomorrow.....
Friday Night Baseball
There were a lot of good-looking plays for tonight, but I've managed to whittle the list down to these four. Does my use of the word "whittle" give away my redneck roots? Lines from Matchbook:
Indians -135, 1.35 units to win 1 unit
I foolishly expected the public to be on Cliff Lee and the Indians early this morning when the line was just -117. Of course, I overestimated them again. It doesn't matter that Lee (who we were saying was for real back in May) is better than Weaver, I had forgotten that the Angels were "the best team in baseball."
Royals +191, 1 unit to win 1.91 units
Meche is quietly pitching very well this year. These ain't the 1960's Yankees playing tonight, folks.
Reds +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Arroyo is the better pitcher today, but all you see when you look at the ESPN scoreboard is Arroyo (10-9, 5.44 ERA). Works for us.
Giants +143, 1 unit to win 1.43 units
Grover is out of town, but I'm sure he would be upset if his favorite pitcher won tonight and we weren't on it.
Probably back later with overnight picks for Olympic hoops. With Grover offline, there's nobody around to keep me in check. Are there any sites other than Pinnacle where I can get in some action on handball and badminton?
Indians -135, 1.35 units to win 1 unit
I foolishly expected the public to be on Cliff Lee and the Indians early this morning when the line was just -117. Of course, I overestimated them again. It doesn't matter that Lee (who we were saying was for real back in May) is better than Weaver, I had forgotten that the Angels were "the best team in baseball."
Royals +191, 1 unit to win 1.91 units
Meche is quietly pitching very well this year. These ain't the 1960's Yankees playing tonight, folks.
Reds +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Arroyo is the better pitcher today, but all you see when you look at the ESPN scoreboard is Arroyo (10-9, 5.44 ERA). Works for us.
Giants +143, 1 unit to win 1.43 units
Grover is out of town, but I'm sure he would be upset if his favorite pitcher won tonight and we weren't on it.
Probably back later with overnight picks for Olympic hoops. With Grover offline, there's nobody around to keep me in check. Are there any sites other than Pinnacle where I can get in some action on handball and badminton?
Thursday, August 14, 2008
The Man is Keeping Me Down
My workplace has recently added a browser filter of some kind that prevents me from reviewing sites like Wagerline.com. Obviously I can't even get near an actual bookmaking site. Thus I depend on Hambone for all of my information, and he will be doing more of the weekday posting in the future.
Only one play tonight:
Los Angeles Dodgers -116 (Matchbook), 1.16 units to win 1 unit.
I like Kuroda, and I doubt I'd get much argument if I say that he's the better of the two starting pitchers in Chavez Ravine tonight (the other is Myers). I think the line refects public opinion that the Phillies are in the "hot" NL East race, while the Dodgers are going at it in the "pathetic" NL West. But the teams are separated by only three games in the standings, and zero games in the third-order standings. We're willing to bear a little juice to take the Dodgers at home here.
Only one play tonight:
Los Angeles Dodgers -116 (Matchbook), 1.16 units to win 1 unit.
I like Kuroda, and I doubt I'd get much argument if I say that he's the better of the two starting pitchers in Chavez Ravine tonight (the other is Myers). I think the line refects public opinion that the Phillies are in the "hot" NL East race, while the Dodgers are going at it in the "pathetic" NL West. But the teams are separated by only three games in the standings, and zero games in the third-order standings. We're willing to bear a little juice to take the Dodgers at home here.
Thursday Afternoon on the Diamond
Almost a clean sweep yesterday - just needed another 13 runs or so from the Nats. I predict that you won't be seeing many more Nationals picks from us this year. One early game for today:
Bluejays +200 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2 units
Did somebody die in Toronto? Holy crap, I didn't realize Galarraga was the reincarnation of Nolan Ryan. I missed that story somehow.
Bluejays +200 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2 units
Did somebody die in Toronto? Holy crap, I didn't realize Galarraga was the reincarnation of Nolan Ryan. I missed that story somehow.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Olympics Hoops Thursday
One advantage (or disadvantage) of the baseball slump is that I got Grover to allow me to post some basketball picks. It also helped that the last two I e-mailed to him (China and Croatia) were both winners. The first of these games starts at some ungodly hour (4:45 AM EST), so I thought I'd better go ahead and get them in now so you folks can get your bets in on the other side. All lines from WSEX, all for 0.55 units to win 0.50 units:
Lithuania -6 over Russia
Greece +20.5 over USA
Croatia +6 over Argentina
I was really dismayed to hear that Kobe was the only U.S. player to watch Greece's last game. When asked about it, Lebron said that if Kobe was there scouting them, then that's the same as all of them being there. Um, yeah. Not exactly.
Lithuania -6 over Russia
Greece +20.5 over USA
Croatia +6 over Argentina
I was really dismayed to hear that Kobe was the only U.S. player to watch Greece's last game. When asked about it, Lebron said that if Kobe was there scouting them, then that's the same as all of them being there. Um, yeah. Not exactly.
Wednesday Bases
All right, we can't pick our noses right now, so we're going to pull back on the reins a little bit until we get this thing figured out. The other option was doubling the number of plays, but I didn't have the votes to get that through. So, just two losers for tonight:
Nationals +129, 1 unit to win 1.29 units
Don't need to explain this one - we're masochists.
Mariners +138, 1 unit to win 1.38 units
72% on the Angels. We would have leaned to this one regardless of pitcher, but getting King Felix on our side is icing on the cake.
Good luck everybody (even if you choose to go the opposite of every pick we make). Probably back tonight with Olympic hoops picks.
Nationals +129, 1 unit to win 1.29 units
Don't need to explain this one - we're masochists.
Mariners +138, 1 unit to win 1.38 units
72% on the Angels. We would have leaned to this one regardless of pitcher, but getting King Felix on our side is icing on the cake.
Good luck everybody (even if you choose to go the opposite of every pick we make). Probably back tonight with Olympic hoops picks.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Tuesday Night Baseball
Daddy needs a couple of winners tonight. Lines from Matchbook:
Rangers +149, 1 unit to win 1.49 units
According to Grover, Boston's starter, Zink, is a knuckleballer like Wakefield, who he's replacing, except that Zink isn't any good. Sounds just like a pitcher who should be getting a -160 line.
Giants +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Oswalt is no longer the All-Star he used to be, but he's still treated like one by the public. Lincecum = stud.
Mariners +180, 1 unit to win 1.80 units
73% of wagerline on the Angels and Jon Garland. I guess it's because the Angels are "the best team in baseball." There is no way there's that much difference between Garland and his sub-4.00 K/9 and Jarrod Washburn. That line is crazy.
Good luck everybody.
Rangers +149, 1 unit to win 1.49 units
According to Grover, Boston's starter, Zink, is a knuckleballer like Wakefield, who he's replacing, except that Zink isn't any good. Sounds just like a pitcher who should be getting a -160 line.
Giants +103, 1 unit to win 1.03 units
Oswalt is no longer the All-Star he used to be, but he's still treated like one by the public. Lincecum = stud.
Mariners +180, 1 unit to win 1.80 units
73% of wagerline on the Angels and Jon Garland. I guess it's because the Angels are "the best team in baseball." There is no way there's that much difference between Garland and his sub-4.00 K/9 and Jarrod Washburn. That line is crazy.
Good luck everybody.
Monday, August 11, 2008
2008 College Football Letdown Spots - ACC Part 1
Of all the sports, it's always seemed to me that college football teams are more prone to emotional highs and lows than any other. Because there are so few games each season, and each one can be so crucial to a season, it stands to reason that 19-20 year olds especially would have weeks when their emotions are running higher than others, and sometimes in the weeks just before or just after a big game, you can catch a team in a letdown or look-ahead moment. Or, some weeks, teams are caught in between the two (the "sandwich" game).
Now, I'm not suggesting that anybody go out and bet against these teams on these dates automatically. Most importantly, of course, we don't know what the lines are yet, which some folks still think is an important aspect of sports handicapping. Also, because some of these games are months away, there's no way to know about injuries, suspensions, and the like. Also, I'm not necessarily predicting that the teams discussed will lose the game in question straight-up, but if you see one of these teams getting a little too much love from the linesmakers in these spots, it might afford you a good opportunity to cover the spread by going the other way. And even if you think the notion is complete bullshit, at least it gives us an excuse to start talking about college football, right?
OK, with all of the disclaimers out of the way, here's a dicey scheduling spot for each of the teams in the ACC Atlantic Division:
Boston College
- 10/25/08 at North Carolina -
A BC team that lost a lot of production to graduation (and apparently suffered some injuries in Spring practice) travels to Chapel Hill to face a UNC team that should be much improved, one week after a big home game vs. Virginia Tech (preseason ranking: #13) and the week before a home game vs. preseason ACC favorite, Clemson. To add to the look-ahead distraction, BC has the annual "Who's the toughest Catholic school" contest against Notre Dame right after the Clemson game. It's hard to imagine the BC kids getting up emotionally for the UNC game in the middle of that stretch.
Clemson
- 11/22/08 at Virginia -
The preseason favorite to win the conference and top-10-ranked team faces a tough emotional stretch of games once November comes along this year. On November 1st, the Tigers travel to BC looking to avenge one of their two home losses from last season, then the next week brings the Bowden at Florida State. The next week (11/15), a steep drop in the level of competition as they get to feast on Duke for their Homecoming game before traveling to Charlottesville on November 22, with their traditional rivalry game against the South Carolina Gamecocks looking the following week on the 29th. Most of the country might not pay much attention, but I was born and raised in South Carolina, and for the students at those schools and people who live in that state, the SC/Clemson rivalry is as heated as any other annual matchup that you can name.
Florida State
- 11/1/08 at Georgia Tech -
Not much explanation required here. The week before, hosting Virginia Tech, and the week after, hosting Clemson in the annual Bowden Bowl. Good luck focusing on the Yellow Jackets in between.
Maryland
- 11/15/08 vs. North Carolina -
This one was pretty easy, sandwiched in between a road game at Virginia Tech and a home game vs. Florida State. If you want a less obvious letdown spot, keep an eye out for the line on the September 20 contest vs. Eastern Michigan. Maryland won't lose this game, but sandwiched in between a non-conference game vs. Cal on 9/13 and their conference opener against Clemson on 9/27, Maryland may have a hard time covering a large spread that Saturday (the size of the spread will be affected, of course, by Maryland's performance in the Cal game). With Clemson on deck, Maryland would be wise to rest some starters in the second half of the EMU game if they get out in front early.
North Carolina State
- 9/20/08 vs. East Carolina -
It's difficult to find a letdown game for teams that are expected to suck (what do I with Duke?), but this might be the best chance to catch NC State as an overrated favorite, especially considering that NC State beat ECU on the road last year 34-20. The week before the game this year, the Wolfpack has a trip to Death Valley to face Clemson (a team everybody should be getting up for this year). Then, starting the week after the ECU game, NC State faces the triple look-ahead threat of home games vs. nationally-ranked South Florida (9/27), Coach O'Brien's former team (BC on 10/4), and then the Thursday night ESPN game vs. Florida State.
Wake Forest
- 9/27/08 vs. Navy -
Again, I'm not saying Wake will lose this game, but it's a good spot to find an over-inflated spread and the public all over the home team. This might sound familiar, but the Navy game is another sandwich spot between a road game at Florida State on 9/20 and a Thursday night home contest on 10/9 against guess who, Clemson.
Back in a couple of days with Coastal Division where we try to answer the age-old question: Can Duke have a letdown game in football, or is every game a letdown?
_
Now, I'm not suggesting that anybody go out and bet against these teams on these dates automatically. Most importantly, of course, we don't know what the lines are yet, which some folks still think is an important aspect of sports handicapping. Also, because some of these games are months away, there's no way to know about injuries, suspensions, and the like. Also, I'm not necessarily predicting that the teams discussed will lose the game in question straight-up, but if you see one of these teams getting a little too much love from the linesmakers in these spots, it might afford you a good opportunity to cover the spread by going the other way. And even if you think the notion is complete bullshit, at least it gives us an excuse to start talking about college football, right?
OK, with all of the disclaimers out of the way, here's a dicey scheduling spot for each of the teams in the ACC Atlantic Division:
Boston College
- 10/25/08 at North Carolina -
A BC team that lost a lot of production to graduation (and apparently suffered some injuries in Spring practice) travels to Chapel Hill to face a UNC team that should be much improved, one week after a big home game vs. Virginia Tech (preseason ranking: #13) and the week before a home game vs. preseason ACC favorite, Clemson. To add to the look-ahead distraction, BC has the annual "Who's the toughest Catholic school" contest against Notre Dame right after the Clemson game. It's hard to imagine the BC kids getting up emotionally for the UNC game in the middle of that stretch.
Clemson
- 11/22/08 at Virginia -
The preseason favorite to win the conference and top-10-ranked team faces a tough emotional stretch of games once November comes along this year. On November 1st, the Tigers travel to BC looking to avenge one of their two home losses from last season, then the next week brings the Bowden at Florida State. The next week (11/15), a steep drop in the level of competition as they get to feast on Duke for their Homecoming game before traveling to Charlottesville on November 22, with their traditional rivalry game against the South Carolina Gamecocks looking the following week on the 29th. Most of the country might not pay much attention, but I was born and raised in South Carolina, and for the students at those schools and people who live in that state, the SC/Clemson rivalry is as heated as any other annual matchup that you can name.
Florida State
- 11/1/08 at Georgia Tech -
Not much explanation required here. The week before, hosting Virginia Tech, and the week after, hosting Clemson in the annual Bowden Bowl. Good luck focusing on the Yellow Jackets in between.
Maryland
- 11/15/08 vs. North Carolina -
This one was pretty easy, sandwiched in between a road game at Virginia Tech and a home game vs. Florida State. If you want a less obvious letdown spot, keep an eye out for the line on the September 20 contest vs. Eastern Michigan. Maryland won't lose this game, but sandwiched in between a non-conference game vs. Cal on 9/13 and their conference opener against Clemson on 9/27, Maryland may have a hard time covering a large spread that Saturday (the size of the spread will be affected, of course, by Maryland's performance in the Cal game). With Clemson on deck, Maryland would be wise to rest some starters in the second half of the EMU game if they get out in front early.
North Carolina State
- 9/20/08 vs. East Carolina -
It's difficult to find a letdown game for teams that are expected to suck (what do I with Duke?), but this might be the best chance to catch NC State as an overrated favorite, especially considering that NC State beat ECU on the road last year 34-20. The week before the game this year, the Wolfpack has a trip to Death Valley to face Clemson (a team everybody should be getting up for this year). Then, starting the week after the ECU game, NC State faces the triple look-ahead threat of home games vs. nationally-ranked South Florida (9/27), Coach O'Brien's former team (BC on 10/4), and then the Thursday night ESPN game vs. Florida State.
Wake Forest
- 9/27/08 vs. Navy -
Again, I'm not saying Wake will lose this game, but it's a good spot to find an over-inflated spread and the public all over the home team. This might sound familiar, but the Navy game is another sandwich spot between a road game at Florida State on 9/20 and a Thursday night home contest on 10/9 against guess who, Clemson.
Back in a couple of days with Coastal Division where we try to answer the age-old question: Can Duke have a letdown game in football, or is every game a letdown?
_
Monday Baseball
Hope the squares enjoyed their big day yesterday. That was ugly. Today's card doesn't look much better. One for this afternoon:
Nationals +220 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2.20 units
I'm not gonna say David Bush sucks, because the last time I said something like that he went out and pitched the best game of his career, BUT he certainly hasn't done anything to deserve a line like this. Brewers aren't hitting well enough to justify it either. Ridiculous.
That might be it for today. A couple of leans tonight, but we haven't been able to agree on anything else yet. I like Croatia +5 in Olympic hoops tonight myself, but I don't think we're going to be getting involved with the Olympics unless there's a line out there that just looks crazy. Good luck everybody.
Nationals +220 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2.20 units
I'm not gonna say David Bush sucks, because the last time I said something like that he went out and pitched the best game of his career, BUT he certainly hasn't done anything to deserve a line like this. Brewers aren't hitting well enough to justify it either. Ridiculous.
That might be it for today. A couple of leans tonight, but we haven't been able to agree on anything else yet. I like Croatia +5 in Olympic hoops tonight myself, but I don't think we're going to be getting involved with the Olympics unless there's a line out there that just looks crazy. Good luck everybody.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Sunday Dogs
A little step in the right direction yesterday, we'll take it. Three for today, all lines from Matchbook (I think they're going to have to start paying us for all of these plugs):
Pirates +202, 1 unit to win 2.02 units
I've been saying it for days, the Phillies can't hit the ball recently. It's like the whole lineup is slumping at the same time. We're not buying that Moyer is going to have a sustained resurgence all of a sudden at 63 years old. Oh, and it's +202.
Yankees +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
We're always on alert for an opportunity to fade Saunders and his .246 BABIP, and feel a little lucky to be getting the chance to do so by backing a team that can hit. A little too lucky? We'll see.
Cardinals +133, 1 unit to win 1.33 units
Those lovable wagerline kids and their Cubs obsession. Carpenter has looked pretty good since his return from the DL, although obviously we're working with a small sample size here. His strikeout rate isn't where it used to be so far, but the way the Cards have been hitting (pounded the hell out of my fantasy team member, Zambrano, yesterday), we feel pretty good about fading the public and their favorite son, Dempster.
Pirates +202, 1 unit to win 2.02 units
I've been saying it for days, the Phillies can't hit the ball recently. It's like the whole lineup is slumping at the same time. We're not buying that Moyer is going to have a sustained resurgence all of a sudden at 63 years old. Oh, and it's +202.
Yankees +114, 1 unit to win 1.14 units
We're always on alert for an opportunity to fade Saunders and his .246 BABIP, and feel a little lucky to be getting the chance to do so by backing a team that can hit. A little too lucky? We'll see.
Cardinals +133, 1 unit to win 1.33 units
Those lovable wagerline kids and their Cubs obsession. Carpenter has looked pretty good since his return from the DL, although obviously we're working with a small sample size here. His strikeout rate isn't where it used to be so far, but the way the Cards have been hitting (pounded the hell out of my fantasy team member, Zambrano, yesterday), we feel pretty good about fading the public and their favorite son, Dempster.
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Saturday Night Baseball
Oy. Rough night/day. Just the facts today. Sorry to disappoint you with the lack of dumb jokes and inane commentary. Lines from Matchbook:
Atlanta Braves +150, 1 unit to win 1.5 units.
Pittsburgh Pirates +216, 1 unit to win 2.16 units.
And ... that's it. I looked for at least one more, but then I realized I was forcing the issue, which is never a good idea. Nats might be a decent play, but I'm a Nats fan and struggle mightily to evaluate them impartially.
Atlanta Braves +150, 1 unit to win 1.5 units.
Pittsburgh Pirates +216, 1 unit to win 2.16 units.
And ... that's it. I looked for at least one more, but then I realized I was forcing the issue, which is never a good idea. Nats might be a decent play, but I'm a Nats fan and struggle mightily to evaluate them impartially.
Friday, August 8, 2008
NFL Preseason - Day 2
We're probably not going to have a preseason (don't say "exhibition"!) pick every day, but we've been looking at this one for several days:
E-A-G-L-E-S +1 -108 (Matchbook), 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Word from Coach Reid is that the starters will play the first quarter & a half, the 2nd stringers will play a quarter & a half, and then the 3rd stringers (presumably led by Kevin Kolb) will play the 4th quarter. On the flip side, the Steelers' plan is to let the veterans play "a series or two" and then use the rest of the game to look at the new kids. Advantage Eagles. Plus, of course, the wagerline number has been higher than 60% on the Steelers for days (no matter what the line was).
E-A-G-L-E-S +1 -108 (Matchbook), 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Word from Coach Reid is that the starters will play the first quarter & a half, the 2nd stringers will play a quarter & a half, and then the 3rd stringers (presumably led by Kevin Kolb) will play the 4th quarter. On the flip side, the Steelers' plan is to let the veterans play "a series or two" and then use the rest of the game to look at the new kids. Advantage Eagles. Plus, of course, the wagerline number has been higher than 60% on the Steelers for days (no matter what the line was).
Five For Friday
I had 10-12 baseball leans early this morning, and luckily Grover was available to narrow it down to something sane. All lines from Matchbook:
A's +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
You got to know when hold 'em, know when to fold 'em ........ Kenny Rogers sucks ass. And not in the good way.
Pirates +169, 1 unit to win 1.69 units
Maholm pitching really well and the Phillies seem to be mired in a lineup-wide slump. BUT, 67% of wagerline folks would rather lay the big chalk with Blanton. As my pal, Grover, might say, "What. The. Fuck?"
Padres -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Remember a long time ago, like last season, when Peavy was a -180 or -200 favorite all the time? I know the Padres have their hitting woes, but the Rockies aren't exactly knocking the cover off the ball lately either. 61% of folks would rather have their money on Glendon freaking Rusch? Be my guest.
Braves +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units
Campillo is on an absolute tear, but I guess that won't matter today since I heard somebody say that the Braves can't win on the road.
Yankees +121, 1 unit to win 1.21 units
I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit........
Passed on a bunch of possibilities (Cards, 'Stros, Indians, etc.) which are now guaranteed winners. Back a little later with a preseason NFL pick. Good luck everybody.
A's +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
You got to know when hold 'em, know when to fold 'em ........ Kenny Rogers sucks ass. And not in the good way.
Pirates +169, 1 unit to win 1.69 units
Maholm pitching really well and the Phillies seem to be mired in a lineup-wide slump. BUT, 67% of wagerline folks would rather lay the big chalk with Blanton. As my pal, Grover, might say, "What. The. Fuck?"
Padres -113, 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Remember a long time ago, like last season, when Peavy was a -180 or -200 favorite all the time? I know the Padres have their hitting woes, but the Rockies aren't exactly knocking the cover off the ball lately either. 61% of folks would rather have their money on Glendon freaking Rusch? Be my guest.
Braves +107, 1 unit to win 1.07 units
Campillo is on an absolute tear, but I guess that won't matter today since I heard somebody say that the Braves can't win on the road.
Yankees +121, 1 unit to win 1.21 units
I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit........
Passed on a bunch of possibilities (Cards, 'Stros, Indians, etc.) which are now guaranteed winners. Back a little later with a preseason NFL pick. Good luck everybody.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
No Beisbol
We don't see anything we like tonight. Maybe a lean towards the Braves on the road, but eh. We'll take our nifty profit from the Marlins and cheer on the Ravens' practice squad as they take on the Patriots' practice squad tonight.
And in honor of the start of the Patriots' 2008-9 campaign:
How do I reeech theeese keeeeds?"
And in honor of the start of the Patriots' 2008-9 campaign:
How do I reeech theeese keeeeds?"
NFL Preseason - Day 1
We didn't have plans to get too involved in exhibition games, but can't pass on this one tonight:
Ravens +3.5 -105 (WSEX), 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Public has been on the Pats all week at around 61%, but the line has gone the other way, from Pats -5.5 down to -3.5. Throw in a good ol' fashioned 3-way QB competition in Baltimore and this line should give us good value tonight.
Ravens +3.5 -105 (WSEX), 1.05 units to win 1 unit
Public has been on the Pats all week at around 61%, but the line has gone the other way, from Pats -5.5 down to -3.5. Throw in a good ol' fashioned 3-way QB competition in Baltimore and this line should give us good value tonight.
Thursday Afternoon Longshot
Trying to get to minus 30 units by the end of the season. Well on our way. One for Thursday afternoon:
Marlins +199 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.99 units
I love Hamels, but he's been struggling a little bit lately, which gives the Marlins better than a +199 shot to catch up a game in the division race.
Good luck today.
Marlins +199 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.99 units
I love Hamels, but he's been struggling a little bit lately, which gives the Marlins better than a +199 shot to catch up a game in the division race.
Good luck today.
Our First Hero of the NFL Season
If you're looking for someone who's actually gonna praise Brett Favre this morning, you've come to the right place. Why? Well, as you may remember from my post about NFL Win Total bets, the Packers and the Vikings were two of my favorite targets for Over bets. With Brett spurning both the Pack and presumptive trade target Minnesota, I have to assume the value on both Over bets will skyrocket. Look for our first official Over/Under picks to be posted soon.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Wednesday Night
Busy afternoon at the office, so I'm going to go ahead and put these in now, without any extra BS. Lines from matchbook:
Marlins +136, 1 unit to win 1.36 units
Padres +176, 1 unit to win 1.76 units
_
Marlins +136, 1 unit to win 1.36 units
Padres +176, 1 unit to win 1.76 units
_
Wednesday Afternoon
Strange season. We keep making the value plays, but they're just not cashing. Here's another one for today:
Astros +166 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.66 units
I don't have a man-crush on Backe. Honestly. I don't even know what he looks like (although, in my dreams, he's totally cute).
[GROVER NOTE- I found this in Hambone's locker:]
Back later with a couple of night games. You know, if you have some money you want to throw away.
Astros +166 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.66 units
I don't have a man-crush on Backe. Honestly. I don't even know what he looks like (although, in my dreams, he's totally cute).
[GROVER NOTE- I found this in Hambone's locker:]
Back later with a couple of night games. You know, if you have some money you want to throw away.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
National League Tuesday
We couldn't agree on any AL games today, but we have plays on more than half of the games in the NL. Weird. First game is an afternoon contest, the rest tonight, and all lines from Matchbook:
Astros +242, 0.5 unit to win 1.21 units
Rich Harden is great (insert compulsory "when healthy" here), and Wandy is better at home, but holy shit, what is going on here? Two out of three wagerline pickers are laying the huge number with the favorite. Insanity.
Marlins +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units
Johnson has looked good since coming off the DL, and Moyer has been pitching over his head a little bit. All of a sudden, the feared Phillies lineup can't put the bat on the ball, especially vs. righties.
Reds -118, 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Hopefully, the Reds will let Bronson Arroyo pinch-hit if a clutch situation arises.
Dodgers -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
I know, another favorite, I don't know if we ever had 2 on the same day before. I guess we'll have to go open an account at sportsbook.com and start posting at covers now. Billingsley has been fantastic this year. Still not sold on Carpenter coming off the injury. Oh, and did anybody else hear about this Manny guy going to LA? They say he's playing well.
Nationals +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Betting on the Nats again. I also enjoy having my fingernails ripped off and that test at the eye doctor where they surprise you with a blast of air into your eyeball. It's the right play, but it's painful.
Good luck everybody. Back to the football preparation (and, um, you know, my job).
Astros +242, 0.5 unit to win 1.21 units
Rich Harden is great (insert compulsory "when healthy" here), and Wandy is better at home, but holy shit, what is going on here? Two out of three wagerline pickers are laying the huge number with the favorite. Insanity.
Marlins +134, 1 unit to win 1.34 units
Johnson has looked good since coming off the DL, and Moyer has been pitching over his head a little bit. All of a sudden, the feared Phillies lineup can't put the bat on the ball, especially vs. righties.
Reds -118, 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Hopefully, the Reds will let Bronson Arroyo pinch-hit if a clutch situation arises.
Dodgers -109, 1.09 units to win 1 unit
I know, another favorite, I don't know if we ever had 2 on the same day before. I guess we'll have to go open an account at sportsbook.com and start posting at covers now. Billingsley has been fantastic this year. Still not sold on Carpenter coming off the injury. Oh, and did anybody else hear about this Manny guy going to LA? They say he's playing well.
Nationals +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Betting on the Nats again. I also enjoy having my fingernails ripped off and that test at the eye doctor where they surprise you with a blast of air into your eyeball. It's the right play, but it's painful.
Good luck everybody. Back to the football preparation (and, um, you know, my job).
Monday, August 4, 2008
Monday Baseball Picks
If you're so inclined, please take a moment to review and comment on my Saturday post on NFL win total bets. I'm trying to gather opinions and come up with a good list for everyone before the season starts.
On to the Monday baseball:
Cincinnati Reds +120 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.2 units.
I gave up on Bronson Arroyo on my fantasy team months ago. I'm not sure why I still think he's worth risking money on, but at least I'm not alone. His peripherals still suggest he's been unlucky, and he's due for a few good outings. 63% of the public on the Brewers on the road.
Baltimore Orioles +200 (BetUS) 1 unit to win 2 units.
What the hell does BetUS have against the Orioles? At the end of the season I might have to go back and figure out how much money could have been made by simply playing the Orioles at BetUS 162 times.
Anyway, O's starter Sarfate does not inspire confidence, but hopefully his propensity to walk a lot of guys won't burn him too badly against the Angels, who can't be bothered to take pitches. Hey, if I was leading my division by 11.5 games in August, I'd be in a hurry to get out of the heat and back to my hotel room with a couple groupies, too. This is mostly a fade of Saunders, though. I think our repeated Saunders fades now officially satisfy the clinical requirements for masochism.
Pittsburgh Pirates +260 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.3 units.
This is nothing more than a "sanity" play. If they win at a number like +260 and we're not on it, it will haunt us for our remaining years. I'm in terrible health and Hambone is old as hell, so we're not talking about too many years, but it's still worth avoiding. I know the books are trying to sucker us with dreams of a big payday, but hey, I'm a dreamer. Public is closing in on 2-1 for the D-backs, which is somewhat reassuring.
On to the Monday baseball:
Cincinnati Reds +120 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.2 units.
I gave up on Bronson Arroyo on my fantasy team months ago. I'm not sure why I still think he's worth risking money on, but at least I'm not alone. His peripherals still suggest he's been unlucky, and he's due for a few good outings. 63% of the public on the Brewers on the road.
Baltimore Orioles +200 (BetUS) 1 unit to win 2 units.
What the hell does BetUS have against the Orioles? At the end of the season I might have to go back and figure out how much money could have been made by simply playing the Orioles at BetUS 162 times.
Anyway, O's starter Sarfate does not inspire confidence, but hopefully his propensity to walk a lot of guys won't burn him too badly against the Angels, who can't be bothered to take pitches. Hey, if I was leading my division by 11.5 games in August, I'd be in a hurry to get out of the heat and back to my hotel room with a couple groupies, too. This is mostly a fade of Saunders, though. I think our repeated Saunders fades now officially satisfy the clinical requirements for masochism.
Pittsburgh Pirates +260 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.3 units.
This is nothing more than a "sanity" play. If they win at a number like +260 and we're not on it, it will haunt us for our remaining years. I'm in terrible health and Hambone is old as hell, so we're not talking about too many years, but it's still worth avoiding. I know the books are trying to sucker us with dreams of a big payday, but hey, I'm a dreamer. Public is closing in on 2-1 for the D-backs, which is somewhat reassuring.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Sunday Baseball
No time for explanations today. All lines from Matchbook:
Rockies +126, 1 unit to win 1.26 units
Braves +133, 1 unit to win 1.33 units
Indians +160, 1 unit to win 1.60 units
Good luck everybody.
Rockies +126, 1 unit to win 1.26 units
Braves +133, 1 unit to win 1.33 units
Indians +160, 1 unit to win 1.60 units
Good luck everybody.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Pro Football Win Total Bets, Version 1.0
Tonight two of my childhood heroes, Art Monk and Darrell Green, are being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. And so, for the first time, I am sitting down and watching the induction ceremonies. It turns out that they are painfully boring, at least so far. But with my mind on football, my girlfriend and my dog both napping peacefully, and a beer in my hand, what better time to take our first look at the NFL win total bets?
Here's the basic methodology: I looked at the win total over/unders on WSEX, The Greek and 5 Dimes. Generally they had the same win totals and just minor variations in the prices. I compared these numbers to the Pro Football Prospectus win total projections. I looked more closely at any team whose projected win total differed by 1.5 wins or more from the number at the books. The juice varies wildly from team to team and obviously should also play a role.
Below I've listed what I like so far. Please share your thoughts in the comments section of via email. I know these bets can't be as smart as the MLB win total bets simply because there's a lot more left to chance over 16 games than there is over 162 games. But hopefully we can find substantial value.
Baltimore Ravens. Pro Football Prospectus projection: 8.5 wins, Best Line: Over 6.0 -115 (WSEX). Strength of Schedule: 17th.
Hambone and I got burned on an over bet on the Ravens last year, so I'm a little wary, but this is one of the biggest disparities on the board. A new head coach, an unsettled QB situation, and a lack of depth in the secondary also make me a little gun-shy. But a 2.5 win disparity is a 2.5 win disparity.
Carolina Panthers: PFP projects 9.5 wins. Best Line: Over 7.5 -160 (WSEX). SOS: 21st.
Tough schedule and, apparently, some chemistry issues which will leave them without their best offensive weapon for the first two weeks. But that loss may be irrelevant- I'd be shocked if they didn't end the first two weeks 1-1 regardless of Steve Smith's status, since they open at San Diego then host Chicago. I like this team a lot. I think the one-two punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will be effective, and the defense is balanced and deep. They struggled to get stops on third down last year, and PRP tells me that teams that have third-down struggles as compared with their first and second down performance generally improve their overall numbers the next year.
Cleveland Browns: PFP projects 6.3 wins. Best Line: Under 8 +110 (WSEX). SOS: 4th.
I agree with Pro Football Prospectus and pretty much every other NFL fan out there- I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Derek Anderson this year. To top that off, their defense was all over the board last year- the second-highest variance in the league. So, yeah, I have no fucking clue. The +110 certainly makes it tempting, but I'm wary. Let me know what you think, folks.
Dallas Cowboys: PFP projects 8.1 wins. Best line: Under 10.5 +110 (WSEX). SOS: 5th.
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Seattle Mariners, part II. Sign me up. The only reason to hesitate is that their success over the last two years has been in large due to uncanny good health, and the projections assume some regression on that, but it's possible their training staff is just that good. PFP actually talks about this a bit.
Detroit Lions: PFP projects 4.3 wins. Best line: Under 6.5 +110 (WSEX). SOS: 3rd.
Their playoff contention and 7-9 final record was the result of tremendous good luck and an amazingly weak schedule in the first half of the season. As you can see above, no such luck on the scheduling this year. If you think, as I do, that the Packers and the Vikings are contenders, but are wary of their QB situations, here's another way to approach the division right here.
Green Bay Packers: PFP projects 11.4 wins. Best line: Over 8.0 -130 (WSEX). SOS: 13th.
Most books have taken down their lines here for obvious reasons. Let's hope they trade Favre and the ESPN talking heads start trashing them. They have a great O-line, a better-than-average defense, and decent talent at the skill positions. Their front office has been so good at judging talent elsewhere that I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on Rodgers here. I like this, but it's probably worth waiting to see how the mess shakes out.
Minnesota Vikings: PFP projects 10.1 wins. Best line: Over 8.5 wins -125 (WSEX). SOS: 11th.
A lot of these come down to the fact that the lines reflect the public's overemphasis on the QB. Nowhere is that more apparent than here. PFP projects an 80% chance this team finishes with 9 or more wins. The only reason I see to hesitate is if you think Tarvaris Jackson can completely destroy an otherwise promising season. Or if you don't want to deal with the stress of a possible 0-2 start (at GB, home vs. IND).
Oakland Raiders: PFP projects 3.9 wins. Best line: Under 6.5 wins -160 (WSEX). SOS: 16h.
I gotta be honest with you, I just don't have much of a feel for this team at all. There's the obvious problem of evaluating a team with a QB drafted #1 overall about to start his first season under center. However, I think I'm willing to fade a team who is last in the fucking league at stopping the run, and subsequently decides to pass on the best DT prospect in years in the draft. What. The. Fuck.
Philadelphia Eagles: PFP projects 11.7 wins. Best line: Over 8.5 wins -160 (WSEX). SOS: 27th.
I know, I'm as surprised as you are. Caveat Emptor- PFP says their projections consistently forecast success for the Eagles, and the Eagles consistently underperform. Apparently they're the opposite of Ichiro, who consistently outperforms prediction tools. This one comes down just how much you think Asante Samuel will help, and whether you're willing to risk your money on Westbrook and McNabb's health.
Pittsburgh Steelers: PFP projects 7.2 wins. Best line: Under 9.0 wins -105 (WSEX). SOS: 1st.
I can always be persuaded otherwise, but I expect to pass on this one. It's clearly a function of their strength of schedule, which is always worth looking, but I'm not sure I can make a play that is based almost entirely on a SOS determination.
Seattle Seahawks: PFP projects 10.5 wins. Best line: Over 8.5 wins -165 (5 Dimes). SOS: 24th.
I just wanted to prove I was actually looking at sites other than WSEX. The defense has improved by leaps and bounds over the last few years, and this year looks to be more of the same. I have a hard time having faith in bald quarterbacks-consider it a mental block- but he keeps getting the job done. Apparently they've got a new O-line coach who is considered the league's best (came over from KC), so i don't think they'll miss a beat on the ground. The juice here is a problem, though.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: PFP projects 10.5 wins. Best line: Over 8.0 wins -130 (WSEX)> SOS: 23rd.
Another one complicated by the Favre uncertainty. As a bettor, I really hope he re-retires. It would create a lot more value for me. PFP projects an 83% chance this team finishes with 9 wins or better. Nothing wrong with that. The talent at the skill positions doesn't grab you, but then again, maybe that's why there's value. The O-line gives me pause, but it's not terrible. People really should start to give Gruden the credit he deserves- he's one of the best coaches in the league. If I could choose a guy to head my team, it would be him. You know, since the other candidate thinks the fans are a hurdle to success, not a reason to seek it.
Here's the basic methodology: I looked at the win total over/unders on WSEX, The Greek and 5 Dimes. Generally they had the same win totals and just minor variations in the prices. I compared these numbers to the Pro Football Prospectus win total projections. I looked more closely at any team whose projected win total differed by 1.5 wins or more from the number at the books. The juice varies wildly from team to team and obviously should also play a role.
Below I've listed what I like so far. Please share your thoughts in the comments section of via email. I know these bets can't be as smart as the MLB win total bets simply because there's a lot more left to chance over 16 games than there is over 162 games. But hopefully we can find substantial value.
Baltimore Ravens. Pro Football Prospectus projection: 8.5 wins, Best Line: Over 6.0 -115 (WSEX). Strength of Schedule: 17th.
Hambone and I got burned on an over bet on the Ravens last year, so I'm a little wary, but this is one of the biggest disparities on the board. A new head coach, an unsettled QB situation, and a lack of depth in the secondary also make me a little gun-shy. But a 2.5 win disparity is a 2.5 win disparity.
Carolina Panthers: PFP projects 9.5 wins. Best Line: Over 7.5 -160 (WSEX). SOS: 21st.
Tough schedule and, apparently, some chemistry issues which will leave them without their best offensive weapon for the first two weeks. But that loss may be irrelevant- I'd be shocked if they didn't end the first two weeks 1-1 regardless of Steve Smith's status, since they open at San Diego then host Chicago. I like this team a lot. I think the one-two punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will be effective, and the defense is balanced and deep. They struggled to get stops on third down last year, and PRP tells me that teams that have third-down struggles as compared with their first and second down performance generally improve their overall numbers the next year.
Cleveland Browns: PFP projects 6.3 wins. Best Line: Under 8 +110 (WSEX). SOS: 4th.
I agree with Pro Football Prospectus and pretty much every other NFL fan out there- I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Derek Anderson this year. To top that off, their defense was all over the board last year- the second-highest variance in the league. So, yeah, I have no fucking clue. The +110 certainly makes it tempting, but I'm wary. Let me know what you think, folks.
Dallas Cowboys: PFP projects 8.1 wins. Best line: Under 10.5 +110 (WSEX). SOS: 5th.
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Seattle Mariners, part II. Sign me up. The only reason to hesitate is that their success over the last two years has been in large due to uncanny good health, and the projections assume some regression on that, but it's possible their training staff is just that good. PFP actually talks about this a bit.
Detroit Lions: PFP projects 4.3 wins. Best line: Under 6.5 +110 (WSEX). SOS: 3rd.
Their playoff contention and 7-9 final record was the result of tremendous good luck and an amazingly weak schedule in the first half of the season. As you can see above, no such luck on the scheduling this year. If you think, as I do, that the Packers and the Vikings are contenders, but are wary of their QB situations, here's another way to approach the division right here.
Green Bay Packers: PFP projects 11.4 wins. Best line: Over 8.0 -130 (WSEX). SOS: 13th.
Most books have taken down their lines here for obvious reasons. Let's hope they trade Favre and the ESPN talking heads start trashing them. They have a great O-line, a better-than-average defense, and decent talent at the skill positions. Their front office has been so good at judging talent elsewhere that I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on Rodgers here. I like this, but it's probably worth waiting to see how the mess shakes out.
Minnesota Vikings: PFP projects 10.1 wins. Best line: Over 8.5 wins -125 (WSEX). SOS: 11th.
A lot of these come down to the fact that the lines reflect the public's overemphasis on the QB. Nowhere is that more apparent than here. PFP projects an 80% chance this team finishes with 9 or more wins. The only reason I see to hesitate is if you think Tarvaris Jackson can completely destroy an otherwise promising season. Or if you don't want to deal with the stress of a possible 0-2 start (at GB, home vs. IND).
Oakland Raiders: PFP projects 3.9 wins. Best line: Under 6.5 wins -160 (WSEX). SOS: 16h.
I gotta be honest with you, I just don't have much of a feel for this team at all. There's the obvious problem of evaluating a team with a QB drafted #1 overall about to start his first season under center. However, I think I'm willing to fade a team who is last in the fucking league at stopping the run, and subsequently decides to pass on the best DT prospect in years in the draft. What. The. Fuck.
Philadelphia Eagles: PFP projects 11.7 wins. Best line: Over 8.5 wins -160 (WSEX). SOS: 27th.
I know, I'm as surprised as you are. Caveat Emptor- PFP says their projections consistently forecast success for the Eagles, and the Eagles consistently underperform. Apparently they're the opposite of Ichiro, who consistently outperforms prediction tools. This one comes down just how much you think Asante Samuel will help, and whether you're willing to risk your money on Westbrook and McNabb's health.
Pittsburgh Steelers: PFP projects 7.2 wins. Best line: Under 9.0 wins -105 (WSEX). SOS: 1st.
I can always be persuaded otherwise, but I expect to pass on this one. It's clearly a function of their strength of schedule, which is always worth looking, but I'm not sure I can make a play that is based almost entirely on a SOS determination.
Seattle Seahawks: PFP projects 10.5 wins. Best line: Over 8.5 wins -165 (5 Dimes). SOS: 24th.
I just wanted to prove I was actually looking at sites other than WSEX. The defense has improved by leaps and bounds over the last few years, and this year looks to be more of the same. I have a hard time having faith in bald quarterbacks-consider it a mental block- but he keeps getting the job done. Apparently they've got a new O-line coach who is considered the league's best (came over from KC), so i don't think they'll miss a beat on the ground. The juice here is a problem, though.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: PFP projects 10.5 wins. Best line: Over 8.0 wins -130 (WSEX)> SOS: 23rd.
Another one complicated by the Favre uncertainty. As a bettor, I really hope he re-retires. It would create a lot more value for me. PFP projects an 83% chance this team finishes with 9 wins or better. Nothing wrong with that. The talent at the skill positions doesn't grab you, but then again, maybe that's why there's value. The O-line gives me pause, but it's not terrible. People really should start to give Gruden the credit he deserves- he's one of the best coaches in the league. If I could choose a guy to head my team, it would be him. You know, since the other candidate thinks the fans are a hurdle to success, not a reason to seek it.
Saturday Baseball
Apparently Hambone and other Internet Explorer users are having trouble accessing Blogger sites today. I find this fascinating because I had no idea people still used Internet Explorer. Here's today's picks:
Pittsburgh Pirates +177 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.77 units.
This number is way too high for a perfectly decent pitcher in Paul Maholm. I'd think twice about fading the Cubs at home if they were starting Zambrano, but for Lilly I'm on board.
Oakland A's +194 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.94 units.
Lester is consistently overpriced. Eveland's nothing special, but at +194, he's good enough for me.
Colorado Rockies +154 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.54 units.
The Rockies, finally healthy, are playing like the 2007 Rockies. Which is to say, decent and lucky. However, the public is still apparently valuing them like the early 2008 Rockies. And with Nolasco returning to earth, the price is right here.
San Francisco +210 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.05 units.
Zito facing Peavy. Half-unit out of principle.
Pittsburgh Pirates +177 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.77 units.
This number is way too high for a perfectly decent pitcher in Paul Maholm. I'd think twice about fading the Cubs at home if they were starting Zambrano, but for Lilly I'm on board.
Oakland A's +194 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.94 units.
Lester is consistently overpriced. Eveland's nothing special, but at +194, he's good enough for me.
Colorado Rockies +154 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 1.54 units.
The Rockies, finally healthy, are playing like the 2007 Rockies. Which is to say, decent and lucky. However, the public is still apparently valuing them like the early 2008 Rockies. And with Nolasco returning to earth, the price is right here.
San Francisco +210 (Matchbook), .5 units to win 1.05 units.
Zito facing Peavy. Half-unit out of principle.
Saturday Tennis
One for the Cincinnati semi-finals:
I. Karlovic +184 (Matchbook) over A. Murray, 0.50 units to win 0.92 units
Murray struggled against Moya yesterday, who had played a match and a half on Thursday (finished the upset vs. Davydenko in the morning that was cut short Wednesday night, and then had to play a new match vs. Andreev in the afternoon - oh, and he turns 32 yrs old this month). At times, Murray acted as if he might be injured in some way. Even if he's not, "Dr. Ivo" has been playing great, not just the huge serve that the 6-foot 10" player can smash but also volleying really well. Murray is better, but he's not playing -190 better.
I. Karlovic +184 (Matchbook) over A. Murray, 0.50 units to win 0.92 units
Murray struggled against Moya yesterday, who had played a match and a half on Thursday (finished the upset vs. Davydenko in the morning that was cut short Wednesday night, and then had to play a new match vs. Andreev in the afternoon - oh, and he turns 32 yrs old this month). At times, Murray acted as if he might be injured in some way. Even if he's not, "Dr. Ivo" has been playing great, not just the huge serve that the 6-foot 10" player can smash but also volleying really well. Murray is better, but he's not playing -190 better.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Friday Night Baseball
Not saying a word about the game in progress.......3 more for tonight, all lines from Matchbook:
Indians +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Sowers not looking so awful lately. How's that for a compliment? Game sure looks a lot closer than that line would suggest.
Astros +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Seems like I'm always backing Backe. I don't think I have any irrational reason to favor him, but it seems like the lines on him always look good. Weird.
Phillies -132, 1.32 units to win 1 unit
Grover thinks my man-crush is on Backe, but in reality, I think it might be Hamels. Lohse has been coming back to earth lately, so we'll take a rare shot with a favorite.
Good luck tonight everybody. Family in town this weekend, but there should be a couple of football-themed posts in the next couple of days. It's about to get real hectic in a few weeks.
Indians +148, 1 unit to win 1.48 units
Sowers not looking so awful lately. How's that for a compliment? Game sure looks a lot closer than that line would suggest.
Astros +104, 1 unit to win 1.04 units
Seems like I'm always backing Backe. I don't think I have any irrational reason to favor him, but it seems like the lines on him always look good. Weird.
Phillies -132, 1.32 units to win 1 unit
Grover thinks my man-crush is on Backe, but in reality, I think it might be Hamels. Lohse has been coming back to earth lately, so we'll take a rare shot with a favorite.
Good luck tonight everybody. Family in town this weekend, but there should be a couple of football-themed posts in the next couple of days. It's about to get real hectic in a few weeks.
Friday Afternoon Baseball
One game in the afternoon today.
Pirates +204 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2.04 units
Wanted to go ahead and get this one in now before somebody tells the bookies they've given Marquis -220. Feels like last weekend when we were on the Marlins every day at huge numbers against the Cubs (and won 2 of them).
Back later with tonight's picks. You know, so you can go the other way.....
Pirates +204 (Matchbook), 1 unit to win 2.04 units
Wanted to go ahead and get this one in now before somebody tells the bookies they've given Marquis -220. Feels like last weekend when we were on the Marlins every day at huge numbers against the Cubs (and won 2 of them).
Back later with tonight's picks. You know, so you can go the other way.....
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